 Okay, very good morning. It is Tuesday 14th of January. Hope you're you're doing well Got Sam back. So he's gonna have a look at some technical levels after I give a bit of an overall Macro update of what's going on for me to talk about of course is really focus on the US China Confirmation of signing the deal which is still set for tomorrow and all things looking good for the moment Other than that having a look at the US European trade talks, which are also ongoing over the next couple of days And then some other things just to be aware from a calendar perspective So that's kind of what I'm going to talk about but First things first quick look at the charts and an overall feel for sentiment and actually index dot futures a little lower This morning. I mean the Dow did finish up last night about 83 points But since then we've kind of just drifted back south in the futures S&P just finding a little bit of near-term support at its pivot level in the center right chart the DAX having Blip lower through the cash opens at a normal pick up in the volume through the futures And we're just having a look down at the S1 which was the lower bound of yesterday's price activity So worth keeping an eye there. I think really too much to speak of fundamentally there But the the general narrative this morning is a little bit of risk off in the equity market Which is quite unusual because overall the the kind of vibe Coming out of the US China situation is fairly positive But perhaps this is a little bit of that, you know kind of by the rumors sell the fact It's looking good at the moment that the deal phase one at least will get executed at this point But maybe a little bit coming off the table and that consequently just seeing the US 10 year just Claw back some overnight initial losses seen at the beginning of the age of pack sessions. We're back to pivot flat essentially Having moved up three or four ticks from the low scene overnight Pretty similar price action really in gold. I mean we finished it really a firm footing last night on Wall Street So ever since that point we've had a bit of reversal of those initial moves and gold Which Sam will look at in more detail after breaking through the early part of the Asia Pacific session You'll see on the daily pivots We broke a test that came pretty close proximity to the low that was seen back on what last Thursday Absolute extension of the run lower than the general lack of liquidity in the overnight session And then the in the daily pivots the s1 and To just working out as a nice range playing. We're just providing a bit of a Support point now having got back above that s1 at the moment in the futures Interestingly from a from a top level That with the macro themes at play It's almost like Iran Never happened in respect to not only oil prices way lower than we were even before the initial Flaring of that issue in the Middle East But this is what I was trying to convey at the time with the kind of mantra of Keep calm and carry on is that look if you take yourself out of the intraday initial knee jerk almost emotive reaction that in actuality the The probability of escalation is fairly limited And as we we did know at the time these these Washington high-level trade talks were happening and almost Right on cue the spotlight has gone from Iran back on to China. It's not that Iran has gone away It's just no one's talking about it anymore And that's an important thing I think for any intraday trader is that you've it's almost not so much the news It's that the human behavior and the fact that we tend to be very blinkered in what we're looking at from subject matter And that's an important thing to comprehend when you're looking at the the short-term Fundamental drivers in markets that are dictating sentiment and what asset class is really acting as the trigger point or the domino That leads then other correlations and these are the ways and means that hopefully from watching these briefings You're getting a sense of how we kind of put things together Otherwise the other thing before I get into the headlines to mention is the pound Still looking a little heavy down 34 at the moment. So it is underperforming One thing that I did see in the FT this morning Economists are warning the next Bank of England governor So Andrew Bailey and the UK Chancellor have to take early measures to ensure the Bank of England has tools for the next recession this of course then adds to that growing chorus of dovishness coming out of the likes of Flagate at the weekend in the financial times But Carnit and railroad last week and then Haskell and Saunders who have been the dissenters with the weak economic data Contraction of point three percent in GDP in November last year a weak industrial manufacturing Production this all coming. We've got CPI A bit later on in the week got retail sales at the end of the week There's a lot coming for the UK the economic data hasn't broken a trend generally speaking the economy is deteriorating People are bringing forward their Potential for a rate cut from the Bank of England in the near term Remember this was way out Into the future but given these two factors of forward guidance almost from the Bank in addition to the quality of the the weakness of economic situation in the UK the pound does Remain, I'd say quite biased to the downside for the moment Trigger points of course might come That need to be overlaid then with any key technical levels of interest on the downside For an extension of this trend lower Around the data points now today. There isn't really any major UK data points is tomorrow As I said, I think that's when the CPI is coming out will be quite keen in the retail sales number later on In the week, but we're just retesting that lower bound of the price activity yesterday So worth keeping an eye here where we're trading at the moment I had here previously marked up you can see there was that area of Consolidation at the high end of the range that we were trading on 23rd 24th Worth just keeping an eye on any further break beyond that point. I've already got marks here the lower Of the price on the candlesticks the scene on 24th on the Daily session it'll be 1 28 58 and then the prevailing low down on the 23rd, which would be today's s2 at 29 40 But perhaps a bit of a lack of any Fundamental cue on the docket for the UK so