 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network. I know this is the case pretty much every year But a fantastic sports weekend once again, I know that with the with the Masters It seems like every year's gonna be a good year to watch some sports But I feel like this year especially it's because I expecting rain and expecting it to be kind of bad It wound up being a lot of fun a good duel between John Rom Brooks Kepka Phil Mickelson making a run on Sunday as well and John Ron coming out victorious And of course a good sports weekend always enhanced or sometimes enhanced with some winning bets Brandon Gadoula talking about John Rom here on the show last week. That certainly helped did well with some NASCAR stuff too So it's a good weekend in general for sports, but it was nice to have some winning bets on top But we're gonna go recap last week later on today But also talk about some major league baseball bets for a Monday to try to get your week off to a good start And try to duplicate how things went last week. Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to take a look at Monday's slate of MLB Breaking down awesome strikeout props and home run props like for today to let you know where I've seen value And as mentioned will recap last week here on the show as well to go through an accountability section We had here to get going to the show over all we'll talk about that here And if second but first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow We're gonna talk about the NBA playing tournament breakdown that talk about where we can find some value there We got NFL draft coverage coming up We still have of course the NHL playoffs the NBA playoffs all that stuff will be covered here on the show So to get all these shows as they go live to make sure you're getting the best odds Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts And if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating grand slams No hitters and double plays are back and there is no better place to get in on the MLB action than at Fandall America's number one sportsbook That's because right now new customers can step up to the plate with a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 sign up place your first bet and get up to $1,000 back in bonus bets if you don't win So don't miss your chance to get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 when you join Fandall today Fandall official partner of major league baseball must be 21 plus and president select states first online A real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days Michigan's applies see full terms at fandall.com slash sportsbook Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or is the fandall.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step protects next step to five three three four two in Connecticut 1-887-89 7777 Ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800 5 2 2 4700 in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open Y And in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler dot net now Let's dig into MLB first day and typically will do here on The stream is we'll talk about money lines strike out props and home runs I would love to talk about money lines for today. The problem is when I look at the The markets for today at fandall sports, but I am seeing Literally not a single one that I want to bet There is one game where I am showing enough value it crosses the value threshold for me for betting it based on my Process and based on my model and that game is for the Rangers in the Royals the Rangers money line in that game minus 172, but I Think my model might be too high at Andrew Heaney He really struggled in his first start seems like maybe not the picture He was last year at least based on that it can be a small sample Maybe there's a bounce back here for sure maybe they even started a discount Etc. Etc. But if he is dropping off, it's going to take my numbers more than one start to catch up So I do show value there. I'm not taking it myself. I'm not recommending it But I think that that's a key thing with having a model have being a numbers-based thing is Watching these games and identifying is there a reason to be concerned? And I you know watching Heaney last week I had I don't know if I had a strikeout proper the Rangers money line, but Didn't look great. So we know he has the hard contact concerns, too So I'm showing value there. I'm not taking it personally and I'm gonna pass So I'd recommend you do the same there Let's do something see more reason to be high and Heaney that I do not see there are some strikeout props I like though and My favorite one is an under on three and a half and typically you want to bet towards the mean So taking an under on a low number can feel kind of weird But I do want to take an under here and that under is on Patrick Corbin facing off with the Los Angeles Angels The strikeout prop for Corbin is plus 118 on under three and a half And I do want that under on Corbin here this number has been inching up a bit So it does seem like there are some interest in the over on Corbin So if you open things up and see that it's you know, it's lengthened a bit more That's the way the market has moved If it's still 118 I probably take it there because it seems like the market may have leveled off at that point But with Corbin looking at the first two starts It does seem like it might be even a little tiny bit more concerning than it was for him last year I've got Corbin projected for a 3.15 strikeouts very low number It's tough to get down there, especially because I do expect him to have a pretty full pitch count He's leaning heavily on his slider this year But even in the two starts his strikeout rate is 13% now his swing strike rate is better So I don't expect his strikeout rate to