 Hello and welcome to the CMC markets weekly webinar with myself market analyst David Madden the day's date is Monday The 9th of October and the time has just gone 12 15 p.m As always we will be I will leave the brisk warning slides here on the screen if you'd have a read through yourself It just basically states whatever we cover in today's webinar. It's just basically commentary My own personal views And talk the discussions of what's going on in financial markets. It shouldn't be constricted as an explicit investment or trading advice It's a necessary part of the actual webinar itself It will keep my compliance department happy by me doing so But this it won't take very long believe on the screen for a few more seconds and then after that We can actually kick off with with the webinar itself Is obviously been some a few economic indicators and some political Proceedings over the weekend Which we can now crack on with the webinar properly. So I'll be quick look at what has gone on Within the past number with the past few days Obviously the Catalonian situation and standoff has is is still very much in play There was a kind of a pro unity rally yesterday in Catalonia and also around Spain And Spain can a projected the kind of public image that they actually wanted to to send out At the there was no this was the direct opposite of the previous Sundays Previous Sundays Scenes whereby you saw we saw there was a very heavy hand approach by the police this yesterday's one for direct opposite So we have seen a bit of a cooling of tensions Also, it does appear to have taken more of a political and financial route whereby the Spanish government are not making it easier for companies with headquarters in Catalonia to relocate the headquarters to a different region of Spain Applying a bit of financial pressure to the Catalan separatists and also the Spanish government have actually blocked or prevented the Prevented the Catalonia in a parliamentary meeting today And it's only at one of those meetings can actually Katonia she declare independence the president of the region cannot do it himself So so we are seeing a bit of a bounce back in the Spanish market looking around Europe We are seeing a bit about yet in the footsie pullback recently in the sub or sub the 7500 level we do appear to be seeing a bit of a sell-off We have seen a push higher in the British pound and in turn we have seen a bit of weakness in the footsie win-hundred What we saw overnight out of China the service figures the Kaishin private Survey of Chinese Chinese figures Chinese service sector grew at its slowest rate in 21 months There was a very minimal growth it came in below expectations as a decline in the month It's a sense sent out a it was a bit of a I didn't have a major impact on the Markets over in the Far East But we have seen a bit of a sell-off in some of the mining companies that are listed here in London because China's are a bit Fearful that the Chinese economy may be some of growing As much as it is as it would like to also Beijing have been making a conservative effort to move away from a mower Heavy industry manufacturing construction driven economy to more servers based economy What did it broadly been doing save the past 12 or 18 months? But unfortunately today's number was it's kind of a better spanner in the works and is obviously gonna Unsettled some investors nerves. It's going it is a it is a holiday in Japan So the Japanese market was closed overnight. So there's relatively low volume volatility in Asia Today is Columbus Day in the United States of America You can also expect a low volatility on that front and obviously we did have the Non-farm payrolls numbers out of the West last week. Yeah, we saw a decline in the headline number But there was upper revision to the previous month There was a decline in unemployment and a very hefty Increase in the wage numbers and so overall I think it was a decent report But to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we see that negative number I should revise to a positive number next month obviously with the hurricanes Harvey and Irma this obviously been a bit of a skew to it But I wouldn't be surprised if that number We surprised it that number of remains as it is Taking a quick look at the week ahead. I always show you every single week where it is on our website So if you go to our website itself on of the news and analysis section Click on the news analysis section. This will bring you to the page here under filter by topic third one down the weekly outlook Taking a look here at the weekly outlook Effectively gives you a breakdown of the major corporate and economic stories. We can look look ahead to during the week So turn it to a tomorrow. We've you get with numbers are the UK Manifaction numbers coming out of the UK tomorrow. We also have an update from the fashion house Ted Baker And then there was a back end the week We have the US banking US reporting season kicks off again And we have the banks the major banks are the ones to watch out for this week We've updates from JP Morgan city group and and Bank of America is also worth Fargo. I believe as well Then on the end of the at the end of the week The big of watch out for will be Chinese that Chinese trade data obviously keeping an eye on the imports and the exports is obviously going to have a Potentially big impact on companies which are heavily exposed to China such as mining companies like Rio Tinto and Glencore and also and all but another and other mining companies like PSP Billiton also playing into that mix into the in the China story our company