 Okay, we're actually ready about now. So this is Jasper Lawlor, market analyst here at CMC Markets for our weekly charting analysis webinar. We're going to get through these risk warnings on the screen and then we'll get things off. So one of the most notable things in markets at the moment is that you may have seen we saw an absolute plummet in the gold price overnight, slightly off the lows, but still down 1.6% as we priced it, was down as much as 4% from Friday's close. And so there we have it, some pretty extreme price action. So different theories going around as to what exactly triggered it, but I feel like the most obvious technical explanation is that we did on Friday, teeter down and actually make just about a lower low than the November low. And so as of the open in China on Monday, we basically had a bunch of sell orders coming in in quite thick and heavy fashion. And as you can imagine, quite a few people will be long gold and where would they have their stop loss? Well, looking at this long-term giant gold, this is going back. These are the lows from 2010. This took us to the lowest since Feb 2010, this latest move. And you can see the price has pretty much been well contained within this sort of here was the 1180 lows that we managed to dip down through this year, at the end of last year and this year. And then this 1140 level was really the other kind of key support for the duration of this year. And so once we dropped below, that's the November low, zoomed out. And there was obviously some selling pressure coming into the market anyway and then a bunch of walkers triggered those stops beneath the market. So anyone who was long would have wanted to sell beneath that level. And anyone who was selling short hoping to capture that downward momentum on a break also had sell orders down there. So that's what generated that kind of momentum and in Asia the liquidity is a bit thin anyway. So that's why we saw such a massive move, I believe, technically. Fundamentally, why are we, well, it's the gold market, it's the same real dynamics that we've been dealing with for a while. I think a couple of the major things that have changed is there really has been a shift to a belief that the Fed will be hiking rates possibly in September. Market belief is likely this year. And so based on that latest inflation data on Friday from the US where we saw core prices up by 1.8% in the year. Gold with some data that said that China, basically the government there released some statistics that are typically released on their gold reserves. They were massive and China is definitely the largest consumer of gold. But they weren't actually quite as big as some had thought. And so that's sort of resulting dollar strength because obviously gold is priced in dollars as well as that inherent sort of demand weakness. A couple of the kind of major triggers for why gold fell off the cliff like that. And now we've seen quite a big bounce off the lows. It's difficult in these scenarios to assess quite whether this is just going to be an entirely false break and move higher. I would suggest, given the extent of this, that that's probably unlikely. We certainly could, it's not outside the realms of possibility to get a run back to 1200, but my feeling is that anyone who was long the market now is going to be pretty heavily shaken from this latest move. And a bit fearful about getting long and again, I think the short sellers may win out. And there's an immediate support down here based on this long-term chart. Down here from the highs here in 2008 as well as that January 2010 low I mentioned which basically comes in about the 1045 mark. But obviously $1,000 an ounce is a lot of, it should be fairly stiff support. That's something that or catch a lot of news headlines when the price, if the price were to drop down to there. So that's just a bit on gold, but definitely fits in even if you're not trading gold. You know, the story of dollar strength is something that permeates through the other markets as well. It's been a trend that we've been dealing particularly with in the last month or so, really, and there was a slight sort of pause during the final hours. It's Greek debacle, but it seems to have sort of kicked in again now. So we can, while we're looking at gold, let's just have a quick look at silver as well. Silver didn't manage to take out what was actually quite an extreme reversal on the 1st of December, not long after gold put in its loan. And we've seen a break past this recent lay from the 7th of July, but if the day were to close like this, that would be more aggressive out there. That would be a potential buying signal because it was a false break below and then a strong reversal on the day potentially triggered a move back up. It's countertrend, so the difficulty with buying a situation like this is quite where does that end? You take it right to the high to meet Abbey Risky because it is a downtrend. So strictly speaking, in a downtrend, you see lower peaks. So where would that lower peak be? Perhaps just captured by this down the trend line that we spiked above there. Perhaps based on these closing levels, closing and opening levels, it's difficult to, obviously, you could just choose a price action-based exit, but then you could lose a bit of action when you're waiting for that reversal. So tricky to pinpoint your exit there, but a possible reversal higher in silver. But again, given what we've seen in gold, do you really want to be along this mark even for the small length of time? It's a risky proposition. I will just keep the theme of commodities going. So seeing the question there about Pound Yen, so yep, I can definitely cover that mark. I'll get into, maybe I'll drop