 And unless you are, you know, under a rock this evening, it was pretty bad, right? It was pretty bad. This is the first thing. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com. Nightly wrap-up show, hope everybody is doing well. So what are we thinking? You know, what do we make of today's 2.2% move in the NASDAQ? All indexes had a big move. Dow, 1.5%, same thing was S&P with the NASDAQ and the Russell putting up 2-plus percentage points and gains. Very impressive, right? Very, very impressive. You know, at times, years ago, I used to kind of overreact when I saw big individual moves. And years and years went by, and I started always looking at the big picture. So for example, you know, we've had five days in a row of consolidating below the 50-day moving average, and then we get one big day, right? We had three months of selling, but in between, we had some pretty big days, right? Pretty big days. So it's very, very easy, especially for new traders to kind of jump the gun and start making emotional statements like that's it, this is the bottom, this is the reversal, this is this, this is that. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Again, our job is not to pretend we're smart on these internets, OK? Our job is to look at the market from a realistic adult point of view. And the most important thing for me, and I kind of was talking about it all day throughout the webinar, I think the most important part of today's session was where we closed, right? Big, big move in the indexes. The Dow, they did great, right? The NASDAQ did great. Everything closed at the highs of the day, but we closed right underneath the 50-day moving average. And I really wanted to see it close above 348, because that's where the, you see this whole 348 breakdown on March the 7th? So I wanted to see the bulls reclaim 348 on the close, and they closed 346. And today was the start of beta earning season, right? You had Netflix, and you have Tesla tomorrow. We'll get to that in a second, and you had some IBM. And the most important part was, how was the market going to react from a Netflix earnings report? And last night, if you watched last night's video, again, I was so biased going into today, why wouldn't I, right? Why wouldn't I? But again, I always know you always have to have some longs just because if the cells don't confirm, you could place some to the upside. Again, we'll get to the pivots in a second. Some nice moves, especially Tesla, Lulu, in the video today. But the most important part was, how were the market participants going to handle a good Netflix earnings? And how were the good market participants going to handle a bad earnings? And Netflix came out after the close. And unless you are under a rock this evening, it was pretty bad, right? It was pretty bad. This is the first quarter in 10 years that Netflix has lost subscribers, right? I personally love Netflix, okay? To each his own. I know some people are disappointed by the content. I like watching the movies from years ago. I like watching all the documentaries, the Netflix specials. I love the comedy specials, stuff like Ozark and Narko's and like Rest of Development and stuff like that. I love Seinfeld, I'm going through again. So I love that stuff. I'm on Netflix twice a day, especially with kids in different practices and games. Like I have a lot of time in my hand. So I'm not leaving, right? To take a page out of the Apes, I'm not leaving. Again, I don't know what I'm paying for Netflix, $15, $17, $9. I have no idea, but I really like the product. But the market has spoken and 10%, and this is the first time in 10 years, subscribers have softened and the stock got absolutely murdered. And we did notice the options market was dictating that. There was no notable, there was one guy that came in. One guy that came in, he bought like 30 grand worth of the weekly 400 calls, RIP. But it was mostly, you know, they were coming for the 307.50 puts all day. I mean, all day today. And we always joke around that, you know, somebody always knows something where they were not uncertain from taking a page from the Showtime series, Billions, but they were not uncertain. And, you know, we talked about this in the webinar and congratulations, I know a lot of you guys are short, some Netflix into the earnings. It was very, very tough to see a really good quarter, a really great quarter, because again, now that COVID restrictions are being lifted, the mass mandate, I believe today was taken out of airplanes and stuff like that and people going back to work. And, you know, it was very, very tough to see where the great quarter was gonna come. And, you know, measured, I thought the stock was gonna see maybe, you know, 310, 315, stock right now is 259 after hours. And this is taking down Disney. This is taking down, this is taking down Roku. Anything to do with streaming is being taken down. And not only that, so if you compliment that with a strong move into the close on the queues, right? If you look, you know, you have 1.6% weighted theory on Netflix into the NASDAQ 100. The queues are down, queues are down roughly three and a half points after the close. And now it's gonna put, you know, it's gonna put the bulls into a testimony. You know, can the bulls buy this dip? You know, I think tomorrow is gonna be a pretty big day because if the bulls can't buy this dip and we're still below the 50-day moving average, well, that means nothing materialistically has happened in the market. Did you guys enjoy a pretty good day to the upside today? Again, listen, look at what Tesla did. Look at, you know, look at Lulu did. Look at NVIDIA did. Again, if you look at the majority of charts, they're not great charts. They're not really good charts. Everything's still stuck in this supply. So the bulls, even without the Netflix earnings debacle, well, we're still gonna have a really, really tough time going into tomorrow. But now the bigger question lies is, can they buy this dip? Will they buy this dip? Can they shake this off as just like, you know, a random jab, a random shot to the body? Can they recover? And if the answer is yes, then yeah, if we can close tomorrow above the 50-day moving average and reclaim this 348 level, yeah, the bulls are good to go, right? The bulls are good to go and risk will be back on above the 50-day moving average. But if they don't and they give back everything