HSPC Very large exposure to Asia Sander Charter as exposed to through the Far East as well the Azure have been a big and Burberry I've also been a big seller to to China as well Scrolling down on the corporate and the corporate front We've already kind of covered the major stocks which are reporting this week It's also we're pointing out black rock of that third board numbers out on Wednesday Domino's pizza numbers out on Thursday You also be a full your figures on W. H. Smith on on Thursday And on Friday as I mentioned we Bank of America and we also have Maryland They're the big ones to watch out for from the United States on Thursday So taking a look now at the other folks even hundred as I mentioned because a push higher in sterling has in turn Take a bit of the edge of the foots you in hundred But we did see a fairly decent and move Upward move in the footsie last week If you take a look at how the footsie been performing It's a you we see if you appear different a snap out of the kind of the kind of sideways downward trend The downward trend that the market has that was in throughout the summer pushed higher Fairly decisively and granted we are seeing a bit of a turnaround now, but notice how the momentum they can Move to the upside has been kind of matched by an increase in kind of positive momentum Granted we are seeing a bit of a slight cooling or stalling of it to and today's session given that we have to Yeah, pull back About you know from today's high. Yeah, pull back around 45 points, but the broader kind of a sentiment and also the kind of Chart has been pushing higher for a number of weeks now so as I suspect the overall kind of upward trend that we've seen for the last few weeks is likely to could remain intact and Should should we can remain north of should we remain north of kind of 7,500 the olive could continue to be positive Even if we do pull back You know given how much we'd be how many a positive candles we can see here Even if we do even if we do drop it all 7,500 we could also potentially find support in around this price area here He of seven thousand four hundred and sixty one move to the upside If you do continue if you do resume the wider So we do resume that the upper trend at the mark has been in for a few weeks now We could be looking towards the August high seven thousand five hundred and fifty two and then at that level has taken out You could be looking towards the all-time high of seven thousand five hundred and ninety nine as always I'm going to go through the major indices major major Commodities major currencies and any markets that I that you that you would like for me to cover Just feel free to stick it in the chat box. I don't have to be kind of run down What we can have we could have run through whatever markets you would like me to have a look at The Germany market at the German market the Germany 30 obviously do do quite well Not too far away from record highs So that is your that is automatically your your indication right there the price the most important indicator works far away from record highs We've had widely consider a push to the upside Fit me over the last few weeks See even if you do see a bit of a correction Even if you see a pullback, we could find support in around this level here the low here from from last Wednesday in at 12,893 and then south of that in at 12,847 so these are the areas for potentially If you do see a bit of a pullback the areas you could potentially see some buyers enter the fold give that The train has been to the upside and we are just off all-time highs So to the upside we've been looking towards 13,000 and then as it's as it will be, you know Fresh territory chairs is ending keeping me off of the big numbers like 13,100 200 and so on Don't worry Michael. I will certainly be covering brand oil in a few chairs time And as you can see well as we look at the Spanish shirt here It's the i-bex 35 the first thing you notice is that is even before the Catalan chaos kicked off Which is in around here early October we can see for the Spanish market was already in decline I didn't have the same first hire from September onwards Like like like that that we saw in the tax. It was already pushing lower We have managed to actually kind of have managed to kind of push back up Close kind of in around the two hundred a moving average the two of the moving average is pretty much in around this area here summer in the region of 10,240 10,045 so that's obviously an important barometer to keep an eye on and Notice how negative momentum has actually been declining so we could see so this so the setting pressure that has been in Existence for the last few days has been declining hence we're seeing that we're seeing that should the price push higher But even before the Catalonia in situation kicked off We did seem to have problems and trouble getting north of the 50-day moving average So that level has acted as resistance and that in the past so it could potentially act resistance In the near future and and the current level of the 50 moving average is in at 10,345 if you do happen to break that that will be potentially Potentially send the market even higher again And if that weren't for the case potential levels to watch out for to the upside would be the kind of mid August high of 10,445 and then north of that at the one or two moving average at 10,525 Notice how the one or two moving average did act as a bit of support to the downside in July but then of course if we're going to fit around and then act as resistance Once the mark was actually below that metric So where they were potentially