any Continuation would be more trend and then technical breaches might exacerbate some further movement if that was to be the case Let's get quickly update on the headlines then it shouldn't take me too long few things though to be aware of and I would say on the balance my expectation now of the Conclusion because as I was intimidating there was potential of What if the trade deal doesn't get signed this week, but The headlines are about to go through kind of alleviates perhaps some of that uncertainty I wouldn't discount that probability of it all coming undone, but I'd say it's now particularly small as a risk that being because from The US's points of view last night the trump administration lifted its designation of china as a currency cheat Saying that the nation has made quote enforceable commitments not to devalue the yuan This is quite symbolic really if you remember the US have been quite Forceful in their rhetoric that China is a currency manipulator They put them on this kind of periodic report that the Treasury releases where it specifically outlines names of which are on the watch list Of which China was one, but they've removed them just before a deal is going to get signed So overall that's a net positive if you like for the idea that this could go through Otherwise what are the Chinese doing well The Chinese have pledged to buy nearly an additional 80 billion dollars in manufactured goods from the US over the next two years Plus over 50 billion more in energy supplies Beijing would also boost purchases of US services by around 35 billion over the same two-year period according to sources and Reuters And you will remember that phase one agreement calls for Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods to increase By some 32 billion over two years or roughly 16 billion a year way bigger than what they are previously purchasing so overall You know, I hate to say it without asking for Sam to toss me the the MAGA cap, but I mean there's some pretty punchy numbers that trumps managed to Deliver in regard to Up-front commitments from China purchasing a variety of different goods and certainly that does help in Areas of which were feeling a bit of a strain from the ongoing escalation particularly in the farm belt in America. So In this sense, yes, it's good as I said though the bigger medium-term risk is whether China actually commit and follow through and we see these types of kind of pledges materializing in practice and The money hitting the bank account as far as USA PLC is concerned is yet to be seen But for the moment the de-escalation almost is China are making an olive branch We're committing to buying much more in a variety of different ways of US goods But then equally so the US downplaying its rhetoric saying look actually China is no longer The kind of top level in terms of being a currency manipulator They're now acting in a more appropriate way and making enforceable commitments not to devalue their currency So these are all positive signs for tomorrow It being signed off by the Chinese vice-premier and the authorities in Washington One thing we've also had overnight is some Chinese trade data Chinese exports year-on-year 7.6 percent that's more than double Forecasts of 3.2 percent Chinese import 16.3 above the expected 9.6 percent Something interesting to be aware of here. I mean as you can see from this chart, that's quite a healthy Situation in regards to a rebound slightly in the export number, which is a positive further stabilization in China Certainly helps things overall But the European Union actually continues to be China's largest trading partner China obviously set to announce its GDP numbers on Friday, so it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out the stats bureau Said at the weekend that the country still on target to reach its economic growth quota kind of a six to six and a half percent So we're interested to see whether or not materializes China Of course have been doing what they can Ahead of the China New Year don't forget Chinese New Year kicks off on the 25th of January So we often get this kind of front-loading if you like of activity given that the whole country goes on lockdown for a prolonged period of time China have been trimming their key interest rate this month looking to Keep ample amount of domestic liquidity in order to circumvent then the disruption that New Year always has This is quite a seasonal thing So if you do start hearing of these big liquidity injections on behalf of the Chinese central bank That's not unusual as we go into that Lunar New Year holiday So yeah, I mean otherwise trade-wise where is Trump? What is his movements? These are Eastern times So this is obviously subbing out what five hours if it's New York six Chicago From London, but you can see here Trump really just going about his business. There's nothing really direct where he's got specific Interest with the trade stuff. That's kind of left to his advisement team But the other thing that is happening, of course at the moment is this you might not have recognized this chap But he's a chap that you should start to get familiar with because he could be definitely important for the way of which European assets and might react and this is because Obviously now we're seeing some kind of short-term resolution between the US and China This is the chap who Negotiates on behalf of Europe on Trade negotiations with the US and his name is Phil Hogan He's the European Union's new trade chief and he's going to be in Washington for the next three days Now this chap's got his work cut out a little bit because if you remember the last flash point was that the US Said they wanted to apply duties of about 2.4 billion dollars worth on French goods Over disgruntlement on the digital Services tax on some of the big tech names that Europe were imparting on the likes of kind of Amazon Google and so on so You know beyond China one thing just to be aware of is how does that talk go and that's ongoing seemingly they all want to do this at once Europe talking to the US And also China are looking to finalize and translate and sign the deal with the US as well So just to keep an eye on other quick things that I thought I'd mention I Do talk to a lot of our junior traders because we are macro traders, so we're not looking at Individual trading of single