 Welcome to Ticna, a weekly market outlook for weak amounts in the 29th of March with me, Patrick Manley. On the agenda next week there are a few drivers which on paper look to be dollar positive. The first is the US macro data where the March employment numbers, ADP on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Friday should be strong. I'm looking for NFP to rise to around 750k versus a market consensus of 600k. The unemployment rate is also expected to dip to 5.9 to 6% from last month's 6.2%. None of this should really sway the Fed, however, which still awaits 10 million people to rediscover work and has gone out of its way to undermine the unemployment rate as a catch-all figure for those unemployed. The second key issue will be Joe Biden's launch of his $3 trillion infrastructure plan. I think this will be a tougher sell than the 1.9 trillion stimulus. It will also be interesting to see how the market reacts to any suggestions of tax hikes for corporates in the wealthy and perhaps capital gains tax hikes too. I'm still looking at the technical patterns with respect to the dollar. We can see that going back to the high printed march last year, the post pandemic high, we've got a broader impulsive decline that we're looking for a fourth wave high print. We've had that third wave complete into the 89-80 low. We're now in a complex corrective pattern, but what I'm looking for is the dollar to continue to find support around this 92 area and to actually trade up now into the yearly pivot for the dollar, which comes in at 9408. We also have the 38.2% retracement of the prior decline, which will be an ideal location for this wave 4 high to complete. So looking for bullish patterns to develop at the 92 level to ultimately trade up to test the pivot 94-12. From there we'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions playing for the wave 5 target, which should see us down around 87.50 later on. In Europe the clocks have actually gone forward today and on Friday the 2nd of April, that's the start of the Easter holidays for much of Europe, it's been a long quarter of many will be looking to get to next Friday in one piece, I imagine. Much focus will remain on the virus situation in Europe and whether lockdowns can slow rise in case numbers and also whether the slow pace of vaccinations can finally reach exit speed. The date calendar for the weekend should see a mile pick up in the pace of Eurozone CPI in March, although nothing to bother the ECB. We should also see more readings of consumer and business confidence across the region. These have held up well so far, although they have been largely taken before the fresh lockdowns and also before Europe's most recent challenge, the Suez canal blockage, which could start to weigh on Europe's industrial sector should it not be resolved quickly. Quarter end will also see focus on portfolio rebalancing clothes, the first quarter European outperformance of the US both in terms of equity and bond markets could actually trigger some month then selling in the euro around the 30th and 31st of March, so watch for potential volatility around the London fix that fall 30 time when we could see some some volatility from a technical perspective. I'm looking for the Euro now to test its yearly pivot here at the 11720 area who also got the trend line coming in from the March lows. From here I think we could see some corrective action and I'd look for a move a three wave pattern to ideally get a test back up into the 120 zone, but from there I think we're going to need to take another leg lower to ultimately test this 116 as the major support and from there we should have a way for low in place in terms of this broader pattern and then I'll be looking for prices to extend higher again. The data flow in the UK was mixed last week, January unemployment dropped more than expected with inflation while inflation inched lower to 0.4% in February against market consensus. On the inflation side I think the drop was probably a temporary blip in March to the 2% level later this year. Overall with UK and EU tensions over vaccine supplies easing and vaccinations in the UK keeping in good pace markets continue to see the UK government's timeline to reopen the economy as realistic and therefore sterling is retaining some better resilience than other G10 currencies against its dollar counterparts. We can expect that same resilience to play out until next week where the calendar in the UK is quite light. On the back of England side there are two schedule speakers Saunders and Toronto both up next week although any material deviation from the bank's recent rhetoric appears unlikely at this stage. Concerns about a worsening virus situation the slower vaccination progress in the eurozone may widen the UK-EU gap in terms of recovery expectations adding additional support to sterling. From a technical perspective I'm looking for sterling now to test up into the 139 level from below watching for bearish reversal patterns there to set short positions targeting the equality objective versus the swing high here at 1407 at 135.47 from there then we could see a way for low in place for sterling and we could see additional strength develop and also we take out that 140 resistance on route to testing on taking out the prior cycle high there at 142.43. .em continues to surprise to the upside just coming shy of the 110 level on Friday without the assistance notably of higher bond yields. Japanese purchases of foreign bonds are picked up in March although we would have assumed that most of these purchases would have been FX hedged the week ahead in Japan sees February retail sales and industrial production plus the first quarter tank and business survey the weaker yen must be providing some windfall gains to Japanese exporters and a further improvement in the tank and should not be a surprise. From a technical perspective I'm now looking for the dollar yen to test offers and stops above 110 and from here I think this would be a natural area for profit taking to develop and for us to actually put in a corrected move certainly getting a move back to retest 108.50 of support and potentially down to 107.50. Lastly the Aussie moved back above the 76 handle on Friday but it was down 1.5% of the week following a combination of choppy risk sentiment and ranking yields on the latter the Reserve Bank of Australia has surely welcomed the 10 basis point fall in Australia 10 year yields witness last week which has brought the differential with the 10 year treasuries below four basis points the lowest since early February and a material drop from the 50 basis points peak seen in late February. This is keeping the need for more RBA interventions in the bond market low for the moment but don't exclude more will be needed in the coming weeks if global yields start to move up again. The date calendar next week is very light in Australia with only figures from February worth highlighting train figures really from February are the highlights of the week focus should remain on the oil market and it spill over on other commodities iron ore actually enjoyed a corrective rally last week helped by better activity outlook for China. Other threads to follow with respect to the Aussie although the market impacts arguably can be subdued is the EU Australia dispute over vaccine supplies to Papua New Guinea and the floods in Sydney and New South Wales that may slow vaccination efforts that said I would expect external factors to remain key driver for Aussie next week but whilst we can hold this 7570 as support I'm now looking for the Aussie to test 7755 as resistance and from there I've been looking for the final leg of this corrective move to play out to get a test of the 7450 zone which is the equality objective versus 7845 high which bullish reversal patterns there to set loan positions and set up then for a way five extension higher in terms of the Aussie and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 29th of March be sure to join me on Thursday for my weekly live trade and market analysis sessions and I wish you all the best about this week thanks very much