 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a great start to the weekend. It is Saturday morning getting this update out of the way. And then we have a whole bunch of basketball games in the next two weeks, two week days for my kids. So a lot of basketball, a lot of traveling, a lot of all that good, that stuff that makes life worth living. So let's get about the market. Market continues to be in an aggressive spin cycle. More bank failures. Now they're starting to get pretty regular. It all started with SIVB and then spread to SBNY. And now the new saga of the two stocks of the day with stocks of the week that really haven't been stocks of the week has been stocks for a while. It has been FRC, FRC, which is the First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse that I feel has been pretty much fighting solvency all the way going back to 2007, 2008. Both banks obviously having a lot of trust issues, a lot of financial issues, a lot of solvency issues. And over the weekend you're getting some headlines that are coming across. First Republic Bank now plans to raise money privately. They couldn't get, even though they got an infusion of cash from other banks, they couldn't get anybody who physically take their holdings and their defaults and all that stuff and all that debts and assets and everything into twine and take it off the table. So they're kind of on their own. There's doubt again after the close a lot of banks are down with it. Credit Suisse again in its own world of hell finally coming into a little bit of resolution. They got BlackRock looking at them over the weekend. You got UBS for potential joint venture there over the weekend. So there's a lot of saga, man. A lot of saga and it's taking down a lot of banks with it. I mean you could go through the whole list. It doesn't make a difference whether it's regional, whether it's Main Street, they're all getting hit. It doesn't make a difference. You got Bank of America and it's World of Hell and then you'll have a smaller bank like a Northern Trust, which I like going into this week. Not on the upside obviously. They're running the whole gamut. So the whole financial market looks like it's in dead. Everything looks horrible and it's the worst thing in the world. And yet if you look at the final scoreboard and that's kind of the whole point of all the videos this week. And when you look at the final scoreboard, you have the NASDAQ up 4.4% this week. Absolutely incredible move. You have the SPYs despite majority of the S&P 500. Just keep it on. Just thought of this rationally. Despite a four and a half point move down on Friday, the SPYs, SPX was still up nearly 1.5% for the week. That's amazing considering how much exposure the banks have and all the money rotated into technology going into this week. The most important part of this week will be the March 22nd Fed announcement. Initially there was Dovish statements a couple of weeks back by Chairman Powell with his two-day presentation in front of Congress. It had a lot of Dovish comments. Excuse me, a lot of hawkish comments. He said we don't know. Maybe we raised 25, 50, 75. We don't know and then all of a sudden this banking crisis news came on the forefront. And now the question is, well, not only is there a potential they don't even raise rate, there's a punch or shot. There actually could be kind of a band-aid, which is again not a great thing for the overall spectrum, but kind of a band-aid this time around of maybe cut rates. And that's probably one of the reasons that the money flow went out of everything else in the market and went into high beta technology, right? Which was an unbelievable rally this week, phenomenal rally. If you traded just technology names, again, if you're brand new to the channel, first of all, welcome. If you can be so kind, like, share, subscribe so we can continue to give you free content on a weekly basis. The point is that these stocks are so, so heavily involved with the interest rate cycle, the less interest rates are better than for technology. And that's why we had a big run, right? We had a big run on a speculation that, hey, not only is there probably not going to be a rate hike, but hey, there's a shot here, we cut rates as well and everything under the sun. If you looked at these charts, you would never know in a million years there was a banking issue. AMD went absolutely nuts. Microsoft went absolutely nuts. Amazon had a phenomenal run this week, really great run. Netflix had a phenomenal run this week. Metta had a phenomenal run this week. So the question is, how long can the bulls withstand the actual reality of what's going on, right? And we talked about starting on Monday, starting on Tuesday and developing to Wednesday and Thursday, going into Friday, how the bulls, they continue, right? They continue to brush off bad news. And this was a bullish thing. And that's how the kind of the week played out. And obviously Thursday, there was no video on Thursday. You know, Wednesday, if you guys remember Wednesday, going into Thursday's session, everything was starting to break out. Metta, AMD, I liked, really liked Amazon coming off the bottom of the range. And the point was, the point was the market continued, right? Continued to brush off this bad news. And this has become very, very bullish. And if you look at where the cues were on Friday versus where they were at the top of the range on February 2nd, we were literally a couple of bucks away from 2023 all-times highs with all these bank closures and all these banks in turbulence over the last week, which is absolutely amazing. That's why, again, I've said this years ago, and I've been saying this for years going further. You know, I think the notion of the stock market is dead. I really do. I really do believe the notion of the stock market is dead. I think it's a market full of stocks. It's a market full of stocks. And that's why when there is a bear market in the obvious sector, which is the bank sector, there's obviously some money flow and aggression going into something else. And this week turned into technology. I'm very, very curious to see, number one, how the market starts off on Monday. Friday we had an inside day kind of a res day after this phenomenal, phenomenal four-day run in the Nasdaq, again, which was turned out to be a 4.4% rally for the week. So it really wasn't that crazy that we got a very good res day on Friday. The question is, can we resume, right? Can we resume this rally in technology on Friday? Or is the market going to finally turn around and say, well, I think we've discounted this news for a week. On the banking sector, the economy looks like crap. The banking sector is in turmoil. I think what happens, we start moving low, right? That's the whole theory. Now, the question is, what's going to happen, right? Are