 The outcome yesterday is not a surprise, not to those of us who have been studying this. The chairman now is Dr. Dahio Kallick, former ambassador, as you know, in London for five years. He had made two forecasts, one that there would be a referendum, as Laos Mare goes, three years, and secondly that it held it would be lost. In the book that Thomas referred to, we identify the cause of that, putting it very simply and as uncontroversely as is possible, as English nationalism. It has, of course, crystallized around the question of immigration. So I think that we now are going to live with the consequences of that for quite a considerable time. So the effects we projected very recently were on the markets, on sterling, currency, and on the Prime Minister Cameron himself. We know what has happened in the past few hours, both in relation to the markets and sterling. And, of course, Mr. Cameron announces retirement for resignation as Prime Minister at 8.15 this morning. We know as well the timetable for what lies ahead. We know that under the timetable that Prime Minister Cameron has himself laid down, his successor will be elected within the next three months. Personally, I would think it'll be much quicker than that. And personally, I think the candidate for the new office is quite clear. Once the bell is sounded by the timetable is started by the new Prime Minister, we know that we have two years inside which to complete the negotiations. We know as well, of course, that period of time can be extended if there is unanimous agreement amongst all of the parties that will be, say, all 28, currently 28 member states. We know the process of the negotiations are governed by two articles of the treaties. Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union and Article 218 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. Article 50 is the one that sets in on the timetable. But it also has a very important element within it that's important to remember, that it says that the negotiations are conducted by the departing state with the European Council. So the European Council, as we know, is composed of Prime Ministers essentially and one or two presidents. But it's very much therefore located at the core of the European Union in the European Council. The European Council will nominate a negotiator to conduct this business on its own behalf. There's not yet known who that is or should be, but I said over a month ago that the null probability is going to be President Donald Tusk, President of the Council, who, of course, appeared earlier on this morning, making the first, giving the first reaction of the institutions to the outcome of the referendum. Probably assisted by President Jean-Claude Juncker on behalf of the Commission. Under the article, we know that there are two items on the agenda for the negotiations to be completed within the two years. Arrangements on the one hand for withdrawal and the determination of the future relationship of the United Kingdom with the European Union. Neither of them are going to be easily disposed of. And in fact, the disentanglement of the United Kingdom from the European Union is something that feels as all I think with the greatest apprehension and fear. It's just so complicated that I don't even really know how it's going to be accomplished. I did voice the opinion a month ago that it would not be done inside of two years. As for the new relationship, well, you can think of that yourself in terms of how practical it is. We know as a consequence of Article 50 that the United Kingdom will be isolated in these negotiations, yet now negotiate in the sense that it negotiates only on its own behalf. The other 27 member states, constituting the European Council, will negotiate as a unit. And in fact, this new process will begin as early as next Monday. There will be a meeting on the margin of the European Council meeting. The 27 member states will meet under the presidency of Donald Tusk to begin to work on their negotiating mandate and also the procedures that they're going to adopt. As I said over a month ago, illegally the United Kingdom will remain, of course, a member of the European Union until such time as the new treaty is given effect because that's almost certainly is what it's going to be. But politically everything has changed, of course, and from next Monday on, there'll be rather cold breeze blowing around the chair occupied by the Prime Minister of Britain. To all intents and purposes, I speak as a former politician. He's now in a completely different relationship than he had even 24 years ago, 24 hours ago. The concern, I think that we in this institute and here in Dublin, our concern has got to be with the political and economic effects of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom. What we have used as an expression in the press release we've issued earlier today on behalf of the Board is that it will be an asymmetric shock. That's an expression borrowed as some of you, a lot of you will hope will recall, from earlier debates we had on membership of the Economic and Monetary Union. The question of asymmetric shocks at various components of the Union was something that occupied us here at great length. Someone has had a question of an asymmetric shock of how economic and political is perhaps using terminology that's not too easily understood. There's a bit of a cake. So we've also implied as a synonym, disproportionate effect, which I think expresses it very clearly. I think Ireland has got to get this point over very clearly and very simply with the other 26 member states with whom we will be negotiating. And I think it sets a negotiating