stay low Down at 13% the strikeout rate should increase as things go along but Both of those starts came at home, which is a plus and now He goes on the road to face the Los Angeles Angels now the angels are a team that will with they definitely will do that as an offense But they also have a 128 WRC plus against lefties on their current active roster since the start of last year and a 208 ISO they are Now among the best lefty hitting teams in baseball Maybe they might be the best honestly, and I know that's not the perception of the angels, but when you add Adam hunter Renfro add in Brandon Drury guys who can take lefties deep. That's what's gonna happen so We do get a situation where the strikeout rate is not low for the angels is 21% that's that's below average But it's not like low-low They do they will strike out But I think that there's enough power bats in this lineup where we could see Corbin get chased pretty quickly So that's a path to an under he could just you know somewhere the first two games Not hit the over he went six innings in the second start and didn't get the over there I think there are a couple paths to an under here So plus 118 and that's pretty good value So again 3.15 projected strikeouts me for Corbin for tonight under three and a half is plus 118 I think that's a pretty good bet. So Patrick Corbin under three and a half at plus 118 The first bet for me for today The second bet is an over and it's also kind of scary that one The Corbin one is scary because it's an under on a low number The second one is scary is because it's an over at Coorsfield But I do think that there is decent value here that over is four and a half at plus 102 for Stephen matt's matt's is at Coorsfield taking on the Colorado Rockies for today and The reasons why Coors is scary are twofold. It's not just because A guy can get chased early Get knocked around and have to leave the game because he lets a ball out of run That's one route for sure and that is a legitimate scare for Coorsfield especially with the total at 11 and a half for today. That's one route but It's also it's a park where the elevation changes the way pitches move And that can throw pitchers for a loop They may not be used to that kind of movement on their pitches and it may lead to Control issues could lead to just decreased width rates and stuff like that. So you do see Guys get their strike every reduce when they go to Coorsfield versus what they do elsewhere for a lot of times at least And matt's has not pitched to Coorsfield since 2019 so He's not used to this environment and mess with the repertoire and he could let up a lot of runs A lot of passes on it there but I also think matt's is just good He had seven strikeouts in his first start this year with a 13.8% swinging striker And that came against a very good atlanta braze offense an offense that can hurt lefties in a pretty big way And they did get to matt's eventually He let up a good number runs in that game But the strikeouts were there and I don't think that should be a surprise because last year before his injury matt's was Popping seven or so strikeouts per game on a pretty regular basis So it's not a shock to see matt's getting the strikeouts in the situation He is fully stretched out matt's went 94 pitches in that first start against the braves So there is definite risk here talking about paths to an under for corbin There are paths to an under for matt's as well, but I think his baseline is better than this number entails I think that the risk the downsides the paths are accounted for in this number So I do want to take the over here the over on matt's at four and a half is plus one or two at fangirl sportsbook again I think that's a good number So steven matt's over four and a half plus one or two patrick corbin under three and a half plus 118 The two strikeout parops where I'm showing value for today. I think those are the two I want to settle on personally There are some home run prompts that I like as well one of this actually in this games Let's take here and talk about that one first now I'm going to talk about this home on prop based on the eye of the fangirl I will say you can get a much better number elsewhere. So It's always a good word of caution. Make sure you shop around The guy I like is brendan donovan. He is plus six thirty a fangirl sportsbook You can get him as long as plus nine fifty elsewhere I would take that I would recommend that that is a very good number Uh donovan is a guy who coming into this year There were some rumblings that he may have had a a swing change and he said no, it's not a swing change I'm trying to be more efficient with my swings which sounds like a swing change, but um, either way In the spring we saw him hit for a decent amount of power And it's okay to be skeptical of that because spring training numbers can be very fluky but if you look at the stickiest numbers from spring it's strikeouts and isolated slugging and I do put weight in those things for spring training numbers to see If there have been changes if because you know, I want to get that the reason they stabilize more quickly is because They are numbers are stabilized quickly strikeout rate stabilizes around Like 50 to 60 plate appearances isolated slugging is higher around 80 or so I believe but you know It's not going to stabilize across spring But you can get indications directionally of who may have improved and donovan was one of those guys So good power in the spring He has two of them run so far which is not a big number, but he has four barrels I think he had 13 all of last year His barrel rate this year is 16.7 percent last year is 3.4 percent So It does seem like there has been a tangible shift there So with donovan you're getting guys probably going to hit pretty high in the order at coors field