 What's up guys this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful new year. I know I just chilled with the house and was just ready to get back to work to be honest. But let's go ahead and get into our first setup here. So we're going to be looking at L-Sid. I really like this falling wedge here. You see it's breaking out slightly. It wasn't really a crazy increase of volume when it broke out but I still feel like it could be worth a watch. Everybody will see it move up to $7.89 first. I need to see what it does from there before going any higher but I mean I could just see it. You know maybe curl it up about there. Reject it about there. And then you know if it does well or obviously that $7.89 is going to need to get cleared. So I'm looking at calls on that. Last week we had a lot of call setups last week but the market really went nowhere. So I'm hoping this week will be a little bit better because I mean there really wasn't that many great setups last week. The index has stayed in the range and I mean it just it could have been better. So let's go ahead and get into number two here. We're looking at PayPal. Similar setup. I mean if you drew a trend line here, pretty much looks like a falling wedge as well. Just like I'll say. But maybe not as tight. The one thing you're going to want to see PayPal do here is get over the $71.17 level. It's going to run up maybe to major resistance at $77.81 assuming that it can catch some bullish momentum. And you can see it's just a straight sell-in balance area in this area. Then it comes up to the $50.00 EMA as well as the $77.81. So I can see it running up about there and you know finding resistance about there. If you want, set an alert, maybe make sure this area doesn't break or you know make sure it is reclaiming with assurance that it's getting over that $71.17 and if we zoom this out a little bit so the volume is on the way, that $71.17 comes from this pivot right here. You can see that pivot low from the spurning. Made support here. I mean you can just see why this $71.17 could be important to reclaim. So yeah I'm looking at calls on that as well. If you want to stay conservative, just stick to day trades, you know same as usual. If you're going to swing trade, obviously 30 to 60 days of expiration is going to be your best bet. And you know you're not going to take all these to go of this video and every week's video is to let you look at five different ones, see which one maybe looks best to you, maybe pick one or two of them or so so you don't overwhelm yourself and then you can go ahead and you know try to enter and make sure your risk profile is set out. You have a stop loss and all that good stuff. Remember this is just like ideas, it's not like a suggestion or financial advice or anything. I'm just playing the technicals and I'm sharing my ideas with you so just always remember that. Always remember to manage risk. So looking at calls, L-SID and PayPal, the volume is pretty good. I mean these are pretty liquid names. The option chain usually has high volume and open interest. That could be good. I just like to pay attention to more liquid assets because you know you can exit out of the option sooner. The spreads aren't as wide and you know you can go ahead and exit nice. So we're going to go into Home Depot, ticker symbol HD. So you can see I mean clear head and shoulders right, bearish pattern. One thing the bearish do have going against them is this up trend line. So there is always a vulnerability of that curling up you know the trend line heading back up to supply. So what we're going to be doing is not entering this right away or anything. We're going to be waiting for the neckline to break first to confirm the head and shoulders and that would give you you know about what is the 31150 support. So when the 31150 support breaks you can pretty much confirm that the neckline will go ahead and break down and you can enter put. So we're going to add alert at horizontal trend line. We'll name it breakdown slash neckline and that would go ahead and give you an alert to wait for. So you can wait for this to set up. If you were any more bullish this week on the market, I mean this trend line could be good to play off of maybe for short-term calls or something. I just really I don't like the head and shoulders pattern. You know the head and shoulders obviously you got your first shoulder. You got a higher high making a peak. You got a second shoulder and eventually it can break down. I'm sure a lot of you have seen these play out time and time again. I think the daily timeframe is really useful finding these kind of patterns. I think they're more successful than if you were to like, you know, taste something intraday. You know, you see a five minute head and shoulders. You're prone to get fake out. But with the one day and the four hour and the hourlies, I feel like these patterns are just more reliable as well as trend lines and support and resistance just much more reliable when you're focusing on the daily level. So that's why we're doing that. But yeah, so this 31150 area is going to be your area of focus. You're going to wait for that to break down before entering anything. So this is kind of playing