at a fairly key level We're close ish to what could be a very interesting area for the Spanish 35 the Ivex 35 The US markets are in quite quite impressive shape Last week we saw well, the Dow Jones and the S&P finished a touch lower on Friday But it's been a very much an upward trend I'm kind of buying on the dips has been a popular strategy for traders When they're trading the US markets as we can see here, this is just all record highs slight pullback in September only to be gonna Only to be followed by a continuation of record high So if you do see any kind of moves lower in the Dow Jones, it could potentially find support in around 22,700 or 22,634 and then back down towards 23,500 potentially but as you can see here the trend is clearly to the upside It's a bit concerning that we are seeing a possibly a standing stand or maybe a slight decline of positive momentum So we could be seeing a bit of the the power behind the bulls could be waiting ever so slightly But as I mentioned prices is the Indicator is most important indicator. That's going on reaching registering record highs That's the one that would take precedence and it is also worth pointing out today is Columbus Day in the United States So it makes you it's likely see low volumes low volatility But we will build the US markets will be back to full swing tomorrow It's a very similar to chart for the S&P 500 whereby We have seen positive momentum Wayne has ever saw slightly But but the the price has been going on to read to registering record highs. So it's a very similar chart for the S&P 500 Move to the upside because of fresh territory chairs looking towards big numbers like 2,560 70 80 so on and so forth where it's been once again buying and Buying into the market on a correction on a pullback has all has been a fairly popular strategy So if you do see any moves lower in the S&P, we could get get some support in a 2,540 or 2,531 or throw the south of that a 2,520 As I mentioned with the S with the now keep an eye here in the momentum ever so slightly coming off So it could be sign that happy to find buying pressure is running out ever so slightly out of the scene But I'm just keep good. Just just keep an eye on that It's only if it's only if you see a sharp decline in the price in momentum. That is something that that would be actually a bit concerning And I will cover copper. No worries Michael. I'll do that in a second now Coming on to the gold market As mentioned the equity markets broadly speaking have been having quite positive so in turn The gold market has been fairly negative over the last month, but we have seen a push higher. So Gold basically lost a hundred dollars between this high here in September, which was a 13 month high pullback about a hundred bucks And in the wake of last Friday's non-farm payroll kind of ground ground gold a bit lower Near nearly as low as 1260. You didn't quite get there But this is effectively a hundred dollar move here that we've seen in the downside Notice how in the last few sessions we have seen a fairly clear Decline and positive a negative momentum rather so it could be indication that the bears are kind of and their energy It's kind of running out of steam. So we could see a push higher From here in gold and if that were to be the case Pledge level to watch out for was in around the 1296 region And the 1296 region is in around where the 50-day moving average is Notice how that metric acts as a bit of support in this area here on the way down at the end of September It's also worth pointing out that in there on the kind of 1295 1296 area That was also the same area whereby it was kind of the highs that we saw in both April and also in June So this this area here could actually be a very important level to keep an eye on for the price of gold Should we break north of 1296? Obviously the psychologically important the 3,300 level is going to be there on the cards North of that. We'll be looking towards in around the kind of 1316 region and then beyond that We kind of because of the pullback from the kind of mid September sell-off and at 1334 in here and then beyond that again in these 13 month high Which is created in September and 1358 it is possible though bearing in mind that The likelihood of an interest rate from the Fed Reserve has ticked off Ever has ticked off on the back of those non-farm payroll figures We also heard from Patrick Harker last week of the Fed Reserve who said the Fed of it He said the U.S. Central Bank is penciling in another rate rise Some people out there have their doubts about that given that the debt ceiling debate is going to be held in December We also don't know the likelihood We don't know what the Fed make-up is going to be like in a few months time But if the U.S. Central Bank a prominent center bank as we're talking about the rate is penciled in it's something that really shouldn't be ignored So if you do see the price of gold going to turn over on itself And it does kind of resume they kind of the downward move that it's been in Since the early part of last month we could be looking back down towards 1260 and then south of that Potentially at the 30 moving average at 1253 and then if that level has taken out it could take us back down towards the July low of 1204 Kind of quick glance now at high-grade copper And if you're gonna be if you're gonna be trading high-grade copper Just be mindful that China has a trade data out at the back end of the week It'd be out on the early hours of Friday morning Keep an eye on the imports component of that because that would give an indication Of how mineral hungry China is