 All right, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list Hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week between then last week. We had a pretty good list Pretty much all setups paid at some point. We had GDX DVN and also CCL GDX and gold had an insane run for the rest of the week DVN and energy sector in general did very well and CCL had a nice pop into Friday But it kind of fell short of our 17s price target So definitely still keep CCL on watch over some weeks or months still could have some more potential to the upside We also closed the rest of the TLT I was talking about last week closed one half at 24% and then closed the rest on Monday I believe at around 55% Treasuries did pretty good starting to bounce as yields go down Kind of lining back up with the stock market because I feel like bonds and equity is gonna had a divergence for a little bit Stocks making new all-time highs bonds going lower kind of struggling to take off But TLT made it to the upper channel line that we were looking for and now could see a little bit of resistance So hopefully we have a repeat of last week. Hopefully we have some good setups for you this week We do have some data some big data actually this week We do have the CPI coming out and that's gonna be on Tuesday, March 12th You can see we have nothing scheduled Monday. So CPI is our next data set gonna be on Tuesday CPI is always straightforward. We just want to see that continued trend lower So we know that the Fed is done hiking rates Maybe even looking to cut soon after hearing so much talk about higher for longer People are expecting rate cuts going into 2024 Maybe some time towards the end of the year some expecting them in March Some expecting them in May we'll have to see as long as the Fed is data dependent Traders investors are also data dependent and then Thursday We do have retail sales and also the producer side of inflation We're gonna look at the producer price index two big inflation gauges this week It's gonna be CPI on Tuesday PPI on Thursday and then Friday most important is going to be the consumer sentiment at 10 a.m This always brings mid-session volatility. You're gonna want to pay attention to this So that's for the economic data most important is gonna be CPI second most important It's gonna be the PPI also consumer sentiment and US retail sales and on to the seasonality for this week last week We did average somewhat of a little pullback the last 20 years I think about 11 out of 9 trades would have been a winner if you went short last week 20 years in a row You would have had about a 55% chance to win to the downside and we kind of did get a little bit of a pullback But I would say it was mostly choppy. We can see the swing starting to get a little bit bigger Friday Especially for tech we had a big pullback in semis We might even go into that later big engulfing bearish bars on the semi indexes on the semi ETF On NVIDIA AMD a bunch of stuff and that really brought some pressure to tech in general And we also had Google and Apple up on Friday, which is very strange We had the market down with Google and Apple up obviously because they've been laggers and you kind of seen that capital Rotation back into Google and Apple it kind of makes you wonder if Apple is a safety play of sorts because it's going up While the markets going down but Apple did kind of sell off into the clothes as well And that kind of brought the NASDAQ down with it because Apple I would say was probably the only thing holding up the market in general If you have semi selling off which has been most of our rally and you have Apple going up Apple's kind of acting as some cushion And then when Apple goes down you're gonna see semis and Apple going out at the same time It's gonna bring a lot more pressure and we saw that going into the clothes on Friday So last week was mixed. I would say we kind of follow the seasonality a little bit There was a little bit of downside not like making a new low kind of like what you see right here We didn't make a new low or anything, but we did kind of get a little bit of bearish seasonality I guess just not to the exact graph here or follow the exact pattern to the downside But for this week coming up, you can see we're kind of mixed again We have winning trades at 50% for the last 20 years. This is the 20 year data set You can see average profit was about point 13% So not a big move by any means and we have gains and losses 10 out of 10 So you got 10 gains 10 losses the last 20 years giving you 50% winning trades to the upside You can see this little back test here is longs and the average move is up If you went long this period next week or this week coming up from March 11th to the 15th You would have won on about 50% of them But still came out with a summarized profit of 2% over 20 years So this period not exactly the most bullish not exactly the most bearish either you can see max drawdown was at 3% one point. So it doesn't matter what time period you're looking at You're likely gonna see some type of big drawdown You know if you're looking at 20 years of data every single year is different market conditions change This could be a drawdown from a bear market for all we know But like I said overall if you went long the last 20 years here 50% of them won And you would have came out with an average profit of point 13% and a summarized profit of 2% So basically the winners made up for the losers But that's the average move for this week slight bullish tilt nothing crazy You can see we're kind of getting in a range here Nothing really