the waiting game on this setup. I'll sit in PayPal. Obviously you do have to confirm and break out. So maybe you don't have to wait for those, but maybe I mean you could wait for a dip, maybe wait for a back test or something and always wait for confirmation. You know, don't just enter and get FOMO just because you see something right at Monday's open. Pay attention to the first 15 minutes. Make sure that cash open is good. People are, you know, buying and supporting the thesis that it's going to go up or down before entering something. You know, that first 15 minutes, you know, sometimes it'll establish a range that creates your opening range. You could trade the opening range breakout. Yeah, I mean, it's a good time to focus on the first 15 minutes before entering something. So that's just a little tip. You know, if you are day trading or trying to learn how to enter stuff better, maybe just wait the first 15 minutes. You know, don't you don't always just jump into something. Wait for something to confirm your bias. Let the alibis and Wall Street hash it out the first 15 minutes because it can get a little crazy, right? The volume is picking up. Mark it on open orders or flooding in from Wall Street and it could create a lot of volatility and it would be a little overwhelming. So yeah, just remember that. Maybe wait the first 15 minutes. Like I said, yeah, 311.50 is the focus. I'm going to put some of this next. We're going to go into EEM. So this is the emerging markets index. It's ETF really nice volume 24 seven. I mean, this is like 38 million shares. And you can see it's a liquid asset. So I really like this one in terms of trading the emerging market. So with this is the head and shoulders similar to HD, what you just saw, you get the left shoulder creates a P even redacted off supply up there. You can see it comes back down, makes a second shoulder. But this one is unconfirmed as well. If you really wanted to be sure, we're going to set an alert at 3735. Do the same thing, breakdown slash neckline. And that's going to be your confirmation for puts on the bear setup. So you'll want to see a breakdown, back test the line, back test the neckline maybe, cause obviously it's not just going to go straight down all the time. I mean, wait, it can, but then maybe head back down to demand. So that's what I'm looking at on EEM. Just wait for that 3735 level to break. We set an alert. So it'll be ready for when that happens. Obviously if you're a bearish, you're still vulnerable to support. It can, you know, chop around at support. It can bounce off there. Yeah. I mean, you just want to see, you know, some confirmed action confirming your bias. And that 3735 would confirm your neckline break. And that comes from this pivot over here. Next, we're going to CLF. So I really like this one for puts. Obviously it's got a clear gap right here. Had a major gap of found trend line resistance. So I was thinking maybe it could feel the gap back down, test the lower trend line. We're trying to probably crop about there after the gap is closed and after the trend line has been tested. So that could be a good one. I would probably focus more on a day trade for this one just because the gap's like not huge or anything. So the only thing that would be huge on is if it filled, you know, in the first day, that would be a big drop. I mean, you can see, we'll go to the info line. If it filled the whole gap, 4.73% return, just on shares. So, I mean, with options, you know, price that it. CLF can have a little bit higher implied volatility. So the premiums could be a little higher, but I really feel like this could be worth for a day trade, especially if you caught a flat percent move for the gap fill. I mean, those puts can pay really nice. And then what you're doing is just using the lower trend line as a projection for your price target. We do this a lot in our setup. So we, you know, maybe take something counter trend and then we'll aim for the lower trend line in the channel or up trend line, whatever it has. And then exit about there. We did it with like Netflix. I think it was like two weeks ago. And I mean, we do it a lot. So if you ever, you know, want to go back and watch some of those and, you know, mark the time periods and see how it did afterwards, it could give you some educational value. All you're doing is just using this lower trend line as your projection target. So nothing too difficult focusing on the gap. You got 200 EMA rejection here. Got your 200 EMA. The only thing going against you, MACD is still positive. KDJ is trying to curl down, but it hasn't flipped red yet. Like you see in this one. So once that KDJ flips red, I mean, there's a good signal that the market might be curling down on the short term. KDJ will flip signals faster than MACD. MACD kind of smooths out the fall signals, I think. So you can see a state in the buy signal here for longer. Waited a second and flipped red before the KDJ flipped red. KDJ flipped red first, I'm sorry. And then the MACD came in and flipped. You can see it does give early sell signals, early buy signals. So I think the KDJ is more of like a short term, kind of a short term indicator to, you know, see where the market trend