 All right, very good morning to you. Hope you've had a fantastic weekend and just as a reminder obviously clocks change now in the UK So back to the normal time differential between London and the States So five hours New York six hours Chicago and a holiday short and week of course because we've got Easter Good Friday. So the major global markets will be closed on Friday But nonetheless non-farm payrolls is still coming out and obviously with payrolls coming out means we get the Kind of front-running of employment data coming out the States from ADP ISM jobless, so on and so forth. So quite a condensed consolidated week in some respect Otherwise if you're watching this on YouTube because this Monday briefing goes out to everyone at the point I'm filming just going into 7 a.m. This morning in London then hit the subscribe button I really appreciate it if we can help grow the community online, but otherwise getting straight into it and Usually what I do on a Monday is I don't dwell too much on the charts other than just give you a flavor about what the market open Looks like this morning from a sentiment perspective. I'll let the guys on Amphile live go into more detail on the charts But a little bit negative in the overall equity index futures the Dow Nasdaq S&P seen slightly lower the Nasdaq future down about 130 S&P 29 European index futures that scene broadly flat at the moment So a little bit of a pullback after we had that pop in prices to the upside at the close on Wall Street And as you momentarily saw me flash up on the screen, there's a particular hedge fund that is causing some Headline traction this morning and having led to a large volume of block sales on Friday session And that is reverberating into other banks now essentially a hedge fund default situation and liquidation of positions that could well become quite a focal point as we go into the US session given the nature of Potentially a lot of single stock exposure in the US but otherwise the other thing that's moving this morning is WTI crude we're down about a dollar thirty one I'm still respecting a relative range here down at the bottom chart as you can see it's been fairly seesaw In a price range of around 5725 in the futures to 61.36 So a perfect kind of double top there to the to the cent From the high on the 24th to the high that was seen On Friday session, so they're backing off a bit We have had an update on the Suez where basically now that container vessel There's been blocking the canal has been partially freed And so yeah, perhaps a little bit of downside just being seen on the back of that Otherwise slightly softer equity space T-notes then up a touch up around four and a half ticks gold relatively quiet the overnight session down five dollars and in the currency markets the Greenback a little stronger albeit just very moderate to minor gains of around point one five percent So the major pairs down in euros dollar and cable about 15 to 20 pips each respectively But let's get into it. Let's talk about a couple of things from a news perspective and Yeah traders brace after file sale of stocks linked to a hedge fund based out of a fund manager from South Korea and What basically was was happening was there was a couple of us stocks namely Viacom CVS and Discovery, they both closed down by more than 20% on Friday, but they were seeing some substantial selling pressure throughout last week I mean didn't really spill over into the broader market, but substantial losses in those stocks and a block sale essentially just meaning that particularly large order going through from an Institutional basis as they look to manage client positions and what was happening here was essentially the fund Which had large exposures to these companies and also several Chinese technology companies Last week, they do was down more than 18 percent and 10 cent, which is a particularly large firm in China was down 33 percent They were hard hit and the decline is prompting margin calls from one of the Archicosts prime brokers triggering similar demands from cash now from other banks The mirror is said to be of one of the casualties that's emerged from the overnight session Their shares of trading down around 16 17 percent now in the mirror In Asian trade facing a total wipeout of profits for the second half of the financial year following that fireside of stocks that they've had to Conduct credit Suisse. They've also come out this morning and they did a pre-trading open Update kind of a statement that they've issued and they basically said that there's there's going to be a highly significant hit to its first quarter Results after it began exiting positions of a large US hedge fund that defaulted on margin calls last week And this is what CNBC have been talking about this morning So What does this mean for the general equities? Well, I guess it's how bad is the problem? and how big was the exposure how much then consequently needs to be unwound and of course this comes in the context of What is month end and quarter end? Which given the nature of some quite excessive our performance in a number of key equity sectors could lead to some Book squaring which could also add to some volatility and volume to the mix In addition to particularly today, I'm sure with a quiet economic calendar to really start Monday's session Quite a lot of focus if they're open on Wall Street could well be on this on You know, who are the other companies that positions need to be exited and one thing I would say is that? when I do see the likes of 10 10 cent down more than 33 percent Doesn't make me feel a little bit like well, you know fundamentally. There's nothing really wrong To some respect with these firms. It's just a case of Positions having to be exited to meet margin calls So when a company is down a third of its value half of its value or more You've got to think that there's going to be some some kind of buyers coming in looking for good value down at that low price so We have to see how how that really plays out But otherwise in terms of the other major news as I said Suez Still garnering a lot of attention over the weekend the container vessel blocking the sewers has at least been partially free According to people with direct knowledge of the matter still a little bit short on Comprehensive details and exactly what's going on is yet, but I'm sure more will emerge as we go on through the morning There's been no immediate clarity on the crucial question of when traffic and the canal will restart The ship has a damaged hull apparently And it's not clear on how soon you'll be able to clear the way for other vessels in order for them to pass Last night it was reported that in terms of the number of ships now that being kind of backlogged due to that blockage It's now more than 450 And last night whether this is still applicable or not There were comments out of the president's canal advisor in Egypt to be basically said to