big impulsively and we don't really get that big impulsive move towards the end of March here for this 20 year data set We go down to 10 years for the most recent years You can see the vibe kind of changes a little bit This is backtesting short trades and you only have 40% winning to the downside the last 10 years So you got four games six losses if you went short this period the last 10 years But you can see it kind of does a leg down again Towards the end of the month and then once the end of the month comes around That's when we kind of get a big bounce and we see that big bounce on the 20 year data set and the 10 year data set So maybe this period we could be a little bit careful for a market pullback, but like I said, this is just for recent years This is only 10 years of data The other one we're looking at is 20 years worth of data and on the 20 year data set It's a little bit more calm a little bit more collected a little bit of chop Kind of like a base being made before trying to make a leg higher going into March and April So that's for seasonality kind of makes this week Like I said 50% I've been winning trades if you went long the last 20 years in this exact period But otherwise, you know, just maybe look for a slight bullish tilt not exactly sure how the data is gonna come in Nobody really knows economic data is very random But we do have CPI PPI and also consumer sentiment and on to the setups for this week We do have three I got GM FCX and also Uber so GM here We've had a pretty solid uptrend You got a test one a test two and then a test three bounce I'm guessing this is from our earnings gap up right here kind of consolidated and then ransom more But now we're starting to test below that trend line So I'm kind of looking for a short-term flush here Obviously the max I could see if it wants to flush lower probably about 3740 or so That's this little gap base right here if we add on to the moving averages We're starting to close a little bit under the 21 and the nine It probably will need to have a more obvious close under this 9 and 21 combo to flush But we are starting to get a little bit of evidence that's starting to give up a little bit Especially on the 9 and 21 combo. Maybe this is the last higher low It's gonna try to make we kind of do have it breaking this uptrend here It kind of came up for a back test and close back below the trend line As you could see, this is the close right here. This is just briefly under that close If we went to the 15 minute, we are closed under that trend line as well And also this is not the most bullish candle. This is kind of like a drop base drop potential setup This is the ideal candle you would look for any base to start heading lower Especially with this upper shadow wick on Friday's close, so to pay attention to that But like I said, if you want a more obvious signal, wait for an obvious close under that 1 day 9 and 21 email combo. If it starts closing under the 21, that short-term trend could shift You also have a negative KDJ here. Obviously this has been crossed over Probably the last four or five sessions, so it's a little bit of a late signal looking at it now But this is negative. So the momentum is to the downside just a little bit the last four sessions According to the KDJ and also starting to break under that trend, of course So GM, I'm looking at puts on this. Obviously you have lots of time until earnings You got 44 days until they report. So maybe some longer dated puts on this at least April expiration minimum. April's starting to kind of cut it close though I think the contracts are for 415 for the monthlies. So you got about 35 days from now But as long as it's over 30 days, I would say it's a good swing contract. You can hold it overnight Once it starts getting down to two weeks That's when theta really starts to kick in and you really want it to be in the money at that point That way you don't have to deal with any theta risk and your deltas will make up for it So that's where GM looking at puts maxed downside I could see that 3740 I would have to see how reacts to 3740 if it can get down there Or at least the general area maybe 38 even as a psychological level But before I started looking for that whole gap to fill I would have to see a start closing inside the gap just a little bit or at least closing under that 3740 And that could fill this little earnings gap or whatever this event was right here I'm guessing it was earnings if it could start closing under that you could start getting inside this gap eventually But take it one level one step at a time 3740 is a good overall And then you might have to go down to the shorter term timeframes to find a short term price targets Like for day trades little scalps stuff like that But this 3740 is good for a more higher time frame medium term price target Over some time maybe over a couple weeks over a month or something Keep your expectations low and then once your price target hits it feels that much better Because you can't really expect much from the market it is kind of random So that's for GM looking at potential longer data puts 30 plus days expiration minimum But it looks pretty good a breaking trend here just look for that 3742 hit eventually All right next we're going on to uber This is actually another potential short set up for puts You can see it's starting to break down this little short term uptrend It was trying to form you have a test one a test two nice little test three bounce Led to a small little impulse move up into 81 86 which is big resistance We actually took puts at this 80 