 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We have got a massive weekend in college football coming up in week number 10 We got Tennessee at Georgia, Alabama LSU and some other big games to break down So we're gonna bring on Ben Ben Brown of pro football focus to get his read on that game And so much more the college football playoff rankings to get you set for week 10 in college football This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by dr Ed Feng find his work over at the power rank calm He can catch add on Twitter as well over at the power rank and happy week 10 Happy college football playoff rankings complaining Wednesday to you. How you doing today? I'm doing better than TCU fans. So I guess I can't complain Poor Parker, you know, you know, just can't get any respect out there. Yeah, and I was reading bill Bill Elliott nascar on the mind but Elliott's Twitter He was talking about how like he's given up on putting stock in the college football playoff committee and what they say early on I feel like I'm kind of on board of bud here Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I mean, we'll see we'll see how this all shakes out, but I'm not that upset over it. I mean, I mean, I think those those other teams are better than TCU and We'll see how we'll see how it goes We certainly will and I think the one blessing of the CFP rankings last night as we can pitch the Tennessee Georgia game Is being one versus one depending on the rankings, which is pretty fun Don't get that very often to break down that game love Ben and brown a pro football focus here as well He can find a Ben on Twitter at PFF underscore Ben Brown He has does both college football and NFL bed and work over at PFF and Ben Great to have you on the show today. How you doing today? Yeah, I mean, it's been a little awesome so you guys have me on but I definitely appreciate any time I can come on You know and chat some college football I think this is you know very much the week that we kind of want to focus on you know college football from a betting perspective It's we have I would say a lot some of if not the best, you know marquee matchups and you know what the rankings coming out It obviously, you know the the playoff picture and everything else now That's gonna break down as you know very much fresh on people's minds So I'm excited. Thanks for having me on. Yeah, it gives us fodder to discuss So I guess that's always good for us even if it's not the most predictive stuff They're rankings and all that we can still talk about we'll talk about that Tennessee Georgia game We're also talk some futures markets because Ben doing some pretty cool work for PFF around the football playoffs And we'll talk about that in just one second a first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast, you can also check us out on the fan dual YouTube page to subscribe there And also search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast NBA season is underway And it's the perfect time to download faddle America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 to $1,000 back in free bets if your first bet doesn't win Fandals all your favorite bets from the money line to point spread to player props You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay plus with live betting You'll get updated odds on games that have already started the fandals sportsbook app is safe secure and super easy to use so download Fandals today to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 make every moment more this season with fandals official sportsbook partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus and in select states first online real money wager only refund issued is non with drawable free bets that expired 14 days Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook dot fandal dot com gambling problem call 1800 gambler or was the fandal dot com slash rg in Arizona one hundred next step protection acceptify 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 888 789 777 777 Over the ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana one eight hundred nine with it in Kansas 1 800 1 8 8 789 777 777 105 2 2 400 or ks gambling help calm the numbers all run together Louisiana 1 877 770 stop in New York 1 877 8 hope and wire text open Y in Tennessee call the redline at 1 889 979 in Wyoming 1 800 522 4700 or in West Virginia 1 800 gambler dot net let's take a look now at Week number 10 by starting things off by talking about those playoff rankings last night Finally get our first read from the committee of what they're doing Obviously we can be skeptical of what they're saying if they're trying to drive up rains, etc. Etc But there could potentially be some takeaways here. So Ben before we talk about Your simulations over a pff and stuff like that Were there any betting takeaways for you from what we learned last night quote-unquote learned last night from the committee? Yeah And I think you guys, you know, maybe touched on a little bit already But I think you know TCU kind of big kind of being where the price step Basically to make the college football playoffs plus 500 on draft king or being a dual sorry 16.7% of my probability you could say whatever book you want just of the record you can go ahead We're not gonna care, but this was very much Yeah, this that is the number of fandom behind