this if the ship hasn't refloated by Monday Night then on Tuesday containers will start getting offloaded to make the vessel lighter as well But it looks like we're nearing the beginning of the kind of solution to this to this problem That arose at the end of last week The other thing then is about vaccines obviously this is ongoing lots of headlines continue on this front The EU reported will block exports of Astra's vaccine if the company fails to deliver the doses bought By the region on time according to the EU vaccines are So far Astros met only 30% of its commitment as pledged to deliver over 70 million doses In the second quarter to the EU alone going forward. So This isn't really a new threat I would say this is probably more just a reiteration of Europe just trying to keep the pressure on On that stance of Astros specifically at the moment So I don't think it really has too much of a tangible value right now for the market open Otherwise for the week It is a holiday short and weak We've obviously got a good Friday Markets closed and then in for Easter on Monday. Some markets will be open Places like the UK will remain closed for Easter Monday, but what does that mean? Well a couple of things In a normal run-up to non-farm payrolls, we do get ADP on Wednesday You've also got ISM on Thursday the jobs report on Friday Analysts at ING made a good overall top-level Summary they said that all of those figures should be pretty strong in fact And the main reason for that is better weather in March versus February If you remember we had that kind of great freeze particularly in Texas and other areas in the US During the period of February and we've also had in combination with that a strong roll-out of the vaccination program in the US Which continues to pick up at record pace and also therefore subsequently the ongoing reopening Steps are being taken by individual steps that is helping them lift activity and as activity lifts then necessity to then Pick up pick up jobs again and start employing people once more So probably expecting a pretty decent number across the board there from from those particular readings Other ones to be aware of I mean stateside on Wednesday, we do have Biden outlying his Build back better green energy and infrastructure plan so that's three trillion dollar Plus plans still yet to be really determined on the details He's due to give a speech directly on that on Wednesday So that definitely could be an interesting event for the week also on Wednesday you get the eurozone Latest flash CPI numbers coming out So that's expected to rise to 1.2 percent year-on-year from 0.9 Chiefly being buoyed at this point by the rise that we've been seeing energy and food prices Then moving on to Thursday As much as this Data coming out the other thing of course we're looking out for is OPEC plus they're having their meeting Just to recap given the persistent demand worries Some of the pullback in prices that we've seen Expectations are generally in place that the OPEC plus cartel are going to just roll over the supply packed Into may at this week's meeting That was according to sources at the end of last week and they're probably very much expected to be the case because we've Been seeing COVID cases picking up quite rapidly in mainland Europe, but also in the US and subsequently Further restrictions being prolonged in some of these Affirmation areas has meant the demand still somewhat questionable and perhaps going to get a little bit further impeded With this latest COVID way that we've been seeing that was in focus last week And so probably makes the most sense that OPEC will simply just roll over at this point So we're looking for confirmation of that the meeting on Thursday and then non-farm parallels of course on Friday Markets will be closed. That's going to be for informational purposes only I guess in that respect really any markets are opening to me particularly illiquid and therefore very volatile Friday's is going to show the strongest rebound and non-farms in months Again expanding vaccinations paired with a pick up in Echinite activity is going to boosted hiring essentially How much of that means? Something more meaningful for the Fed. I don't think a great deal It's just more reflection of those those reasons and so therefore I think the market will just take it for what it is on a very short-term basis, so Could be similar to be mindful of I guess when markets do reopen next week following the holiday at the end of the week And that's that's pretty much it ready What I'll do is obviously there's there's a lot of Interesting questions around this this hedge fund default and what the implications and reasons behind that have been So what I'll do I'll try and get Eddie to do a specific video Just on that to put out later on today So remember subscribe to the channel and hit the bell icon You'll get a notification as soon as that goes out live But he can obviously go into it in way more detail than I from the macro top-level perspective That is it really not not not a great deal of real News flow other than those ones that I've talked about for the market open so Net net for today And we've had a little bit of a pullback in in US futures Just after the ramp up that we saw into the close on Friday Definitely, I think we need to keep an eye out for any further fire sale Of certain US equities at the open on Wall Street We've already seen the Mura Credit Suisse getting hit on the back of that on these margin calls for that hedge fund Otherwise then we do have quarter end And so I can continue to keep you updated as and when I hear any particular flow Or expectations from any institutions about the impacts of that for the coming days But certainly we've already got today through to Wednesday for quarter end So it could be an interesting element To just consider as we go through the rest of session and generally what that means for any new traders is that you could see You know, I guess a lack of fundamental connection to some market movement that you might see In in in the equity market kind of like when a margin call happens and you get forced Liquidation of equity holdings you can see downside inequities in index futures if the proportion that kind of weight is enough in the size of those liquidations or How how big is the breadth of those liquidations? And so without much in the way of real reason equity markets can come under pressure Kind of similar things can happen as well with quarter end with book squaring as people have fund managers Look to close out positions in order to revert back Then if they've had certain outperformance and say tech for example back to then the original parameters of the of the portfolio miss mix and So just like to be aware of And then yeah, and that is it really so any questions at all just let me know Otherwise, I'll see you guys in the discord chat later on this morning. Have a good week. Thanks very much