 Rupati's strange relationship with Putin. We're gonna talk to Rupati Kandikar, who joins us from New York. She's associated with the United Nations and she's Indian and she follows these events. But first the news Rupati. I wanna talk about the border skirmish because that's how you and I first met talking about the border skirmish. What happened in the Himalayas yesterday? Good afternoon Jay and pleasure to join you and think take a while about this. And so Himalayas, we've come back a full circle and we're talking of the Himalayan dispute isn't it? So Galwan, we spoke about last time. That was one of the issues that highlighted how Moscow's diplomacy helped India and China settle a very fiery, a spark which could have gone into fire. So we have something of this border dispute. I told you before that the border in India was left undefined by the erstwhile Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. And that causes a problem because it's mountainous. And so these disputes are going to keep on arising till we find a properly demarcated borderline. We don't have it. And Jay, it will continue for a long time I think. So Modi is working on it. And so let's talk about Modi, how he is doing in international relations now. Yeah, well Xi Jinping claims it. He claims everything, extraordinary how much he claims. And Modi doesn't wanna let him have it and so you have troops up there and if the Chinese go over the line, what do they call it, the actual line of control, which is really not a border so much as de facto border. And the Indians come and say, no, you've gotta leave now. And then they have fights about it and they had one fight which I think was after we first discussed it in 2020 where people were actually killed. Because up to that point, there was a gentleman's understanding that you didn't use weapons. That the fights up there on the border was just pushing and tugging and smacking the other guy around without a weapon. But in 2020, there were fatalities. Correct. Those happened because of the people who fell off the cliff also Jay. And they use those clubs with barbed wires and all that. Fire arms are not allowed within two kilometers of the LAC. That is an understanding between both the countries and they keep it that way. But India's problem is that till now we did not have roads and strategic routes to reach these border lines. So it was the people who, the regiment that is posted in that area to defend that area. We did not have reinforcements coming in and backing up these places. So we were at the mercy of the China has a relatively, see they have a upper slope in combat. When you have the vantage point, the higher point, elevation point, you are a vantage point. So as compared to the people who are below. So India mostly has a disadvantage at this because we are the low lying area. The high points are occupied by the Chinese. So we did not have immediate military backups. Now, after Modi decided to develop villages and the routes, the entire, he has given a very broad perspective that you develop the entire area around it. So the people have got affinity towards the country. If you feel Indian, you are going to not allow the Chinese to come in. If you're left to the elements, you are going to go to whichever person rules you. So that is the strategy that is adopted by this government since they're elected. So developing the Himalayan terrain has been a focal point. Because it is such a undefined LAC line of actual control, we will keep on having, this is the claiming of lands by both the side. And I'll tell you, Jay, it's a good diversion from domestic politics. Don't you think that when- Well, you know, one thing that I noticed in my reading was that Narendra Modi is trying to build up the military in India. He wants a stronger military. He wants to spend more money on it. I guess he wants to deter China from doing things like this. And then he wants the world to know that he's a power. And indeed, you know, it wasn't too long ago when the United States, which had better relations with him then, gave him the secrets to the nuclear bomb. So India is a nuclear power. Yes. And so that's pretty serious when he says he's gonna build up the military. What kind of reaction do people have to that? See, the US and India, we have a quad mechanism which is in place, Australia, Japan, India and US, where we conduct military exercises in the China Sea. And that is a direct combat mechanism to deter, or rather, it's a deterrent for Chinese aggression. So once you know you have these big naval powers, China feels threatened and feels pressurized. US-India cooperation is very strong in terms of being two of the largest democracies. And understanding between both the countries has been even when India was non-aligned, even when India has a strategic partnership with Russia, US and India still maintain very close ties. I told you last time, US has the biggest Indian diaspora and friendship with the United States is always been beneficial for India. And also we have supplies from the US, trade