framework for Ireland. It's not that you're looking for a special or singular deal with the United Kingdom. It is to say that within the context of an overall deal being done with the United Kingdom, that the existence of disproportionate impact on this country is something that has got to be recognized and accepted by the other 26 and that as a consequence they're going to, well, not give us special treatment but certainly give us sympathetic treatment. I think as a consequence, we really have four interlocutors upon whom we must concentrate. Since Gareth Fitzgerald was foreign minister back in 73, we have always positioned Germany and France at the core of our negotiating strategy. Therefore, that should remain to be the case and I think that it means that Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande for such time as both of them maintain themselves in office. We would be the two key people with whom the T-shirt will be liaising. At the same time, the other two are the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, whom I mentioned earlier and of course the president of the Commission, Junker. Those four people really are at the core of our negotiations strategy. We know that there will be no special deal for Ireland as I mentioned in the sense of bilateral but it's got to be part of an overall deal. Now that's going to be a tricky diplomatic challenge but I have absolutely every confidence in the DFA and the Department T-shirt to pull that off. In these negotiations, I think we would be wanting to put the point clearly before our colleagues, our friends, the other member states of the impact on Northern Ireland. It's obvious that there's going to be now, obvious there's going to be a referendum in Scotland or looking at the possible withdrawal of Scotland from the United Kingdom. But we always anticipated here as long as over 20 years ago, is that this is going to have significant political and psychological knock-on effects in Northern Ireland. It goes to the very heart and very core of the self-consciousness of the Unionist population. The very foundations upon which to our membership with the United Kingdom rests is going to be pulled from under them. There isn't any doubt as a consequence that we are going to have here in the Republic the set of problems that nobody else is going to confront. People of my age who would even privately admit to it would recall what the situation was like in the late 1960s, beginning in 1968 with the civil rights marches and August of 1969 with the outbreak of violence first in Derry and then in Belfast. And of course the terrifying consequences are through the 70s and into the 80s. We don't want to see that reoccur. And therefore we need the sympathetic understanding of our colleagues and other member states to ensure that it doesn't happen. We're going to deal with the border consequences as the chairman has said to Blair Horan who's an expert in this area. Clearly the disproportionate effects on our economy especially on trade that'll be handled by John McRain, Director General of the British Irish Chamber of Commerce. And the effect on the EU as a whole, the introduction of a new dynamic into the EU which is inevitable now will be handled by Pat Cox. And of course the economic consequences as a whole will be handled by Donald Brown. My concluding remarks are purely personal and along the following lines that really, I think it will be unhelpful to talk of doomeday scenarios for the European Union. It came into being before the United Kingdom membership. They refused to join in the creation of the coal and steel community. They refused to join in the creation of the European economic community and then set up a rival organization to try to undo it. And having failed, they applied for membership not once and not twice across but three times. And now they're parting. I think there are one or two agenda items that we've got to look at very carefully and accepting life as it is now. We should look at the economic opportunities that arise from the departure of a major economy such as the relocation of various functions that not just manufacturing but also head office functions and of course major sectors of the economy such as the financial services sector. And the fact that foreign direct investment will now be re-diverted away from the United Kingdom and some of it hopefully will come in here. And within the EU, I think we've got to look at the consequences and that because of the special relationship we have with the United Kingdom that we could play a very positive role that'll be in the informed insider offering wise advice. I know that that has already happened. We need a clear headed assessment of Irish interests. And from our experience here, that has been very expertly and exhaustively done by the Department of the Taoiseach. I think that the game that they currently have got put together identifies a series of risks that well exceed a hundred and practically come up to 200 and in each case, there is a game plan for dealing with them over quite a period of time ahead. Well, what it does suggest is that the Institute should continue with its work in this area. So we will produce a report now to coincide with the appearance of a new economy with the appearance of a new British Prime Minister that is to say sometime in October. And we will then hold a major conference on that report and we will continue our work obviously over the next two to three years. So there I think is an overview of what it is we see this morning. It's a position that none of us would have wanted to be in while we are here. So we have to deal with it. And I thank you for coming.