 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Every training day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now, toll-free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Now, Tom and Tommy O'Brien. Welcome, folks. Appreciate your garal and a problem with us out here. We have the Dow Industries down 46, Nasdaq's down 6. S&P's up 3.5. Gold's up 220, trading at $14.82 an ounce. You've got Silver up 5 cents. $16.97 an ounce. Light Sweet Crude up 43 cents. $58.87 a barrel. This is where a spot here, Tom, that it can't seem to break it. You had a monster day yesterday in oil. Sure did. And it's laying there, man. It's just laying there. And, you know, the meeting, they got a meeting out there, the Saudis, actually for the year, back down on the amount of oil that they produced. OPEC, right? Bringing it out? Is that Saudis as well? The Saudis in general. The numbers came out. It would make sense, right? Less supply, boost up that, a Ramco IPO. That's right. But guess what? We get the United States pumpin' oil, man. We sure do. We sure do. That is the wild card. Notes and bonds. You get the 10-year note down 8 ticks, trading $129.05, the 30-year off 19, that $150.804 in Kingdala. Kingdala down 195 ticks, trading $97.453. That's making, that's trying to make it to, it's a $97.107 lower ban there, folks. The year was at $110. The pound has caught a bid. That's $131 that broke out yesterday. And the yen is at $108.81. Let's go over to our man, Mr. Kevin. He's a TD Ameritrade. Think of swimmers who do every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. And don't forget, folks, every trading day here. 11 to 12, Eastern Standard Time. You want to understand the options market. You want to understand strategies. You want to understand futures. All the above, defined risk. Really important in a market like right now. No doubt, Kevin has been shopping all week at Restoration Hardware. I guess so, man. He took those shots. There's a shot position, folks, of 39% in Restoration Hardware. Is that a big number? It is when it's up. Restoration Hardware right now is trading up about $14. Kevin Hicks, what's going on? Good morning, Tom. Good morning, Tommy. You know, I want to talk about something that you guys were talking about just a minute ago. And that is crude oil. Yes. Because, you know, there's an OPEC meeting going on right now. And what you guys touched on is very significant. And what it is, the number 12.9 million barrels a day. And that is what the U.S. oil crude oil production is up to. 12.9 million barrels a day. And since the beginning of the year, guys, that is up over a million barrels a day in terms of U.S. production. And so every single month and every single quarter that the U.S. produces more and more crude oil, any news coming out of OPEC and any news coming out of a meeting like this in Vienna gets less and less significant in terms of its ability to move crude oil. You know, isn't it amazing, Kevin, that you think we're in this spot? I mean, I remember, you know, when I first started at the Gold Report, and that's a long time ago, it was 2001, but that's when all those books are out about peak oil. Okay. You know, and even when I started, I said, you know, I've been through this before, because the oil embargo, the Arab oil embargo, that was a disaster. But that was supposed to be the end of the world also. And then all of a sudden, you know, I mean, the bottom line is that we really have production, you know, in a huge way now. Right. Exactly. And the U.S., they've got a Saudi Aramco IPO coming up shortly. They're going to do whatever they can to get crude oil futures as high as they can. But they don't have the fundamentals on their side. Right. They can, it's very difficult to measure if they're compliant. Yes. You know, so there's so many microeconomic issues affecting crude oil. But once you think about it, some Americans have gasoline prices. Oh, yeah. And right now we're going into Christmas holiday season with more and more people, with more and more money in their pocket, because gasoline prices are lower. That's like a raise to every American. No, it is. And that's the one consistency, I'd say, in all our lives. I mean, if you have a car and you have to go to work. I was just saying, I don't know how you avoid it, right? Whether you live in a house with air conditioning, heat, driving. I wasn't even thinking about that. Yeah. Right. And particularly now, you know, we're in the winter. I mean, it's cold out, you know, in Chicago, it's cold in Boston. I mean, that's when some heavy-duty heating bills come into effect, man. I mean, heating oil is more eastern than the Chicago area Midwest doesn't have a lot of heating oil anymore. But still, gasoline prices, I mean, that affects every single person, especially in the Midwest, where there's still a lot of drivers. And we can have this debate about what the 20-year effect of electric cars and all that is going to be and millennials and what they're doing. But right now, gasoline prices, lower gas prices at the thought means more money in American consumers, pockets who already have a better job and are making more money and already have better, more money in their, you know, more disposable income in their pockets. So I think this is just going to be a pretty good holiday field for these retailers and American general. No, there's no