area somewhere around it And I think we sold on this day right here this little Tuesday And good thing we did because it actually bounce so we'd have been stuck in a range I think we made 35% on uber you'd probably have to go to the x-trades app and look I think it was like 35% or something but you'll see my entry and exit on that I feel like this impulse candle in this gap up was just too big Just kind of had that what goes up must come down kind of mentality I had a feeling you would try to pull back for a little bit And it did for two days nice little dump made 35% and ran back up Held the moving averages too you can see this 9 to 21 combo still holding So the uptrend is still somewhat intact But we are watching this short term uptrend starting to break a little bit And you also have a multi top potential So 81 86 you got a short term rejection here short term rejection here Friday short term rejection again So this is not a confirmed triple top or anything If this top pattern was to confirm I would say we need to take out either this 74 31 That would confirm a top pattern maybe this little area right here at 75 88 If we could start clearing under that that could confirm a top pattern With top patterns like a double top or triple top a lot of people make a mistake Too short directly at the resistance When really it's not confirmed yet the top pattern gets confirmed Once it takes out the neckline or the support of the structure So in a double top and a triple top you always have a big resistance level And a support as well you want to wait for that support or neckline to get taken out And that would confirm your pattern So you want to see it do something like this kind of break it back test And then head down maybe just take out the structure low That would confirm into the gap as well And that would give you a confirmed pattern Likely the most obvious trade for any type of topping pattern Would probably be once it starts getting inside the gap And you could shore down into that But sometimes with short term options or really anything You want to try to find it at a decent you know risk to reward And sometimes you know at the resistance is the best spot Even though this pattern is not confirmed yet It's not a confirmed triple top It's not a confirmed double top It's still some type of resistance you can go off of And you just keep your stop briefly above the high But lots of times you can go short like directly at the resistance It'll pull back just a little bit and then it'll try to break out Well one thing we do have in our favor here We are breaking that short term uptrend line So the fact that it's breaking this little uptrend Gives me reason to believe this is a failed ascending triangle So an ascending triangle is a bullish pattern It makes higher lows it has flap top resistance And on an ascending triangle for a bullish position Usually you'd be looking for a big breakout that could blow off top So you can see it failed here broke the uptrend line And we have three points of resistance So that's why I feel pretty good about looking for a short term pullback At least in 275.88 So that's 75.88 And also that's 74.31 Those are two potential support areas You would need to be careful of those If it does pull back into those And like I was saying at the beginning of looking at this We are still kind of holding that 9 and 21 EMA combo We have a brief close under the 9 But not a close under the 21 yet It would probably need to break under that 21 To really confirm a trend break So that's why you may want to be a little bit conservative With your price targets on this Just because we're still holding that 9 and 21 EMA combo Using that 75.88 and the gap support as well At the 74.31 that little gap area That's probably your max downside for right now Until it starts closing under that 9 and 21 Then you could probably start shooting for that gap So that's for Uber looking at puts Probably still April monthlies minimum 30 plus days I mean they're about 35 days away So as long as it's not a two weeks expiration It's not as bad I would stick to 30 plus days for any fresh position If you're already in that's one thing And you only have two weeks left And you're up a little bit Or maybe you're down a little bit That's one thing because you already entered But if you're looking for something fresh I would definitely stick with 30 plus days Alright and last but not least for our individual tickers We're going over FCX real quick We actually had this in the list a couple weeks ago It was looking pretty good for a breakout If you drew the trend line like this This is what we were looking at right here We had this little pop out or maybe it was this one And ended up falling back in and coming out And going back out and just kind of messing around So that didn't work out the last time we looked at it But now that we have a more clear trend line here We have a test one, a test two, test three rejection Four, five, a bunch of rejections right here This is obvious This is now a potential breakout Not even potential This is a breakout You had to confirm breakout here on this little 4% day Up to 40 Likely due to the DXY going lower US dollar Maybe the copper markets went up I know for sure gold went up And they do have a little bit of stake in gold As well as copper But their majority business is copper So it's copper and gold So it's good when the gold market goes up For FCX as well as copper You want to see both going up And likely that is due to DXY going lower When you see general metals go up all at the same time So we probably will want