 Hey everybody, I'm Greg Sussman joined today by Ralph Michaels of wagertalk.com to break down who you want to bet on the rest of the way in the NCAA tournament. What's going on Ralph? You know what? What an exciting tournament. We didn't have quite those finishes, haven't had the upsets, but we're seeing an elite group of teams here in the sweet 16. And before we discuss exactly who we're betting on and who makes the most sense to bet on, there's a couple of qualifications that I know you're using to try to decide who you want to place a wager on. Where do we start with that? Well, you know, it's a system. A good friend of mine, Mark Lawrence, came up with a few years ago. And of the last 18 national champions, 17 have fallen into these categories. And some things are just common sense, you know, to go through them. Teams have been from the major conferences and have been top three seeds. That means you're a top 12, top 15 team. No surprise. That means you have depth. That means you're a solid team. You've averaged over 73 points. You have have allowed under 73 points. You've had a scoring margin of over seven points per game. You face the top 75 schedule. And you've had a coach with six or more tournament appearances or an elite aid appearance, and you were in the tourney last year, or you have an all American this year, those are the, those are the, those are the scenarios that teams have to fit in to win the tournament. And five teams fit into those scenarios. Four of them, I think in advance, I left one out from the six teams. I am personally willing to bet to win the national championship. This is not what Ralph is just suggesting you do. It's what he is actually willing to do. Place his money where his mouth is and bet on one of these teams. And let's begin with the top team in the country. That's number one, Duke, the number one overall seed in this tournament, who came within millimeters of losing to UCF, Taco, Johnny Dawkins and more. But Duke survives and advances. And that's the name of the game, Ralph. You know, I'm invested in the Zags. I was hoping they would lose, but you go back and you look at the national champions, most of them have had a close game. It's not a surprise. People forget that during March Madness, these matchup situations occur. Duke is one of the teams that fits the system. Duke needed 10 three pointers to win against UCF. That benefits in moving forward. Guys that could hit a meaningful three late in the game. That's going to make him even tougher. I mean, you can't leave Duke out. The value is not there because they're a heavy favorite. But if you're going to say to me, the top six teams to advance, no question, they need to be part of that. Duke always one of the favorites in this year is no different. They have the All-Americans. They have the number one overall pick coming. And well, they have coach Mike Shashevski. Obviously, lots of like when it comes to Duke. Another popular bet that Ralph is in on. It's like Kentucky Wildcats, man, with John Calipari, who got a scare from Wofford over the weekend and now advances to a tough matchup in the sweet 16. Why do you like Kentucky? Again, Kentucky is another team that fits into the system of being one of those teams that can win the tournament. And when you have an injury like PJ Washington's injury, he got hurt against Tennessee in the SEC finals. He's missed the last two games. They may be able to get by Houston without him because Houston is not a very tall team. Six foot nine is Houston's tallest starter. But they'll certainly need them after that. So if PJ Washington is back and healthy, I do like the Wildcats. An elite team, top 11 offense and defense, as far as efficiency is concerned. John Calipari at the helm, you know what you're getting. The freshman almost came up small. That needs to be a lot better on in the sweet 16 in order to get by. Up next, continuing on to the best best from Ralph Michaels here. We get to Michigan State and sporty. You know how good they are with Tom Izzo tough matchup here in the sweet 16. Why do you like the Spartans to move on and have a good chance to win at all? Well, what you said is half of my reason, Tom Izzo, Tom Izzo, Tom Izzo, Tom Izzo and you add Cassius Winston in there and elite point guard. And they have enough to get it done. This year is surprising. They have a much better offense than they've had. They've had an elite defense and they played Michigan down the stretch. Three times in those last couple of weeks, they were down in all three games. They ended up winning all three games easily. That's the perfect type of test to get you ready for the sweet 16 and further into the tournament. The path is there potentially an elite eight matchup with Duke. What we all want to see Cassius Winston becoming a star before our eyes. So anyway, on North Carolina, the one team that you know can beat Duke. Well, they've kind of had it easy for the most part this tournament as Luke May has done his thing in the sweet 16. Well, it won't be any easier anymore. What do you think North Carolina? Well, you know, with North North Carolina, again, you have an elite offense and elite defense and elite coach, but what they do different than everyone else we've talked about so far is pace. They are one of the quickest 10 tempo teams in the country. They come at you at waves. We're going to