doubt. And you know, we were doing the oil numbers yesterday, Kevin, right? Yeah. It was a dry down, folks, a big dry down on crude. But guess what? It was a build of 3.9 million barrels and gasoline. Yeah. And you see that a lot. Crude will go down, but gas goes up. And well, where does, what affects the American consumer? It's not necessarily crude oil prices and gas prices, right? Right. None of us buy barrels of oil. That's right. Exactly. Not yet anyway, Tom. No. It's just the driving deal. And we're familiar, Boston. They have some great infrastructure for, you know, the tea around there and so forth. New York as well. Born Florida, Kevin. Unfortunately, we don't have that. We have drivers everywhere still down here. Like you're talking about the Midwest as well. It's a little unfortunate. But in terms of crude, man, everybody's driving. We don't have that rail, that train system. New urban cities like Tampa is an up and coming new city. Still young in terms of, you know, compared to places like Chicago and big cities. You know, they don't have the infrastructure. No. You're right, Tommy. If you get to get commute to work, you are commuting in a car. We should hopefully we spend some, man, because we got some traffic around the roads, man. We can't even build roads fast enough. Great for the economy. You know, people coming down here, jobs, businesses. But man, oh man, trying to keep up on the traffic basis is intense around here right now. You have a wealth of riches in Florida and people want to move there. We love those tourism dollars in Texas. We do. What are we looking at today, Kevin? We still have some good names. Even though it's very late in the early season, Ulta. We love the dive into Ulta because it's such a fun stock to do. Like Folio is going to cover it. We're going to cover, you know, we got some great trades coming up. It's going to be a good one. Let's see what, what is the expected move? Because we just pulled up the chart, Kevin, and was it their last earnings? I think it was that they dropped basically. Pretty big miss, yeah. Let's see what they're one day. You got to love it. We go over the annualized. What is it, Kevin? $21. $21. There it is. It's right there on the thinkorswim platform. All right. Folks, right here, 45 minutes from now, outstanding program. Kevin, you have a great one, safe one. Look forward to speaking the next Tuesday. Have a great weekend and we look forward to the show in 45 minutes. Always great talking to you, Brian. Have a great weekend. You too, Kevin. Thanks, man. Stand right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. If you're not currently using the Taz Profile Scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities, then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The Taz Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. Heated by Steve Dahl, Taz understands that in today's technological world, the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. 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Dow right now at R48, you get the NASDAQ R14, S&Ps are off two and a half gold. Gold's up about 90. We get the dollar and make its way down to that 97107 area. And as you come over to our website folks, at TFNN you are going to see right in featured content Tom's morning market report. So it's always nice man, when you have some things happening this morning. We talked about restoration hardware, right? We haven't gotten into dollar general yet this morning. So let's go up that chart man because things change a lot from when I do this update at 9 a.m. The headline was markets look to open higher on a nicely weekly jobless number. Haven't commented on this yet as well, but 203,000 for the weekly jobless claims. That number lowest since mid-April man. Pretty interesting especially ahead of the non-farm payroll number tomorrow. Man, we had a bad number yesterday. I was going to say, right? So you get a bad ADP number, only like 63,000 jobs added, but you get a great unemployment number for 203,000 and then we get the biggest number of all non-farm payrolls tomorrow. But to pull up where I think I had dollar general in here, because we had United, we have Nike getting an upgrade from Goldman. So there's dollar general this morning, right? We were at 157 even. You spiked all the way to 162. But man, oh man, you pull it up right now and dollar general came out with great earnings. They given it all up man. They're up less than 1% now after being up to 162.28. And I had a few of the accolades they had in here. Great numbers man, when you look at this, right? Net sales rising almost 9% to 6.99 billion above the estimate of 6.92. Net income, 365 million from 334 a year earlier. The expectation was a buck 38. So they come in a buck 42, buck 48. Same store sales, 4.6%. They were only looking for 3.34. What's it going to take not to sell it off? Isn't it amazing? Just across the board. So there's some more action in there for sure. And just to jump back, I don't think they've had the conference call yet because I always love one. That's their earnings number. And you'll see on this chart when the conference call begins, maybe they've got that scared till sometime today. I'm not sure. But check out the link. I'm putting these out most mornings. And red hat as well, man. Look at that number on red hat. Earnings per share, 279. They were looking