 So we're going to have a quick look through the risk warning screens here before we kick off with the actual webinar. Any questions at all? Please send them through the chat or Q&A boxes there and I'm happy to give my take on any particular market you wanted to look at, setups that you were looking at, general questions. Happy to discuss it all. The webinar is going to take about half an hour and we're going to cover the major indices, currencies and commodities that are some of the more popular instruments for CMC markets clients. There's quite a lot going on this week actually, as if it wasn't a fun enough end to last week that we talked about the ECB meeting as being an important one, we said that probably there wasn't going to be any action taken but there was going to be some sort of dovish commentary, what we nor many suspected was quite how dovish it would be, essentially a fairly overt statement saying that there is going to be more done at the December meeting. That's at least how the market has taken it anyway and even though the exact wording was a little bit more muddled, it was still fairly overt and I think there would be definitely confusion and a fair amount of disappointment where the ECB not at least going to do something at the December meeting which would potentially be, since it was discussed at this last meeting, rather than the, like I hadn't done in previous meetings, was a cut to the deposit rate. What we're talking about is let's pull up the old Euro-U.S. dollar chart, fairly spectacular drop here in the Euro. Not easy, not difficult to guess which day it was in which Mr. Draghi held his press conference. I believe over 200 pits that day, certainly in that vicinity, quite a big drop and through some pretty key support levels to my mind for the Euro, definitely a game-changing press conference. Obviously, the following day, a little continuation of the move, Euro largely just a continuation of the ECB announcement, but the markets, if we have a quick switch over and just get a general feel for what's been happening in the last few days, jump over to the German DAX as probably a nice prominent example. Big breakout of this consolidation area with some really strong moves on Thursday and Friday following almost nothing happening the rest of the week, ECB and on Friday China announced a cut to its interest rates and a cut to its bank reserve ratio, so just generally stimulus being hinted at by the ECB and actually introduced by the People's Bank of China. This week still central banks in focus unfortunately, at least we know where to look, at least we know where the source of the directional moves are coming from. It's really very central bank related. On Wednesday is really the big one because that's when the Federal Reserve meet. And then also on late Thursday slash early Friday, depending on where you are, we've got the Bank of Japan. So there is some speculation that there could be some extra stimulus announced from the Bank of Japan for the first time in quite a while. It's been played down a bit in Japanese media overnight. My suspicion is probably they're not going to do anything. One of the simple reasons for that is the Bank of Japan already own about half of the net issuance of JCBs, so they basically own half of the Japanese government bond market. So how much more can they really buy? Already at the current pace of buying, they're going to start running into troubles of actually being able to buy their quota of bonds because they're just cannibalizing the whole market. It doesn't seem sustainable to me and I think probably the Bank of Japan are aware of that, but they obviously don't want to kind of give that away for fear that people will just start flooding out of the market. So probably an outside chance, I would say, of the Bank of Japan doing anything. I guess while we're talking about that, we can have a little skip over to the Dolly Yen chart. Dolly Yen's been a really great sideways market we've been mentioning for the past few weeks in these webinars. Signs that may be a breakout's about to take place, been capped by the RSI resistance at the sort of 63-type level. We did get a break through this sort of intraday, sort of intracanel resistance around 121.20. This one here is that August 31st peak that we really need to close above, which we didn't quite manage on Friday to conclude that we actually are going to break out to the top side of this range. And surprise surprise, that breakout's probably not going to take place until we're through Wednesday and we know what the Federal Reserve's going to do. So on that front, I think most likely, if I'm not going to do anything, two simple reasons really that they haven't signalled that they're going to do anything. As of yet, it would be a very badly signalled move if they were to hike in August. No one really expects it and there's not a press conference. So if they did do it, they wouldn't be able to explain it. So it's not expected and they wouldn't be able to explain it. So those two together could trigger a fair amount of market volatility, which this Fed has been fairly shy