 Gormeil mellwg yw'r Brynddon, a gynlluniaeth yn ddweud mae'n llyfr yn bach o'r llwerd argynfodol yma. Rydyn ni'n hynny i gyd yn ddweud yng Nghymru neu ymddorol yn sicr gynnul ni'n ddweud arall yn ddigonol. I'm going to cover some things that I know you understand very well, but for context I will cover them in the body of what I want to say overall. I suspect I'm not the only person in the room who had acquainted themselves pretty well with what could happen, but still found at some point in the small hours of this morning that it actually was utterly shocking and utterly unbelievable that it had just happened. No matter how prepared anybody might be, and imagine the case if you hadn't really been prepared at all. So, I think the fact that we're talking about it and the work that we might take away from this is extraordinarily important, and people will look to us for direction to say, what do I do, how does this affect me, how do I plan, how do I sustain jobs in the economy, and who can help me with that. So, let me talk about some things that might assist that reflection. If you travel to London regularly, as I do, and if you go into central London, anywhere near Oxford Street or Tottenham Court Road Tube station, you know that they're basically digging very big holes in the middle of London. They've always been doing it, but the ones that they're digging at the minute include the ones to house the new Crossrail Express Tube. It's a fantastic project of the wonderful engineering projects that the British are so famous for. You may be aware of that. You may have been disrupted on your journey by it. What you might not know is that there are 32,000 concrete panels inside the lining of that tube extension, and what you probably don't know at all is that every one of the 32,000 concrete panels is made in Ireland. And if you think about that and you have an idea of what they look like, they're big, bulky, high-tech, dense, heavy, expensive artifacts that somebody makes them, puts them on a truck, drives them across to Arklow, puts them on a boat, sails it down the Irish Sea around the channel up the Thames and into the tube environment in London. It's unbelievable what you think about it, and yet it's done. It's done by a marvellous Irish company called Shea Marta, and they won that contract against the best in the world, not just in Britain, but China and everybody else. That's the kind of stuff that quietly represents the relationship in trade between Ireland and Britain these days, and it's not just big, heavy goods. There are loads more of those stories. Some of you might know a young lady called Roshin who recently launched a product called Hero by Roshin. It's a health food product. It's a fantastic example of Irish innovation, and also the work that Enterprise Ireland do to connect innovators with the infrastructure to bring the product to market, because she was introduced to a traditional food manufacturer in Drawda who has made this wonderfully innovative product and brought it to market, and it's doing really, really well. So far, so good, except she says, that's fine. In Ireland, I know how many people I can feed if I get a certain amount of market share. She needs a much bigger market for that product, and she's entitled to a much bigger market. Up until last night she was entitled to believe that she would have access, free, unencumbered, uninhibited, no tariffs, no barriers, no difference in trading standards, for instance, no difference in health standards between here and the UK. Up until last night she could serve a 5 million market in Ireland and a 60 million market in the UK. Now she's not so sure, and what she says is don't let them mess up my chances just when I'm getting off the ground here. That's the stuff that is now an issue when we talk about the trade underlay to a political issue and even a wider issue, a sociological issue that's going on inside Britain today. There's a reason also why the Dublin-London air route is the second busiest in the world. Some of you will know the statistic. It's second only to Hong Kong Taipei, and that's a lot. The reason why is because actually Dublin and London, if we just take those locales effectively today in many parts of trade, operate as one cluster. They operate as a single commune of people. They certainly do in tech, they do in financial services, they do in life sciences research and other things including many of our FDI, our Foreign Direct Investor, wins in this country. Part of the win is our proximity to the UK. They prefer here, that's nice, but they also like that they're very close physically to the resources and the diversity of what London and its conservation adds to their faculty here. And they commute back and forward every day on that air route, making it the second busiest in the world. The organisation that I look after, the British House Chamber of Commerce, was formed to draw attention to that, to those little minor economic miracles that people had forgotten we were so useful at and that we were at risk of not taking seriously and not continuing to support and invest in them. And signs on it, you know, we have managed to allow something to happen without really, really, really absorbing the massive consequences for the trade that that supports. The stats, just to remind, 1.2 billion euros a week of trade and goods and services between these two islands, that supports directly 400,000 jobs, 200,000 on each island by the way and many more in the supply chain and the surrounding communities. Because this isn't about trade and sales for trade and sales sake. This is about saying that jobs are made by factories and premises and business managers who hire people in pursuit of a business idea that they believe in, take a personal risk and decide to hire another person. And they do that in an environment where they have enough risk anyway that they really want to know that they have reasonable stability around them and that the investment that they make is down to their own endeavours and not to somebody of political change and uncertainty and sociological change and uncertainty around them that significantly impacts the returns in which case they're going to invest less. Let me give you an example of that. People are today, right this minute, thinking about timelines. So when will this happen? How long will