for 223. Big number. Not fun to be one of the 39% that are short. Oh, that's right. No, that's right. I was jumping around now. This is red hat. No, I think that's restoration hardware. Excuse me. I'm sorry. Restoration. Yes, yes, yes. Thanks. That's a big number. Yeah. And the shot position in this stock, folks, okay, this is just, you know, 39% shot position and they're coming out with numbers like this. And, you know, I guess what's also happening here is that what I didn't realize, they're not changing their MO, but what they're doing with these lodge, have you been the one in Tampa? I have. They have one in an international mall that practically looks like a hotel. It's so... And so is it a big food deal there, too? I'm not aware. I guess what they're doing is that, I mean, they sell $10,000 coaches. Sure, right. That's what they're known for. But now it's also going, I was reading this thing, that they have all of that, but then in between all of that in these big buildings, right? They got a big restaurant going. You know what I mean? So they're making it like a destination, too. Okay. You know? The first time that I saw it at international mall, I literally thought they had put a hotel in the mall because it had that type of a presence. And there's only, like, four of those in the country, you know? The ones like, yeah. The big monster ones, like this, okay? Okay. And by the way, they're doing something right. I mean, you know... They must be right. They're getting accused of a million different things by the shot sellers, but the reality has says that those numbers... And now they got Warren Buffett as an investor as well. Right, right. So the stock, even from the open, man, we've shot up from about 210, now trading at 218.43 up 6.2%, as you said. Like 40% stock. Yeah. And just so we finished it up with Kevin, but just to, you know, we talk about it occasionally, but the Analyze tab on the Thinkorswim platform. So here's Alta, and we talked about it briefly, the sell-off. We'll just put it on a four-hour. That makes it... We'll put it on daily. This, I believe, was their last earnings, coming out in August 28th. You were up at $337, and you then finished the next day at $237, a $100 drop-off. Now, interesting enough, because you go over the Analyze tab, you pull up Alta, the one-day market expect-and-move, $21.77, that's what Kevin was talking about. So that's basically the volatility that's priced in in either direction. That's a big move when you're talking about $240 stock. That's about 9%, but the last time they had earnings, they moved $100 down. So if you're going to be the one selling volatility, you're going to need some money, right? You wouldn't be selling it for peanuts, man. If you're giving somebody a defined risk trade, that's what you're doing when you're selling volatility, right? You're selling somebody else the ability to lock it in an option. So it'll be interesting to see Alta when they come out with their earnings. So we get natural gas, right? We sure do. Yeah, let's jump over. Perfect. Let's pull it up. It's cold across the country, but guess what? We get plenty of natural gas, so we'll see where this little natural gas market wants to go. We sure will, and there's oil jumping around a lot today. We'll jump in here in the market, jump into our commodities. We'll jump into natural gas. I'm going to refresh this real quick to make sure all of the spreads are available. Now, let's see where we're trading that. Natural gas. Talk about some volatility recently, right? Yeah. We'll jump into the 11 a.m. spreads first. We're looking at the January contract. We're trading at 241 right now. We got about five minutes until that number comes out. Okay. At 10.30 a.m. Eastern time. So a little bit of volatility. 2 a.m., we're trading at 240. We'll make it all the way up to 244. The 11 a.m. spreads, we do have the possibility of trading. It looks like they go from 245, would be the pivot point, upward or downward. Now, if you just want a straight future play, you know, you can always, the 235 to 255 spread is pretty much right in the middle of where you were. Oh, yeah. And you're not going to be paying premium. No, right. That's interesting, yeah. And then, so the new ones are going to be pretty much an identical trade. And that's because these are set into every five or 10 pennies. We haven't had a ton of movement just yet. Let's just see if we get a 240 price point. So here's a 240 price point. Now, if I'm bullish, I love the one where you're just barely in the money because you're not paying a ton of premium. It's just like an option where you get in, maybe 30, 40, 50 cents in the money. So you got your bullish... Not a lot of time left, yeah. No, you got the 230, all right. So you got a 240 contract. The contract's trading at 241.8. And this market's ticking at about 242.9, but 243.1. So you're paying, you know, the difference between the premiums, the difference from 241.7, where the market is 243. So about 13 ticks. Not a bad trade, though, when you look at that risk reward, right? It's not. Your loss is capped at 240. That's the reason why you're getting this type of a risk for this type of a reward. And that's $32 to 368. Yeah. And basically, you could almost call it unlimited profit potential because the odds that it goes above 280 by 230 is almost zero. And you're capped at 240. Not a bad