 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now David white And welcome everyone excellent There wait welcome to another excellent Our trading hour and it doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here at the appointed time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m. Well, we got a lot of things going on S&Ps down 55 points and for whatever reason that I am unsure of I Got a mouse that continues to click around where weird spots Maybe it needs a new battery, but if weird things happen today, just Know that it may be down to that battery, which I'll try to change at the first Now now what do we have going on? There's a few things I want to talk about today before we get into any charts one is Kind of the idea of a hundred-year flood in the marketplace. I suspect we are in that I was expecting yesterday to close back above 4,000 on the S&P cash That would have been a big signal closing below it was also a big signal I thought maybe the last few minutes something would come along it did not I waited till the Fairly big bounce and got out of the last two positions. I had that we put on in the last day or two And is it a you know, are you gonna make a lot of money? Going along right now probably not, but I do want to talk about a kind of an idea Our way to describe How I look at the markets and one of those is kind of a risk-reward model And normally I'll put my mouse over it here You've got kind of a kind of a bell curve of returns over time in the market the market has a Different distribution that Curve most people call it a fat tail and most people put the little Tail out there just a little higher on the right and left-hand shoulders of this curve That is not true that is a fallacy and You can read about it in several things Nassim Tlaib calls it the black swan event But this is kind of the Bell curve of options expiration to and I've done enough work on it at some point you get to the very bottom and If it goes any further instead of expecting a one percent or maybe one and a quarter percent Down move I mean up move from the lows that you normally get eight out of ten times in A year in the option market You kind of get over a little bit of a hump and that hump exposes the huge downsides over the next seven trading days and What I kind of consider the a asymmetrical trade To the short side and that is that if you can't close Mostly above yesterday's low Then you can expect Three times average To the upside during options expiration Which is normally about a percent to a percent and a half depending on which year you look at to a three and a half percent downside on average and It's kind of one of those things where you keep throwing a straw on the back of a camel And you're not exactly sure where it's gonna bust and then it busts Well, the markets actually cracked yesterday to the downside at least to the way I Do stuff mathematically And we were just a little bit to the outside of it You're gonna get a lot of bounces like we got today thank God There was a good opportunity to get out And one of the stocks I was in had a 40% short Sell number in it yesterday So you knew you were probably gonna get a fairly good nice bounce to get out on and the same thing with the S&P's Everybody went short But as soon as the market starts getting any kind of headway you get a great deal more selling And of course at this point we're really in the point where there's gonna be margin calls selling at 1030 and Pretty much 230 so in about 20 minutes. We'll see how bad it gets Eventually it will burn itself out My guess though is after a small bounce you're going to get a retest of whatever low we do get so there's not a lot of reasons to to Other than looking at the five-minute charts to be going long here at the same point This has happened before and There was a thing called what? long-term capital management and For people that haven't been around the market for a long time that was kind of my introduction to full-time trading In October November of 1998 Where you were probably the equivalent? Being down maybe twenty two hundred maybe twenty five hundred points in the S&P cash and it closed What would be twenty five hundred points higher today and equivalent numbers just give you kind of the scale of what happened when? Green span and I'm trying to remember the other guy walked in That is the problem when you get markets that are down like this It's a Fed decides to maybe think that maybe there's a little too much going on At that point they ignored bonds in Russia by the way so history doesn't repeat itself, but it does kind of rhyme and You can see it anyway For a risk-a-ward at best. I suspect now you're looking at a percent higher through the 20th of May and a possible three and a half percent downside so What do you have you have a market that is unless you trade like I said very short-term probably not tradeable because either bounce from a Fed announcement and or some other reason and And or a black swan event Could take you out even as far down as we are now Just on average If we continue down look for another three and a half percent lower I'm talking about on the S&P NASdeck is a worthless index because six stocks are 60 percent of everything So it's much much do about nothing for the most part But you know what you've got a lot out here, but look at those What what they call the fat tails out there and this is really what the fat tails look like during options expiration And that is look at three maybe even three and a half times the downside once the market's broke and gets out of Now why do I think You worried Are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job A little easier learn to take the path of least resistance with David white's powerful trading newsletter David white is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade by understanding these trading ranges David white is able to find a path of least resistance David white's trading newsletter The path of least resistance is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David white's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee Take the path of least resistance at tfnn educating investors Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive Informational edge you need to succeed These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at tfnn.com educating investors Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions Live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with Expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors That's one eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Internationally at seven two seven eight seven three seven six one eight So as we return As I said kind of the hundred year flood comes every ten years the stock market I think we're kind of in one of those right now in a bear market but expect about three times what you would normally expect to the downside and Yeah, maybe a third of that to the upside if you get something going One of the reasons why I said you'd want to be a little worried about what the feds doing is if you didn't If you thought this was over months ago As most people probably thought it was going to be Powell's vote to get confirmed is today Whatever he's been doing they've been hanging this over his head for a while. I'm not exactly sure what they're looking for But you know what supposed to be the vote this afternoon finally He's I don't know what he's been doing is he the temporary Fed guy because his term ran out I'm not exactly sure anyway Maybe the vote coming to this afternoon are supposed to be this afternoon sometime So maybe after that happens, we may see a more active Powell than we've seen in the past When we go to look at Semiconductors It seems like Taiwan semiconductor understands