with the US, strategic partnerships with the US. So this is two friends of mutual understanding. Good. That works. I want to be friendly with India. I like India. You know that. Of course. So now we have the meeting with Putin and we have a picture of a government picture of Putin's meeting with Narendra Modi last year, a year ago. And there they are. I'm not sure. I guess that took place in Moscow. So the question is, and this has been going on an annual basis. They should meet, they should catch up with each other, I suppose, and make sure that their relationship is good. But a lot has happened since last year. And in fact, that meeting didn't take place this year. And my understanding is that Narendra Modi said, no, I don't want to meet with you. I'm not sure why. What is the reason and what is the reaction? Okay. So this happens on an annual basis and missed only two times since then, since 2020 because of the pandemic. And now, now the excuse given this time is because they met in September in Uzbekistan, they don't need to have a tete-tete right now. But you see, right now, India is assuming the presidency of the G20. So he wants to be in as much as a non-controversial position as possible. So, I mean, Putin understands and Modi and Putin have been veterans in global politics. So they have had, like they have dealt with each other since a long time, almost a decade now. And you see, Jay, India and Russia have been strategic geopolitical partners since the Cold War. But India and Russia are such, no, Russia dominates India's friendship with the US. No, India dominates Russian friendship with China. So you see, each one can have put their own path, but they make sure that they consider the other friend as a priority or at least at the back of the head always. So now because of the Ukraine crisis, Modi categorically told them in the G20 summit, this is not an era of war. That was his statement. And he explained that in Uzbekistan. And he said, it doesn't have to be war. It can be, you know, you have to think about what are the terrorism, climate change and pandemics are going to be the next priority areas for the coming political maneuvers, not war. So he demeaned Putin in a way publicly, but continuing relation with, he is not part of the sanction regime against the Russian. Yeah, when you take that all together, it looks like a problem. Tell me if it's not. I mean, he hasn't joined the sanctions. He's been buying gas and oil from Putin, undermining the sanctions from Western Europe. And, you know, now this where more and more, it appears that he's friendly with Putin and not so friendly with Western Europe and the US. So I'm a little worried about where that goes. You say that he, you know, India has long had a policy of talk with everybody and maintain relations with everybody. Don't make enemies and all that. But I think he's going to get plenty of heat about this, about not discussing the, you know, the Ukraine invasion at the G20 meeting. What's the reaction in India? I think in the US, it's not a good reaction, but what about the reaction in India? Modi discussed Ukraine in the G20 summit, but the majority of the leaders, other leaders under Indonesia's presidency, they said, we should discuss economic issues rather than Ukraine. He gave a statement in the G20 that war is not the way to go ahead. But you see, Russia is one of our biggest weapons supplier. Russia is one of the Indian trade in oil has increased by 170% to reach $17 billion in since February, since 11 months of the invasion of Ukraine. It has gone 170%. And, but it is still lesser than what Europe is buying from Ukraine. Okay. But you see what the argument is that Europe has left buying from Russia. So they buy from the Middle East. When they buy from the Middle East, the Middle East prices go up. And India as one of the largest populated countries and with the economy which can trigger into recession and affect a billion people, they prefer to buy oil and keep... See, Indian economy is very steady right now in the face of economic recession. Indian economy is doing well. He is looking at national interests rather than geopolitical considerations because he has a billion amounts to feed. Okay, but let me... Couldn't he take another position? Just talk creatively for a moment. Yes. If you were Narendra Modi and you said, gee whiz, you know, the destruction of Ukraine is the destruction of the global world order, the liberal world order. And we are democracy. We are the largest Asian democracy for sure. Maybe the largest democracy in the world in terms of people. We cannot afford to have the liberal world order disturbed, especially with people like China at our borders. We don't want anybody taking our territory like what happened in Ukraine, including Russia. So just suppose, just between you and me, suppose we wanted to advise Narendra Modi, say, look, there's a better way here. There's a better way to be moral, to protect the global world order, to call a spade a spade, not to let Putin get away with this really