And also even the exports will also give indication of What they're kind of international trade is like as well So just be mindful of the of the of the numbers we have from China coming out at the back end of this week So as we can see here copper side quite a positive run from the back from the end of last year As I kind of quite broadly speak it's been a nice decent decent upward trend What we can see here is though and after we did have a Probably you could say an overdue correction I know it's a fairly decent boot to the downside when you compare it in comparison How much ground are covered from here from the country at 1245 up to 1350 and then we got from 1315 Down to 1288 in that kind of region. It's still percentage-wise. It isn't a major it isn't a major correction on the other copper market and now we do Seem to be actually pushing higher again And we couldn't this could be a sign that we are seeing a Resumption of the wider positive trend for the price of high-grade copper So if you do manage to hold north of the fifth of the moving average here Great to notice how sort of accident support here But then when it broke below it it was trying very difficult to get north of it And then this candle here last Thursday smashed through it. So it could be this could be the kind of Potential kind of foundation for the potential next upward move in the price of copper So if we do say north of the fifth of the moving average, which is comes into play at 296 but 95 we could potentially see a continuation of the bullish move Move to the upside three off potential resistance at 305 79 and then beyond that at 13 1315 spot 09 One of the reasons why I like to use the kind of the with the MACD Indicator moving at moving average conversions and diversions The histogram is so you can actually get so you can actually see what they kind of not which way they kind of momentum is moving Which you can see here is notice how that when the price of Of copper it was pushing higher It is swung from being negative momentum deposit of momentum Here the price is pushing higher, but the positive method here wasn't overly impressive It was sort of standing still and wasn't really growing all the while the price was kept in ratcheting up So price the one you want to follow but if the rate of which the price is increasing isn't overly impressive That could be a sign a nearly indication that the buy that buyers are running out of steam and lo and behold You have a decent correction here in September And there's a very aggressive swing from positive momentum to negative momentum and that was increasing all the way down here Until this in around this price area here So we could see the price was the setting pressure was starting to decline in around here all the while the market actually turns around So this is a good example of who I like to use this indicator that the MACD indicator as you can see here To positive momentum so and the positive momentum of the last few days has actually been increasing There for me can be more confident of the move because it's you would want to see the momentum Confirming the direction of the actual move itself So that answers your question there in relation to hypercopper Taking a look now what's going on in the oil market over the weekend? Hurricane Nate was downgraded to a tropical storm. So going into the weekend Everyone's it was expecting, you know, big disruption to all refineries. So it's quite likely that But more oil refineries are in operation in the United States than anticipated over the weekend And I just saw the back of hurricane herby and hurricane Irma When the refineries were knocked when the refineries were gonna effectively knocked out a commission But a man to get all into the refineries was weakened And we saw prices fall. So we did see a big fall in the price of crude oil At the back end of last week also What was added to the news mix was Russia who previously said on Thursday this candle here stating that they were looking to their keen to extend the production freeze from the end of March 2018 out to the very end of December 2018 But then on Friday the sort of double back on it and I said, oh, well, it's something that we're open to We're going to print or something like that is a possibility The kind of this disorder can I sit to do a bit of a u-turn? And on the back of that we have seen a bit of a decline in in the price of oil But bearing in mind here looking at Brent, it's been in a fairly decent upward trend since the since the middle of June So the kind of the trend is your friend until until it comes to an end is the old mark I ride that out so even though we have seen The price of Brent crude come off in the last few weeks this trend here I suspect it's still potentially going to remain in place But notice how they could have made enough momentum has actually been increasing So we could potentially have further ground to to to lose before it is possibly Resume the wider upward trend. So if you do see further moves to the downside branch Could take us down to 55 dollars a barrel or down to the 200 that are under the 50 moving average Which is comes into play in around 40 40 So 54 dollars per barrel and then south of that potentially support in around the 53 dollars per barrel region The high here that we created in September was a 26 month high So you're gonna get it giving in indication of how bullish that move actually was And if we do continue if we do turn around and resume The wider kind of upward trend that has been in for a few months now going out about four months We could potentially target this level here 