 It's no longer news that on October 3, 2023, the military government of Niger declared that, until further notice, Niger will no longer export liquefied petroleum gas to Nigeria and other countries. Immediately after the news hit social media, people began to speculate that this decision made by Niger was to punish Nigeria. Why? Well, based on the speculations, the military junta of Niger decided to ban the export of gas to Nigeria because the president of Nigeria, President Bola Tiniubu, who is also the current head of ECOWAS, was responsible for spearheading the effort to force the military junta to restore the deposed president of Niger, Mohammed Bozum. And, as part of his efforts to reinstate the deposed president, President Tiniubu threatened to intervene militarily in Niger and also cut off electricity to the country. But then the military government put up a strong resistance against ECOWAS economic sanctions and the threat of military invasion, and today they are fully in control of Niger, pending when they will transition to democratic rule. Thinking about these speculations, it actually makes a lot of sense, but is that the only reason why the government of Niger decided to ban the exports of gas to Nigeria. Let's take a look at some facts. LPG, commonly known as cooking gas, is a combustible mixture of hydrocarbon gases used as a fuel in cooking, heating, and other applications. Nigeria, the giant of Africa and Africa's largest oil exporter, is also the largest consumer of LPG in Africa with an estimated demand of 1.8 million metric tons per year. Unfortunately, despite the huge deposit of gas in the country, Nigeria has to rely on other African countries, including Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, and especially Niger, which has abundant natural gas. According to a report in 2022, Nigeria had to import over 55% of LPG to meet the growing demand for gas in the country. The reasons for this situation in Nigeria have been identified as inadequate infrastructure and, by extension, low domestic production. So, over the years, both Niger and Nigeria have had a trade understanding whereby Nigeria exports its excess gas to Nigeria, which has a high demand for it. The two countries even signed a memorandum of understanding for the importation of petroleum products just last year, in 2022. The agreement was formalized in the presence of Nigeria's former Minister of State for Petroleum, Timerpa Silver, and Fomacoigado, who represented the Niger Republic. This is a major step forward. The Niger Republic has some excess products that need to be evacuated. Nigeria has a market for these products. Therefore, this is going to be a win-win relationship for both countries, Silver had said. My hope is that this is going to be the beginning of deepening trade relations between the Niger Republic and Nigeria, he added. But now, the deepening trade relations that Nigeria's former Minister of State for Petroleum hoped for seem to have ended with the recent ban on the exportation of LPG to Nigeria. But if you take a closer look at the statement made by the military government of Nigeria, you will observe that it's not just about retaliating against Nigeria. According to the statement, gas produced locally should be used to supply the domestic market only, and where there is a surplus, a special authorization can be sought to export it. The Minister of Energy and Petroleum in Niger, Abdulay Issa, further explained that the ban on LPG exports to Nigeria is part of a strategic plan to boost Niger's domestic gas sector and promote industrialization. He stated that Nigeria has been exporting subsidized LPG to Nigeria, which has been detrimental to the Nigerian economy and the environment. He also stated that Niger plans to use its natural gas resources to generate energy, produce fertilizers, and help other sectors. This certainly makes a lot of sense because a country cannot export a product when it has not been able to meet local demands. To further prove that the decision by Nigeria was not just for revenge, a few weeks before the military government decided to ban the exports of gas, service stations acting as distributors and wholesalers of gas in Nigeria had seen their deliveries plunge. These distributors and wholesalers could only take delivery of one tanker a week instead of the normal three. This means that Niger had been living through a liquefied petroleum gas shortage even before the ban. Economist Mustafa Khadi also confirmed this fact when he explained that Niger produces around six tankers of butane gas a day. Generally, this production is distributed through the operators. We are talking about half of this production, which is sold by our partners to external operators or frequently sold to national operators, which then export gas to Nigeria to name just one country. Since the government has banned the export, our concern is how to meet demand, which is very high nowadays. In addition, according to a report by the petroleum minister, LPG exports peaked in 2013 and 2014 before becoming almost nil in 2019 and 2020 with increasing domestic demand. So, you can see that it's not just about retaliating against Nigeria, in fact, that might be the least reason for the decision. The major reason is that Niger was facing a gas shortage problem. Like Abdul Wahab Issaqa, a gas vendor in Niger said the government is right. It is not normal to enable the export of a product while locals need it and we do have gas. Now, what has been the response from Nigeria? The Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum Resources expressed disappointment and concern over the decision made by Niger, stating that it will have a severe impact on the Nigerian economy and the well-being of millions of Nigerians who rely on LPG for their daily needs. And indeed, this decision has truly affected the Nigerian economy as the price of gas has skyrocketed from a previous 750 naira to 1,000 naira per kg. The minister further stated that Nigeria has been a trusted partner and key investor in the Nigerian gas sector and that the ban will harm the two nations' existing collaboration and integration. He urged the military government of Niger to reconsider its decision and engage in talks with Nigeria in order to reach a mutually beneficial solution. It remains to be seen whether the two countries will be able to find a solution that will benefit both of them, but one certain thing is that Niger's decision to ban the exports of gas to Nigeria will have significant implications for both countries as well as for the regional and international energy landscape. For example, the ban on LPG exports to Nigeria has cast out on the future of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, TSGP, which plans to transport natural gas from Nigeria to Europe via Niger and Algeria. The project, which has been in the works for nearly a decade, is projected to promote the participating countries' economic development and energy security while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the initiative has encountered various difficulties, including financial, security and regulatory constraints. Likely, the decision by Nigeria to limit LPG exports to Nigeria may also affect the TSGP project's prospects. For now, we can only watch to see how it all plays out. 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