is very interesting to see, you know We're the committee ranks I'm kind of based on you know The difficult stretch schedule they're gonna have after this match against Texas Tech I think they're you know nine and a half point favorites minus two eighty five on the money line And they have you know back-to-back games against Texas and against Baylor We actually kind of think that you know, they're a little bit undervalued in the betting market right now that plus 500 price We have them closer to you know a 20% implied Probability to make the playoffs a lot of that is you know based on where we have them powering dead in comparison to a team Like Texas and Baylor, I think that's you know, obviously playing some sort of role in it But I also think that you know having them seventh below a team like Alabama kind of you know At least initially forecasting the idea that you know very much a one-last SCC team is going to get ahead of TCU It is maybe I think you know Providing a little bit of value on them to be honest with you We have them as you know the eighth best EPA per pass play so far this season I was also in really good Russian the football and it's kind of you know flipped on its head a little bit from You know the TCU teams of the past that were very you know very dominant defensively And really couldn't move the ball all that effectively I think they're good enough offensively, you know to kind of run through this difficult schedule So I like them at plus 500 I think you know the question is always with some of these futures bet is Are you better off kind of like rolling in that money line if they you know kind of need to run the table in order to get comfortable after you better off betting them You know on the money line for these next five games are just you know catching up that way And I think you know based on where you're kind of projecting the spread for Texas and barely to be at That could be an even more profitable angle to approach TCU than it just is on you know the college ball playoff futures market. I would say Then where do you have TCU in your your PFF numbers and what's going into that? I presume the PFF grades are a key component, but are there other factors as well? Yep, very much so so we do we do definitely do the grades, you know quarterback play specifically We do basically kind of take all of our opponent adjusted Fasting grades and kind of throw that together to kind of build out this power ranking and then we use you know a few different power ranking Approaches within our simulation and also you know in our green line miles and those sorts things So not trying to like you know do a bunch of different work But I think we have what I would consider like you know three underlying power metrics and those things kind of go into then you know Create some sort of like composite score for how we view every team So we have a TCU you know seventh basically right now Kind of using that combined metric and like they you know sit right below a team like Tennessee who we are I would say Very much low on especially in comparison to the betting market I think that's you know our one real main blind spot with kind of how we have You know these top tier teams kind of fleshed out a little bit, but you know outside of Tennessee being wrong I do think that there's you know a very strong case we made for any of these other seven teams You know potentially, you know having what it takes I would say to at least get into the cultural platforms in there You know knock off an SCC team and you know win the championship outside So it's it's it's interesting. Yeah, we have long-winded way of saying we have TCU Seventh I would say in our power rankings metric you alluded to the simulations and the tough part with that is that it Does depend on the human element because there are literal humans who you lean on metrics to make these decisions But how do you kind of bake that into a model because it sounds like a very that probably would be the toughest part So I might be asking you a very difficult question But like how do you account for that when building that model out? Yeah, and we very much, you know rely on Like situations and decisions that the the committee's made in the past, right? I think there's very much been you know a bias towards an SCC team with a one-last team Still getting in if they don't win their conference championship So we very much priced it in where you know if you're not in if you're not in the SCC You're essentially not gonna get in if you don't win your conference championship I would say you know obviously, you know the teams like Notre Dame and all things considered They're obviously not gonna play in it But that that is of course folded in as well We do have you know some level of Expectation of a team like Notre Dame and what they have to kind of accomplish to get in so we basically have you know In idea and model for every type of team and every type of conference and from there You know based on the simulation results as we step through each game We kind of price out, you know Who's the most likely or the or the top-end teams that the committee is gonna choose in this particular simulation? So it is you know, it's very much I would say not a not a perfect science or whatever it is You know something that you know, we try to improve upon it We probably improve on