stocks. We're looking at overall industry movement And one thing to be aware of in that regard is how to break through the noise and And monitor what news is relevant for the index that you're trading well for the S&P 500 In that fashion It's got a little bit even more simplistic because the top five companies now and the S&P 500 account for nearly 20% Of the entire S&P 500 so remember there are what? 505 actually listed entities on there Given some of the dual listings that appear, but the overall the top 500 companies almost One fifth is just the top five names those that you would be familiar with Microsoft your Amazon's your Facebook's and so on One thing I guess from a macro point of view Small cap underperformance as it says here is a bit of a concern You know in a healthy economic sense to keep it Simplistic you would want smaller companies feeling like they're performing well They're very positive about the future the fact that they're getting dwarfed at the moment Could be a bit of a sign of a times where people are rotating more into some of these bigger more safer names out of them They're more sensitive to the economy domestically the smaller names Which aren't performing so well at this point Okay, I mean that is pretty much it from me so to finish off from a calendar perspective What have we got US CPI is the kind of dish of the day that's coming out 130 that's the major thing on the block and then you've got Keeping an ear out for anything more in regard to the US China situation in the afternoon then other than that not too much Weekly API infantry is not until aftermarket setting the scene then for the DOEs in Wednesday sessions speaker wise ECB's merch speaking shortly Feds Williams who is a voter Is going to be speaking at 2 p.m. London time this afternoon 8 a.m. In Chicago and then Feds, Georgia at 6 p.m London time, but a non-voter these days Okay, just before I hand you over Sam had witnessed the Equity index is just coming under a little bit of further pressure The DAX has broken technically that point which gives it a nice little platform for the short on that s One As I said, there's not really been anything Fundamental of key significance But I guess the one thing I'd want to say and and just to finish is if you just stick the S&P on A 90 minute, you know take yourself out of this smaller time frames. Let's not forget where we are at the moment I mean we are literally at all-time highs and so You know a little bit coming off the top I don't think is all that surprising and as I said if we did get a bit of by the rumor Sell the fact type price activity In the lights of the S&P. I don't think that that's a meaningful sign to worry We do of course have and final thing on the calendar the big banks kickoff earning season You'll get JP Morgan Wells Fargo and city I'll have more details on those a bit earlier a bit later when we get close to the release but Earning season not really looking to be particularly important this time around. I don't think it's going to be spectacular But I don't think it's going to be a disappointment either So I don't think it's going to really change the global order of things from a macro perspective But really there's an area there for me and I'd be interested to see what Sam has to say But I'd say that 60 to 68 in the S&P futures really is quite a decent area support And and now I think we kind of play this kind of range between these levels here Around 3300 that being the lower bound and an area of consolidation here I could well be warranted at this point. So I'm not going to look to stress too much about trying to Curve fit a narrative behind this sell-off this morning. I just think take yourself out a little bit Of that short-term mindset and look at the broader picture We are pretty mid-range of that range that's been in play the last couple of sessions All right, thank you over to Sam and I wish you good day here. Thanks so much guys Yeah, hi guys Hi guys, good morning start there again. Good to be on. I hope we all had a good weekend Yeah, the Dax just just picking up a touch. So we'll start off with the equities You can see Dax and your stocks has come under a bit of pressure here bit of support has gone However, if you are literally looking for a short now I would just hold off because we are about to come to quite a key level of support on the Dax that we had back on Thursday Late Thursday and of course the first test of that you would at least expect some kind of support to come through On that so a bit of horizontal support there Euro stocks just also pushing through and at a similar point where you have some of the the highs that we had on the 8th And then that sort of turn to a low there as well. So equities. Yes coming under a bit of pressure the S&P I've got here if you are still short and looking perhaps for a Short-term bottom worth having on the the trend line from the 10th It's Friday to Monday and that would come in on the futures anyway in a in a couple of points And I probably would have that marked up. However, is this, you know, the top of the the market for a week You wouldn't You know be too comfortable saying that now of course there could be many twists and turns ahead of that and mentioned 3260 the low that we had on the 10th before that final push up towards 3300 In the spot in the spoo sorry, and that is the high of the third of Jan as well It's a key level one to have marked up and you would say Is if we were to get anywhere near there today, which would be around 15 points to the downside It's not a bad place to perhaps to find a bit of a bottom But that's a newer stocks has come into an area of support The S&P in this case that trend line worth having on the Dow Jones is right on A key level as well the load that we had on the 10th and the low of the morning of the 9th Which is the high that we had on the 6th. So Equities just come into that support level now. Can we get a follow through then fine? We might get another leg down, but this is quite a key level speaking of key levels I'm just gonna move over to the pound. It's got a and this is on the 480 looks nice on the spot I put it on my Twitter to have a look at but you can just see starting on the the beginning of November It's gonna bring in this trend line, which we tested Yesterday and then little false break this morning, but you know, this