to see that continued trend On DXY down Kind of like it's been doing last week To make the GLD go up Or you know the gold futures Just gold and general spot gold It has been going higher And the DXY has been going lower You want to see that continued trend Really for any metals So FCX I'm looking at calls This is a little bit more solid Than the last time we're looking at it We have a very solid breakout Kind of our getting over this little Double bottom resistance right here as well It probably will need to stay over that 39.75 We do have a little bit of resistance At 41 flat or 40.99 Which is this little high right here So this little structure right here Could be an issue But overall I feel like it could get up to That supply target over time If you buy time on your contracts Could trade up to that supply It's going to be at the 42 42.50 or so So these little structures are kind of a mess I guess you could say Because you got a little rejection structure Right here that led to this You got chop and rejections right here That led to this leg lower So we will need to kind of trade Through this little choppy area To get up to supply overall We are starting to trend over the moving averages You can see we're over the 50 We're over the 200 We're over the 9 and the 21 And I think the last time we're looking at it We weren't really above the 9 and 21 And the 50 and the 200 As much as we are right now So we do have a more clear pop overall The moving averages compared to last time When we just had this little pop right here We also have a positive KDJ here So that's starting to curl up from the last two sessions That's a good sign for momentum And overall it just looks pretty good For a balanced little retrace back up to supply And that supply zone originates from right here You can see it's a drop based drop So something happened in this area To lead to this drop And when it came back up and tested it right here We had another drop again So this supply is obvious This is something the price is respecting And that's why it's probably the maximum area You can look up to overall Because you don't know how it's going to react Once it gets up there So that's for FCX Looking at calls Just make sure it's staying over your 9 and 21 E-Met combo Make sure it's staying over the 50 or the 200 as well As long as it's over all your moving averages I would say the uptrend is pretty good And your chance to go higher is a little bit raised As long as you're over all those moving averages And to give it time to work through this chop area If this does become an issue at the 41s and the 42s as well Go with April expiration minimum Probably, you know, the 415s It gives you 35 days It's above 30 days And it gives you time to think And if it does decide to pull back I feel like a 30 day expiration pullback Wouldn't be as bad on your premiums If you want to go further out that works too Go with May or something Give it lots of time to work back up to supply But I feel like overall this little supply Would be a good price target overall Alright, now to the indexes The first we'll go over is the SPAR the S&P 500 Last Friday we were focused on this little impulse candle Obviously we had no confirmation or anything of downside Or really a good entry for upside or anything Other than this little impulse breakout So I really didn't like anything right here The only thing you really had to go off was Potential pullback for seasonality And you see we did get that on Tuesday We had a pullback of 1% Close down 1% came down into these little Structure lows right here at the 504s Close to the gap support But not quite And then eventually we bounced back up Made a new high, etc Came back down again on Friday So like I said when we were going over the seasonality It was very mixed We had some bare seasonality But we had to buy our show back up And then bare seasonality again on Friday Once all the semis pulled back And I feel like the semis brought down the market Very heavily And our main focus pretty much the past month or two Really past couple of weeks is this 9 and 21 Emit combo You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it But you definitely want to pay attention to it And approved it again And we pulled back into the 9 and 21 combo right here And it ripped back up two days in a row on this Tuesday So if you bought the dip in the 9 and 21 combo As every single time it pulled into it You would have made some money these past two days right here Even a two day swing would have made you some money as well Just by buying off the 9 and 21 Emit combo So nothing has changed on that front We still are trending over that 9 and 21 Emit combo As usual as we have been for months now Which is just crazy Because it's like the Emit is just never end The higher lows are just forever right I mean we've been adding these higher lows Basically since the beginning of 2024 Even before that so towards the end of 2023 And the beginning of 2024 We just keep making higher lows Higher lows, higher highs, higher lows, higher highs We could be getting a little bit of a structure shift After Friday's close It depends on the semis I think So if the semis pull back more and violently And keep falling through with those bearish and golfing bars they made They could bring the market down pretty heavily It just depends Overall the spot and the QQQ are still trading over their 9 and 21 Emit combos So you really don't want to exactly go short into them And like I said it's good to use trend lines and stuff as well for higher lows So if you want to do that you can do that as