it, you know as much as we would have liked to in the offseason, but It is a you know kind of an interest and a fascinating question because of the you know Like you said the the human element of you know These trying to size up two teams that didn't play each other and don't really have any common opponents and you know All these other factors that go into it And very much I would say, you know, unfortunately prize some biases as well that you know We see kind of year in and year out as far as you know What teams the and what divisions and what conferences, you know The committee may be over or under values a little bit Awesome, let's move on to some big games Obviously the biggest one is Tennessee at Georgia Georgia's eight eight and a half point favorite total of 65 and a half Tennessee's obviously looked very good this year So is Georgia so what is your take on this game? Yeah, I mean I think you know from our from PFS perspective like I said I think we're sitting lower on Tennessee than what I even you know In some ways would be comfortable with right now And we still kind of have them only as you know a six-point differential on a neutral field right now Obviously, you know the fact that this is in Georgia everything else flips it to eight and a half But we are very much kind of on market in this particular match up But you know throwing all of you know what I'm looking at at least as far as like our model specific metrics I think I think Tennessee has a Pretty clear advantage in this match But I think you know some of our stuff still bakes in In an expectation of a Georgia defense. That's probably not as good as what we're actually Probably thinks it's a lot better than what we're actually gonna see on the field here You know on Saturday We still have them as the third best run defense in the SEC second best coverage unit But 11th best from a pass rush perspective and no Nolan Smith, right? I think the pressure situation specifically with Hennan Hooker has kind of been the One spot where he's maybe had a little bit of a hang up and I think that you know scheming with people's You know offensive scheme and how they're kind of gonna approach that they're gonna be able to alleviate a lot of those pressure situations And that makes me Really nervous that Georgia, you know, it is gonna be able to contain Tennessee's offense enough to actually keep this game You know within reason and I just don't know if you know, Georgia offensively maybe has Enough of a top-end range to win a shootout matchup with Tennessee So I think if you're leaning, you know in any one direction It very much is setting up as you know Despite the somewhat widespread Georgia to probably cover at this game to go under or in a very wild game You know kind of not not the same ilk as the Tennessee Alabama game You know a game that very much gets up there and scoring And Tennessee has the possession of wins that and that's kind of you know The the the two I would say pretty much straightforward handicaps And I think it's kind of tough to deviate from you know that expectation based on what I'm looking at right now Does that wind up being a stay away for you then based on the two very clear paths or do you be looking to potentially a You know a a dual situation thing maybe you parlay together a Tennessee plus eight and a half with the over or Georgia minus eight and a half in the under I think that like you could go that route But it seems to me as if the read was that this being more of a Don't bet it and enjoy the game situation more than anything else Yeah, and or you know the other nice thing and something that I've you know Trying to probably actually done a lot more this year than I have in years past Is kind of you know read out the first couple of possessions You know watch the first couple of scripted plays specifically and then and then kind of see if you know if If Tennessee's you know very much getting the ball out Maybe they have a drop or something or maybe they have a you know a negative play from a penalty perspective or something like that That kind of stalls out one drive. I still think that would maybe be a reason to you know Potentially buy into them a little bit and if they are moving the ball, you know somewhat effectively You know playing something on the over even if there are you know a couple early scores would Probably be something I'd be pretty comfortable with as well So I think you know understanding You know directionally how you kind of see the game playing out and then you know waiting for that initial confirmation It's also something I think can be You know pretty profitable and pretty worthwhile strategy to explore One more thing in this game you mentioned that your that pff is a bit lower on Tennessee than the market And they actually viewed them as being properly valued in this game Does that mean you're also a bit lower on Georgia than the market? I mean I see I don't know because we have Georgia as the number one team in the country, right? And I think it you know, it's pretty clear that they are You know pretty sizably You know ahead of the rest of the market, right? We have them, you know kind of like two and a half points better than Ohio State on a neutral field You know three points better essentially three and a half points in some ways better than Alabama. So it's it's it's weird in