 Should countries in Africa follow the same path to prosperity? Or do they need to forge a new one? The growth of Japan, followed by Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and of course China, has been nothing short of extraordinary. Between 1990 and 2013, this growth lifted more than a billion people out of extreme poverty. The world has changed a great deal since the East Asian Miracle, so how can Sub-Saharan Africa grow in the 21st century? There are at least three reasons why manufacturing may be a leading sector in the process of economic transformation. It's a tradable activity, which means it's subject to international competition, and firms are forced to innovate. Secondly, manufacturing is a learning intensive industry. Third, manufacturing converges to productivity levels that are characteristic of the best practice in the world, regardless of where in the world manufacturing activities are found. Three trends in the global economy suggest that it may be more difficult for Africa to industrialize than it was for Asia. When East Asia broke into the global economy, it confronted the global north, a high wage but high productivity part of the world. Today, African firms are competing with East Asia, a relatively lower wage, high productivity part of the world. Secondly, manufacturing as a share of output is declining. It may not be able to play the same role in structural change in Africa as it did in Asia. Finally, we live in a world of global value chains. They offer an opportunity to break into a segment of the global market. The bad news is they're highly intensive in trade logistics, an area in which African countries haven't excelled. Despite this bad news, there are a number of activities that have characteristics very similar to manufacturing. We call these industries industries without smoke stacks. They include horticulture, agro-processing, tourism, tradeable services, and light manufacturing. The lesson for Africa, I think, is to follow the same path, but to adapt to the new realities and new industries of the 21st century. The next question is how to make the right interventions. And that's the subject of a series of lectures available online for free.