well We got this trend line right here So we have from October lows You got a test one, a test two, test three And there's also this way of drawing it Test one, test two, test three, four, five So you could use this one as well The other was just an addition That goes from this low to this little low right here So you can see the 0.1, 0.2 and that extends out this way And that's just in case the spy does want to pull into that second part And still hold it up You just want to be sure right Because if we got rid of this And let's say it started closing under this Just briefly It could just go back over it Just because we didn't have the trend line draw correctly So it's good to have both of those available if you can You have your regular single Which has been holding overall We really haven't had a crazy close under it Had a brief break under it right here But if you add that second Which goes from this low to this little higher low right here That led to that Nvidia earnings gap up That would be good Because once it gets under both of those It's going to be really obvious that something is shifting So you probably see a break back test dango lower So you're 9 and 21 combo on the one day Or trend lines Best way to use your trend Both of them worked last week So if you had your trend line drawn out Or if you had your 9 and 21 combos up You would have been able to identify a potential higher low You could have taken a stab at some calls down here And made a little two day swing to the upside before Friday So just keep it simple guys I mean that's just how the market's working right now It's the most simple way to read a trend The most simple way even to know not to short Or be careful of shorting Goes really small If you're really going to try to call the top Because this is really just holding very well Doesn't matter what you look at 9 and 21 combo trend line It's all holding the same So I would just keep tracking those EMAs And that trend line keep trying to buy dips off it Till it stops working Wait for a trend shift to the downside A little close under it to go short You could mark some horizontal levels as well So we do have a short term 514.20 We do have a pretty big rejection level From 518.22 on Friday Just from this one bar It made it obvious that something happened up here To lead to selling You also have a structure right here at 504.75 And then gap low at 503.02 So if you want to mark those You could do that as well You can even get rid of the trend lines here for a sec So it's more clear That's one way to mark your levels So this is kind of your trading range If it doesn't want to pull back You probably start looking for support Around the 504s As long as it's still holding over your 9 and 21 combo Still holding over your trend lines This is a pretty good area to kind of scalp off of Even for day trades You don't have to buy swings all the way up here If you don't want to Because we are kind of getting at a frothy level So you want to be careful doing that I'm not buying any swings up here personally The long I really liked was Apple last week And I had some call debit spreads on those I closed those on Friday On that big move up on Friday Made about 40 bucks on my challenge account Brought the challenge account back to $400 From our $300 starting point Kind of had a little draw down from SMH So yeah Long's really stuck up here I mean it's tough to buy But if you're using that 9 and 21 combo Like I've been showing you It has been working pretty well So that's your levels for this week You can get 518.22, 514.20 And then potential supports at 504.75 to 503 Otherwise nothing has changed Like I've told you the past couple of weeks Maybe even a couple months 9 and 21 combo Still all holding the same So gotta be careful with that Trend line of shirts you draw Still holding over those Making higher lows on that No close under it just yet So you can't get too bearish Alright none too market to breath This is stocks above their 50 day moving average Actually S&P stocks S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day moving average Which has actually been curling up Despite the market going down on Friday We actually had stocks above their 50 day Go higher so that kind of gives you a sign That the supply pulling back Was mostly probably a large cast But you had a lot of lower tier names Kind of in the S&P 500 Maybe getting back over their 50 day moving average Which is interesting because that kind of Just shows a little bit of a divergence Between breath and the market Maybe that means it's widening out And that's a good thing You got breath going up While the market pulls back Maybe that means that the lower tier names Kind of are providing support in the market And we're not just seeing a rally From big techs mega caps and stuff like that Because we do have a 35% concentration In the indexes The top 10 names for market cap In these indexes is 35% We haven't seen levels like that Since the tech bubble in 2000s So it's scary And we want to see widening on breath We want to see lower tier names Small caps, mid caps All going up as well Showing that it's not just the large Mega cap tech stocks Carrying the whole freaking market on its back And that's kind of what we use the stocks Above their 50 day for And when we saw it going lower right here We were kind of assuming that It was only mega caps carrying us Because we had stocks above their 50 day The majority going below their 50 EMA And going back lower But we had the spy still making all time highs And going higher So this last pullback on stocks above their 