is going to flip. So yeah, we're going to have puts on that. We'll go through it again. L-SID, we're looking at calls. PayPal, looking at calls. HD, waiting for confirmation on puts. I think it was like 311.50 cents or something. So 311.50 was your neckline. EEM, we're waiting for that, what is that, 37.50 or something. Waiting for that neckline to break. And then CLF, I mean, you want to see this gap fills and maybe you want to see selling on the cash open first. Maybe take out Friday's low. So if we go into the hourly here, you got OCD, you're rid of that. Let's say it wants to take out Friday's low. That could be your signal to go ahead and take a trade on the gap filled down. That would be at 15.93. So we'll set an alert there too. We'll do Friday's low slash gap fill. So once that Friday's low gets taken out, that's when you will have the confirmation that's going to go ahead and start filling down. Always wait for that. We're setting these confirmation levels first before entering stuff. Sometimes these are going to hit and you're going to get your entry point and sometimes you're not. But that's the beauty of just waiting for confirmation so you don't rush in. And I'd rather be late than early sometimes, to be honest. Because when I'm early, you got to deal with a lot of chop. Sometimes you'll deal with it just bouncing between support and resistance. That's no fun to get caught in unless you're selling premium. So yeah, just wait for that confirmation level first. It's going to give you a little bit more peace of mind, maybe. You know, there's obviously going to be fake outs when it does break down sometimes, but either way, I feel like you're getting a better entry point most of the time just because you're waiting and you're being patient. Next, we'll go into the indexes. So this is the spy. Last week, we were just focused on this demand zone low. So add our major support back here at 390. That was pretty much our focus level. If you're bullish, you do want it to reclaim the 390. So it's the same thing as last week. I mean, we literally went nowhere. This was Friday's closed from last week. This is where we closed this Friday. I did say we had a fairly good argument for a counter trend reversal on Tuesday. Just because we're pulling against the demand zone, you can see it did rip for a couple of days, was not able to get back over 390. Also stayed under the 50. You may have MACD stayed in the negative signal. KDGA stayed in the negative signal. So I mean, you can just see, one could even argue that this is kind of like a bear flag. I mean, if you did this and this, I mean, what does that look like to you? I mean, it looks like a bear flag, but unconfirmed. So either it's going to pop out of the pendant to the upside or it's going to pop down and break the bear flag and confirm it. So with these kind of pennants, the thing is that they are bilateral. So when they're bilateral, they can go either way, which is why you wait for confirmation for one of them to break. I don't know if you've ever seen the symmetrical wedge. It's kind of like that. So you can't get faked out if you don't wait. You know, somebody might be entering in here, thinking, oh, it's a bear flag. It's going to break down. And then next thing you do, it's popping out of the pendant and ripping to the upside because it broke out. So that's one thing you want to do. Just wait for the trend line to get broken out. You can see why I didn't want to go short here last week. I was saying I want to be careful shorting down here. I mean, this is demand zone, just holding like glue, chopping around. You know, we didn't go anywhere last week. So I'd say that was a good warning for us, honestly. I mean, to not go crazy with anything, especially puts because, I mean, just look at this giant wick. You know, look at these little candles. Every time it gets down here, it just ripped. So this is a demand zone, obviously an accumulation area. People are adding Wall Street institutions. So you want to be careful with that. But yeah, Kiddy J is crossing up for spot. So that's good. But otherwise you're going to be waiting for this little pendant to either break in either direction. So I don't really have any reading for you right now. Maximum, I got you at 390 or last week's high, which is 387.41. Maximum, I can put you at demands on low, but until, if you're bearish of course, but until one of those breaks, I can't put you any higher. So those are pretty much your focus levels. Same as last week, same general area. Next, we'll go into the QQQs. This is the NASDAQ. I was feeling a little bit more bearish on this one last week. And that was because of this trendline breaking. I was showing you last week, this looked a little bit worse than Spy because this trendline was freshly broken and it did sell off into Tuesday instantly for like two days until it hit this lower support. Perfect. So bears, if you were able to catch this trendline breakdown, you probably ate for a couple of days and they're good. And I was feeling a little bit more bearish on QQQ, but a little more neutral on Spy. And you could see exactly why because of the fresh trendline break and you do have this little low here to be tested