into currencies following commodities. So I just did an update on the Brent chart in the chart forum today. So I stripped out a couple of moving averages here because I think we've got a fairly obvious downtrend here, also evident in the RSI. We've got a bit of a bounce off the oversold level at 30, taking us back up to these peaks here from March. And I think there is scope for maybe a recovery back up to the bottom of this range in around 61. But the trend to me is down below the 200-day moving average. We're making a series of lower highs and as of this move from the start of July, lower lows. So the assumption would be that either this is the top of the recovery, or we're getting like an ABC, ABC up to perhaps somewhere in this vicinity before another leg level. But we do have, to me, the more prominent support. You could just be using these closes, but to me these lows are kind of the levels that would really need to be substantially tested to complete reverse or could be justified. That thesis can be reversed, one of which could be, one of the reasons could be, is this RSA trend line. Sometimes you get these RSI trend lines all break before the price does, so it can give you an early signal as to reverse loan price. Because some of you may have, if you're trading Brent, may have a trend line connecting these highs. To me, that's no longer really valid because it was valid during this period as the price slanted here, but as it fell off here, it's no longer valid. The momentum has shifted more kind of down this way, and there's not really a good trend line that kind of covers that. So even if price did bounce up to that line, it does certainly add a bit of weight and alongside these lows, it would be an extra bit of resistance. But to me, that would be a higher high and also this lower momentum moving in reverse so it wouldn't be quite as good as if we just had a little drop in them back where it's more sort of in this downward channel. That's just a little bit on my understanding of trend lines and how to use them. To me, at this point, when it bounces back, it might just be a bit too late for this trend line. That's why that's why I've got it out. Just while we're talking about Brent, there are obviously the ongoing kind of dynamics in all markets that are a bit sort of choppy at the moment. The reason we've had a bit of a recovery is that price has dropped as U.S. production started to pick up and as U.S. oil rigs started to increase in numbers, but we've seen a slight reversal of that recently where actually U.S. inventories had declined again. So I think stepping away from the weekly data on oil, I think the understanding that you've got to have here is that even though prices have dropped quite substantially, U.S. production has stabilized. It's not massively increasing but it's not really decreasing that much in the past few months and that's putting a bit of a hole in the sort of OPEC, Saudi Arabia plan of driving U.S. producers out of the market. They just haven't quite succeeded in doing that yet. So let's jump straight to Pound Yen. I've not got it in my watch list. I've got Euro Yen there, but let's have a little search or any for that. I follow Euro Yen a bit more actively and I think the Pound Yen is a good one from the perspective of obviously Pound Dollar is a bit sort of non-representative of what's generally happening with the British Pound. Actually the British Pound has been gaining against a basket of currencies and that's been particularly so as of last week when we heard some comments from the Bank of England Chairman Carney that he sees a need for normalising policy around the turn of the year. He's starting to say strange phraseology but basically saying that he thinks there should be an interest rate hike. I would assume that either means December of this year or January of next year. So not massively a change there but some in the market works expecting a Q2 rate hike from the Bank of England. So that's been pulled in a little bit and there's been good broad cable strength because really still the U.K. alongside the U.S. are really the only two nations that look, aside from a few emerging market economies, look like in any position to raise interest rates. We saw Canada cut interest rates last week and we saw Europe reiterate the fact they're going to be doing quantitative easing for over a year from now. So just the Pound and the Dollar standing head and feet above the rest in terms of monetary policy. Purely trend based there, you can see based on this weekly chart that we're in a pretty decent solid uptrend. We made a high high and then coincidentally there's 21 week moving average corresponding with this previous peak from the 22nd of Feb. A good confluence of support here and actually with the benefit of hindsight not such a surprise to see that hammer candlestick. So if you're really early in the game, you're able to pinpoint that confluence and buy in at the bottom of the reversal candlestick. Maybe you've waited for the momentum of the week to carry you high in which case you perhaps bought on a break at that last week's candle to take you up higher last week and now we're just pushing into the highs and so obviously the probabilities are sort of slightly skewed out of your favor for buying at the moment. So momentum's in your favor, you're starting to buy into resistance which is generally not a great idea. So your tactics here sort of depend on where you are. If you're neutral on the market maybe now's not quite the time to be buying but if you're already in the market then quite feasibly time to add to it. On the daily chart we've got this gap and that's causing a bit of a fault here and the pound yen is not unrelated to