of creating. So I don't think anything's going to happen in October. But obviously, again, it comes down to what they say in the statement. So do they really heavily hint that December's on the table? Or do they suggest that more do they leave it very much unchanged from the previous meeting? That's a distinct possibility. Or do they sort of say that it actually conditions it deteriorated a bit and do they just fully take maybe December off the table, take a 2015 rate hike off the table? What's said in that statement will be key as to whether we can see this breakout on the end and also to a large extent, no, there's breakouts in like the DAX, et cetera. So I think there are some other reports to watch out for. It's the US GDP on Thursday. Hold on, is there? My mind has escaped to me as to whether it's the UK GDP tomorrow. Yep, thought it was. And then tomorrow's quite a big one in general. US consumer confidence and durable goods and Tuesday. None of them gain changes, but big reports. It's certainly worth watching out for, especially in the currency space. And as I mentioned, there's the CPI for the Eurozone on Friday. Obviously, in the context of what the ECB had just said, that they're going to reassess the level of easing or level of accommodation in December. One of the big things they'll be assessing is what inflation is. That's the main gauge of inflation. That one will be huge. If it's another month of deflation, pretty strong chances, I would say, that they're going to do something in December. If it pulls back out of deflation, there's just low inflation again. Then I think that probably there's an increasing chance that they don't do anything in December or maybe just talk again and push things out into the following year. So that will be a big report to end the week on. And then just a buy-the-buy for over the weekend, there's Chinese manufacturing PMIs. That Chinese data is always a bit, potentially tumultuous in markets. Obviously, I think one of the interesting things today is why we're day and why Asian markets were down today is that the Premier of China came out over the weekend sort of saying, well, we never said we're going to do everything we can to hit 7%. We're just aiming for a general zone of growth, growth within certain bounds. So that wasn't taken too well. Maybe suggestion that there isn't massive stimulus coming down the line following this rate cut. So let's get a bit more coordinated here. I think we'll just start with the indices since that was just the most interesting market simply towards the end of the week. Let's look at the footsie, which actually was the most underwhelming of them all. Obviously, the UK is not in the Eurozone. Thankfully. But on this occasion, you know, the downside was that the stock market didn't participate in the rally. So a bit of a kind of message to start to look at, but I tried to get to strip it down to everything that I think is relevant. We're below this 200-day moving average. So all these moves higher have distinct risk while below that 200-day moving average that a lot of people judge as the longer-term trend. So we had this kind of double-boss type formation. We broke out, retested, looking good from there, big, strong move higher. A rising three-methods type candlestick formation here, also fairly bullish, and we've closed above. So all fairly bullish, but just this July 27th low, which was quite a big one for a lot of the indices globally, has capped the advance, also goes alongside with that 6,500 level, and we closed back down in the vicinity of this 50% level. So we haven't really entirely sealed the deal on getting through the 50% through an actual level on the UK 100 yet. And there is some resistance above from this long-term broken trend line, which I can scale out and show you on the weekly chart. I mean, it's only connecting by two points, but it's two major points. And I think a few people were watching it, and there's a matching one, believe it's on the DAX, that is quite similar, and the two may reinforce each other. And then above that, we've got the 61.8% through an actual. I mean, given the consolidation that we've had here at the 50%, I suspect should we get to the 61.8%, we'll get through the 200-day moving average. Would be my suspicion. Probably since he's been so dominated by commodities of late, it might take the Fed hold off on the raising rates and commodities rally off that. That commodity rally should be pretty helpful to the FIDC and help us get up there. That's a potential scenario. So bullish trend, a few candle patterns, you know, just about closing through that resistance in the 50% level, but still not concretely out of this sideways consolidation. I'll just slip back into the consolidation phase, but I think particularly if we hold above this 6.309-ish, whatever the low was there, 6.306.52, for something about that, we're looking pretty good to push up into the 200-day moving average, I think. The overall risk, I'll switch over to the Germany 30 now, but I would say the overall risk factor that we're facing here is that this big, sharp rally has been very sharp, and