 Kazakhstan and Russia have been partners since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Kazakhstan participates in many Russian-led organizations such as the CIS, CSTO, and Eurasian Economic Union. However, especially in the past year, Kazakhstan has tried to distance itself from Russia, causing great anger in the latter, who has tried to end this trajectory. But why would Kazakhstan try to leave behind its strongest partner, and what factors have led to this deterioration of historically warm relations? Welcome to today's episode of Max World Politics Report. The war in Ukraine has distracted Russia a great deal from its other obligations, such as keeping its allies in line. Aside from Belarus, no other CSTO nation has militarily supported Putin's invasion, and none of the alliances members have spoken out in support of Russia besides Kyrgyzstan and Belarus. Perhaps the CSTO nation most outspoken against the war has been Kazakhstan. Though officially taking a neutral stance, Kazakhstan's actions show that it is no longer willing to let Russia direct its foreign policy at the expense of their bilateral relationship. With their constant struggles in maintaining a foothold in Ukraine, Russia would have no energy to crush dissent amongst its partners, and this holds true with Kazakhstan, which is proving to be an ally of circumstance. Despite helping the nation crush its own internal unrest in January of 2022, Russia has not been repaid any favors by Kazakhstan since, and seeing Russia's distraction in Ukraine has given the country the perfect opportunity it needs to branch out and create its own path. The Tokai of government has refused to send Kazakh troops to Ukraine, while simultaneously providing the country with humanitarian aid. In retaliation, Russia has cut off Kazakh oil at several points, putting a massive threat on the oil-dependent country's already-suffering economy. Yet such actions seem to have only emboldened Kazakhstan's path to political independence. Azerbaijan has become a country of interest for Kazakhstan to sell its oil through to bypass potential future hostile actions by Russia. The two nations share a common Turkic origin, and have grown closer in recent years due to greater Pan-Turkic cooperation. This partnership would further help connect Kazakh oil to European markets as the EU seeks to find energy alternatives from Russia, and Azerbaijan has committed to increase its oil exports to Europe. Though such a move would certainly sour relations between Kazakhstan and Russia even further, it would only be one of many moves in the past week that have put this relationship on eggshells. Along with many other nations which border Russia, Kazakhstan has been swamped with mostly young Russian men fleeing Putin's new draft that has been put in place in their home country. This draft comes as a consequence of Ukraine making unexpected gains in previously occupied parts of Kharkiv Oblast, among other failures on Putin's part during the invasion. Fearing being sent to die in a battlefield with little meaning to them, many Russian men have fled the country, while others have stayed behind to protest the move. With nearly 100,000 entering Kazakhstan since September 21st, President Tokayev has called on the country to protect and help these people, making the case that their plight is a humanitarian issue. Many have already started applying for Kazakh citizenship, while others cross through the country to other destinations such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Considering Kazakhstan's geographic position, their pledge to protect Russians fleeing the draft in their country in a sense protects those who went to other countries further south, should these nations force them to turn back to Russia, though Uzbekistan has also pledged not to deport Russians fleeing their country. It will be difficult for Kazakhstan to deal with this population influx, so we will watch how the country will react to these difficulties in the coming weeks. As for now, however, Kazakhstan is standing its ground, despite opening the possibility for Russia to act aggressively and accuse the nation of holding Russian citizens hostage. Kazakhstan is also holding its ground on another particularly sensitive issue for Russia, which regards its recently annexed territories in Ukraine. Like most nations across the globe, Kazakhstan has made the choice to support Ukraine's territorial integrity and therefore not recognize the Russian annexation of four oblasts in the south and east of the country. Aside from Belarus and potentially North Korea, there are likely no other nations in the world which will recognize this annexation soon, including most of Russia's allies. This once again shows how Russia is unable to have most of its allies support its foreign policy and stay under their leadership. Kazakhstan has led the way for nations to break free of Russian influence in many respects, due to its size, resource wealth, and current economic connectedness to Russia. If other countries see how Kazakhstan can pull itself from Russian influence successfully, others, especially in Central Asia, will do the same. Yet the question of why Kazakhstan feels the need to start its own path independent of Russia has not been addressed yet. To answer this question, we're going to have to go back a little bit in time and look at the history of Kazakhstan's internal politics. Though some reforms to promote Kazakh identity were implemented under the rule of Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, he was a relic of the Soviet era which preceded his nation's independence, and he remained a close partner of Vladimir Putin. Nazarbayev put many of his family members in important positions in government to cement his rule. Due to his aging, he resigned from presidency in 2019 while still remaining in government, and was replaced by ally Kasim Jomar to Tokayev, who rebranded the capital Astana with his predecessor's name. However, this alliance was shaky to start, and amid the January 2022 protests, Tokayev was able to remove the Nazarbayev family from government completely, formally ending his era. This move has made Tokayev particularly popular, and amid this surge, he reverted the capital's name back to Astana, and has promised to implement many new reforms which would politically and economically open the country, breaking ranks with many of the post-Soviet states. Tokayev and the rest of Kazakhstan are beginning to see Russia transform from a reliable economic partner to a rogue state riddled with insecurity. Pursuing their own path will be the only way that Kazakhstan can ensure its future, as relying on Russia at this point will put them in great peril of sharing the problems Russia will face very soon. Building relations with its Turkic allies, China, and even the West to some extent will help Kazakhstan keep a healthy balance of partnerships as it attempts to build a global economy. The next few years will have the potential to be very rough for the country, but with their current plans, I first see that Kazakhstan can make it out of this turbulent time is a very strong regional force. Their population is growing steadily, especially in contrast to neighbour Russia. The birth rates of ethnic Kazakhs at around three children per woman are at least twice that of ethnic Russians, maybe around 1.5, depending on which sources you look at. With Russians declining as a percentage of their own country's population and Turkic and Caucasian Muslims quickly filling the population gaps, turbulent times face Russia. We have yet to see how Kazakhstan reacts, but I would not be surprised to see them, along with an onslaught of Turkic allies, support independence movements for these groups, as well as make their own territorial claims on the former Russian Federation. However, I don't see this as happening until the 2040s when Muslims have reached a critical mass of Russia's population. Also, this is just a topic for a different time. As you have seen, the past year has been a difficult one for Kazakhstan-Russia relations. I don't predict it will get any easier, as Russia under the helm of Putin becomes a more reckless and paranoid state, and as Kazakhstan continues to notice this in plans for its own future. Only time will tell if these two Eurasian giants come to resolve their differences or duke it out in a final showdown decades down the road. Thank you for watching today's episode. If you like my work, please consider supporting me on Patreon to obtain access to exclusive maps and future updates. Tell me in the comments what you want to see next, and I will see you then.