 Good morning and welcome to the Monday Market Update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday at the 4th of March 2019 and the time has just gone at 910 GMT. Eglio markets in Europe are hard today after a very positive session in Asia last night. It was reported overnight that the US and China are close to a trade deal. That same report stated that the Beijing authorities are considering cutting or even eliminating the tariffs that are imposed on US goods imported into the US and vice versa. It was also reported that the US are contemplating trimming or eliminating entirely the tariffs on Chinese imports on the tariffs on Chinese imports brought into the United States. This is a bold and better sentiment and if this is not to be true it wouldn't be a major surprise given that in the last few weeks the few bits and pieces of information that we have heard from the trade talks have been positive. Hopes have been high for a number of weeks and I will see a continuation of that. That's basically the major stories of say the last 72 hours with the US China trade hops. If we just take a look and remember what happened at the back end of last week we had disappointing manufacturing numbers from a number of Eurozone countries, Italy, Spain and Germany all posted manufacturing figures which were in negative territory, contraction territory. In some respect the poor economic indicators of the Eurozone have actually in a strange way have actually helped encourage some traders to buy up Eurozone stocks. Some traders have fallen back to the old habit of bad news is good news. In that bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market whereby there's already been a bit of talk the European Central Bank might introduce a new round of tariff liquidity and the belief is that the worst economic situation in the Eurozone continues to be or the worst it even gets it makes it more likely that the European Central Bank are going to have some sort of stimulus package beat in the form of target ending or whatever that may be and I will be touching on the European Central Bank towards the end of this video in relation to the week ahead. There are the two main drivers of global equity markets and probably the biggest stories of global financial markets in the past few days. If you take a look now at what's going on in the starting off with the FTSE 100, taking a look at some of the major markets, we can see that and this has been a common theme for global stock markets for the last few months. The FTSE has been bouncing back since late December. We're now seeing a nice series of higher highs and higher lows. Granted we're not at the highs of 2018 but if you can hold above the 7,040 level on the FTSE 100, we could look to press on higher from here, we could look at targeting 7,200 or this region in around here 7,220. It acted as a fairly significant area of support in the back end 2018 so it may act as a significant level in the near term. As you can see here we traded above 7,220 on a couple of occasions but the market drifted back below so keep an eye out for that area should you press on higher from here and if you go beyond that keep an eye out for this red line here the 230 moving average which comes to play at 7,274 which should we see a size to break below 7,040 this area here we could find support coming at the play from this yellow line here the 100 day moving average which comes into play at 6,974 and we can see how it acted as both resistance and support not that long ago and the metric has actually supported resistance recently it makes it more likely it will do so again in the future on top of that we can see that the the 50 day moving average this this blue line here is also has also taken up so the 50 day moving average kind of comes into play at the same area as the 100 day moving average and we can see that the 50 day moving average also acts as support recently so making potentially making this this region all the more important should we see a sizeable sell-off taking a look now at what's going on over in Germany the tax very similar picture in Germany whereby the market has been bouncing back since late December when I was seeing a nice series of higher highs and higher lows so excuse me we are seeing a decent bounce back from the sell-off that we saw at the back end of last year we recently hit multi-month highs on the DAX and the general market so a good indication of how optimistic sentiment is and if you can continue to kind of press on higher from these current levels and we're currently at around 11,635 if you can continue to press on higher from here we could be looking at targeting this region here where this line is it comes into play just south of 11,700 around 11,690 that area acted as a fairly significant region of support in the early part of 2018 so because it was significant back then if you know it's likely to be significant in their term and if we can break above 11,690 we can get above that metric the next area to keep an eye on for will be this red line here to the moving average which comes into play at 11,855 and should we go beyond that we could be looking at targeting the big psychological number of 12,000 now we have been rallying for well for a few months but also for the last few weeks we've been in a fairly solid upper trend since the early early February so we a bit of a move to the downside or a pullback wouldn't be an entire surprise so if you do drift lower on the backs you could be looking at heading back