57 52 and then north of that at 59 51 and then of course you're looking at you're looking towards the kind of psychologically important 60 bucks a barrel for Brent WTI didn't have as an as an impressive run As I mentioned when the US refineries or some of them were out of commission on the back of both hurricanes Harvey and Irma There wasn't say major demand for for WTI So it's lagging in comparison to Brent Brent crude But as you can see here since June produce bacon the up for trend is still actually intact for the for WTI Trading in around the two-day moving average and also the 50-day moving average. So this is an interesting level here For the price of WTI That the metrics come into place it come into play in around the current level dirty moving average It's not too far away from the current price in around $49.27 for its 50 moving average is about 40 cents below that in the 48 dollars and 87 cents So if you could hold on to this price region here We could potentially see maybe a further continuation of the wider upward trend Up towards the September high of 52 dollars and 53 cents And if the September high is taken out virus might be then looked towards the the hyphen April in at 53 dollars and 62 cents 50 53 dollars and 56 cents But once you get notice how the positive negative momentum is increasing. So We could see We could see a further decline before we potentially see a wider Before we see a potential turn higher yet again So if we do happen to kind of break up a break south of the 50 moving average of 48 dollars at 87 cents We could see that the market return down to the 48 dollar mark already Perhaps the one or two moving average at 47 dollars and 62 cents Take a look now at some of the big currency pairs Euro dollar first on the list So as you can see here essentially for the last month or so The euro has been pushing lower. We did see a bit of a bit of a turn around in the last couple of Today and Friday, but that was probably more to do with Profit taking on the US dollar because the US dollar has had a really good run Well, conversely if the Euro has had a week week a week poor month conversely the dollar has had a good month So these moves here that we've seen in the last since Friday basically probably more to do with Profit taken from the positive for the dollar rather than confidence in the euro, although We did see good German industrial production numbers this morning And also there was some good factory numbers out of Germany at the back end of last week, too Notice how as that the price has been pushing lower We have seen a bit of a decline in negative momentum So could be an potentially nearly sign that the kind of setting pressure on the single currency is starting to kind of wait a bit So if you do push higher on the euro versus the US dollar We could see a head back up towards the fifth day moving average in around 1844 and then if that level is taken out, we could head back up towards the kind of 120 region if the US dollar kind of continues a Shorter term kind of positive move that has been in over the last four weeks We could see it back through 1662 and then south of that at 1613 and Then if you go below that it could take us back towards the kind of 115 114 80 region The pound versus the US dollar So we can see here a decent move higher after quite a few After quite a losing but quite a bit of ground since the middle of last month the pound as point time America Very decisive move north of the 50-day moving average. So if we hang out of the 50 moving average In at 13152 we could potentially push higher up towards the 132 67 region or 133 region and then north of that we can look looking towards 134 or 134 52 this price action here. This could potentially be No, notice how there's been a dip in negative momentum. So after this kind of this nice this an increase in In a negative momentum, this could be the kind of the turning point By the market starts to kind of push higher on itself because let's face it If you look at the wider trend for the pound versus the US dollar Since since kind of March of this year has been brought very much to the upside We have seen some decent moves. We have seen some decent moves lower whenever Corrections when it has corrected itself, but the wider trend is still in place. So This could be the sign here. Keep in mind that on the MacD. This could be the sign here That's setting pressure is in decline Keep in mind now on the euro versus the British pound Euro sterling So keep an eye on the euro versus the British pound here What we're seeing is after quite similar Because at the big picture since April the euro has been a fairly clear up for trend since since April decent size correction I came into came into effect from end of August until the end of September But if we could potentially like you're looking at a scenario that kind of wider trend it could potentially be Can be back on the cards notice how as the market was selling off aggressively here We saw a very steep increase in negative momentum on the MacD indicator But then as the market was kind of finding a bottom here finding a base in around here We saw the setting pressure on the naked on the negative momentum indicator Decline quite quite consistently here only to swing around into positive territory. So And if you look at the price action here, it's it's might to come off the lows here from late September It's taken off we're now above the water day moving average And it's not going to already kind of eyeing up the fifth day moving average the next potential big hurdle for it to overcome If it can hang out under this price