that they made today because of Netflix's earnings report, then hey, again, it's gonna be very, very tough for the bulls to get off the mat. We'll see, right? We'll see what happens. There's no way you can predict it. There's no reason to guess. It's all about price action in the morning. Obviously, tomorrow the big one is going to be Tesla, right? They're coming out after earnings. Obviously, they're coming out with earnings on 420, obviously, right? But the point is from the other spectrum, we saw, we've been seeing short-term call buying on the weeklies, the 1150s, the 1160s, the 1100 calls for tomorrow's earnings. We'll see. Again, what we will very, very see. I think the value tomorrow in Tesla is definitely any weakness, any weakness into the bottom of the range. So what they usually do, and I know a lot of these stocks do the same thing, right before earnings, they're either gonna rally it or let's just pretend in the other case, they sell it into, what you wanna do is you wanna trap it into the rising support. Cause if they get trapped into rising support, then there's a shot, this thing goes right to green and you can really get a expanded run ahead of earnings. But if it does, cause right now Tesla's down like 11 after close, just like everything else. But I'd like to see the bulls get some strength, but if they not, obviously we'll go back to the sell side. So going into tomorrow, again, there's a big day for the bulls, big day for the bears. Can the bulls make this more than a one day wonder? Can they make this more deflecting negative tone for the earnings report for technology? And the bear's job is to reject them again, take down everything we made today and back to the bottom of the range. We'll see, that's the best we can say. We will see, said the blind man. So going into tomorrow, obviously, I like Tesla on any dips, any dips into rising support. I think that is the value play. See if the bulls get skewed, the bears get trapped at the bottom of the range. I like this ZBH, look at this chart on a really nice looking chart. Really like a tight, tight channel. I keep an eye on this thing. This thing starts basing, this thing could see 132. I think they make like eggs or something like that. For some reason, I remember that. I know they don't make eggs, I know chickens make eggs, allegedly. But you can see it stopped at the 10 day moving average. This thing has a history when it reclaims the 10 day moving average. It's going really big runs. It stopped at the 10 day moving average. If it could reclaim the 10 day, maybe this thing will wake up, keep an eye on that. And check out Moderna, you know, Moderna now that like COVID is dying out and tomorrow like, I'll give you a perfect example. Like we haven't gone on vacation. Oh, I'm gonna say this much. We've been talking to Hamptons and stuff, but we haven't gone to like on an airplane over two years since COVID has started. Tomorrow my wife is taking my kids. She's taking them to Miami for a week, right? I got some stuff to take care of here. So I will be home with the poodle. This is my, as much as my vacation, it is on theirs. No matter how much you love your family, no matter how much you love your wife and your husband and everything else, every man, every woman has their limits. Sometimes we need a break. So they're going on vacation, but the point is if they were comfortable enough, if I was comfortable enough to have them go on an airplane, then you know names like Moderna is not gonna have the same staying power as it was when we didn't have a vaccine or we still had this global lockdown pandemic. So I like this thing. This thing starts losing the bottom of the channel here. I like this thing to the short side as well. And the video, keep an eye on the video. There's still a lot of call buying on the video. If the video bounces back with, if the video bounces back with the rest of technology, I kind of like this whole range here. I want to keep an eye on this thing and see if it works out. So that's it. It's kind of a, let's see what happens for tomorrow. As you could possibly imagine, 90% of my at least game plan was to the downside. And as you can imagine, none of them confirmed to the downside because everything rallied. And this is where beta becomes really, really good. You don't need, you know, you don't need 10 of these stocks to work. You just need one really good one because the great part about beta, they're not gonna go up a dollar, they're gonna go up 50 cents, they go up, they go up 10, 15, $23 depending on how big the range is. So you had NVIDIA today, 221, 228 to be a big macro level, needs to build. NVIDIA went to 224, not a huge move. It got stuffed a little bit at supply. Tesla was a good one. Again, there was a catalyst obviously for tomorrow. They got their prices raised today at Credit Suisse. If they make a pre-earnings run, might as well be today, right? No time then, better than the present. 1015 and 1026 last week's highs needs to confirm for a 1036 push. Tesla was perfect, was absolutely perfect. It took out the 1015, it took out the 1026 and it didn't get to 1036. It got to 1035, I guess, potato, potato, but it really nice move there as well. Obviously, the value tomorrow is to the dip side and everything else I had to the short side never came close to even confirming. You can see how many stocks I had to the short side that never even came close to confirming. 1026 next stop, 223.86 next supply and traded right to 223.70s. Tesla, 1036 next stop, 1035 and that was it. Oh, and congratulations guys. Again, congratulations for all you guys. Congratulations for all you guys who did have, who traded either have puts into the clothes or traded after hours, but here's the big pivot, 333, 330 is gonna be the big area of support. Obviously, that was the sell kill zone and they were coming in for the buyers, 307.50 ahead of the close. So hopefully everybody did well. Again guys, remember it's all about research. It's all about having an opinion and having that opinion play out. We're gonna be rolling every day, right? Sometimes the market doesn't go in your direction, but that's fine. This is where you always play devil's advocate. This is why you trade both sides of the market. At the end of the day, it's not being right. It's being prudent guys have a great day. God bless everybody and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.