pound dollar, there's strong correlations there but when you're trading pound yen you have to kind of watch which is it correlating more with dollar yen or pound dollar. So that's the kind of key here and the pound dollar as we'll look at the second item I can show you now is seemingly a bit of a turning point at 157. So we're sort of rolling over here in pound dollar, quite well off the highs, general market context not quite the same but in the short term momentum cable is rolling over. My thing is it might find some support at 155 but then if we flip over to dollar yen we're also potentially running into a place where it might roll over. So some resistance suggested by both of those but again both of those this sort of trend is higher so it's a matter of are we calling a turning point here. One of the things that I'll be looking out for in this dolly yen chart incidentally is that this is not quite an inside day because it did make a higher high on Friday but it's a Harami pattern. So we're currently breaking out of that Harami pattern to the top side. So a close above here would be a bullish signal according to that pattern but if we get a close back into the bodies of these previous general sticks or even a lower close that would be quite a this upward reversal signal would have been reversed to a downward signal bullish to bearish and that would actually be quite a strong signal that we've seen a fake breakout of this pattern and that we could be headed lower back down to the region of sort of where this low was around 123. So were that to take place in dolly yen I feel like pound yen may not fare too well as well. So I hope that helps. Now we did look at pound dollar and dolly yen pretty briefly there. Let's have a flip over to the Euro. Now obviously at a pretty interesting spot right here because we're at the lowest levels since the 27th of May with that low there. Broadly speaking we're still in this kind of choppy range environment not really an obvious trend taking place here but you could sort of say that there's not really a decent trend line here but if you do connect these two lows and use that previous low we'll potentially come into some quite serious support in this area but again that's not really a confirmed trend line and if you were to use this instead there's more arguably a reversal to a sort of lower trend. My assumption at the moment is that we're still within range trading environment even though this is a bit of downward momentum here that's fine on the short term but you probably don't want to be looking at a daily chart for that. That's more like an hourly chart trend to be trading. I would argue that this bit of support on the daily chart would suggest now is not a good time for short term momentum selling because there's scope for a bounce but that bounce might not get much further than these couple of lows here before we roll over and perhaps come down and test this 1.660. Again just referencing RSI we did have a couple of levels of support here which have broken so even though price has not quite broken its support RSI has so that could be an indication that price is about to follow suit. Now maybe since we just covered some of the major currencies it's good to just pull up the economic calendar here and let's see what we've got on for this week. There wasn't that it is not too much today. This is not the main US retail sales data we tend to look at. That was released last week, that was dreadful. So that's a kind of mixed picture we face with US economic data and the scope for a rate hike. You've got to follow the trend at the moment the dollar's strong so go with that but just thinking about it a bit more in depth fundamentally retail sales were useless last week. Saw a decline when an increase was expected but inflation like I said was mildly kind of seems to be heading in the direction of the defence target so a few and obviously jobs data has been fairly consistently above 200,000 jobs created which is seemingly quite a strong jobs market so putting that all together the market bias is hawkish at the moment on the dollar. Like I said this is not the main data tomorrow. For those trading the Aussie, some inflation data coming out. We've got the Bank of England minutes. That's going to be a big deal for Cable and we'll determine whether these comments from Carney are going to be completely in conflict with what was discussed at the meeting or whether in fact we might even hear that there were a couple of dissenters and maybe those couple of dissenters that voted for a rate hike several months ago before all prices meant a massive amount of deflation and then pulled their dissent back. They may have decided to dissent again and that would be again quite a hawkish signal for Cable and could see the pound extend its gains. So that would be a big event on Wednesday. There's some home price data from the US. Obviously for those trading oil we've got the EIA report on Wednesday. We've got the interest rate decision from the New Zealand dollar. That's been really weak, the Kiwi dollar, just because of the surprise rate cut last time and there's a good chance that they're going to cut again at this meeting. Something I'm actually saying by as much as half a percent should be quite extreme. UK retail sales on Thursday. Again I think that's going to be one of those. Retail sales have been strong for a while now and it wouldn't be that surprising if they're strong again. So the risk compare is more to the downside, particularly depending on what comes out of the minutes. If the minutes are a bit more dovish than expected and then retail sales miss, I think we could see a bit of a downturn in sentiment towards the pound. And then really just