that's very much a characteristic of a bear market rally. You know, in a bull market, it's normally just a steady grind higher up the stairs and down the elevator, they tend to say, down the lift. So, you know, massive surges to the upside are more something you see during a bear market as corrections to the downtrend versus something you see in a nice, comfortable uptrend as we saw towards the sort of, you know, the later part of 2014 when we're just making new record highs every week in the S&P Fund and it was just all very steady. We're not quite in the same environment now, obviously. So the risk is that this is just a bear market rally and when we get much beyond these 200-day moving averages, we're just going to roll over and crash down again. So that's what I definitely suggest to you. Even though you don't trade directly off the 200-day moving average, but just be aware of where we're positioned in terms of that. So all that being said, pretty much, I mean, this is a double-bottom pattern, I think, for most people's definition in the Germany fair, see the neckline is conservatively, sorry, it's not slightly more aggressively, but more obviously, I would say, at the sort of 10-500 level. So I've used the Fibonacci extension tool extended across here and then up to there to put a 100% extension of that height of that pattern right back at this zone of potential resistance from these peaks. So confluence of these three peaks resistance plus the objective makes it entirely feasible that we get up there, which would be quite a big leg higher from here, pretty much a thousand points. That projection from current level was 10-800 up to 11-800. So that would be big, but obviously we've got a few things to get through. Again, it's this July 27 peak that I mentioned in the FTSE. It's the same level here in the Germany fairty, and in the Germany fairty, we're just below this 200-day moving average which comes in at just about the same level. We've pushed through the 50% of the Germany fairty of not the slightly different levels I'm considering here. This is from the peak. So we're stopping here at the 50 level just as we are in the FTSE on this longer-term level, but just taking it from this lower peak, you can see we're sitting at a 61.8. So an interesting confluence of resistance here, and I think it's part of why we're stalling out a bit. Perhaps worth leaving that there. RSI into an overbought area. So it's out of this kind of bearish range that we were in, characterised by this red area. So risk of a pullback, obviously, for an overbought area, but also signs that we're pushing into a bull market, a bull trend, just pop over to the US. So again, pretty monumental moves. The US markets have been stronger leading into last week, but you can see that it's the same thing across most global markets. Just no movement whatsoever. I mean, you'll know if you were trading it for the first three days, Friday the previous week, nothing, and then just ECB, China, boom, boom, boom. US also had the good fortunes of some pretty strong earnings from the tech stocks. The most surprising one was Microsoft, which went up 10%. You don't normally expect moves of 10% in Microsoft stock. That's the ultimate example. I mean, not the ultimate, but one of the primary examples of a stable blue chip stock carrying out the sort of move that you would expect in something more like Netflix. You know, high growth momentum stock. So that was surprising to see and carried the whole market higher. I mean, the gains in Microsoft alone represented about one-fifth of the gains of the Dow Jones industrial average, so the US 30 that we're looking at here. So we just peeped above the 200-day moving average, so obviously in the European markets, just a little bit below it. And I would characterize the sort of general resistance zone as where we are sitting right now, based on these previous lows from 7th of May and the 16th of June. Right the way up to this little peak right here, I think, as a zone of resistance, and it does seem to sort of correlate with this declining trend language. I wouldn't put too much stock in. Obviously, you know, we've done this, so it's not like this has been a consistent trend, but still, it is an extra factor to consider why gains could be limited in this area, and if we push through that area, why the gains could get sustained. The question I've just got through is, are we going to see a downturn in the US 30? Well, I certainly wish I knew. This is a similar answer to, you know, what is said more broadly is that the risk is for all these global indices is this is a bear market rally and that we roll over before we get to the all-time peaks. So obviously that's the peak of the market here whenever it was, the 18th of May, 90th of May. So, you know, anywhere below there, we could still get all the way up to that peak and roll over and, you know, we wouldn't be into the territory of a new uptrend. And obviously, even that rule doesn't particularly hold, you can get a false break higher and then roll over. So it depends on the timeframe from which you're trading and how much risk