With a swing change that has led to some power that the books may not be accounting for just yet You can get him as long as plus 950 if you're willing to look for the best price on it He's facing everyone marquez. I think marquez is a pretty good pitcher personally But he's also not the ace you need to be to Shut down guys at coors field We also do see marquez let up more fly balls to lefties and donovan is that so I think that looking at coors field I wasn't expecting to see a lot of value here for today because I respect maths and I respect marquez But opening up the module seeing donovan at plus 630 a fandal and then looking around and finding him at plus 950 elsewhere That changed my mind real fast So I do think donovan uh at the best number you can get is going to be a good home run call for today Based on the swing change based on marquez and based on those factors all combining to make him a good value at plus 630 or longer Other home run prop I've got for today is going back to that uh nationals and angels game We're talking about patrick korban earlier on it's actually a guy facing patrick korban now with this one It partly depends on house rules because at fandal and I think at most places if a batter Makes a plate appearance or appears in a game all action stands So For this player he's a catcher logan ohop I would want to wait until lineups come out and I confirm Ohop is in there because a lot of times catchers just don't play so A always know your sports book house rules So you can know how to navigate these things at fandal if ohop Doesn't start the ones of playing later on the bets will stand Which is why I want to wait to make sure he's in the lineup first You don't typically see odds crash on guys once they're in the lineup because it's generally kind of assumed They'll be in there so Plus 680 is ohops home run prop facing off with korban for today Korban is a big part of this a lot of hard contact in his first couple of starts this year But ohop is also a big fact good because last year at double a Both the fillies and the angels He made about 50 plate appearances. He had 20 some runs. So it's really good numbers But it's double a because we're going to translate the majors and So far this year a 15.8 percent barrel rate for ohop. He has a 47 percent hard hit rate now He gets face of lefty I think that ohop is a guy Who's probably pretty legit young guy showed power in the minors last year Has shown power in a small sample this year was pretty good this spring during a spot on the roster so I'm not super skeptical of him. Obviously. There are other power guys in this lineup Taylor ward is not a power guy, but plus 520 not a bad number on him I don't mind brand and jury at 440 Renfro 340 that's probably a bit too short for me But like there are other options you could go with all this angels team Let's say, you know hops on the lineup you can still potentially get exposure elsewhere, but plus 680 to me a really good number. He's not the 950 you can find elsewhere. You can find on um brandon donovan He's 7 to 1 is what I was able to find but uh still Logan ohop plus 680 a good guy for tonight against korban So again, I would hold off until the lineup is out for the angels to make sure ohop is in there because catchers sometimes Do not play they're playing time a bit hard or to predict But if ohop does wind up in there plus 680 to me a very fine number so MLB for today no money lines I like and want to take but uh the strikeout props korban under three and a half strikeouts at plus 1118 That is the angels nationals game Uh got maths over four and a half at plus 102 our course fields Uh logan ohop plus 680 in that nationals angels game to home run and then brandon donovan plus 630 But again shop around on that one to find the best number you can get At the core fuel game against haramon marquez again Plus 630 or up to plus 950 for him there We'll see how that goes for MLB for today But things have gone well so far for the model this year and feeling pretty good about those four specifically Before wrapping for today though got to go back to last week and recap The show here as we do each and every week for the week to week things harder to recap the Daily stuff, uh, but week to week stuff We do want to recap so you can know If what we're saying pass the sniff test and if you want to follow the recommendations We are giving luckily for us the recommendations were good last week. Let's start things off with the masters We had brandon gedula on at gedula 13 to talk the masters and brandon hit himself a winner He said he had value on john rom a plus 950 to win and rom did it by four strokes No less of course didn't go into sunday leading But uh, he was two to one live and data golf had him at about 37% I think to win at that point So I took him two to one live did not get the plus 950 personally But i'll take a two to one winner there and with brandon being in the show it's been a running joke where He will hit a winner a winner an outright bet the week after he's on covering the spread it's happened Three or four times this point so kudos to him to get the scheduling gods to align there And to hit john rom a plus 950 other outrides brandon liked were tony finow 24 to 1 patrick cantley at 19 and zander schoffley at 25 to 1 So didn't matter since rom hit there the non-outrides Where some hits and some misses there hopefully hitting rom helps make up for that the two Two of them were on rory mackerel who of course did not make the cuts They were the top irish player and the top guy from great britain and ireland missed the cuts King close brandon did with victor hovland for a couple different markets He had hovland as the top continental european peon player and in a group bet The problem is that john rom is also from continental europe So he