 man, Teddy Kegstad. Folks, you can check out Teddy's newsletter. The Tiger 4x report comes out every Monday with a new issue and updates throughout the week when warranted. And we talked to Teddy every, every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. And Wednesdays are always a good day. Teddy and today is a good one as well as we got Fed Day. Hi. Good morning. Good morning. So let's, let's kick it off with the Fed, maybe, uh, since it's the topic of the day. Are you looking for any action from the chairman this afternoon as a, as you know, your specialty being 4x where, how do you approach a day like, like today where we get, uh, some pretty interesting news, all but assured, we're going to get a hike, man. But there is some volatility in terms of what we get after that. Absolutely. Well, I'm looking for a quarter point hike, you know, that's something that I think is going to continue for all the rest of the Fed meetings for the rest of the year. So I don't see how there's anything in our economic numbers that is going to show that there's any reason for them to back off, you know, if they, if everything they've done for the past year and especially the last six months, if they're solid and that they're doing the right thing, well, they're going to stay the course because there's nothing in the market giving us any reason to see that there's going to be any type of slowdown in these, you know, influences, if you will, that they're trying to combat, you know, and especially now with the banking crisis going on, you know, there's, there's such a perfect storm of things that for them to back off right now, I think is just a really transitory illusion that people are grasping, you know, a drowning man will grasp at a straw, you know, to try and stay afloat, you know, and I think that's where this kind of direction is coming from, you know, globally, the central banks or they're coordinating to try and float the rest of the banks because this crisis is so systemic, you know, and I think also as long as the other central banks around the world until they at least stop being hawkish, we're going to continue to remain hawkish as well. Yeah, what's the expression I was thinking as you were saying that I look at it as as very hopeful and like hopeful is not quite a strategy or hopeful is not a plan or what, you know, hope would be because I agree. I mean, everybody wants them for your own perspective. If you got whether you're going for a mortgage, whatever it is, it'll open up the spigots in the economy. We all want inflation to go away. But is it going away? I don't know those numbers for we got ADP this morning, Teddy and the just input, I almost cracked up a bit in terms of everybody talks about lowest number cents, right, decelerating numbers, you're seeing wages up almost 14%. If you change your job and up more than 6%, right, if you stayed in the same job. And so very tough to imagine that the chairman is going to, you know, pop some champagne and say we're done hiking. But guess what, there's there, the market thinks they're close. So we get to find out, right? Let's jump into some of the forex numbers, man, we had some huge action in the dollar index, you've been talking to us about, you know, the dollars all about the euro, we have, of course, the different pairings that are reflected strength versus weakness. But what did you think about the action yesterday, man, all the way up to 102 40 I got. And then boom, just like that, you give it all up and we're at 101 55 right now in the dollar index. Yeah, well, like, we're pretty much back to where we started on Friday. And I think that the reality is it's fed week, you know, so I mean, in the tiger for support, I said right off the bat, be very careful trading any markets going into Wednesday's number, you know, after it comes out today, I think the key thing will be to see what is the verbiage they put out, I think that they're going to remain hawkish and nothing's going to change, you know, if they were to all of a sudden look like they're going to at least pause, you know, for a couple of meetings or at least one meeting, I think then you'll see a market shake up. But otherwise, you know, the trend, the trend is your friend. And that's what's going on. The what's really odd, though, is the inverse relationship, you know, not just many currencies are going on right now, but in the yield curve, you know, with the with the 30 year and the 10 year reacting the way they are, it's more of a flight to quality type of rally. And that's what really scares me to begin with. And it gets back to like what you mentioned, the word hope, the trader's added from the floor is no wishing, no hoping, no praying. And whenever you're using any of those three tactics into your outlook, you know, well, that's an appetite for you're definitely going to lose. You're the wrong business. You're not just the wrong business, but whatever you're doing is going to be wrong. Yeah. You know, so and I think that's where we're really at with that again. What was the expression? I like it. Say it again. No, no wishing, no hoping, no praying, no hoping, no praying rules on