 It hit the five day it rolled over it hit the five day again, you know to be determined, but I yeah I'd like to see Amazon confirm higher, right? Well, I mean here's a couple names Welcome to access a trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success profitability and longevity Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge Master your process and own your future Hey guys, good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access a trader calm week an update show Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good trading week a lot of carnage along the board We'll get to that in a second. Just a reminder Monday the equities markets are Are closed? Okay are closed in the celebration observance of Juneteenth If you are trying to log in on Monday, you're probably going to have a very very tough time So enjoy your three-day weekend get some rest put in a bunch of work Again, we are all students of this business It doesn't make a difference if you're trading for 20 years or 20 weeks. It's it's a never-ending journey Remember, there is no finish line. There is no trophy at the end There is no time to breathe and kind of sink it all in the markets are constantly changing Technology is playing a big part in its role And the most important part is you know as much as you think you got it you figured it out It's all good, right? There's a big curveball that comes along and really takes away your confidence and as traders And all we have is our confidence so continue to work continue to be a better friend to yourself Have some me time but the most important part is like we say every single day Especially towards the end of the video continue to stay in business and buy your time Especially if you are a new trader. So let's talk about the week So Wednesday, we had the 75 base basis point hike. This was something in the previous Six sessions that pals said wasn't going to happen, but they feel like well indeed it to happen That was rumors gonna happen and da da da da da if I only happened On Wednesday the good news. Well, I guess good news bad news going forward. He doesn't see Another aggressive Aggressive hike. He said maybe those hinting there's maybe one coming in July But the most important part is they feel like this is the more this is the most of the aggressive Moves from the Fed the most important part is our fearless leader. No names, right? Our fearless leader continues to tell us how great the economy is. Okay, we get it, right? It's it's the market continues to be great The the employment numbers are great. Everything is great gas prices are great Inflations are great the cost of living is great Apparently that somebody didn't tell that to the equities markets if you look At what we had as our final scoreboard towards in the week, you know, you saw some pretty big moves Yeah, S&P Plunged 5.8 percent. This is the biggest move down Since the pandemic March 2020 lows. It's kind of a big deal The Dow and the S the Dow and Nasdaq lost A little less than 5 percent. That's kind of a big deal and considering that we rallied on Friday. Those numbers would have been even More uglier I think the bigger, you know, if you're looking for direction if you're looking for some sort of light light at the end of the tunnel It's not gonna it's not gonna come this weekend. Let me let me tell you why I think for any market I think we could all agree with this whether you're trading for two minutes or or or 50 years I think that the hottest thing about a hot market or even a market that is going higher Is speculation, right? I think we could all agree when you see a stock, for example, go from two to 50 and people are chasing it That's called good, right? It's called feet. It's called the greed. It's called Speculation that's where the speculation money. So no market that ever is gonna have a stock going from two to 50 every single day Is going to be considered a capitulation market So when you have when you take right now Realistically the last what five years the biggest Speculation market out there, which is the crypto market, right? The stock market has been here for years and years and years, but the real crypto market from the mass public has been, you know Pretty popular. I would say probably the last three to five years Bitcoin Ethereum and all these alternative coins not that I am by far. I'm probably most less novice Speaker about the subject but but again Bitcoin represented Speculation money, Ethereum and all these alternate coins and NFTs and the metaverse all represents Speculation so there is not speculation especially from the demographics remember keep this in mind The majority of people that are investing or speculating in NFTs You know NFTs crypto and the other I'm saying majority that's in all but the majority are in that in that demographic from like 16 to 25 I think we could all agree on that and if if that market is being liquidated right now and right now I'm talking. I'm just looking at my phone right now. You have Bitcoin right now at 19,170 Ethereum dropped below a thousand and there is rumors that there are funds out there And this is kind of a no the most important part There's rumors that out there that there if there is a forced liquidation by the key quote unquote players in the Crypto market and these things can really take a very big hit again I don't know anything about the market these markets again. Don't shoot the messages I'm just kind of just what I'm reading this morning and that and again that will take out money from other places