 Welcome to Tick-Mail Weekly Market Outlook for Week Menacing the 21st of September with me Patrick Rungley. After a brief short squeeze on the back of the FRMC meeting, the dollar looks as though it's settling back into a kind of benign decline that also allows risk assets to prosper. Fresh on the heels of its latest policy decisions and communications, Fed is rolling out a wave of officials to provide further colour that may reveal more information on the range of opinions in support of the most recent statement. Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will deliver their required quarterly testimony on the CARES Act before the House Financial Services panel on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Chair Powell will also speak for the House Select Committee on the COVID-19 virus. Governor Brainard will weigh in on Monday with Governor Qualls appearing on Wednesday. Several regional presidents will speak including Williams, Evans, Barkin, Mester, Rosengren, Dully and Bullard. The data counter itself is quite light but we will get August existing home sales and they're expected to be strong following record low mortgage rates. From a technical perspective, the dollar index really hasn't gone anywhere. We're still tracking a potential inverse head and shoulder scenario here and I'm looking for ultimately a test of this. 94, the descending trend line resistance to as the premium opportunity to re-engage the dollar on the short side. Only really a close below 92.30 would concern the corrective thesis suggesting retest of the prior rise of 91.75 with the potential to test the descending projected channel support down to 90.30. Key focus for the week ahead in terms of the Eurozone will be an update on the September confidence readings through the flash PMIs and the German EFO. The August data has softened from the sharp early summer recovery and the September data will provide insights on whether confidence continued to erode, especially in the services sector. These data released on Wednesday and Thursday. If the Euro can survive these then the market probably moves on to the EU summit on the 24th, 25th and September. Topics on the agenda include the EU's response to tension in the east of Mediterranean, excuse me, and also to Russia. There are also suggestions that more detailed support for the EU capital market union will be presented. Positive for the Euro if it raises the prospect of a deeper pool of European securities to rival the dollar. From a technical perspective, Euro dollar continues to hold this 117 support area. I highlighted in last week's live analysis session the $120 billion worth of options that are looking to contain the Euro between 117 and 120. As we hold 117 range support, we look for a test up through the prior cycle highs above 120 to test now ascending projected trend line resistance just ahead of 121. From there we could see a more pronounced correction back into the 116 support area before loans look to re-engage. However, if you do take out range support at 117 then look for that 116 test as the pivotal area in terms of re-engaging the Euro on the long side. Sterling price action will continue to be dominated by the UK-EU trade negotiation news flow. Next round of talks taking place this week. Despite some softening in the prior harsh rhetoric, PM Johnson agreed to give Parliament a veto over some measures of the internal market bill while the European Council President Vonda Lyon said she was convinced to deal as possible. Continuity downside risks to Sterling as the odds of a no-deal Brexit are increasing around 50% now, but not enough risk premiums priced into Sterling only around 1.5% based on financial fair value modelling versus the 5% risk premium priced in in late. This point to further Sterling downside on the data front we get September UK PMI Wednesday giving the Brexit risk and the increased probability of the BOE negative rates following the confirmation that the BOE discussed the effectiveness of negative interest rates during the September rate setting meeting. UK PMI should have a limited impact on Sterling. The Prime Driver of Sterling remains the outlook for the UK-EU trade negotiations. With respect to Sterling, we broke the ascending trend line support that we were tracking at around 1.2850. We popped back up, but Friday we got a bearish reversal pattern and we traded just below that ascending trend line support. Similarities in terms of the type of price action we saw back in June here with the decline, small corrective move up and then that final low made into the back end of June 29th of June. So I think we can see a similar pattern here, roll over, test this 127 area support now, prior resistance to active support. We also have the monthly S3 coming in there. So watch that 127 area if we do roll over here in Sterling. I think that could be an area where we can see a more pronounced correction developed. Dolly Yen has typically not spent much time below 105 over the past five years, but pressure is certainly building for a move lower over the coming months. Things like negative real US yields, perhaps soft bank repatriation of its divestment of arm proceeds and potentially even the Dolly Yen being seen as a key vehicle to hedge US election risks. One could also make the the case that the community of the continuity story of Abinomics and the BoJ upgrading domestic growth forecast is positive too. Local calendar is very light this week, just the release of the BoJ July minutes. So from a technical perspective, as we hold this double bottom here now at 104-20, but from pop higher back into this prior support at the 105-30 and 105-50, this is the area where I'd be looking at re-engaging the Dolly Yen on the short side, looking for bearish reversal patterns, ultimately targeting a move down to take a look at 103 as the next downside objective. Finally, in Australia, the Aussie has really continued to hover around this this seven to three level all of last week where employment data proved way less pessimistic than expected, both by surveys economists and by the RBA government projections. Still, the lockdown measures in Victoria are likely keeping investors cautious about the Aussie as a downturn in economic data down the road could be a trigger for more RBA easing, possibly with the additional aim of weakening the Aussie dollar. Stabilising risk sentiment this week and the inability of the dollar to stay at any sustainable significant rebound could see the Aussie find support earlier in the week. And the calendar side of things, retail sales for August will be the key release to watch, while PMI should have a limited market impact. Also, keep an eye on the RBA debels speech on Tuesday and potential spillover from any surprising move by the PBOC, which doesn't really seem likely at this stage. So from a technical perspective, and I can say Aussie dollar holding this 72.50 as it does still see the potential for a test of 75. We have significant momentum divergence to address by then I've been watching the bearish reversal patterns from that 75 area to set up a test back down into the sport at the 70 handle. Now, if we do early in the week roll over here and take out that 72.30, 72.20 support area, then we could see that that 70 test come come sooner. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 21st of September. Be sure to join me on Thursday for live market analysis session. I'll be updating all the charts and trading opportunities. Thanks very much for your time and have a great week.