horrendous, you know, war crimes invasion. Wouldn't that work too? I know he's got a lot of mouths to feed, he's over 1.3 billion, but at the same time, can he find a way to ally with the West on this instead of with Putin who is a monster and who is killing people, you know, for sport? And so, you know, the question is, does Narendra Modi have to do this? Or could he take another position without losing, you know, political leverage in India? See, it's a twofold answer to this because we are in the 11th month of the Ukraine fight and 11 months almost like a long, long time. And destruction is at its peak and they're not stopping, there's no relenting because we are seeing cities being burned. But you see, Indian dependence on oil is for economy based. There's no heavy manufacturing as Europe does it. Europe uses oil and gas for heating homes and manufacturing, heavy industries manufacturing. But India uses it for a basic infrastructure. So rising prices of oil and gas affect each and every individual's household needs. And because we are a democracy and not a dictatorship, he's elected pan India from the population. If he doesn't take care of the inflation, recession, Indian economy will go into a spiral downward. So there is no way out. If you're getting competitive price rates, you will go for this. Diplomatically, when you look at the second side to it that if you look at it diplomatically, India, Russia has been a strategic partner at diplomatic forums, even when it was a superpower. So strategic partnership with Russia has been on the UN summit when they have vetoed resolutions passed against India. They have been in lowering tensions with China and Russia and India have a pact that if anybody goes to war, the other person comes to help. So that kind of blind friendship is very important for any country too. And with Russia, China and India, you have oil supply, you have one of the biggest market and you have one of the biggest manufacturers. They're trying to form a triangle which is very self-sufficient. And US and the hegemon of the world order, they need to step up and the conflict is basically between Europe and Russia. Everybody needs to mediate diplomatically. Militarily supplying each of these countries is just going to fuel it. I told you last time, everybody, we had the UN General Summit in September. How emphatically was the resolution passed that we have to stop this war? Why didn't it happen that there's a responsibility to protect like the countries came together as a community to protect in Libya? Why couldn't they do the same thing in Ukraine? So this kind of strategy determination is not in the interest of any country. Russia is selling its oil. US is also selling the oil. You have all the economies functioning. But when you go verbally, you are condemning Ukraine and letting it be, the fighting is still on. That is, it requires a military resolution. Everybody needs to come together, military, to come and stop it. I mean, just supplying few weapons to Ukraine is not going to balance out Russia. I mean, you look at the map and you see the size of Russia. Russia's economy is failing over the sanctions. Russia is in trouble. Russia will come out of this a lot less powerful and influential than it might have been. In terms of Russia's place in history, this is a huge, huge mistake. So question, why doesn't an Erendromoty support the Ukrainians by money, by arms? Why doesn't he talk to his friend Putin and say, why don't you stop this? This isn't helping you. We want to be friendly with you. We want to have mutual defense packs and I'd like to discuss that further. Hey, friend to friend, stop him. It's bad news. Why doesn't that happen? But what it looks like to the world is that he is consistently supporting Putin in an illegal and horrible war. Why doesn't he take some action to show that he recognizes if it's a bad war, Putin is making a mistake. Right now, Putin is so inflavable. He needs the international community to come as a whole to stop him. It can't be one country. It can't be two countries. It has to be a community of nations who come together well determined and with a military resolution that if you pass this line, we are coming in between. Send troops of all countries to Ukraine to stop. You cannot supply them military through bits and pieces. It can't be passes. It has to be a complete blockade. That's unlikely to happen though. Because Putin tries to divide countries. He's using social media now to disrupt the political views of Germans and he wants them to divide against migrants and all that, including migrants from Central Asia. And so what's happening is Putin himself divides the global community. It is not likely the global community can come together. It's a matter of standing up and speaking truth. And so we are hoping that all countries that are not autocratic themselves, especially democracies, will stand up and speak the truth. But India doesn't seem to be doing that. And India votes with China in the Security Council. Yes. And it doesn't condemn Russia. And