eventually. Spy, I mean, it was right in demand. It was looking like it would be more neutral, consolidated. I would say QQQ, I mean, it got torn up for a couple of days before, you know, able to find the bottom. So this week, I'm not really seeing anything specific. You go down into the four hour, there was like some sort of, it was kind of like a wedge, right? Did this, and you can see it, you know, it broke out for a couple of days. But otherwise, I mean, I mean, right in the same spot as when it broke out. So not really seeing anything clear in that. You can maybe argue that the following wedge could turn into something. Although I would have liked to see quicker follow-through on that. One thing to have going for you for the Bulls is the 25908 support holding maximum. Like, you know, I could put Bulls up the, you know, the trendline and supply. Probably back-tested about there that I could see resistance per usual. But the same thing as last week. Bulls, if you wanna see it, you know, do anything major, you're gonna need to reclaim and invalidate the trendline, as well as the supply. So this is a fresh supply zone. This just created a sale imbalance. So something happened in this day to lead to this. And that's the focus level when you get up there. So yeah, not really seeing anything specific on the QQQ. Bulls have a good argument that it's holding 359 pretty well. Could run up the supply, but maximum, you know, I could put you there. Bears, if it didn't want to break down, obviously you need to get under 259, which is that support. And then maybe go down to the 254 or 52 we go up. That's about as low as I could, you know, about as low as I can go. Because I gotta see how it reacts to the area first. So keeping your targets, you know, tight, not, you know, over-expecting from the market. Usually, I mean, it's, you know, it's gonna make you feel a lot better than if you're shooting through the sky or, you know, shooting for help, which would be way, way lower. Yeah, that's the QQQ. Spy, obviously you're gonna want to wait for the pendant. QQQ did have a small falling wedge, but otherwise, you know, you just want to see this 259 focus level and then the supply. If it didn't get up there, you'd need to watch carefully. Next, we're going to the IWM. Same thing as last week. So this is 174.11. It did break down briefly, but now it's just chopping at the area. We're gonna want to see it, you know, just stay over the 174.11. Obviously, it made a new support low here at 170, but otherwise, I mean, it looks the same. I mean, it pretty much looks similar to the Spy. If you just drew like a little pendant here, you'd be waiting for it to do something out of here. I mean, if you went down to the one hour, it gives you a little bit more clear of like a wedge. So it gives you a little bit more of a clear wedge formation. You can see it would need to break out of this for the bowls. If it did want to break out, you want to see it, you know, break out, back test where it probably tried to head up into the one hour 200 EMA or even this 176. So that's another thing with IWM, but otherwise, I mean, it could see the trend line resistance here if it doesn't get over. So that's just something to be mindful of if you do trade the IWM. I know a lot of people in X trades like to trade it. So it's a good liquid asset. It's got good options, it moves nice. It does have sometimes a different effect than the Spy. Keep your cue because you are trading the small mid cap. So yeah, just watch this upper trend line on the one hour. Daily, obviously that same 174.11. I'll even separate the color because this is a different level. This is a daily level. You're going to want to see it stay over 174.11. And then these are kind of like your, this is your low and then this is your weekly. What is that? December 21st high. So you need to see that get taken out as well for the bowl. Otherwise, just be careful of the trend line. Wait for it to break out if you're going to take calls or anything. Puts, you know, for bears might have a good argument here. Just make sure it stays within the trend line. If not, you know, go ahead and stop out because it could get squeezy on the short term. Next, we'll go into the VIX. And I just wanted to throw that out there. We're not going to have the seasonality on the video this week. Season X did turn off their free option for the S&P 500. And I don't have a membership with them. So sorry about that. If you want, just go to the Watchlist Chattel and options watch list in our X-Trade Discord and go ahead and just click on my Almanac page if you want to see like a little, you know, historical outlook on the market. I can tell you that the first trading day, I believe for the new year, does average about, I think the last 20 out of 25 years was an up day. So we'll see. That doesn't mean it's going to happen or anything. 