the trading floor. If you catch yourself doing any of those things or saying any of those things, you should step off for the day because you're going to lose money. Period. I like it, man. I do. I do. You know, yeah, I hear you, man, because it is remarkable. And and yes, yes, I, you know, because it's just I'm agreeing because it's interesting because how could he say they're going to pause when why wouldn't you leave yourself room? And it's almost a self fulfilling prophecy because the last thing he wants is the market thinking he's going to ease up. The best thing he wants is the market thinking he's going to hike five times in a row. And then maybe he doesn't have to, right? It's that whole self fulfilling prophecy game of like they and that's where the market sometimes gets ahead. It says, listen, the market saying this is my perception, of course, but you know, he can't tell us he's going to cut of course, because that defeats everything else he's going to do it. So they kind of adapted this mentality, maybe that that's the rhetoric. But that's what makes it even more interesting because I don't think he can go there this afternoon and I don't know how and guess what he could folks. Okay. Maybe the banking crisis is worse than we think. That's in my head, maybe an event or something because it's scaring him in the background because he knows a little bit more. I don't know. But beyond that, man, inflation is raging. So I don't know how you back yourself into a corner and say that you're going to do anything when you can just hike and then leave the door open. And what's the harm in that? What if they really were going to pause, right? Why would you tell anybody, right? You maybe give a hint, but you got almost six, seven weeks with two months of data where you can put the message out if that's going to be the case and you just leave. Right. And look at what's going on with the central bank shake up now in Australia too. This could be the ripple effect. If that spreads, you know, it's kind of funny like when you study history, revolution is something that starts one place and all of a sudden grows. It expands across the world. What happens if there's a central bank revolution? You know, we're in the middle of a banking crisis and people have had enough. They're like, okay, 2008 was a result of bad paper that was created from the 90s. You can brush that off and be like, okay, this was a big financial mistake. This time it's just complete lunacy. You know, there is no reason for the banks to be in the crisis that they are right now. It's just completely mismanagement. People think that banks are there for one reason and one reason only and the function is certain capacity and they're not. They don't function at all like a bank is supposed to function anymore. You know, and I think that that is one of the biggest problems to begin with because there's no fixing the problem if we don't change that outlook and attitude towards how banks are run. You know, banks need to go back to how they're supposed to be run and they're under the original principles of how banks, what they function as. You know, banks are not brokerage houses. They are not investment houses. You know, and that's what these, it's a free reign for people to just take other people's money and just start putting it wherever they want. You know, and that's just not how you can't run banks that way. You know, and I think the biggest shakeup with Australia, and you can see this in the currencies too. You know, look at their strength in the euro and their strength in the pound. Well, especially the pound with their inflation running at the rate they're doing, the expectations are is that the bank of England is going to continue to hike aggressively to combat that. You know, and they have high inflation with high unemployment going. These are things that are really tearing at their economy. In Australia, you know, they just added two central bank members to the to the panel. And the original outlook was that they wanted to fire everybody, fire the whole board, get rid of them completely and say, Hey, the Fed down in Australia, you're doing everything wrong and you have to stop. Now, if this continues in Australia, this is a big deal if they can follow through and eventually evict all the current members of the board and have a complete turnover. What is that kind of signal? Does that send to the other central banks? Right off the bat, you know that that central bank is no longer going to be hawkish and following the same principles that the other banks have been basically following the ring leader, the US, you know, so in Australia may not be people don't think of it as the biggest economy in the world or the biggest currency in the world, but it is one of the major currencies of the world. It's a commodity producing country. What happens is very influential. You know, I think that's we have to watch that moving forward. It's great information, man. I appreciate the time as always, Teddy, and it's always a wild one, man. We get to find out. We'll talk to you in a week. We'll see where the markets are, man. Thanks so much. Okay, have a great one.