50 day Has been opposite to the spy Which is a divergence And that's kind of been making us think That we could see a pullback in the market Because we don't have breath Agreeing with the spy So that's kind of what I've been showing In the past couple of weeks Just spy versus F5FI Which is the indicator So we had breath pulling back This is the indicator we were just looking at Or this one right here We have the orange Which is S5FI Stocks above their 50 day Going lower Spy going higher And then right here We had stocks above their 50 day And the index is kind of agreeing with each other So once we got to this little bottom period Market was going up And also breath was going up So it was really just this month long Divergence right here That didn't make any sense And maybe that was because mega caps carried it But you had the majority of lower tier names Going lower right here And then once breath bottomed out right here Lower tier names came back up And you had mega caps also going up And that kind of made up for the difference So that's probably the only conclusion I could come up with Why are we seeing stocks above their 50 day Going lower While the spy is going higher That's probably the only conclusion I could come up with We had large caps carrying Lower tier names going down And then at this point right here We had lower tier names Plus mega caps also going up And that's why you had breath aligning with the SPX Or the S&P 500 right here So it's a good sign It means the market is broadening out And it's not just mega caps carrying But you still want to be cautious Because you do have stocks above their 50 day Not making new highs It's not getting back up to its peak out point right here So this is a peak out point Peak out point right here This last peak out point right here Aligned with the market pullback This little peak out point Just a little short term pullback Nothing crazy We also had a peak out point right here Stocks above their 50 day peaked out Market peaked out pullback right here Another peak out point right here So once the stocks above their 50 day get up here I'd definitely be a little bit more worried about a pullback But as long as it's staying up and curled up right here I don't feel too bearish about the market And as long as the market's still holding over that 9 and 21 combo I still feel pretty good about the market Making higher lows Maybe just chopping out Not seeing any major volatility just yet Maybe even needs to get inside this gap as well Before starting to look too bearish But we do not have stocks above their 50 day Trending back lower with the market on Friday So maybe we'll need to see breath go lower And the market go lower at the same time To get a little bit more evidence that the market could come down For right now Breath is curling up Market still curling up Still holding over the movie averages We're not seeing any huge evidence of anything just yet I would say it's just evidence of broadening out Lower tier names making up for mega caps When they have a bad day Vice versa So everything's still in pretty good shape I would say For now Breath is still curling up Haven't seen a big drawdown in breaths And also the market Just kind of had a little small red day here For the spy The QQQ A little bit of a different story But we'll go over that next Alright now onto QQQ Which had a much more dramatic reversal on Friday You can see we have a big bearish engulfing right here This is all due to semis We had AMD NVIDIA Everything in the semi-sector was pulling back as a whole So you can see this is our original trend line here We have a test one A test two A test three We had a brief break under it But then we got back over it We have a test right here And another impulse move bounce Briefly broke below it Went back up So this trend line's kind of been iffy You probably will want to add an extra from October lows But then go to this point right here So this was the day before NVIDIA earnings That led to this huge QQQ move 3% up So definitely mark from this low To this little higher low right here I would definitely keep that on watch To not try to short until it starts breaking under that If it starts breaking under this It's probably going to get into that gap as well So make sure you draw that We also have a fresh little resistance here at 446.50s So this is a big rejection level Led to almost a 2% day right here into gap support We had a big rejection off that on Friday Likely due to semis Pretty sure it's guaranteed due to semis If you look at this and NVIDIA's chart It's basically the same thing But if you look at some of the other mega caps It's not going to make any sense to you But if you look at the semis like NVIDIA, AMD And then look at the QQQ It's going to make sense to you I could even show you a chart on the SMH Which is the semiconductor ETF that I like to trade It basically looks the same as NVIDIA Because NVIDIA makes up 25% of it So we can go over that next two as well Even though they both look similar They kind of do have a different kind of parabolic-ness to it SMH is just straight parabolic While QQQ kind of just melts up So arguably, I mean semis is what's been Bringing the QQQ up Maybe a little bit of Meta and Microsoft as well Because we haven't really seen a big pullback In Microsoft or Meta But we have seen pullbacks in Google and Apple So I would say semis are probably carrying this the most And that's why on Friday Once they finally pull back We have a really, really big bearish engulfing bar Taking out the previous lows and the highs Of this previous