trade. If you happen to be bullish on the flip side of that, you want to go out of the money. You're going to be paying a little bit more premium. As you can see, that on that trade, we were paying about 17 ticks, 16 ticks. You go out of the money, just as you would on an automated option. You're now risking only 16, but you're selling it at 238.3. The market's at 241.3 unless you're almost a full three pennies, which would be 30 ticks, right? Yeah. But you're only putting up $16. So there's your... And that's still 230 also. And as we're talking, this is moving right back down to that 240 strike price. So we can just kind of calibrate what it would cost if you want to do the stray volatility trade. You got your bearish trade on the left. You're selling it. You got your bullish trade on the right. You're buying it. And you're looking at about 45 bucks, four and a half pennies away until 230. So we'll find out when we get back. Stay right there folks. Tell them you're not coming right back. With important market action. I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. Sign up for your 30 day free trial to my daily newsletter Market Insights Day by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Well, go get them folks. David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30 day free trial to David's daily newsletter, the Path of Lease Resistance with no obligation to pay anything. David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently. And if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning, then visit the front page of TFNN.com. And if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning then visit the front page of TFNN.com. And if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning, then visit the front page of TFNN. And you'll find the Path of Lease Resistance under Trading Newsletters. For all the details and to start your 30 day free trial today, log on to TFNN.com now. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including Gartly's, ABC's, Butterfly's, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. So, gas stockpiles fell 19 BCF, huh? That's right. Looks like the median analyst's estimate was for a decline of 23 billion cubic feet. The whisper number they had in there was for a decline of about 17. So right in the middle of the two almost. And the moment of truth we'll jump over and see how the market is reacting to that news. Jumping over we got the contract trading up a bit. So we get a little bit of a spike. The contract was trading just ticking back towards about just under 241 when we came into that break at 27 past. You got January natural gas now trading at 242 40 climbing a little bit higher. And to recap what we're looking at here, if you took both sides of the trade pure volatility you were looking at almost four and a half pennies and movement you needed it in one way or the other to break even. So we're at about three pennies right now. Now what you could always do if you expected let's just say, you know, when you think about managing this trade. Okay, I was looking for a surprise number. I'm really bearish the contract overall but I made a volatility trade. Maybe you say to yourself, you know what, I'm going to take my money off the top side. Yeah. You take off 37 bucks you almost cover your costs. Maybe you were in a 43 45 whatever it is. Right. And then you still have exposure. This contract stays active until 230. Which is a long time. It is a long time and you can even see that you can almost get right back out of break even right now. She had 37 on one side you had eight on the other side. So that's a tight bid off for spread. But if you just want to let this one run, if it comes back down even a few pennies you take that one off maybe you lock in a profit because maybe you say to yourself, you know what I don't see it running higher but guess what as we say that it's inch and higher man 2434 and rising at the price of that January natural gas. Wow. Yeah. Let's go take a look at so. One sec. So one of the biotechs out here today folks are just getting toasted and roasted in a huge way. Sage therapeutics spread. I've seen this in the past. Yeah. Rung of Bell when I saw the headlines this morning as well. So down 84 dollars you're trading $65 and if you want to see a mess of a stock anyway it's like. You want to talk about defined risk man. Oh my God. Does Nadex have any Sage therapeutics spreads because that might be a good place to trade. So high is January of 2018 $195 and then it tested this again only this summer. Yep. And that was $193 and that was after making it all the way down to a low of 79 bucks in December of last year. A little volatility right. A little bit. And what are you doing? You're coming right back to where it broke out from. So you know $59.65 is the breakout. You're at 56 and I rejected it. And we get into the news because. Yeah. Let's see. Any time you're down it's a monster failure. 