is all about where we close of course And you can see here nicely respected going up through November into December and then January as well now But a break below there could you know lead to a further move down Be looking at that low that we had back on the 23rd of December and then back towards November levels Below 129 to 128 in a bit So keep an eye on that trend line whether it's to hold or not today will be pretty key And here this is just on the 480 chart. So keep a watch on that As well going into more intraday having a look at the 60 you can see that trend line just battling away with yesterday's lows the S1 so First test a bit rejected on all time frames So whether we can get that close below or not will be pretty significant above where we're training if we are to get a Retracement where would you feel more comfortable that maybe we can push higher well the low that we had on The the ninth just that area X up there. We broke through yesterday 130 37 Certainly one to keep a watch on we are getting squeezed from both directions I've got this on the 60 minute, but really it goes back onto that 480 as well You can see from those highs really price from both directions just getting squeezed in so Again, if we are later on to start to grind higher could well be at the top of this trend line Is the low from the night and those highs from overnight as well Which would be a really key resistance point having a look over at the euro We obviously broke that trend line last week and we are just recovering a touch on That you can see it's starting to get choppy on the retests of those those levels So just keep an eye just above where we're trading I think if we were to get and I just gonna draw this line up and just mark it for the reasons why the load that turned into The afternoon high on the 8th. We almost reached it. Yes there. It's the days are one I think if we can get back above there, you'd feel slightly more comfortable In some it may be the the next leg down in this market is is away away You can see yesterday. We came to test this trend line. It was very choppy however into late trade But we are the other side of that now So perhaps if you're looking for the euro and you're not in a trade now You've almost got this new mini range to be aware of those highs They are one key level if we can get back above there Then I think the euro could push higher But if we are to to break below the pivot the lows from yesterday as well below 111 72 and I would expect a bit of a quicker move down to yesterday's lows and the S1 So mini range there in play to keep an eye on there Just having a look now at gold So the It's just starting to push to the upside or it has been doing so while equities have been coming down so a bit of Reverse in all negative correlation coming through as money going into those safe havens I would just say though however if stocks are to bounce on these very important Support levels it could be that we then at the same time find resistance on what was Friday and yesterday Mornings lows you can see the importance of that if we are to To come back and test it you'd expect it a decent resistance level on there Of course from the spikes that we had back on the third we On the third yeah, the fifth and the seventh I should say we have started to drift lower And when we have this from those highs it's worth getting on those trend lines and quite where respected Yesterday to get that third test and we are now testing it right did what this moment So can we get maybe an hourly close above yesterday's lows this trend line and gold can continue to push higher And maybe we have found a bit of a flaw Around here if not and we do look to push low I would say the next key support point below Yesterday's low on the future certainly is around 1533 Was a high back on the second of Jan before we broke through and and this would be the first real Retest of that so keeping a watch on there, but certainly gold at the moment is is near a key level And I'd say 1547 and 1533 Resemble, you know break above we're happy to get in a bit of a bit of a long Maybe through the back end of the week and below there will go could come under a bit more pressure So keep a watch on that oil. I mean what a rascal of a market if you got long September off that spike big loss if you've got long on the evening of the seventh Another big loss and I mean must be down over 10% from that high here on the future Yeah nearly 12% and it's still drifting lower here keep a watch of course just below where we're trading You've got the low that we had back on the 6th of December around 57 62 and an area Which is pretty important You would have to say just looking previously into November's December's there's a lot of price action around that area So keep a level marked up there to see what will happen today's arm s1 also comes in the mix on that However, not the biggest move this morning only down 21 cent on the futures above where we're trading pivot Yesterday evening's highs got a keeper a watch on that and above there the original low at 58 60 from yesterday's Asian Session trade but has been drifting lower. I think you know how much more is there in this market? Well, we'll have to wait and see but I wouldn't really be too comfortable and getting long in less And this isn't necessarily the best trend channel to the downside but to the upside here You can see over the last few training sessions going back to the eighth unless we get above there You know, I'm not not looking for for any longs on that to have a quick look over stocks Just to see how they responded to some of these levels the Dow the Dow Just finding a bit of support around that point the Dax Hit it to the tick and has had a 20 point and more bounce. So yeah, so Definitely worthwhile just holding off your stocks perhaps the one that's a spite through that level But the Dax keeper a watch on that especially we come back to yesterday's low It's also today's s1, you know be an area where if you are looking to get short could be an attractive point But with this week playing more twists and turns to come I am sure eyes and is open going forward. Hope everyone has a good training date You know, we'll be in the chat any comments obviously on YouTube Please do get those in as well, but I hope you will have a good trading session and catch you all later on