bar on Thursday For the moving averages Still holding over your 9 to 21 combo So you can't get too bearish yet Every time we get into this area Bulls have showed up, tried to buy the dip Only difference this time You have a more clear reversal Off this 446-50s So you might want to be a little bit more cautious Trying to buy this dip But maybe you could look at some scalps Or something on day trades I probably just want to go long For like a swing or anything right here Really even on the spy or the QQQQ I really don't like swings up here Need to see a little bit more of a better value area For me personally But if you are pretty good at adding it Higher lows and stuff like that This isn't getting back to your short-term value area The 9 to 21 combo has worked wonders Showed you on spy and QQQ both Every time we get to the zone It gets bought back up So it's basically the same as spy You don't want to go short Until it breaks under your 9 to 21 combo Also your uptrend line Maybe even once it gets inside the gap Wait for that Before trying to go for a put swing or anything like that But you are starting to get a little bit more evidence Maybe that some type of pullback is coming With this 44650 rejection Obviously there's a lot of urgency To get out once it got up here And you even see that on the SMH chart as well One thing you don't have on spy or QQQQ yet Is a pretty much a close under the previous week low So we weren't able to close under this bar right here We weren't able to close under the lows Which doesn't signally reel reversal yet Same with the spy Basically just have a base out candle here We briefly touched the lows of the previous week low But until we start taking that out So it's going to be 504.91 for the spy this week And also 433.65 for the QQQ this week So we won't see any reel reversal Until we start closing under the one week lows The previous one week lows Make sure you mark those That's kind of a basic way to look at reversals Or kind of pay attention to your structures Your previous week low is really good To know when an actual reversal is coming And it'll kind of save you some money Because if you're trying to go short When we haven't taken out the previous week lows yet You might get caught in a higher low And blast off higher And then you'll wish you didn't short But here's as a matrix chart It's very, very bearish I would say just from this one bar I wouldn't say it's totally collapsed yet or anything It's pretty obvious that we needed some type of rejection A little bit of profit taking Because it was getting a little bit ridiculous As you see by this chart If we go to the one week candles You can see we're kind of starting to live A little bit more uncertain here We have a big upper shadow wick This is not a bullish bar by any means Obviously the market can defy expectations And it can still go higher even on this Like I said needs to take out the previous week low You probably need to get under $2,1829 for semis Or this SMH ETF That as a whole, if this whole sector goes down The QQQ is going to go down as well So make sure you mark the previous week low For this upcoming trading week Wait for that to get taken out Before trying to go short Or look for any big reversal in the market But I hope you see why the QQQ went down so aggressively I mean just look at the SMH This is a big move 4% on this ETF And video went down 5% So we can look at the moving averages real quick We're still over the 9 and 21 combo The 9 and 21 combo has been pretty good for SMH Every time we get into it Basically bounces bounce right here Bounce right here Bounce right here We also have a rally based rally demand zone So I mean dip bars can still show up You gotta be careful I would say once SMH gets under this demand zone low Which is also the previous week low by the way If it gets under this On this upcoming trading week That's a pretty good reversal signal And it could go lower You see Nvidia go lower, AMD, etc But otherwise this could act as a buyer's area For short term higher low at least Maybe scalpers would try to pick up calls on Nvidia Something like that And you'll see a short term bounce at least But that's really all I got Definitely want to watch previous week low 433.65 If you can get down there That could even be a good scalper area for calls as well And then your resistance is very obvious this week 446.58 So make sure you're watching 446.58 To 433.65 for the NASDAQ That's kind of your potential trading range right now And we are kind of getting wider ATRs Which makes sense We have a bigger FOMC meeting coming up As well as CPI coming up this week So maybe that's why we were seeing that crazy volatility last week VIX really hasn't gone up too much But as long as it stays over 15 on the VIX We can definitely see some elevated volatility Probably we'll need to get back over 20 overall For the VIX For any real volatility signal But we are starting to see that widen a little bit But hope you guys enjoyed this video Make sure you like comment and subscribe To our extra YouTube channel I'm gonna go ahead and get this chopped up sent out All that good stuff This time change is kind of messing with me So I need to start working on the editing before it gets too late Kind of I'm starting a little bit later today Just due to the time change But I love you guys And I'm out There's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market For sharing financial ideas With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors Users are flocking to see what 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