down towards 11,500 or perhaps even where this trend line comes into play and if you get the trend line by drawing a line between the highs of June 2018 through July 2018 and through the highs of September 2018 granted another market traded above a few times but by and large this trend this trend line has been reflected at number of occasions so if you do drop below 11,500 you could see the tax drift back down towards this trend line which you come into play some of the region of around 11,200 so 11,280 or 11,300 and if you do drop below that this yellow line here the 50 moving average at 11,203 may come into play as support excuse me turning our attention now to US markets starting off with the S&P 500 so the S&P 500 has been a solid upward trend since late December we've managed to push above this red line here the dirty moving average we've closed above it on a number of occasions and even though the US markets aren't open for a number of hours the futures were indicating the futures are indicating then we're going to open in around the 2814 15 mark and it could be close to a potentially significant area of the S&P 500 this region here the highs of October November and early December are all in around 2817 2820 and given that these areas all acted as resistance back in the last few months of 2018 it makes it more likely that they're going to be significant in the near term and like I said given that the price action that were looked at were tips to open that for the S&P 500 it wouldn't be a million miles away from these levels so if we can push higher and we can trade above S&A 2820 that would be and hold above it that would be quite significant and it could and it would suggest that way we got further it's pulled us in the direction of potentially further ground to be made so we could be looking at targeting this area up around here 2866 excuse me and if you go beyond that we could be looking at targeting 2900 but if you do see a pullback because obviously there's been a number of pullbacks in recent weeks and months if you do see a bit of a pullback on the S&P 500 support might come into play from this red line here the tourney moving average which comes into play at 2750 and if not from potentially this trend line here which is comes into play just in just north of 2700 it's a similar situation over on the DAX apologies over on the Dow Jones rather the Dow the Dow has made a solid comeback since late December we've reached recently reached multi month highs on the Dow the market is tipped to open in around 26128 if you can press on higher from here we could be looking at targeting the early November high of 2678 2678 I should be pressed on beyond that they could be looking at heading up towards the psychology important 27000 area if you do see any pullbacks on the Dow Jones we support might come into play from this red line here the tourney moving average which comes which is comes into play in around 25126 and even if you drift drift below that support might come out might be found in around the kind of 25000 markets a big psychology number but also coincides with this trend line here as well we've talked a lot about uh markets have been pushing to the upside let's talk about a market that's been pushing to the downside uh gold um has been selling I said a few uh negative sessions recently now the market in the wider picture has made it kind of began its bounce back in in august mid august the market started to shake off the recent downturn that it was in but really from about mid November onwards you see the nice series of higher highs and higher lows except recently uh the market has managed to turn over itself it took off the recent lows of early February and we're now sitting in around the kind of 1287 1288 mark so we're still in the upward trend we just we've just now seen a fairly decent um we all see a very decent pullback so the market's moving lower if you can take a look at the MACD indicator of MACD histogram negative momentum is steadily rising so the downward move and the online gold market is being confirmed um by the steady increase in negative momentum so for the time being the sellers are in control if we do drift lower in the near term support might be found in around the 1276 area um but if the wider upward trend does manage to kick in because like I said it's been recovering since since october since august and it's really been pushing higher since mid november if the wider upward trend can't come back into effect we could see it's heading and if you do take a retake 1300 we could be looking any back up towards 1320 and then if you move beyond that we could be looking at targeting 1350 or even up around 1366 turning our attention now to Brent on the oil market Brent crude so similar situation to to um to equities Brent began its bounce back in late december and if you're trading by and large uh in upward trend uh since basically uh throughout 2019 but recently it has been um has been you know edging slightly lower as we seem to be having a jolt higher follow by a bit of sideways trading you're perhaps slightly to the downside followed by another jolt higher and so on and so forth so we've recently hit uh multi month highs last week on on Brent but the market has been drifting a small but lower but ultimately if we hold up on this area here at 63 spot 35 uh we could see further gains being made and should be pressed on higher from here we could be looking at targeting the mid november high of 68 spot 36 and beyond that up to 70 