2022 is a completely different year. So, you know, we've got rising interest rates. Fed is, you know, pretty much trying to slow down the economy. So you got to be careful, you know, trading off seasonality realizes just data. It's not 100% or anything, but, you know, it could give you a small outlook and maybe, you know, confirm your bias a little bit. But yeah, so here's the VIX. So I'll go into the data real quick. After Friday's close of 2166, we're going to bring our average down to 2568. So this is our average close for 2022. This is every single close of the year. I'm going to have to start tracking one for 2023 now. So this is our closing volatility average, which is crazy. I mean, 2568 is very elevated. Usually you're seeing the VIX, you know, you know, averaging way lower than that. And if you go to any website and compared to each year, you'll see how elevated this is by a percentage basis. It's crazy. Really went nowhere last week though. I mean, we're still in the same rage. I got the same levels as before. Bears, you're going to want to see it. You're going to start curling back up, head it back up to the 2022 average. We obviously have major resistance up there as well as the moving averages. If you're bullish on stocks, you want to see it go lower down into the 19th. But honestly, that's where I maybe start looking at spot puts is when it gets down a little like that. You know, starting to go short, the spy when the VIX, you know, gets around 20, it's been a very, you know, profitable strategy. And there's even data to prove that. Just for 2022, of course. Any other time, I mean, I can't really speak for that, but just speaking in terms of 2022, you got to realize it was a midterm year and we were, you know, having rate hike go on a lot. So we must have the Fed raise rates, you know, at least five or six different times. So definitely it's going to put pressure on corporate profits. It's going to, you know, put pressure on the middle class. I mean, these guys dictate our money supply. So you got to be really careful betting against them or, you know, even betting with them because they will move the market. Yeah. So you see, I mean, just the 1994, you could just round that up to 20 is their focus level. You know, bulls, you want to see that to hold if it does get down there. I'm personally probably looking at loading puts for a swing 30 to 60 days out when it gets down here. I've just been waiting for the VIX to do something and it just hasn't done anything. It's just been chopping. So we have bearers. I mean, obviously when it gets up to the 2022 average close, that'd be your, that'd be your mean regression target probably to take profit on put. Because you don't know what it's going to do up here and there is a good chance that it will reject. If they wanted to reclaim over the 2022 average close, you know, that could be good for you to take more puts. But first, you want to see it volatility get elevated and you want to see it above that. So what I'll probably do this year, I'll probably carry over this average, you know, just to see, since, you know, since they started raising rates of 2022, I want to see how volatility is going to be affected by that and how the economy is going to affect it as well. So I feel like it'll be smart to keep 2022 and its own thing, but then, you know, roll it over to 2023 in the data so we can keep a consistent average, you know, volatility. So yeah, that's probably what I'll do. And then we'll also start a separate, you know, 2023 volatility average, just so we have a chart and we can see, you know, how it's doing. Next, we're moving to the DXY. So I was personally looking for more upside on the DXY last week. It did not do that. You can see it's just been chopping in this channel. I feel like it had a really good case to, you know, go to the upper trend line and reject about there, but it didn't even do that. It really didn't even do much last week, but now it's just testing 103.44 support, you see? So if you're bearish on stocks, you're going to want to see this hold up. Otherwise, I mean, equities can go pretty crazy. Otherwise, if you're bullish, you're going to see this 103 area get broken. We're probably headed on to 103 flat. Where I get 103 flat from is this. Let me just remove this channel real quick and make this more clear. So I get that 103 level from this little peak here. So this is a 2022 peak from when COVID hit. I would probably try to test about there and maybe try to hold up about there, to be honest. So if that 103.44 support does break, I would really focus on this 2020 peak from when COVID came. You can see that's what it peaked. And then, you know, the Fed came in and came in with unlimited money printing for policy and it just totally destroyed our dollar. So, but now, I mean, you can see, I mean, all year, it's been going crazy, but this is an extremely important level. I think you want to see it hold. If you're a bear, if it went back under, that could be really good for stock. That's pretty much my outlook for DXY. Just make sure to go back to the one day. Make sure that, you know, short term, 103.44 holds, otherwise, I mean, it could get, you know, ugly for bears. So I hope everybody enjoyed this video. Happy New Year. Let's have a great start to Q1. Straight safe, you know, maybe, you know, start small before entering any large positions. Cause, I mean, a lot of trends can be waiting to get established here going into the new year. Make sure you like, comment, and subscribe to our Xtrade YouTube channel. I love you guys and I'm out.