again If there is no speculation money flowing into the most speculative space speculative asset class that's out there Well, how can you be? How can you how can you turn around and say well the markets is gonna bottom out this week? Everything will be fine. It's all about the speculation money It's all about people wanting to get in something badly the FOMO. There is no FOMO right now There's no FOMO anywhere right now and the most important part is the key questions And this is where investors and especially new traders that start in the last three four years They continue to ask the question. Well, where's the bottom? Where's the bottom? And again, I have to remind everybody every single week especially in the weekend update This is the only video you watch throughout the weekend that this is only again. This is only month six, right? This is only month six of this decline and this decline has been pretty orally You could say what you want about the three to five hundred point days The eight hundred point days on the Dow the thousand point days in the Dow If you traded in this bear market versus the bear market from 2007 to 2009 You know, there's an extreme difference between this market. This market is very orderly. Okay? Very orderly very methodical. Yeah, you'll have its days It's aggressive sell-offs into the close but all all and all it's pretty organic, right? And really I've traded through 2007 2009 that shit was incredibly hard I mean really really tough because again, you had the biggest thing right in front of you and that was a potential Collapse right collapse of the financial system. It's a little bit different that we have now Yes, we could be bleeding a little by little But you weren't having major banks going out of business on a daily basis like a Bear Stearns Lehman brothers So forth and so on so it's a lot different and oh by the way the updates, right? You're going to have one day a week, you know two days out of two weeks that you're gonna have some pretty good updates as well Like we saw on Friday, which is which was a nice orderly kind of a melt-up on Friday. So it's different It's a lot different when I talk, you know, you know You're talking about apples and hand grenades here anybody who's traded through 2007 2008 and filing out the generational bottom of 2009 We'll tell you that market was incredibly tough compared to what we're seeing now But if you don't trade from the bear side if you don't trade from the you know From the quote-unquote dark side a lot of people like the point that you're gonna have a troubles either way because at the end of the day No matter how much we rally we're rallying underneath supply and that's the most important part So if you look at any single rally for the exception of the rally that started on 314 right, this is the biggest move in the last six months this three-week channel and ultimately it got stuffed at the Top of the channel and rolled over but once we lost the 50 day once again You can see here every single rally kind of ended the same way and even when the bulls got above the 20-day moving average That they couldn't do for three months, you know, it was a two-way consolidation gave it all up here But the common denominator is happens what happens in the short-term cycle and you can see this every single time They get stuck at the five-day moving average no matter how impressive the run was from the previous day They kind of roll over so this is the last one we had What three days ago right on the Fed it tested the five-day moving average rolled over and we had a pretty good rally on Friday You know pretty good for a rally on Friday got rejected off the five-day moving average if you guys remember the Wednesday video I said look, you know despite this, you know despite this move and I'd like to see a second They run remember I'd like to see a second. They run doesn't mean we're gonna get it Well, the most important part of that video was I'm kind of very I'm kind of skeptical, right? That's kind of simple because again, we got rejected Wednesday off the five-day moving average You could take literally that recording and take it into today. Yeah, we had a nice little run Into the five-day moving average on Friday, but but again, how can you possibly get excited? How can you feel all good inside of it again? If you if you have documented evidence all across the board, especially Getting rejected anywhere look look at the five-day moving average anywhere off the five-day got rejected here Got rejected here got rejected here. How can you turn around say? Oh, I'm definitely bullish on Monday. The market is great. The economy great crypto is rallying. Everything is great, right? You can't that's the most important part and again, we we try to let's say we I try to record this video Based on a non buys, right? It's just again. I'm not a bull. I'm not a bear I'm just I'm realistic I trade from both sides of the market and when the market is above supply, right or above demand you go long Right you go long and risk is on when you're below demand, right or below supply, right? And we are way below supply. Yeah, you can have days at the market rallies But again, I said this time and time again There's a difference between a stock moving up like we saw a bunch of stocks going up on Friday Then the stocks going high right big difference because if stock goes from 100 to 70 and one day go from 70 to 73 Is it going higher or is it going up? Right? You follow what I'm saying here. So my point is going into this week It's me very