see a battle against Auburn coming up in this in the sweet 16 round. But again, they just have so many go to scores. They pass the ball so well, but they also press the tempo. You're going to see a lot of team struggle against them, especially the second day of the weekend tournaments, because those teams aren't used to playing this pace this late in the year. Absolutely. It's it's not they're not accustomed to it. They're not ready for it. It could be the difference for North Carolina moving on in the sweet 16. Up next, we move on as well. And we go to the team that you've been in on here, Ralph. And that's the Gonzaga Bulldogs. They survived pretty easily through the first two rounds. And now they face a Florida State team that beat them last year. Why will this year be different? Well, you have a team with Rui Hachimura and Clark that has gotten him here. And those two are all American type candidates, but no one talked about Killy and Tilly. He's only played 11 or 12 games this year. He is just back getting healthy. He put up he put up 18 points in 17 or 18 minutes in his last game. And he's a difference maker. Six foot 10 potential NBA first round draft choice. Fresh rested, a big guy rested in March is something most teams don't have. And the Gonzags, again, they're a team that didn't play that top 75 schedule. They don't fit into that into the method that we talked about. But again, it's a flyer team. And with the experience they've had to get here and advance deep into the tournament the last few years, they're my pick. Gonzaga has been your pick the entire way, despite losing in their conference finals tournament to St. Mary's, you thought it was a real buying opportunity for Gonzaga. And we'll see if you are right. And then they continue on here this weekend. One more team in there and there's a team you're leaving out that kind of qualifies into yours and Mark Lawrence system with that in a second. But the one team left in there, it's Texas Tech who you're picking over Michigan, Michigan and Texas Tech, very similar teams. Why are you going with Texas Tech over Michigan? You know, this is funny to say, but Texas Tech's most difficult game may be this sweet 16 matchup against Michigan because of Charles Matthews, the Wolverines defender. If they get by him, we have the number one defense as far as efficiency is concerned, you have a player that's going to be drafted as a lottery pick in Jared Culver. If Jared Culver can score 20 or more points and get Texas Tech enough offense, the Red Raiders can beat anyone. If someone could shut down Jared Culver, the Raiders are going to struggle. That's the key to the entire run from here on out for Texas Tech. It's all on Jared Culver. If he can do enough, well, they'll move on and potentially go to the final four. If not, they'll be out before even getting to Gonzaga. One last team that is not in your favorite bets, but qualified for the system. Why did you leave Tennessee out? Well, Tennessee is that team that fits all the parameters we talked about. But to me, they have an efficient offense. They don't have that elite defense. I think teams can take their top two scores out of play. I think they really struggle. The ball has to go through Tennessee's top two scores. I just don't think they have enough enough intense defense to be able to move forward and advance to the final four. All right, we'll see Adam Rose Schofield took himself out of the game last time out. He's going to need a big game if Tennessee is going to advance. We're going to take a break. When we come back, Ralph Michaels picks every game on Thursday night. You're not going to want to miss this. It's free money. Stick around more from Ralph Michaels of wagertalk.com right after this. Back with you here on the Fandal Hurry up Greg Susman and Ralph Michaels and Ralph, where could the people follow you on Twitter to get some picks? You know, at Cal Sports LV is my Twitter handle. I like putting up a lot of angle systems, information that people can use to help them handicap, not only for a specific game, but moving forward. So if you go back and follow me and go back and look at my previous posts, there's a lot of little tips in there to help you again, moving forward with your handicapping on Thursday, the first game is one that matters quite a bit to you, Ralph. And that's Gonzaga taking on Florida State Gonzaga right now at six and a half point favorite. What do you think about the Bulldogs against Florida State? And I already know, why don't you break it down? Well, people that have watched our videos are going to think it's an automatic. I'm on Gonzaga, but I'm not. Wow. This is a seven point spread in this game. And that's significant. Yes, they have revenge from a sweet 16 loss. They lost 75 to 60 last year. But again, how much more motivation do you need when you're at the sweet 16? You don't need losing as motivation to advance. What I, you know, this is Gonzaga's first top 25 team they faced since December 15th when they lost to North Carolina. The Seminoles, Leonard Hamilton, six and one ATS as a dog in March Madness. And Florida State is such a unique team. They're one of the tallest teams in the country. They have six foot four and six foot five guards, huge wingspans. It changes your passing lanes. Florida State, I think, keeps us close. I actually like the Seminoles plus