won that one for the group bet it was hovland versus sand burns decky matziyama and brooks capca He beat burns and matziyama But brooks capca was fantastic the entire weekend finished in a tie for second So hard to top that but hovland did play really well came close on bold Had a shot on sunday started the round of third, but couldn't quite get the job done brandon scotty schaeffler as the top former winner at plus 155 But green jacket owners did great on sunday. You got phil nickelson in the top 10 or up there jordan speed patrick reed all finished very well schaeffler was plus 155 did finish top 10 himself, but Couldn't quite get that one there Brandon did it a top 20 that was a walkie neiman at plus 210 Mito perrero was the other i believe at plus 230 or so Neiman wasn't a tie for 20th. So not the full plus 210, but a profit there regardless so Good call on neiman by brandon good call on rom and hopefully a good week for all of you listening out there Again find brandon on twitter i could do with 13 Check out his work over at number fire dot com where he has full simulations of these events and hopefully he can find some value on rom once again For usc 287 we had austin swain mom last week find austin on twitter at a swain three money lines there Wait one and two on the night the hit was on uh was on rob faunt at plus 152 alex praira plus 116 and chris kurtis at plus 108 couldn't quite get the job done But faunt did hit the props for austin one and one the hit was kevin holland that fight over two and a half rounds That was plus 108 that went in in the third round So uh the overhead there a plus 108 for austin other one was joe mirsharch by submission at plus 360 joe pipher Won that event outright so next one there, but austin Doing a good job so far and i did get the faunt one myself So i was happy about that for sure and getting the winner there two or a two and three overall for austin there With a couple plus money wins in the bet as far as nascar goes Good week pretty happy without things went In the truck race it depends on how you played it because when we talked about it I said the firm recommendations were william biering to win at seven to one great n finger top five at plus 275 and parker cligerman top five at plus 350 n figure n finger finished fifth so that went cash That's good to go I said i had value enjoy legano at five to one and had that in myself but I said i preferred buyer between the two and said hey if legano is fast in in practice and i'd be okay betting him as well But there was no practice because it got rained out on friday so The legano one does not count for the podcast The n finger top five does byron finished third finished really well ran well cligerman had some issues So he did not finish the race. I don't believe but So you get the n finger cash. Hopefully you Overruled me on going with byron over legano and bet him I had legano myself so that worked out for me But hopefully you didn't listen to my recommendation of byron over legano Either way a profit if you followed all three, but hopefully you got legano in there as well for the cup series race I had christopher bell to win at plus 650 that was over in the write-up over a number fire not here on the show Which is why i'd recommend checking out the betting guide over a number fire because I'll add bets there after practice that I can't do to the show on the show had a couple of top 10 bets those were tie gibbs at plus 380 eric joe's attend to one and When the race when the checkered flag flew there was a caution on the track and say freeze the field the last loop and they You know Sort out the finishing order and at the time I thought the tie get finished 11th. He was 11th Eric jones is 14th So I thought I missed on both came close on both couldn't quite it either Jones is down like three laps for a lot of that race But got his way back worked his way back up there and gibbs was 17th on the final restart Worked his way forward. I saw what he was in 12th pass another guy thought he's gonna finish 11 but then NASCAR Changed the order they went back and reviewed the video and saw at the time of caution tie gibbs actually head of michael mcdowell So gibbs at plus 380 cashed. I know there was a snafu where they paid out. Uh, mcdowell top 10 bets That's a bummer. It does follow house rules. So again It's always important to be familiar with house rules They followed the rules there that were set forth. So it's a bummer if you had mcdowell and I feel sorry about that But it is the house rules. So make sure you're aware of the house rules and stuff like that but I would I benefited with the the tie gibbs top 10. So No complaints from me. Uh, so the gibbs top 10 at plus 380 cash the jones top 10 At 10 to 1 did not cash finish 14th But overall really fun week here on the show between golf between NASCAR UFC Fun week and hopefully we can duplicate that once again this week here on the show That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned We are back once again tomorrow. We'll talk about some NBA playing games Get you ready for that tournament And talk about best ways you can bet that over at fandals sports book Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also check us out over on the fandal youtube page If you like what you hear give us a thumbs up on youtube and make sure you're subscribed to the fandal youtube page for this plus Up in Adams run it back everything all over here on the fandal youtube page If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jimsonis j i m s a n m e s You can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in here today. Good luck to you with your bets across monday Imagerly baseball. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some NBA This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network