it take? How does it work? And you've got the two years and you've got the maybe ten years and you've got the interregnum before article 50 is triggered. And we know these phrases now in current conversation. Two immediate things happen. We already know today about the foreign exchange matter. So £1 is plummeted and all of that sort of environment around that. It's very simple. It's the same as saying if you're supplying a UK customer today, our biggest trading partner for goods or services. If you're supplying them with food or if you're supplying them with a service like tourism, you've just asked them to pay a 10% or maybe more price increase. With no other basis for that. In most services you need to be doing something a little bit better than just passing on a price increase. In most goods you're competing in a very open market. So all of a sudden we've got a massive price increase on Britain's relationship with Ireland. And that passes right down the food chain and I mean that all the way. And it's not just about the price increase diminishing your chances of a further sale. If you think about food in particular it's so extraordinarily important to our endeavours here. When you pass on that price increase to Tesco or somebody else, Sainsbury in the UK, they don't just say we're not prepared to pay the price or that's not going to work first. They say well actually we might just take you off the shelf and get somebody else. And we know the amount of times we've rightly celebrated when Ireland has won shelf space in China for infant formula or in Canada or in the US for certain food categories as well. Shelf space is even more liquid gold in some of these sectors than the actual pricing of the product itself. Because what Britain will do it has to feed its population with acceptable cheap food. It has high grade cheap food or good value food from Ireland. If we come off those shelves they'll turn to somebody else. They'll go to Brazil or Venezuela or somebody else. And it's not just the last sale it's maybe half a generation before we might get back on some of those shelves. So this is extraordinarily important. If you take the food sector in the UK, Irish food companies in the UK, Irish owned food companies employ more people in the UK today than say Nissan, the motor manufacturer. Companies like Greencore and Glanbia and Kerry Foods and ABP employ well over 30,000 to 40,000 people, probably over 50,000 now in the UK. Greencore alone has 42 physical outlets in terms of factories and logistics depots and employees between 10,000 and 14,000 people with seasonal variations. And it makes a sandwich that is sold at 99p in Marks and Spencer's or Sainsbury's. And it does that because that's what the British consumer wants. And that's fair enough they're entitled to that. The way it does that is it takes food from lots of different places, some of it from Ireland, a lot of it from within the UK. It blends it with other ingredients that it sources typically in these islands. It uses staff from exactly 50% local and 50% not Syrian immigrants or other non-EU immigrants. It uses 50% EU eligible to work in EU workers. And they live in those communities and they spend and they bring up their children and everybody else. At that blended cost and blended skills base, Greencore get to make sandwiches that do very, very well for all the stakeholders including the family or the office worker that gets to eat them at lunchtime. If you change the business model and you say you can't hire those people or your costs of importing raw materials from Ireland are going to be higher or packaging or other issues like that, you change the production cycle and you change the end price. Something's got to give either you sell less or you're replaced by somebody else in the extreme case or something's got to give in terms of the price for the consumer at the other end. So there's no costless outcome to these changes that might impact now everything from labour law and flexibility of operations and cost bases and sales value and foreign exchange rates. They all add up to the byproducts of any change in what's happening today and that's where we're at. What business does is it doesn't have a politics at all actually. It just is this inanimate idea of business. It's pragmatic. It responds rationally as it has to do to say if something changes in the equation that makes the business viable, something else has to be changed to correspond to that. So less business typically as a result of less returns. That leads to less job sustainability today and less opportunity for people in the future. And it's not just in the UK, it's here. And even for people here, if you're in Navin as a hairdresser and you say that doesn't bother me, I don't exactly export any hairdressing out of Navin. No, but you work for somebody who does and the good foreign direct investors or the good native exporters out of Navin into the UK will end up potentially doing less business. And that ultimately obviously affects the native businesses of our communities locally as well. The biggest problem right now in terms of the environment from today isn't the actual fact of any of the known things that could happen. It's the fact that so many things aren't known. It's completely uncertain. And the biggest issue in the leave campaign was which leave. We knew exactly what Remain was, what's it all. In fact, we knew it was going to be slightly enhanced by the settlement deal announced earlier in the year. But we knew nothing about what leave was other than that there were several different versions of them. Probably at least a half a dozen across the major factions, if you like, and the representatives. And so the problem now isn't really about saying what have we just done. That's bad enough itself. But what on earth are we about to get? Because nobody has described what that will be. And apart from the issues associated with the transition under Prime Minister Cameron's resignation and the handover, the question is who is going to broker the consensus among the leave propositions, and in this case the leave propositions as the impact on business. So that just adds a huge extra dimension with all sorts of threats to the regulatory timeline. It looks very difficult that a two-year cycle could reconcile those deeply differential models that are floating