the points. But I think Gonzaga wins the game and moves on. Even though Ralph loves the Bulldogs, he's not letting his heart win out here. He's taken Florida State with the points. Leonard Hamilton has had a coach in the tournament. You saw it last year if you're a Bulldogs fan. Not enough this time to get by Gonzaga, says Ralph Michaels. Up next, Purdue in Tennessee, one of the games I'm most looking forward to. It's basically a pick up right now. According to the Fandall Sportsbook, Tennessee is a one point favorite. We've seen that line fluctuate already. Purdue is hot. Who do you like here? Well, when you look at a team like Purdue and you say, well, you played in the Big Ten, you played a non-conference schedule, they've only played three top 15 offenses the entire year. And that was Michigan State twice and Virginia Tech. The difference between Michigan State and Virginia Tech and Tennessee is the Sparty and the Hokies are two of the slowest offenses. Tennessee is going to press this tempo. Tennessee is the most one of the most efficient offenses, their number four in the country. Matt Painter, 0 and 4, straight up in ATS and Sweet 16 tournaments. And SEC teams in the Sweet 16, the last 19, 13, 4 and 2 against the spread. Again, people don't give the SEC enough credit. It used to be Kentucky and everybody else, but now they beat each other up in the regular season. It's helped them quite a bit when we get to this stage. It certainly has. In this spot, well, they have senior leadership. They have Rick Barnes, who's been there. I know he's letting a lot of people down in the past. But Tennessee, Purdue, it should be a really good game. I'm looking forward to it. Up next, the other game I'm most looking forward to on Thursday. And I think most people are in Texas Tech and Michigan. Michigan is a two point favorite against Texas Tech. What are you thinking here? Well, you know, I've got a number for you, which is actually going to go against my play. This is the early 81st March Madness tournament. When a number two seed plays a number three seed, they've actually gone 39 and 24, 61.9 percent straight up. That's a pretty high number when you have two teams this evenly matched. But, you know, to me, this is the matchup of the entire tournament. Charles Matthews, an elite defender, missed multiple games before the tournament, played limited minutes, just came back against Jared Culver. It's if you're going to watch one match up the entire tournament, this is the one. What concerns me about Michigan is this, as we mentioned earlier, they've played Michigan State three times the last two weeks. They had a 41-29 lead in the first game. They got outscored 36 to 19 down the stretch. They had a 35-23 lead in the second game, got outscored 52 to 28. Led 51 to 45, got outscored 32 to 19. They don't have the go to scores late in the game. Texas Tech and Michigan State very similar teams to me. Texas Tech, the number one defense as far as efficiency is concerned. Absolute shutdown. I don't think Michigan can find enough scoring. I also like the under, as I said, with Matthews on Culver, I think it's going to be a game where the winner may be the first team to 50. It's going to be a low scoring game. Two of the best defensive teams in the nation. And will they be able to get to 50? And how quickly? You've actually got to be asking yourselves, Ralph likes Texas Tech. He likes the under, that means you should too. One more game for Thursday night. It's Virginia taking on Oregon. Virginia, pretty heavy favorite with eight points right now being the spread. Oregon was a 12-C in this tournament. But a lot of people like them to get to this spot. What say you on Thursday night, Ralph? Well, I've been on the ducks for a long time. 10 straight wins, 10 straight covers, 54 points per game in that stretch. No team has shot over 42 percent against the ducks and Dana Altman. You have a great March Madness coach in Altman. And you have to remember, the ducks are a team that had to change in November, late November, their seven foot two bubble, five star recruitment. The new bull sun went out with injury. The entire offseason was built around him on offense and defense. It took a while for the ducks to get reformed into this version. This is another game where I like under 119 and I like the dog. I don't see Virginia being able to get enough margin. And while the ducks had couple games go over the total the first two rounds, that's because they had a double digit lead and there was fouls and teams pressed the pace. I like the under and I like the dog in what's going to be a very slow and low scoring methodical game. I like the under a lot. The ducks play a very good defensive game as Dana Altman changes around, as you mentioned, and we all know already how good of a defensive team. Virginia is to the under makes a lot of sense as does covering those eight or has those rather the Oregon ducks getting within those eight points. I like Oregon plus the points myself. That's going to do it for us here on the FanDuel hurry. If you want to thank Ralph Michaels, you could follow on Twitter at Cal Sports LV picks analysis and trends. You can get all of the picks from all the guys at wagertalk.com before the tournament begins again on Thursday. Ralph Michaels, I'm Greg Sussman. Thanks so much for watching. We'll see you back here tomorrow.