going into Friday, it's going to be the PMI data, the flash PMI data that's probably the most important to watch because it gives you your first indication over the month and that's for most of Europe, most of Europe and Germany, France, also China early in the day and that Europe wide number as well as the US. So not the most data heavyweight but a couple of key events there. I'm going to switch over to the indices to round this thing off. Did a few updates today as mentioned here in the insights here. Let's get to the UK to start with. So just a sort of interesting level possibly about to crop up here in this 6860 because we do have these previous two peaks. I don't typically like to try and sell on the third test particularly when we're above the 200-day moving average even though it doesn't mean that much when we're in a sort of trading range. But given how far we've come, I think momentum has to be sort of rolling over fairly soon and that's a potential area of interest for sure. I think if we hit that 6860, I don't see us rolling back down towards 6400 but there could be a reasonable correction perhaps down to the peak here at 6650 maybe just back down to the 200-day. That hasn't worked particularly well. It had sort of a few occasions where it's proved of some sort of significance. Clearly a lot of people have been on that screen. Have a look over at Germany. Since Greece has been fixed, this index has been rallying and so we've had a really pretty strong run since there were those first indications that Greece were going to sign on the dotted line despite the referendum. We're now making higher highs. It's still a bit of a kind of choppy range environment so I think we are still at risk of a rolling over before we get up to this 11-9-20 type of tendency because you see how tight that action was there. We're kind of approaching into that range now. There and then here. That was quite a tight range and here you can see that false break higher and then the roll over. There's an example of how the day can eventually close if you get that really extreme bearish example of that inside day break. So that ended up being a sort of bearish and golfing pattern on the day and obviously prices rolled over from there. So something like that would be an obvious sell signal. We've had the breakout here look similar to that. What was that? Cable pattern. We're looking at here. So inside day move higher. We'll have to see how far that can carry us. If we get a close above it's actually quite bullish and could maybe take us that high and beyond. Another thing that I think probably won't be too influential but I've left it on the chart is this rising trend line that got broken and then tested a couple of times as we've been consolidating here. Again worth noticing the RSI broken above the resistance here. So that's a bullish sign but obviously corresponds with the breaking of this channel and this peak as well. Coming into the final few minutes here certainly feel free to throw over some last minute questions. We're going to move to the US. We've seen some absolute barnstormer earnings from the US notably Netflix and Google in the past few days both up over 14% in just one day. Not the kind of stuff you see typically. Definitely making a few people sit up and think where their portfolios are or just where is the market they're trading because that's certainly the kind of move that can certainly happen in the other direction but encouraging a lot of people to pile into the tech stocks that have been doing so well in US markets over the past couple of years. That's why there's renewed sense of optimism obviously helped with the global backdrop of China and Greece looking a bit more promising but that's why we're pushing towards the record highs in the S&P. I still consider this a range to me and there's some strong momentum going into it and that strong momentum heading into the range is generally better for a failure than if we just gradually made our way up there because if it's gradual, this is counter-intuitive. A lot of people get scared of selling into a large upward move because they figure it's going to break whereas actually these breaks tend to happen when the market gradually eases its way up. Gradual safe moves that just keep on going. If it's a sudden move up there, that's when we can catch fright and drop down and so this has been this sharp momentum which has been waning a bit since last Monday obviously is actually quite decent for the chance of this just rolling over in the top of the range. Maybe not perfectly at the high, might dip a bit higher to 240, up to 250 I tend to think the scope for the market just rolling over again. We can use something like that to kind of judge generally where we are in terms of momentum. Did just mention the tech stocks here and that's kind of why the NASDAQ is looking pretty promising. Also got a similar line there, worth noting. So perhaps reasonably the 4700 might cap the gains there as well but certainly enough trend. So more a scenario of being aware of if you're already along the market then maybe actively shorting it because generally going short the equity markets over the past couple of years there's not been a wise move for any longer period of time at least. So I believe that's it. The Dow looks very much like the S&P. I mentioned the chart forum here we've got a reversal signal in towards the top of the range but I've judged on this last couple of days we probably need at least a false break above this line before being able to roll back into the range again. I hope that was helpful. Good luck with trading. Good to trade with this week and I will catch you at the same time next week. Thanks all. Just belong signing out.