that You know, I would have expected to probably be on Georgia Maybe it's just you know a bias towards us not really wanting to play some of these more heavy Heavy favorites in a lot of situations. I think is partially why the model is, you know Not finding a ton of value on Georgia specifically in this match up All right, let's move on to the next game. We have Alabama at LSU Alabama is pretty big Road favorite 12 and a half points here total of 57 and a half Freshman looks like he's back from that injury My numbers have liked LSU this year. What are you saying? What are you saying in this game? Yeah, I I still I I've probably bought into Alabama more than I should this year But I think this is a spot that they you know, definitely take her business I think you know a lot of what has been successful for LSU offensively has come You know jade and danos and kind of these you know scramble situations high level of success You know in breaking the pocket and kind of making his own plays and I think that you know, Alabama specifically has You know very much enough from an athlete's perspective on the edge to kind of try and contain him Maybe some of those plays, you know If they're not going for big gains they're only going for short losses because Alabama's kind of able to keep Contained with him in the pocket and I think that you know could very much cause The LSU offense to kind of break down the last situations and like you said with with bryce young back and in the fold I'm expecting a little bit of you know a show out game I would say in some ways for Alabama who you know probably wants to put on You know a few quality performances even as a one-last team to you know Maybe look good in the eyes of the committee and everything else I think we've seen that kind of play out, you know in years past So I think it's kind of Alabama a bust for me in this spot But I'd be I'd be open to hearing the LSU case. I just I'm having a hard time kind of seeing it for this particular match up Yeah, my number is like LSU on both offense and defense when I look at adjusted success rate 13th on offense 19th on defense. It is a talented squad But you know, I mean Alabama is also really good and they're going to have the best player on the field as well So it's just a matter of whether that number is too big Whether what else you can get a backdoor cover or potentially even keep it close keep it within a one-square game Now do you want to talk about bryce young really quickly while we're here because you do some work around the NFL draft We had you wanted to talk NFL draft back in April. I believe Talking about that with bryce young, you know, what's your read on him? Do you think that he we should be viewing him as like when we're trying to you know Bet these college football games ed's talked about how NFL draft stock of quarterbacks can actually matter in terms of this stuff How do you view bryce young in that regard and what does that do for you for viewing this Alabama team? Yeah, I mean, I think I do think he is, you know, one of the two best quarterbacks You know that we're going to have in this class at the NFL level for sure And I very much think that you know, it matters especially in big time spots Um, you know kind of gravitating towards that guy who you very much think is you know pro ready And kind of showcasing that I think it's you know, very much a reason to buy into and I think that you know bryce young kind of finally coming back from the injury a little bit Maybe feels like he has a little bit of ground to make up or whatever, right? And I do think that you know him putting forth a good game, especially after a buy You know, especially given, you know, some of the things that we've heard at least as far as like where he ranks from You know a quarterback prospect perspective Uh, very much can can kind of be baked into that equation. So, you know, he's he's been really good I think he's pff's Um, I want to say top graded quarterback so far this year in his limited sample size I don't have a quick front of me, of course, but um, you know, it has very much I would say Um, showcased at certain points that he can definitely be, you know, a top end guy at the NFL level And I think that you know that and him kind of finally being at full strength Definitely matters for this particular handicap in this game, I would say Yeah, Jim, I definitely believe in in looking at these guys NFL prospects as Part of handicapping college football games I will say that I've been kind of stunned that at one point Anthony Richardson would have the fourth highest odds to be the first pick in the NFL draft Uh, he's no longer the fourth highest That was a wild week That was a wild week and like um So I tweeted that out and someone tweeted back like, uh Have they watched him throw the football? And then the sportsbook tweeted back like we don't watch the games. He's not a running back Oh, no, that is a weird week Which I thought was awesome And then and then also like will levis is also pretty high on these markets to be the first pick and um You know, I saw a little bit of the game against Tennessee. I I don't see it on the field Tennessee is a team that the one thing they can't do is defend the pass that well and Yeah, I don't know. Maybe his hand is still banged up. Um, I don't really know what's going on there, too but