 Hello everybody, and I'm quite grateful to present some of my preliminary results of my PhD thesis. So I will show a little bit of settlement patterns in my research area, and I'm using almost the same methods like Knut for a pattern analysis, so color-based density, and also with DK in the background to interpret a little bit more. I will also have a quick look at the total distribution, not only the settlements, but everything that we have from my different time sizes. And then I will do a predictive modeling, but at this stage it's more for questions about why my data is a pattern like this. It's not so much about where I have to look in the future to find new settlements. That is something for the future. So my thesis is part of the Beethoven project. It's a project that's supported by the Polish National Science Center and the German Research Foundation, and based at the University of Kiel and the University of Poznan. It's about the late Neolithic and early Bronze Age developments in the southwest body area, and especially about the question why did Pushebo, so we heard about it earlier from Lüter, this Pushebo spot of settlement, and Wendy Mauer, that's quite famous I think, by our cemetery of the early Bronze Age, why does such power structure appear, in my case more or less, why do they not appear in our region. So we are in Northern Germany, that's Mecklenburg-Preskomerania and Northern Brandenburg for now, and the whole research project is also interested in the North Polish part. So I will present to you now some results from Mecklenburg-Preskomerania and Northern Brandenburg and we'll compare it to the small kosher addiction with Gwenki Mauer and Pushebo inside. I think we can see it really good. Here a small quality table, I will compare my early Bronze Age, so from 2200 around to 2600-2500, of Mecklenburg and Northern Brandenburg, with the middle Bronze Age for older Bronze Age, so period 2 and 3 after Monterios, from 2500 to 2100. It's more or less the same chronology in Greater Poland around Pushebo, so from 2200 to 1600, to early Bronze Age and from 2600 to 1100. Yes, the middle Bronze Age. My initial question was during the middle Bronze Age, I have really few houses in my area, but in the preceding early Bronze Age there are now quite a few houses. So the question is, why is that so? And how we can compare it? So I will compare it with the Corde Grail culture or Cine Grail culture, because that's also the period where we have not so much houses, but a lot of finds otherwise. So first, the two dots in my love German area are settlements of the Corde Grail culture. We have around 102. The squares are the settlements of the early Bronze Age and the orange pentagons are settlements of the older Bronze Age, middle Bronze Age. From the early Bronze Age and the older Bronze Age we have around 50 settlements. So let's look at the current density estimation for the Corde Grail culture. We have a high density in the Lower Oda region, so the Oda-Schnurke Damit is here based and also in the southwest, but not so much at the coast. That changes to the early Bronze Age, where we have two settlement centers in the northwest of Mecklenburg around the Lake Green and in the area of the River Vanu, south of Rostock, so here. And as you can see, quite a few settlements in the Lower Oda region. So there's a real shift. Looking at now at all the Bronze Age or middle Bronze Age, we have in the northwest quite the same pattern, but we can also see at the coast it gets more important, especially here around the Strelasund in Rüben. What we can also see, if you compare the values of the current density estimation, so the distribution of settlements per square kilometer, is that there's a real decrease of density from the early Bronze Age to the middle Bronze Age. So the settlements of the middle Bronze Age are quite more dispersed compared to the early Bronze Age. If we compare it with the total distribution, we can see that there's more or less the same compared with every spray find, burial and hoard we can find to the distribution of that. For the early Bronze Age, also for the middle Bronze Age, but we have also this real concentration on lose bloom that's not visible in the settlement distribution for now. Let's compare it quickly with the Kaushaian region where we have for the product rare culture again the root dots, we have around 295 for the early Bronze Age. Let's graph again, it's around 200 starting and as you can maybe not see, there are exactly two middle Bronze Age sites in this region. So there's a real change, I would say. But we can also say a change in the pattern of the distribution of the settlement sites. We call it rare culture, we have east-west distribution in the south of our region here that changes to the early Bronze Age in the north-south distribution. And we can also see that the value of the overall river gets more important. So now we'll come to the predictive modeling and so we have seen structures for the kind of density estimation and so on, and spatial structures are called interleave kinds of social structures so it makes sense to look further to them. I will use the predictive model