it takes no action to use the power of the United Nations, however minimal that is these days, to stop Putin's war. So, I mean, India is leaving itself exposed on a moral basis, don't you think? Yes, that's absolutely right. A single-minded determination is lacking in all the countries. See, even European countries, they started accepting Russian oil and gas immediately. I mean, the conflict is on. They will condemn it, but there will be supply of oil and gas. So if you want to do a sanction policy, it has to be comprehensive. It can't be selective that one country will do it and see, suppose if the sanctions were accepted by India and India stops using Russian oil and they accept Middle Eastern oil at higher prices takes it and Europe continues to accept oil from Russia. Would that be right? That would be selective, isn't it? That they get the oil from Russia, but India stops using the oil. So where's the pressure? The pressure has to come when it's comprehensive. The pressure cannot be selective and just because you are in close proximity to Russia doesn't mean you depend on them. Then you have to use better routes to change the supply, but one country just alone cannot do it. Yeah, I understand. So what about, and that's what Putin wants. So he wants to divide up the global community. You mentioned that Putin has a, what do you want to call it, a mutual defense pact with India. Yes. And that goes back way back because there was a time when Russia was supporting India in a moment of need. I forget exactly what the moment of need was, but he was supporting India with weapons and the like and support in general. Pakistan rivalry, they come always. And so there's a historical connection there. So when you talk about a mutual defense pact though, you really wonder, so I guess the deal would be that if anybody came, anybody attacked India, that Russia would help defend India and that would work in India's favor. But let me ask you a question, Rupamati. Who in the world, who in the world is going to attack India? Oh, Pakistan, China. We have had how many wars. We have had multiple wars with them, with our neighbors. We have adverse neighbors. So we have a problem with, and Russia acts as a deterrent to them because Russia keeps China down. Otherwise you would have had a very aggressive China. The communism card is played by Russia and China is kept under hand. I mean, they do their part in this and strategically, Russia has always helped to veto the resolutions which Pakistan used to put under for India, even in the times of war. And Ukraine has voted pro-Pakistan against India. So diplomatically, they have always gone against India. I told you this, that will be a consideration in many of the things, if they did not support, it's for that kind of a thing. So strategically and diplomatically, Ukraine has been on the side of the adversaries, rather than... I got it. So actually that's the flip side of the mutual defense back. So Putin says to India, look, we have a mutual defense back and those Ukrainians, they're so mean to me. They resist and resist my invasion. I need your help. Because just as I have promised to give you my help, you have to give me your help India now. Is that part of it? Is this part of the mutual defense back between the two countries? T.J. having oil being supplied at low prices. But they're not giving it according to Indian terms. Do you know that? India is asking for it to be dealt in Indian rupees. They refuse, Russia refuses to do that. Russia wants the rubles to come up, you know? So you want this monetary hurting is hitting U.S. recession. And U.S. hegemony in this is very important because it's up to the U.S. to gather this diplomatic, what is that, jingoism. It's not happening. We don't have a very fervent and potent leadership which will do this. It has always been the U.S. which has garnered everybody's support. Okay, come on, let's do this. Let's direct, let's lead. That leadership is lacking. And that is where all this, when the class monitor is not good, the class goes into chaos. This is exactly what is happening now. Yeah. What about that $60 per barrel cap that Joe Biden is trying to implement? Does that help? Does that alleviate the problem in any way? How does it affect Indian policy with regard to Russian oil and gas? See, Middle East is benefiting from this when they are able to supply European markets rather than Russian. So everybody is benefiting in their own way. And the cap, it has to... I'll tell you one thing, J, the oil producing cartel is a very strong cartel and they have very... The goal is just for more money. So they are very ruthless in their approach when they're selling oil. For them, diplomatic, military, loss of life, it doesn't make any sense to them. They just want their dollars, they want their oil cap, they want their money to come into the account. So this kind of selfish mode which has taken place in the international system is because everybody is pursuing their own mini goals rather than looking at the entire global community and