very tough, especially if you have any type of forced liquidations in the crypto market And again, that does represent Speculation money flow. It's gonna be very very tough for the market to turn around and be like well Speculation money is coming out of this asset, but it's gonna go roll into the stock market It's me very very tough to kind of convince Longer-term investors or short-term traders then that's the result. Is it possible? Remember, it's always possible. We could have a follow-through right and again like like the same thing I said on Wednesday is the same thing. I'm gonna say today I would like to see a day to follow through right because again the problem is When you do have a rally in a bear market, okay? The next day remember the rally was the stocks are closer to their upper channel for the previous day than the lower channel So it's gonna take an extra day for them to get back to the lower channel to get massive values They could break daily lows. So if you look for example names like Amazon, right? And they all look the same, right? If you look at Amazon, would you like to see a day to rally? Of course, because again, look what happened last time it hit the five-day it rolled over it hit the five-day again You know to be determined, but yeah, I'd like to see Amazon confirm higher, right? I mean, here's a couple names. Let me just show you guys a couple names of what I'm kind of referring to so Let me show you guys a couple of names that I'm referring to bear with me a second Right, so you got names like Amazon. Is it possible to have a day to run? Yes, and I'd like to see Amazon confirm the five-day moving average and test this area here. Nvidia, you know same thing, right? It's the all of these are gonna have exactly the same charts You don't have to go through a thousand different charts and say this one looks good. That one looks okay That one looks good. They're all gonna look exactly the same They all are going to mirror the NASDAQ 100. They're all going to mirror the cues So if the video looks like this and Amazon's gonna look like this that means Apple's gonna look like this It means Microsoft is gonna look like this. It means Facebook or meta is gonna look like this as well So it's it doesn't take a lot if they if one go they all go if one sells they're all gonna sell So this is a more of a of a reference point that if we are going to rally on Monday and again I'm incredibly skeptical of that but again at least I'm prepared I want to be in the names that if they do rally I want to have being the names that could rally for four five ten fifteen dollars and not forty fifty sixty eighty cents And that's why again names like NVIDIA if we confirm I'm interested names like Amazon if we confirm although Amazon is not the You know, it's not the fifty sixty dollar mover anymore like fifty cents is like a it's like a herculean effort It's like it's like passing a kidney stone. That's what it feels like to get fifty cents on Amazon these days But at least if Amazon could go you could take obviously larger size And if it starts confirming above the five-day moving average Maybe have a day two a name like meta that had a lot of really good option flow come in on Monday A little bit longer term expiration but really aggressive six and seven figure bets again same chart If it gets above the fifty the five-day moving average again, maybe we have a day to run So again watch that as well. There's one couple of cool looking little smaller charts I want to kind of bring to your attention guys. Look at this little stock allo I don't know what this thing is. Look at the volume surge on this thing, right? Look at any nice looking chart here. Look at the weekly view on this thing Right. Look at the weekly view on this allo I don't know what the hell this thing is before you guys who trade non beta keep an eye on this thing This thing starts building above this weekly channel. Maybe this thing could go also a recent IPO That looks interesting Look at this beat lco. Obviously, it's not going to be a weekly view. Obviously, there's nothing good about that But if you look at the daily view right at it it premiered or debuted at $20 went all the way down to 13 Maybe needs one or two more days, but if it could get above this channel here Maybe it gets a run to 18 19 dollars if again if the market is pretty good continues to add good Tesla all over the place here some good long some good shorts, but again, you could see the downward bias here Again, same play here as amazon the video meta apple Anything right it stopped at the five days. So if it confirms the five days, it's going to go higher If it confirms this macro channel, there's a lot of room down some pretty aggressive put buying came in This week they came in for the 600s. They came in for the 500s for the 550s So again, it's going to be very very interesting. So going into this week I do like a lot of things long if they confirm again, I'm very very skeptical They will but if that happens at least we are prepared But if they start losing their bottom channels, obviously, I will have no hesitation Start taking down the bottom channels and resume the downtrend. So that's it. That's it Sometimes sometimes you have to be a little bit more thought provoking Sometimes you got to look at the chart as a realist But the most important part is look at the market from the market that you have Not the market that you want guys stay blessed have a great great rest Enjoy the weekend and I will see you all on Tuesday. God bless. Take care