and all predictive models have, according to Whitley, one thing in common, there are expressions of a top-bit-stick relationship between human behavior and prior existing spatial conditions. These spatial conditions are not only environmental parameters so not only slow aspect, I will talk a little about that shortly later, but also social connections that we can look at with complexity modeling or network modeling and everything else. That's also something that can be put inside the predictive model. So, prediction in this case is a description of what is rare, who is rare. Post-diction, that's what I want to do now with my predictive model. Let's play the planation why it's something that I found somewhere positioned where it is presumed. So, as I said, preliminary results that are presented today so I will just focus on the environmental part of predictive modeling. So, keep that in mind when you look at the results that it's not the final result, but that's what that's the environment that the people in the Bronze Age and to call it where I had to work with or worked with, had said like that. But there's a whole part of deductive modeling to the predictive modeling that's missing for now and we'll add it later. So, my first results for the product rare culture are and like I said, you can see it quite clearly. The red color indicates the higher probability of settlement positions and they are really in the vicinity of rivers. On the low area of the rivers, so on the wet areas, there's the highest probability to find a product rare culture settlement. If we now compare it to the Bronze Age, we can see that not the rivers are the thought for places anymore, but the slopes above the rivers. So, there is a shift in the preferred settlement. I'm quite unhappy that I can't show you the distribution for the middle Bronze Age because of what's still calculating where I had to leave for here. But we can talk about the influences and the significance of the influences of the parameters in the predictive model because that was easier to calculate. So, for the digital iteration model, so the heave, the overall heave, for every region it's shown that the overall they prefer lower areas, but that's only significant for the early Bronze Age. All other time periods, they look for them for the lower areas, but it's not the primary decision marker. If we look at the slope, we can see that it's difficult to interpret for the early Bronze Age and for the direct culture. This means that there's not a uniformity in the distribution of the settlements, so we can think about different roles for the settlements. But for the middle Bronze Age, there's a clear preference for gentle slopes, so more or less every settlement looks for the same place. If we look at the aspect or the cardinal direction of the slopes, we can see it's not significant for every time period, but for the direct culture early Bronze Age and middle Bronze Age are not looking for northern-oriented slopes, and the real difference is that neither the cardinal culture nor the early Bronze Age are looking for southwestern oriented slopes, but in the middle Bronze Age we can see that they are quite looking for them. So there seems maybe to be a shift also in the economy, or at least in the preference where I do my economy, my subsistence economy that is. Looking at the topographic prominence index, that's to ask the question is my settlement in the flat area on a slope or on the ridge. You can see also again that for the quadruple culture it's difficult, and in the Bronze Age they prefer slopes and flat areas, that's quite a significant point. And what's also interesting is that in the quadruple culture there's a preference for less windy areas, while in the middle Bronze Age and early Bronze Age they prefer windy areas, and it's also quite significant, so we can think about maybe that's a question of the permanence of the settlements, because for the quadruple culture we think more about seasonal settlements in contrast to the more permanent settlements of the middle Bronze Age. So, come to my conclusion, I think there's quite clearly a shift in the early Bronze Age from the settlement participation from the lower order to the West Mecklenburg area. You can also see that the settlements concentrate in the northwest during the middle Bronze Age, but also have a stronger connection to the coast. If you compare it with the Koschen region there's also a similar trend that there's a shift in the pattern, but it's quite clearly not the exactly same shift, it's also quite clear that the concentration of settlements is really really different, because we have a higher, much higher concentration of settlements in the quadruple culture and in the early Bronze Age in the Koschen region, and we have quite clearly not so much decrease in the concentration of settlements in the middle Bronze Age in northern Germany. And I think the last point is more the question of the method, and I think that predictive modeling is in this way a usable tool to assess influence and significance of different environmental parameters, but for the future the social parameters have to be added. So, thank you.