you're willing to tolerate. This area I'm highlighting is a potential area in which the market could roll over. I think if we get through there, we probably do push somewhere up into the record highs. I would imagine we've got to see a bigger correction before we get there. There's going to be a lot of people that were very rattled during this downturn, and it's going to be difficult to overcome those levels. So I would imagine that we fall off to some decent extent and recover before turning up to new highs if indeed we ever do so. So I think, you know, in the short term, basically the trend is strongly higher and it's risky selling into it. But look for signs of weakness in these key areas and just be distinctly aware that there's not an outright bull market right now. We certainly could roll over any time. Okay, if we're all good there, let's switch across to the commodity market. We did a bit sluggish. We've actually pulled up a bit now. Haven't caught anything particularly across the wires as to why copper's jumped and what about 0.2 earlier. Now it's about 1%. We're best starting ourselves with this weekly chart in copper. So this is a sort of fairly rough-looking down channel that we have in copper. And what we're trying to do at the moment is push off the bottom of this channel. Now so far we sort of successfully have done so, but at the double bottom, potentially setting up here, which I've been mentioning since that first week. And now what's happening is that we're grinding into this, this declining trend line here. You can see it better on the weekly chart, on the daily chart, sorry. You can see we've had quite a few touches now. Are we on fifth? One, two, three, four, five, yeah. So, you know, a sixth touch, fifth or sixth touch really often precedes a break because, yes, the line is getting stronger, the number of breaks it is, but it just means that eventually when there is a break, it's that much more significant. And the line can't hold it that many times. So I think probably the option here is to look for that break of that declining trend line because you need a bit of confirmation because still we are below this 200-day moving average and we failed to even take out this 17th to September peak yet. So until we get above there, putting what is something along the lines of a double bottom, break this declining trend line would be the first sign, break of the double bottom neckline at 250 would be the next sign that we're pushing higher in copper. Just mentioned copper guy, I think, because of the moves today. Gold, you know, this should look pretty different by the end of this week. I would imagine, you know, gold is pretty orientated around what the Fed's doing at the moment. There are obviously longer term looking fairly weak on the idea that the Fed is going to raise rates and people won't really want precious metals anymore. But obviously broken this declining trend line, which is quite significant, I think, and still looking for the possibility of getting up to this longer term resistance level up here at the sort of 290 just shade, sorry, so 230 kind of area. So if you could sort of look through what's going on in this chart at the moment. So this would have been a very sort of aggressive bounce, which we got some signs of, but it was never really going to happen. We got just above this resistance. If we just popped high off there, that would have been a real acceleration of the trend. Gold doesn't typically act that way. It tends to be a bit more wide ranging. And, you know, and then all suddenly blast higher, but then it will drift higher, drift down into a range again. So sometimes it's difficult to catch it. You kind of need to pick these break out areas when they first happen. The second touch of the break area often doesn't work. So we've failed at the first one. We're coming down to the second peak here from the 24th of September. And we've come off just there around the 1160 area, sort of something along the lines of a long legged doji candlestick there. Basically, you're showing a lot of indecision around this 200 day moving average. So what we're looking for is kind of, you know, the nicest trends are when you have high, high, high low, which ends at the previous high, you know, high drops down to the peak again, that kind of thing. I think it's, you know, no one really expects the Fed to do anything and so we could get a bouncing goal, but I'm not sure how far it's going to get sustained because it's kind of already baked in that they're not going to do anything and if they keep signalling that they want to do something and December's still on the table, if they keep signalling that, then I think we could actually eventually see a dropping goal back down towards the bottom of the channel. So keep an eye on this kind of area. Potentially the trend line, where it last touched the trend line is some kind of support, but actually the broken trend line would, you know, depending on when we get there, could end up matching this rising channel base as well. So that would be an opportunity once we get down there. Here's a slightly higher risk