global, the first priority of every nation has to be. Stop whore. Is that happening? We have summits going on. We have the UN summit. We have the G20 summit. We have bilaterals. We have multilaterals. Which statement has said, stop whore? They just say, do not do little bit whore. The whore is not good. This is not good. But nobody has come in support. And I told you, one person cannot stop. One country cannot stop putting. It has to be a comprehensive effort. So we have discussed this before. We'll probably discuss it again, Rootbody, because it's dynamic. Things change. Ukraine changes. Putin's relationship with the Russian people changes. A lot of them are leaving in protest and so forth. But query is what you and I have been discussing. Is that known to the average Indian person in India? You know, it's a First Amendment country for sure. And there are many newspapers that presumably report all this. Everything that you and I have said, presumably, is known to the average Indian citizen. How do they feel about Modi? How do they feel about Modi spending money on the military? How do they feel about Modi supporting Russian oil and gas? And how do they feel about India voting with Putin in the Security Council? How do they feel? See, Jay, after 11 months of fighting in Ukraine, Ukraine has become a regular column in all the newspapers. Isn't it? Everybody has normalized it. Lots of life has been normalized. Making India a good military and good, you know, strengthening Navy, Army and Air Force has been a need for India because our fleets are outdated. And we need modernization of technology because we have two enemies who have gone for previous wars. So we have to defend, we have borders to defend. So that becomes a priority. And the Indian public is very happy with him for doing this because patriotism is, it appeals to every individual. And secondly, voting for Putin, Putin has always been Russia. When you say Russia to an Indian, he feels friend. US to Indian, they feel friend. They don't bring the dynamics of international politics into this. So for them, what is happening in the UN is of little relevance. How do they feel about what's happening in American government? Because, you know, just like all these events you and I have been talking about, including the success of the Indian economy right now, they must read about all of the machinations of the Republican Party and Trump and his friends in the United States, which, you know, you alluded to that earlier because it's hard to have confidence in, you know, in the continuing goodwill and assistance of the American government globally. So, Quiri, how do the people in India feel about the problems in American government? Trump got a thumping. What is that? Welcome in India, you remember that? It was one of the biggest, I think bigger than what Nixon had or something like that. Eisenhower, somebody had. So he was very happy with the Indian public and the Indian public loved his flamboyce and everything. What he does in the US politics is never an issue because they love a good leader. And for that, he enjoyed India a lot. The reception that he got was jubilant rather than... Who was he? What president are you talking about? Trump. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, you know, we have a very nasty, we have a correspondent as a student. I don't know if I told you this before. And I asked him at the beginning of the Trump administration what he thought about Trump, that he liked Trump. And this will be very interesting to you. And he said, yeah, I like Trump. And I said, why do you like Trump? He says, because, quote, because he is strong, end quote. And so that may be a common view in India now. Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's, you know, it's the mannerisms, the flamboyance. The politics takes a second stage because you like the leader who's coming. He will do antics, which, you know, please the public or, you know, his speech and a stadium full of people cheering Trump, Trump, Modi, Modi. You imagine the jubilation that he has, the happiness that he had. So he is the Indian diaspora supporting him. You know, that kind of the charisma that the Indian public brings out in a leader is different. You have a cheering crowd. So they really don't give a second thought to the politics behind the leader. Yeah, well, you know what? It's almost time for you to write another book and straighten this out for the average Indian person. And I will be happy to help you write that book. Let's do it. Rupani Kandakar, who writes a lot of books associated with United Nations and follows events all over the world, including in India, of course. Thank you so much, Rupani, for this very interesting discussion. Thank you so much, Jay. Thank you for having me. Always a pleasure. Always a pleasure. Aloha. Thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii. If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo. You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn, and donate to us at thinktechhawaii.com. Mahalo.