uh, it's interesting how, you know, some of these markets kind of Mesh with reality sometimes Right You know, I think it is really interesting and the will levis thing Especially it's like, you know, not a lot of people were talking about him and then, you know, some of the guys I would say specifically in the draft community kind of start to say, you know, he's very much, you know This intriguing type of prospect and then also me vaults up to being, you know, very Very likely to potentially be, you know, at least in the discussion for the number one pick But, um, you know, his injury situation as well, obviously is very much, you know, uh, you know playing A part of that but he I think he's the guy as well that can is going to You know look really good in, you know, shorts and a t-shirt Probably is going to make you every single throw in the football field from that bingo and that's in that situation, right? and I think that, you know Pricing that out and at least trying to evaluate that in the context of the actually actually watching them play college football as well as Is kind of a really interesting, you know Really interesting endeavor at least as far as, you know, how how the off season workouts can greatly impact, you know The movement of these players and where they're going to end up going in the draft But I think you hit it right on the head if we'll love us is Stetson Bennett's height Right, right, right the same odds to be the first pick in the NFL draft Yeah, they stole the tall guys. I don't blame them, but uh, it's definitely still a thing Let's finish up here with Clemson at Notre Dame some movement here in the uh spread It was four and a half yesterday Clemson now a three and a half point favorite at Notre Dame total is 44 and a half and Clemson's played a lot of close games this year, uh, but they are still undefeated You know that counts for something I guess so what's your read on Clemson entering this game and the betting markets for this game? Yeah, I mean I just haven't really been I would say all that impressed with the Clemson offense I know it was really easy to hate on, uh, you know, dju galloway early on in the season But I think it's more, you know, the scheme situation in the play con I mean they really only run, you know, a handful of plays they run like rpo's bubble screens And fade or gall routes or whatever right and that kind of seems to be Their offense and there's there's no unique wrinkle in a lot of ways And I think that you know looking at you know a team like Tennessee versus a team like Clemson like, you know Josh Uphill is very much adding in a lot of these things and maximizing his quarterback's potential And I don't think we're really seeing that you know from Clemson's viewpoint So I think it's a little bit of you know a rebound spot for Notre Dame once again I think they're gonna, you know, even get even more back on track after, uh, you know The performance against Syracuse last week and kind of a you know, a dominating win I would say uh and kind of kind of escape a little bit of their, you know early season struggles So I'm leaning in Notre Dame's direction. It seems like the betting market You know has kind of moved from like, you know, even four and a half and we were kind of first talking You know up to three and a half now So, um, you know as we kind of get closer to game time and some of those, you know Limits change for people and we could see, you know some further movement Maybe we even do test three right now So I think Notre Dame is, uh, you know, kind of the play I just haven't been, you know All that impressed with Clemson bringing it, you know, every single drive in a lot of situations They've had a few big plays but uh, if Notre Dame kind of forced them to, you know, play underneath I think they're gonna get off the field quite a bit on a lot of drives, I would say Well, the scheme thing is something that was there even when they had Trevor Lawrence Like it was like really frustrating to watch them because it's like you have like this like Perceives like generational like talent and you're like running screens Like what do you like this the scheme has been this way for a while and it's like I don't know. It's somehow more frustrating that it's still happening now Than it was with Lawrence there and it would like drove me nuts at that time Right because and they and and and not that they don't have the athletes to run it now or whatever But it was very much like, you know, we're watching this quote unquote generational talent Like you said and they have Travis ET and it's like, well, you know as a first round pick or something Maybe you want to get your ball the ball on the your playmaker's hands But it is it's kind of been the same thing and you know every single year if they continue to kind of roll it out I feel like that's, you know, one more reason why defense should be even further ahead of them And I think that's why, you know, they're very much Even though they're still winning I would say they're very much not thought of as like, you know, the elite level Clemson teams Partly because of the talent but partially because uh, there's just no creativity. I would say offensively Awesome. Uh, any other games that uh, you are liking this week then Yeah, I think, you know tonight in match and I was I was kind of ice cold yesterday riding