here the order to moving average was in around 18 89 14 we could we could look for a retesting of the fifth day moving average in at 90 20 Notice how it did active resistance here What after it broke below it it tried to kind of regain and again a qualifications But it wasn't quite successful This price area to watch out for there And if you do take out the fifth day moving average, it could send us back on track up towards 91 And then north of that at 92 26, and then of course how we take out that level here We look and potentially back towards the August highs If you do in the other hand though drop back below the fifth at the one or day moving average We potentially looking back toward this price area here over on 87 30 a to the downside Keeping it on the last one big mark. We're going to look at now. It's going to be the US dollar versus the Japanese yen Bearing in mind probably kind of all that all that a movement in this currency pair Japan was at holidays overnight and we have a lot of people will be celebrating Without people will be celebrating Columbus day in the United States of volatility imagine it will be quite low What we can see here is that a kind of bigger picture has been to the downside What aggressive sell-offs big bounce backs and then only and then only only last month do we go on and hit a multi-month low But it's been in a fairly price wise It's been a fairly decent upward moving and bounce back in the US dollar versus the yen But it hasn't large bounce backs and large corrections hasn't really been uncommon What we've seen in the dollar versus the Japanese yen So you can see here and again a near term they kind of the upper trend is very much in place But if you look at the momentum indicator It could be a sign that the buyers are running out of steam We can see here the price is continuing on to push ahead nicely You know on Friday here. We created a multi-month high But we created that high on very obviously declining momentum There's no guarantees to say that the momentum that is actually going to keep falling our turn negative But it's just a bit. This is potentially a bit of what's called divergence when the price is clearly moving higher and And the MACD the momentum indicator is moving lower. It could be a sign the buyers running out of steam Should the market turn over on itself and look to push lower We could potentially find support in a fertility moving average of 111 spot 90 South of that back towards the water day moving average at 111 spot 10 and then take us down towards the They kind of one of the kind of big lows from September in at 109 spot 55 If you do push higher if the price continues to push higher We could potentially find resistance coming into play at 113 87 It's what it's kind of the high here from the middle of June of June and then of course So July rather and then if you do take out that level a big area to watch out for it It's going to be the July high in at one of 14 49 and that and that was just ever saw slightly slightly eclipse the high here in May So that'd be the next level to watch out for to the upside As always, I give you I give you a quick rundown Of where other items are on our on a trading platform and also on our ship on our actual website itself So what I'm looking at here is chart form is updated by myself and the other other analysts Here at CMC it is a quick and a snapshot of a take a snapshot of a chart I will write a few hundred words about it What we think may or may not take attention levels to watch out for in certain charts That can be found under the trading pulse tab here I think I'm trading first-rate market pulse rather and it is the third option down the chart forum To the right of it. What I have set up here is the insights some of the some of the articles that we do Here by the analyst team get posted to the website some of them get posted to insights and the insights is the second option down here It's also a good place to keep an eye on because the economic indicators that come out during the day will get updated So well as soon as the the eurozone Investor conference numbers come out this morning at half nine. I have data them there In terms of corporate accounts in terms of economic counter that is the fourth option down on the market pulse It's a good way to keep an eye on to know what economic indicators are coming out As I mentioned UK industry numbers coming out tomorrow morning. It'll give you the forecast what's expected I'll give you the also the the previous month number as well Spanish CPI is going to be going to be relevant What's going on in Catalonia? That's on a Wednesday on Thursday as always We have we have the US initial claims from the United States. We also have some industrial production numbers out of the eurozone And then our Friday as I mentioned the big ones to watch out for on the early hours of Friday morning will be the Chinese trade numbers Also keep an eye on the events the webinars and events section of our of our website This is where you found the the webinar That I'm hosting at the moment On Wednesday on Wednesday the 11th of October on a couple days time. We have a webinar covering commodity trends That is at 1930 British summertime half 7 p.m. London time Well as always the Monday 1215 webinar hosted by myself is is is on every single Monday at 12 15 And then a Wednesday the 18th of October at 1930 British summertime 730 p.m. London time we have a webinar covering next generation foreign exchange I want to thank you for your time and appreciation Have a good trading week. Good luck, and please tune in next week. Thank you very much