opportunity, but obviously this is where we sit before the Fed. So, you know, if you are trading off this support area, you know, you're trading off the support, you're before a big event. You just got to be aware that the support can break or can hold. You know, you can't really predict it before the event. You can just make some summations. So the, I believe I looked at WTI this time around, just because I thought this was pretty interesting here. Basically, this was a really solid area of support for WTI, this base here, 45 level in the RSI, and that broke when we proceeded to go down and touch the bottom of the trend. We had a little false breakout at the bottom. It wasn't really, you know, it's a bit hard to kind of draw these kind of trend lines, but depending on how you've drawn this, I don't think we've actually seen a close below the channel here. But given the fact that we came off the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fib from the peak here in June, compliments of resistance here, and we've just fallen away, and it's starting to look now that actually, you know, maybe we're going to break this channel as well. And if we do break this channel, and then secondly, you know, these are the two lows from back in the start of the year, this January, first January low, it's kind of what we've been dealing with since, you know, that was a massive decline, put in that low, consolidated broke a little bit below, made a big bounce, broke a bit further below, and the bounce since has been less convincing. So it does sort of, you know, longer-term trend is still much, very much down in oil and looks like this consolidation might be about to end. You know, the channel is the first sign. I think the low from January at, what is it, 4350, is, you know, that's the kind of line in the sand if you like. Had a lot of closers above around the 44 vicinity as well, so close below 44 would also be more aggressive belief that this is going to break lower. And we've got a couple of minutes to go to the end here, so any final cues you might have, just feel free to let me know. We haven't left a lot of time for the currencies, but I will cruise through that. We obviously look to this Euro chart. Let's cruise up to the weekly chart, which I've been referencing a lot recently. Here you can just most clearly see the triangle. I did actually have a declining line through here for a while, but I think actually this 1460 level is really kind of the key one. And we've fallen away from that shooting star candlestick on the weekly chart and then plummeted the following week below the rising trend line here. And it's looking pretty soft for the Euro at the moment. And, you know, whatever technique you do use to trigger entries in the market, you know, it looks like, according to this triangle pattern at least, that the short side would be the best side to take those triggers. Next obvious area of support is this 108 to 10820 top vicinity from these lows in May and July. And so that would put us in a kind of choppy looking rectangle pattern if we held around there. But, you know, trend line broken there, longer term trend line broken there. You know, that was a significant move last week. Obviously it can retrace, but I think the fact we've closed through there on the week as well as the day is a strong bearish sign. Cable also failed at 155 a couple of times. I've been highlighting this broken rising trend line, which, you know, had we sort of broken above their successfully recessed day RSI there, could, you know, and then broken above this defining price trend line would have been a good trigger long, but that just didn't happen. And we had this shooting star, big daily reversal on the ECB Thursday. We had some good UK data on the Thursday, but that just got completely eclipsed by the ECB action. And so the dollar rose really across the board as the main counter to the euro and the pound just kind of sunk alongside the other European currencies and other major global currencies. So this trend line is actually, from looking like it could have broken based on the RSI, it actually held pretty well. And so this is basically a broken long signal, which, you know, if you had any trades trading off that break long, obviously at a loss now, opens up some opportunities to the downside now. Quick here with Dolly Yen. We've already looked at this briefly as well. And I think I did mention that, you know, we're basically still inside that channel and a break above here looks more likely now, but we need to wait for that really to be more conclusive that we've actually got out of this choppy sideways range for the moment. For the moment, the same tactic has been working, you know, since late August, selling at the top of the range is working. Okay, so that's the end of this weekly webinar, the actual recording. Scott, we've found another question here in the chat room. I'll answer that, but I'll stop the recording first and then answer that. And whoever wants to stick around, feel free. So for those, all those have to leave. Thanks very much for attending and good luck with trading this week.