60% in a day. Yes. Key depression study fails to show benefit. So it's unfortunate anytime you know these these biotechs fail because it usually means they have a drug that's gone to the wayside. Lost almost two thirds of its value after an experimental treatment for major depressive disorder failed to reach its primary target in a key study. The late stage trial dubbed mountain showed patients receiving Sage 217 didn't get more relief than those taking a placebo for two weeks. Well that doesn't get much more intense than that, right? When literally they show no result more than a placebo. The results cast out on the future of the drug which had been a key part of investors broadly on Sage. That's that stuff and it's just unfortunate man you know depression a big problem with a lot of people out there. It's always a shame when you know you have hopes out there for a drug and I think that you know he's talking Oh yeah they take it up and look at the earnings just burning cash man. Yeah burning cash. So let's say biogen biogen supposed to be coming out today. Now this has been highly volatile also with their Alzheimer's drug. Yeah look at this thing so that's when they let me bring it back because they have a drop they do. Yeah right. Yeah there you go. They came out and said that the Alzheimer's drug showed nothing they're going to take it off the table right and then. That was March of 2019. Yep and then they came back out just in October and said you know what further analysis of the data of the study showed there we are going to go to the FDA for approval and so what are they looking for? Let's see what does it say? Biogen stunned Alzheimer's research as a match when it said the highly weighted Alzheimer's treatment. The Duke kind of new bug. Was unlikely to work seven months later the company reversed course and said the drug did work after all at least in one of two large trials. That's not how it works isn't it? Isn't it supposed to be two of two large trials? So today on Thursday biogen scientists will present detail results from those trials for the first time a special hour long session at a meeting of Alzheimer's specialist in San Diego Okay. Much as riding on the presentation both for the pharmaceutical industry and for the millions of Alzheimer patients and their families grappling with the incurable disease. I mean many times you know you got a company like Target coming out with earnings it's just straight up dollars and cents and that matters in people's lives right you get retirement you get stuff like that but it doesn't matter as much as if a drug ever comes out like interesting because they're presenting in front of what you could call almost their peers right almost more important than like an FDA board those are the most important but you'll get a lot of reaction I think immediately about that presentation how it goes what the expectation might be in the future you'll probably have a lot of analysts digging hardcore into that you might get upgrades and downgrades depending on how that goes and it would seem that that would be the cleanest way to come out and say okay this is what I have and I think it's great so convince the specialists that are field right that are all time specialists yeah right because especially because just like I said at least in one of the two trials I'm not a specialist but drugs just can't work in one trial not work in the other so what is what is going to be the reason that they say it is going to work why didn't it work in all the trials why it work in one out of the two and can you convince the people who know the most about that field it's right because it's the right question to ask exactly exactly what is the difference what do we do and that's why a lot of the analysts in these companies that are brilliant you get a biotech analyst man a lot of times they'll have a background in that stuff because you got to because you got to know what's going on in terms of the field whether it's a biology background whether it's some type of medical background because you're always going to get a PR spin from the companies right you're always no matter what doesn't mean it's a lie you're just spinning things as best you can even if it's in a kind of spinning things as positive as you can but they're not going to spin they got a lot to spin in terms of what happened in March and tell us how that doll changed through October no no no no no let's take a look at some of the higher volume equities and we'll see whether we get volume in this market what we did do yesterday was get a contraction of volume as we went to higher price today what do you have out here you got what is this we couldn't for Slack technologies they came out with numbers 21 cents I believe the numbers were pretty good too Sage is the big move we're down 83 you got at home that's down that's a big one that's down three dollars yeah they got apples up a bit a bit buck 45 they continue to march on yeah okay you get that trans ocean that's still struggling let's dig into Slack if we can cause you were talking about them so down trends IPO broken this month potential support around 20 let's see if they get into okay that's that's not the link we got and we want I guess just go back so it is work we're work I'm just going to pull up the news on them Slack feelings outlook to keep a lid on the stock all right we'll pull this up during the break and come back with it now it's his record third quarter fiscal year 2020 results Sarah Defolks Tommy and I come right back our phone number is 8779 2766 all right right back folks if you're in the CD market and looking for secure investment the Tiger First Mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000 according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20 is 3.1% a $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of 1,550 per year or 6,200 over the four-year period that same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First Mortgage 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TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information welcome back folks now now it's down 47 now it's got 11 it's got two markets kind of just laying here it is we had a little bit of a sell-off around the opening bell and not too much action this whole hour it's got a lot of stock numbers so slack down pretty marginally today and we pulled it up you're jumping through so this is with the direct listing they didn't do an IPO they just kind of put the shares out and said trade wherever you may be that's why when you go into the issue price they actually don't have an IPO price that they went out to because they just released shares into the market you'll see some bad beatings out here oh yeah when we go from highs to low they came out we'll pull up the chart in a moment for sure 745 million to 760 the estimate had been 754 so pretty close fiscal year revenue 621 to 623 they were looking for 603 to 610 fourth quarter adjusted loss per share 6 to 7 cents the estimate had been 6.5 pretty close there as well pretty close numbers you know all things considered to the estimates they were looking for third quarter revenue 168.7 million the estimate was only 156 third quarter loss per share 16 cents and that was they had a big loss 98 cents quarter over quarter I guess I mean it really comes down to they're still not making money no no pull up there it is so then that burn is 85 85 to 80 million is that for the year though it's just a quarter that's for the year yeah so 2020 the fiscal 2028 they expected burn 85 million analysts re-sells that's a lot more tim than you see most of the stocks in this environment especially and to pull up the shares of slack that's where you see I think they went public in June and it's been cut in half since that time 42 to 21 man big number that is a big number they got a lot of competition in terms of you know you got Microsoft teams out there the last you want to hear a list of the companies I would never want to Microsoft Apple Amazon Google Netflix Disney you know and they'd all compete but man if you're competing with any one of those companies you better be hitting the thing you know your business plan on all cylinders because they're competing with you know and I'm not even Microsoft teams similar you know they're basically an integrated chatting I'm sure CRM Salesforce probably has something that they have in the works or something you know where there's a lot of companies Disney Amazon if they start seeing the slacks pulling in a billion dollars a year on a messaging platform to coordinate when's the Amazon slack coming out not totally so Nike we get Nike up a buck forty seven so what was the news they got an upgrade from Goldman I see yeah so they get an upgrade let's see what they said because I had the quote I had this on the front page destructive strategy earns them an upgrade let's see yeah so a long brand combined with the disruptive and innovative strategy these characteristics will position the athletic wear maker for multi-year growth expansion and margins and higher returns on invested capital they have the analyst Alexandra Wellvis wrote in a note she sees a sharp acceleration and earnings growth and predicts a four three year earnings per share CAGR of 19% versus just five in the prior yeah I wonder what the innovative deal is they don't have that and just the final price target of 112 versus 95 trading at about 95 right now might take they're they're crushing it online man we talked about it a little bit right in terms of direct to consumer online I had mentioned we were talking to our man Kevin Hicks at one point couple weeks back that I've purchased Nike shoes direct from Nike myself in the last two months online I actually purchased one pair I didn't like exactly how they look a little different one pair returned it bought another pair more closer what I expected they're not going to be selling them selling them on Amazon anymore they're kind of cutting them they want complete control of their brand and yeah the charge just been gangbusters man even back it up even a little bit more right like a five year look at that I mean just they really had it from two solid years that's October 17 you go from 50 bucks and you're flirting it with about at 100 big number man no doubt and you know sneakers man you just think about the amount of folks that wear sneakers especially in the U.S. man we love our expensive those Air Jordans man there's a reason why Michael Jordan's a billionaire has a lot to do with sneakers imagine that they got everyone used to sneakers pretty amazing it is eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight jumping around a little bit we're on sports do you see the Mets are probably going to play out nothing like another hedge fund billionaire coming into the Steve Cohen yeah so it looks like they're going to put a five year deal yeah so it's interesting how it's going to play out the valuation on the Mets $2.6 billion it looks like you can't argue with the fact that sports right now the amount of money they can sell their media for because you got to watch sports live it's only a matter of time until Amazon Netflix whatever