Buffalo But I'm gonna go back to the well here with you know, central mishkin line has moved against me a little bit I think it's up to like five even five and a half right now I kind of like them as you know first half play plus three and a half I think they're kind of interesting. So if matching's kind of your thing Wednesday night I don't think there's any baseball or too many other, you know outside of outside of the mba or something too many other options So I like central Michigan tonight And one that I think is, you know, you know another rivalry game Talking about but Miami plus seven seven and a half against florida state I do think that you know anything could kind of happen in these matches, right? But I do think Miami, you know, I would say from a from a quarterback perspective, uh, you know better quarterback We have this much closer from a power rankings perspective We would basically make florida like, uh, you know a two and a half point favorite on a neutral field So the fact that we're getting you know, plus seven and a half I very much think this game is setting up as a one-score game So I definitely like the hurricanes plus seven and a half, you know, as well as when my favorite bats here for week 10 I respect the commitment to action over the world series I'll be watching the world series, but I respect the commitment I I didn't I feel like they just played baseball yesterday That also I had to assume that it was but I guess there was a rain out or something right, right No, we're getting it every day for the next couple days You've got your band your brand band. You got to stick to it. I respect there's no other way to go than that Ed, what about you? What do you see if week 10 based on your numbers? Yeah, I mean, I think the most interesting game that I see, um is Uh is this uh Texas A&M and Florida game So my numbers have the total at around 50 Ben and I are obviously giving out the best bets in the history of podcasting this week because it's also moved against me today Went up from about 54 and a half to 55 and a half Um, I've been on Texas A&M. I'm unders a lot this year Their defense has actually played up to the level of recruiting the Jimbo Fisher has had The offense absolutely has not. Uh, it's been pretty bad A lot of that has to do with the quarterback position Haines King came in got benched back up got hurt Uh, Haines King actually dislocated his shoulder against South Carolina and they had to pop it back in and then Conor Wegman Came in he was a true freshman kind of struggled to finish out that game But then you know had a pretty good game last week against old miss and I think this total was high Kind of based on that performance I just I just don't you know on the other side of the ball Let's talk about Anthony Richardson Right like a guy that I trust to to get yards with his legs But not really to throw the football he's going to be going up against a really good Texas A&M defense Texas A&M and offense, you know, I mean Florida is not the best defense they haven't been uh this year under Bill and apier. So I feel like the market has moved a little bit because of one performance from a freshman quarterback Um, I've gotten burned a bunch Fading freshman quarterbacks. I think it's a different era than than what it used to be Uh, I think these kids play so much more football. So so maybe this kid is going to be great I'm not buying it. I like the under in this game. Uh, Texas A&M in Florida Fun feeling to have everything moving against you. I've had that at times too So I I get it for both of you guys, but we'll see At least we're open in admitting it, you know, yeah, some of these other shows like, oh, yeah I mean Didn't help me to get movement on the buck's money line last week. So maybe maybe clv's overrated and I'm just I'm just a dog did not help me to get massive closing line value on the Rams last week either So did not help jamar chase stay healthy got the the movement on the Bengals and it all went away Once jamar chases out so who cares at this point That's the way things go. That is ben brown checking out on twitter at pff Underscore ben brown ben of course to an NFL and college football worker over there ben We appreciate the time. Good luck to you with the maxion and good luck to you overall on week 10 as well Thank you guys. Yeah, good. Good luck to you as well and have a great rest of the show. Thanks for having me on Thanks ben appreciate it. Uh, and what is going on for you over at the powerache? Oh, yeah, I'm writing my free sports betting email newsletter Talk about bets that I make and also 7 o'clock at saturday, which is a curated list of sports betting tips and news So check that out at the power rank dot com And what's going on for you on the football analytics show? The episode isn't out this week, but uh, it'll be It'll be a good enough episode that I will plug it next week when I'm on Okay, that's what they call a tease folks So a good good episode coming up on the football analytics show check out that podcast feed to eagerly await When that one does drop. I am on twitter at jim sonnis a j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you if you decide to tail ben on that maxion We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down week number nine in the nfl This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network