dollars a barrel if you do see a break below this area here at 63 spot 35 support might be found from this blue line here the 50 moving average at 61 spot 13 how we can see how that the that acted as both um resistance and support not that long ago so the metric has been important in the past it makes it more likely it'll be important in the future it's a similar picture to WTI West Texas Intermediate the market bounce back in late december it has been pushing higher we have seen multi month highs being ratcheted up recently but we have been a bit lower in the very near term but ultimately what's it gonna hold today above this the other line here the one or two moving average in around 55 spot 19 or 55 dollars a barrel if you hold above that we could see further ground being made and we could see it's heading up towards this area here once again the kind of mid november highs in around 58 spot 10 and if you go beyond that we could see the psychology important 60 bucks a barrel being brought into play if you do see a move at the downside support might be found from this blue line here in 52 spot 28 looking now at the currency markets so looking at say from mid january onwards broadly speaking euro dollars has been in a downward trend uh a lower low a lower high another lower low and then we had to bounce back and this could potentially be another lower high so while we remain south of the kind of 114 region or 114 20 we could see further losses to be made on the euro dollar and should we should we push continue to uh should we continue to drive lower we could be looking at targeting this area here in around one spot 12 16 and then it moved beyond that might bring the one spot 11 10 area into play uh take a look now at pound dollar so cable starting versus the u.s. dollar with the exception of this this this particular candle here in January it's been in a broadly speaking upward trend uh from about mid to mid to december onwards as you can see here the market um the market the market only last week hit a level not seen since july last year so give an indication of actually how full of sentiment has been in relation to the pound so while we hold above the uh the 132 area and the 130 area which coincides with the turning moving average while we hold above the same say the 132 area we could see um this upward trend continuing and if you like to take out the one spot 33 61 area we could be looking at targeting the june uh early the early high of june 2018 in at one spot 34 72 uh like i said it's only if we drop drop back below the kind of 130 area which coincides with the turning moving average because then we potentially see further ground last and if you do drop below that area you can take us back down towards the uh one spot 27 75 area taking a quick look now at the week ahead and the week ahead can be found on our website if you're going to see mcmarkets.com and under news and analysis you'll find the bulk of the updates that we do get posted to that section um take a look at the week ahead um i know i mentioned china at the top of this uh of this video so you have the kaishin survey of chinese services um we released the early hours of tuesday morning and tuesday we also have the interest rate decision from the reserve bank of australia also on tuesday we have a third quarter figures from ashted a london listed company but they derive the majority of their earnings in the us i mentioned about manufacturing figures that were proved from the eurozone well we have all the major european eurozone and uk service pmi numbers coming out on tuesday morning looking on the corporate front we have updates from two large us retailers on tuesday quarterly figures uh colds and also target corporation on wednesday we have full year figures from just east on wednesday we also have the back of canada interest rate decision on thursday we have the european central bank interest rate decision and press conference that's our good week our good week gonna be the second most important update of the week as i mentioned we've had recently we've had disappointing manufacturing numbers in the eurozone this week tomorrow we're going to see the services figures and thursday we're going to have the european central bank interest rate interest rate decision and press conference and recently traders have been effectively banking on poor figures out of the eurozone makes it more likely that we're going to have some form of uh loosening of biology policy be it a targeted equities as what's been uh must be talked about recently to keep coming up for that on thursday and finally on friday uh it is non farm perils which is which is deemed to be the most important update of the month please keep an eye out for the earnings component of it uh on the earning on the earnings of the earnings component on a month on month basis earnings are tip to increase by 0.3 percent where and on a year year basis their tip to increase by 3.3 percent and essentially the more money americans earn the more likely the article will spend money and keep the economy taking along speaking of non farm perils we do have we're we're holding a live webinar here at 1315 gmt uh feel free to sign up for that on our website um on our cmcmarkets.com feel under the learn section and they follow by the webinars and events you'll find that and last but not least if you've any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos we've made here at cmc markets please feel free to leave a review on good reviews thank you very much