the bank stocks going to continue to pull down pretty much everything else? Or is technology going to start picking everybody else and start and continue to discount this bad news and this spin cycle of news flashes that the banking sector has given us for the last week and a half or so? Again, stay tuned. That's why, again, we always try to be neutral in our thinking, try to be unbiased in our opinion and use the data going into the next day, not the next week, but going to the next day prepared for the next day to make sure that we're looking at the market the right way. And again, we are prepared on the long side. We're prepared on the short side. And the question is, what's going to happen next? Obviously to be determined. So let's talk about some levels that we definitely want to watch for this week, or at least starting from Monday. Obviously, if the bears are serious about a potential backtest back to the five-day moving average, I think the bears need to reclaim 303 on the Q's and if they start building below 303, the five-day moving average after this magnificent run somewhere around this 300 level. So if the bears kind of seize control on Monday, they need to get below 303 and stay there. If the bulls want to kind of resume what we started last week, they're going to need to get above this 309 level and stay there. That's basically the range. You've got 309 to the upside, 303 to the downside. That was Friday's channels. In between, you're just looking for individual stock moves for individual setups that you've found over the weekend. And that's a very important point. Your trading day doesn't start at 9.30 the next day. Your trading day starts at the close when you start getting prepared for the next session. So for example, I woke up this morning, 7 o'clock in the morning, did my stretching, got a nice little walk-in with my dog, got about an hour worth of charting, kind of looking at all on the index to see if there's any other groups that are standing out. And again, unprepared days, right? Now days before the open. If you're waking up at 9.25 in the morning and you're looking at the hot stock of the day list, you're screwed, you're dead, you're living on borrowed time. So it's at most importance to make sure you are putting in a lot of work behind the scenes. So when the lights, camera, and action and camera start the roll, you're prepared for the day and not looking for answers, chasing everything that's moving in a three-cent cycle in the first 15 minutes. It's very, very important. So that's where the cues. You got the SPYs. You know, a little bit more crowded, as you can possibly imagine, with all the banks representing a huge portion of the SPYs. I got a sneeze at any moment, so please forgive me in advance. So you have the SPYs had a big, big run on Thursday, big, big run on Thursday, putting a high here, 396.50s, right? You see that 396.50s hit supply. So for the bulls to kind of keep on negating the banking news, they need to get above that 396.50, 397, and start slowly start heating up back into the 50-day moving average. For the bulls to give up control, the bears will need to reclaim this 386. So you have 396 to the upside, 386 to the downside, and everything else in the middle is macro noise. So watch that as well. And for the Russell, you know, not acting as good as the other two groups. Russell has problems, okay? The smaller cap, smaller cap representation, the speculation money representation is not being demonstrated. Obviously, you know, the flight to safety is in technology, flight out of safety is into anything speculative. So the IWM here has this 170 level that it's held now three separate days. You see that, guys? 170, 170, 170. If the IWM starts losing 170 this week, it could start a new cycle of selling. I'm curious to see going into this week's individual names if we can continue, right? Apple looks great. Okay, if we could start building above the top of the channel here, Apple can break out. You got AMD with a massive, massive run here after the breakout here. We, you know, we highlighted this breakout at this 89 level four days ago. Phenomenal move. You know, is it possible it rests this week? It should. I mean, that's healthy-wise. It should rest. But so should NVIDIA after this phenomenal, phenomenal run, phenomenal move. I'm going to be watching this thing for a potential, I don't use the word backside move because it's really not a backside move, but you see this little inverted hammer on NVIDIA. If it starts losing Friday's channel, I'm going to keep an eye on this thing for a potential back test into the five-day moving average. One name that just didn't participate at all was Tesla, right? Tesla had a little bit of a run, caught some scouts here and there. But Tesla's sitting in a very tight channel here. You can see this four-day channel, one, two, three, four. It's stuck here between the 20-day moving average and the five. Something has to give here, right? Something really has to give. It doesn't necessarily even have to give on Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday. You know, the longer it stays in this channel, the higher probability the stock will move in that direction. But here's what I did start seeing. On Friday, we did start seeing some April 170 puts come in. There was one guy who came in for 2,500 for the April 170 puts, notable about 2.5, 2.7 million. We also saw some 65s as well. Didn't see a lot of upside call buying in Tesla this week, maybe just because it is stuck. People ask me all the time, why isn't Tesla participating? The reason it's not participating is just underneath supply. You see all these lines, right? These are all supply zones. For a stock, they get moving. They have to get above. So for Tesla to really get going, it would really need to close at least above 186, at least. But for this thing to get some airspace, it would need to reclaim the 91 level. But the bottom channel here, I'm definitely watching both sides because if we could start losing this 150, they moving average. I think there's a shot it loses the 50 as well. And it could be a lot of really good selling potential there as well, especially if technology gets weaker, if they start actually living in reality instead of negating bad banking news. So there's a lot of stuff on the plate this week. We have the Fed. We have the ongoing saga with solvency issues with banks. We'll see, man. We'll see. That's the whole point of trading. You have to be prepared for everything. You have to be prepared for both sides of the market. But the most important part is you have to be prepared. Guys, have a great weekend. Stay in business. Stay happy. Stay healthy. And the most important part is stay alive so we can have this conversations again going into the next week. Have a great, great weekend, guys. I'll see you soon.