 Welcome to TickMail weekly market outlook for week commencing 18th of May with me Patrick Manley. The markets will continue to pay close attention to rising tensions between the US and China, as the White House continues to ramp up language placing blame on China for the coronavirus crisis in the United States. Risk assets will likely suffer if the tensions escalate to the point of resuming the tit-for-tat trade war or prompting fresh disruptions in bilateral business relationships. Traders are having a hard time deciding whether the easing of coronavirus-related lockdowns will mark the beginning of the global economic recovery or open the door for a second wave of infections that will eventually lead to tighter and more prolonged restrictions. Some US states are reopening before the infection rate is declining and trends in any new infections will be closely monitored by the markets in what will ultimately be a pretty quiet week in terms of US data. The market will continue to monitor the weekly jobless claims to get a sense of just how deep the recession will be. Other US data in the week ahead includes the Philly Fed index, various housing gauges such as building permits and existing home sales. I make technical perspective, the dollar index is trading at the range resistance, the descending trend line. Also at the monthly R1, if we can't get a close above this 140 level, then I'm looking for a move back down to initially retest the 9950 monthly pivot and ultimately enroute to test the descending trend line support down to 9840. However, if we do get a close through that 150 level then look for the interim equality objective at 101.30 to be tested. Talking about the dollar, let's check in with gold. Gold broke out of its contracting range this week and we are now looking for a test of the equality objective at this 1766 level. Watching this area closely, bearish reversal patterns here and I'll be looking to set short positions initially targeting a move back down to 1670. However, if we get a close through this 1766 level then Bulls will be targeting a test of the 1850 as the next upside objective. In the Eurozone, focus is going to be on the flash PMIs for May coming out of Europe with expectations for a bounce following the eye popping falls that we saw in April. Eurozone final April inflation and May flash consumer confidence will also be released along with the German ZEW report for May. From a technical perspective, the Euro dollar is still holding this ascending trend line support and whilst we don't get a close below this 10770 area then I'm going to be looking for a move higher in the Euro to test the 109 and ultimately descending trend line resistance of 10950. You can get a close above there then we have an equality objective, the interim equality objective at 11055. Note, if we get a close below this 10760 area that's going to be a bearish development that's going to open a retest for me of the 10630 area. In the UK it's going to be a relatively busy week with respect to data. We have employment data, CPI, PPI and RPI, retail sales and flash PMIs also due. Now obviously we're expecting all of that data to be significantly weaker due to the pandemic and the impact it's having on the UK economy. Markets are to some degree looking through that data but the thing that impacted the sterling most noticeably into the back end of last week were the issues with the stalling in terms of the Brexit negotiations and they're likely to continue to weigh on the pound. As we open the week I'm looking for a test of this 120 area, 50% retracement of the advance of the crisis lows and we have the 161 extension of this structure here. So I'll be looking for a test of 120. Any bullish reversal patterns in here holding above the monthly S2 at 11980 bullish reversal patterns could set long positions to target initially a move back through 12270 and the equality objective and ultimately back up to test the 12460 monthly pivot area. However, if we do get a close below 11980 I'll be a significantly bearish development and we'll open a move back down to 11670. In Japan next week a pretty full calendar as well includes Q1 GDP, machine orders, trade data and nationwide CPI. That data slate is going to again obviously be significantly hampered by the coronavirus impact on all global economies really. So once again looking at the technical setup here for the dollar yen. Whilst we hold below this 10830 which would be the symmetry swing resistance. We also have potential here for an internal equality move. So if we trade up into this 10830 area I'll be looking to set short positions there. Looking for bearish daily reversal patterns to set short positions. Ultimately targeting a move down to test this long awaited 10450. Only a close back through 10870 would negate the downside and open a move up to retest 10950's resistance. Finally in Australia there isn't actually any top tier data of note next week. Although we do get the RBA minutes and we will also see RBA Governor Lowe participating in a panel discussion next week. The market will pay close attention to any change in tone from the RBA especially after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was more dubbish in their tone than expected last week and flagged the possibility of negative rates in the medium term. Also noteworthy for Australians we have the China National People's Congress which was delayed due to COVID-19. It's actually due to begin on Friday and investors and traders will be looking for indications of further fiscal stimulus which could by proxy add support to the Australian dollar. From a technical perspective looking for the Australian dollar to make a test of the 6370 to 6340 area. Once again watching for any bullish reversal patterns here to set long positions. Ultimately targeting the primary equality objective versus the crisis low which has us up at this 67 level. It's also the 78.6% retracement of the other recent decline. So looking for bullish reversal patterns in around the 6350, 6330 area set long positions targeting the 67. However fail to find support here if buyers don't step in then I'm looking for a deeper decline back into the 6250 and once again we're watching for any bullish reversal patterns to try to attempt longs looking for this 67 target as the ultimate objective. Once again once we get up here certainly watching for the potential to set short positions then as this will complete the initial corrective cycle for the Australian dollar. Okay that's covered all the pairs and I hope you found this useful and concludes the weekly market outlook for week men seeing the 18th of May.