around out there. Among them people say actually we want to get out of the single market altogether on one wing. In fact there was an even more extreme one that said actually what Britain should do is get out of manufacturing altogether. Which is, well I haven't been asked to debate that point in the UK but I look forward to the opportunity. The idea that Britain would so transform and so give away its natural competence in these ways hasn't been confronted at all. But even at the close to today level, the Norway model, I won't bore you, you know enough about this. Norway, Switzerland, Canada all involve not free trade but conditional trade. They are the conditions upon which trade is allowed. They are in Norway's case conditions that say yes but you comply with all the laws including all the future laws that you won't have any say in enabling. You will pay in, Norway pays almost as much per capita into the EU as the UK does. And you will still have duties and tariffs on certain goods. So Norway pays a tariff of 12% on its exports of smoked salmon into the EU. And in return retaliates by charging a 300% levy on imports of French cheese into Norway. And even as I was travelling over in the car at lunchtime people still on the radio saying, we'll do a deal, we've always dealt, we don't need any tariffs so we don't need any rules. So we need to get real very fast on this and I'll come to the point in terms of what we might be able to do about that. We have to work now with the two governments to say this is too big a job for any one agency on its own to do. This is so unprecedented in its magnitude and its ramifications. This is going to need collaboration of the greatest order over the coming days, weeks, months and I'm afraid years as well. Because it's so unprecedented, it's utterly uncharted. If you didn't have the EU, you would definitely want to make one. Because you do want, and I would argue, you have to have a combine facility for challenging the big combine issues. Climate, safety, security, travel, all of these things. But you also actually need it for trade. Because if you take, let me give you a last example in the manufacturing context. People talk about British industry. Bentley, probably one of the most iconic British industry brands, launched its new car. It costs a quarter of a million pounds, I'm sure. It's a very elaborate vehicle. It actually is the first parts of it are made in Bratislava, which I don't think they put a badge on on the side to say made in Bratislava. They have the business model that is now prevalent in so many industries that said we are multinational, multi-territorial, multi-trading bloc, actually. And we have arrangements by which a vehicle starts in one place, gets shipped to somewhere else to be in the next stage, and gets finally assembled somewhere else. And indeed, in some cases, the parts move back and forth. I was in Nissan in Sunderland on Tuesday to talk about some of these things. 40% of the average car made in Sunderland, the first place to leave last night, if you remember, 40% of its vehicles are manufactured in Europe, typically in France, shipped in part built and finished off in the UK. And Nissan in Sunderland makes five times more cars than it sells in the UK itself. So the idea that it could somehow, and Nissan does not claim this, that it somehow could go it alone in the UK is completely bonkers, I'm afraid. That's a technical term. Just lastly from me on this, the idea of where is it going? We have to get a deal. We have to, as Irish people now and Irish interests and Irish citizens, we have to help our government and public officials of whom we have some brilliant people to get to the table and engineer that we come out of this process with a deal between the UK and Ireland. No matter how you might feel about what's just been done, the idea that we wouldn't have the ability to trade with such a large and such a common trading partner as ourselves is unbelievable. So we have to get that to preserve as much of the rights of freedoms that we have today, including the common travel area. And we also obviously have a massive vested interest in the nature of the deal that the UK crafts with the EU. And I personally as a citizen have high regard for Ireland's track record and credentials to be able to sit in and be an agent of consensus building among what are otherwise pretty warlike factions out there. Lastly on FDI, yes we will attract some FDI. It's already happening but it's no trump card anymore. It's no ace up our sleeves because the reality is Britain will defend itself on loss of FDI. If it is truly left alone and isolated, the easiest thing it can do is give free accommodation to FDIs to come into the UK. So there's no magic wand in that, albeit that there are some structural reasons why people will come along. But I'll give you one other example. So far an exchange has been an immediate effect. One area where Ireland might benefit, just to close out on a positive note, I took a leading life sciences company to the House of Commons for a briefing with one of its committees in February. And the gentleman who runs that company based here, but based in every country in Europe said, we spend 3.5 billion euros a year on research. It's a pharmaceutical company, that's what they do. It takes 10 years to find out which of those euro spends produced any green shoots. We have enough risk in that model without also being in a climate where we might not even know can we harvest the benefits of it without paying excessive taxes or other punitive rates. He said, we won't wait for the two years. We won't wait for the change of Prime Minister. We won't wait until the week after the count. We will move the day after the count, which is today, to stop spending on research in the UK. What does that mean? It means universities and it means suppliers to universities and innovators and engineers and many other things. Whose blood supply will be constrained instantly, not in two years' time, because they're not going to wait around for the outcome of some deal. They'll say, we're taking that money to somewhere else. They already spend it in every country in Europe. They'll stop spending it in the UK. There will be some positive opportunities on the back of that. I'm going to meet Margeff. I'll leave it at that. I'm glad to participate in the Q&A.