streaming giants out there wants to compete for those packages and yeah so it looks like the owners are going to be able to kind of maintain their CEO Sun COO role for about five years make the transition easier and he's going to take about 80% of the big Mets it is a big number it is and that's you know I can see that that's a very easy way of selling it when you know you can hang there for five years too you know what I mean that was the big scandal with him and his partner with Madoff you know so they had to give back a lot of money at that point and they should have man because they might as well have known and been complicit so you know that's the reason why you hear about Bobby Bonilla his contract I think it's up to like 2047 or some insane amount of money because they were trying to push out every single dollar they had they were signing people like 30 and 40 year contracts because why would you not when you just took your money gave it to Madoff he's guaranteeing 18% a year and then you're paying out these people 40 years later on money that you're basically stealing from the market by giving it to Madoff but that's why Bonilla he still gets a million dollars every year he's been retired for like 12 years or something like that and it has to do with the fact the reason they were structuring contracts like that is because they were investing with Madoff and getting unrealistic returns if you're getting unrealistic guaranteed returns every single dollar you're ever going to pay anybody into the future right and so that's when you factor in that type of financial transactions that's not how the financial world works the fact that that's what they were doing they knew they were guaranteed money that the market couldn't produce so they were structuring their own payables in an unrealistic way that nobody else would ever do knowing that they were guaranteed money that the market couldn't produce for anybody else really so yeah they well it's intriguing there I guess that Steve Cohen will pick up all that debt too you buy the company the bottom line you pick up the contract and it's not a lot of money compared to the amount of market cap of the entire business right right yeah let's go take a look at the XAU the HUI so bottom line is that you get the dollar coming down the lower end of the consolidation here we we did have the XAU as well as the HUI break top side on Tuesday you know yesterday the volume was a little bit lighter 26 million Tuesday was a beauty 40 million stay right there folks Tommy and I come right back I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trade that we do it's the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of tfn.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls to sign up today if you're a trader in the market looking for Tom O'Brien's Gold Report the summer is over gold is trading back above $1,500 and the 10 year treasury is hovering at around 1.5% Tom O'Brien has been writing his weekly gold report for almost 18 years there's no one that knows more about how the gold market trades and how gold mining equities react new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning Tom publishes his weekly gdx the dollar as well as more than 30 different mining equities as of September 3 gold report subscribers have 5 active open positions with an average unrealized profit of almost 38% for each position to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up today by visiting TFNN.com since 1984 market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman Basil Chapman advises his 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So after the 1999 season 20 years ago right now Rockwell the the Mets owed Bonilla Bonilla's agent offered the Mets a deal Bonilla would defer the payment for a decade Mets would pay him an annual paycheck of 1.19 million starting in 2011 ending in 2035 totaling 29.8 million the owner Fred Wilpom accepted the deal mostly because he was heavily invested with the Ponzi scheme of Madoff and the 10% guaranteed returns it should say that the Madoff was promising that he was getting outweigh the 8% that the market was going to have payment to Bonilla for 5.9 and as a result it says it was a big inquiry and it should have been because anytime what I said to you red flag right you don't get guaranteed returns above the market guaranteed return anytime somebody tells you that folks wake up he's a smart businessman he should have known that something was going on there as many people seem like they did and making a deal like this even cements that further right but Bonilla good for him man because he's got a million 2035 and his last game played was 2001 not bad you got 35 years of a million bucks of pop coming to you after you play and he was an amazing player so it's a good deal Bobby Bonilla day July 1st he gets that paycheck July 1st until 2035 man pretty amazing it is let's go inside the NDX just before we finish up let's see what the strength versus the weaknesses so you get JD.com up 2.5 and you get a $1.2 in general with their earnings maybe Alexa pharmaceutical let's down 6 you got work day off 1.9 okay folks stay right there we got think of some coming up next I'm Ambas the Chapman Steve Rhodes Dave White I'll be back this afternoon thanks thanks man don't forget to check out the front page of T.F.N. folks morning mock report Tom O'Brien