Only too well That it is a monopoly in the fab business And as we look at it a little lower today Little energy is a little off that March 29th low down to today's gap lower But they're raising their prices another 8% after four months ago raising them 20% And it's going down. That's probably tells you that even with pricing Strength To their customers it doesn't really matter people are worried about an invasion of Taiwan But I thought that was one of the things that was kind of interesting that I don't see a lot of people talking about For streaming we saw Disney Down a little earlier in the day that it was up. I haven't looked in the last hour You got a big kind of spinning Top out here at the moment They were up about five bucks to 110 after hours last night Actually were kind of hammered earlier pre-market Never really did that much One of the things that a lot of these guys including Netflix and now Amazon are working on And that is freemium Shows that are shows that you have to that you watch but they're gonna be commercials anyway, even after you pay them Bosch, which is the longest running series on Amazon is That way the new series which is kind of like a continuation if you I'm a big fan of the book series So I've watched them all but in the book series. There's kind of like three major parts of The detective life and that is detective on robbery homicide in Hollywood and then He goes off and becomes a private detective for a while and then he comes back and starts doing clothes Cold cases Later on and also goes to work for Santa Barbara police for a little while. I think to anyway There's like 30 books in the series or something. It's there's a lot to mine there But kind of interesting to see that it probably doesn't make a big hill of beans for Amazon but with Netflix LX and Apple both eyeing this idea that well now that we got you to sign up. We're going to get you to pay anyway Maybe you have a little problematic It's not as bad as it could be today on Netflix But of course, this is one that's been beaten down fairly strong didn't get much of a bounce and continues to be lower We've talked long before these started to fall about the problems that Disney Netflix and to a lesser extent Amazon Has with production prices in Hollywood There are now 630 last time we talked about this I think a week or two ago. There were 610 scripted shows There's now 630 English scripted shows In production, I don't know how even if you just wanted to know the names of them much less Actually watch them if you'd ever be able to get to all of them, but you got that anyway Netflix It may just be at the point where it's hard to get it to go any lower than it's gone But almost all these companies had huge problems now for Netflix You have two huge gaps and as I said, I'm not a fan at all ever nada zero goose egg About buying a stock that has two big gaps down Because 80% of the time you're gonna get one more so as far as Netflix Disney these stocks that have been down that have big gaps down I am not a fan until you get that third gap Even if you have to go somewhere else now in Disney you've got Really a couple of decent sized gap the first one at 170 the second one at 130 and generally But not always there's a little bit of symmetry So I'm gonna say that you're probably gonna get a gap down in Disney And that may be the first opportunity to find some lows in it Okay Anyway, you can give me call 877-927-6648 see what we have out here Okay, Jay answered that earlier answered that one earlier But yeah, here's it accelerated losses trump any technical signals And what I thought was probably the best hand I could have an aces yesterday turned into a widow maker, but There's no shame in being wrong in the market. The only shame is staying wrong and I sold on the bounce this morning Okay, what else do we have? Let's take a look now. Did that get everything? Oh Lastly That we haven't got to We're starting to see the dead rise from the graves And that is GME Okay now you had kind of a nice bounce in GameStop today and A lot of people are looking at it was much higher earlier but again if You're somebody said it in the den what's going on here? if you need cash you go to where you can get it and At this point if you were long this thing and had it at five bucks or two bucks or whatever Yeah, you're probably pretty long in the tooth There's going to be a lot of things going on these things continue to be massively shorted So don't be surprised to see big moves like that only to give them up later in the day But these things are going to be incredibly volatile as the bulls and bearers Go after it at some point every stock can be literally too shorted to go any lower What happens when people won't sell and There are no more shares to cover Well, the market makers could short it during the day, but it becomes problematic If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metals sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the XAU HUI gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting Tfnn.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today Tfnn has just launched their new trading room the Tiger's Den hosted at discord Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tigers Den You can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other Tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs And join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas Interact with other Tigers and Tigris's as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Even at night and on the weekends the Tigers Den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of tfnn.com Tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in Collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology Using this first-of-its-kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci Formation setups including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies and much more The art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks Just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now We're offering licenses available at only $79 a month We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day Unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information Just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com I don't hear any audio Do not know Maybe somebody in the bin will call me whether they're hear me Okay, cool enough Got How about an episode which explains the cop can afford a ten million dollar home I think in the series one Hector Where they made a movie and he got a million and a half dollars that that was like and I think in the mid 90s or something And he bought that house with all the money That's that's it. I've been in that house by the way For a thing they rent that out quite a bit You'll see it in many movies including heat and a handful of others But there was a rat party for some movie that we went to so that's what to know. I don't want sticky keys Okay He sent me that three times Okay question about constellation brands from the den You've got kind of a fairly decent retracement on this again There's going to be stocks that people pile in for our retracement What I'd want to do is see how it does at 240 my guess is you are going to get there and it's probably going to be tomorrow and Maybe it holds. Maybe it doesn't I don't want to make a prediction on it. As I said, I'm pretty pretty bearish on Any long or short position out here that isn't fairly short in duration and overnight really a crap shoot And that is the the yin and the yang the market wants to actually disc it get tanked But will the Fed kind of step in and maybe do something overnight and That is a real problem and once the once Powell's confirmed today. I think he's probably gonna Probably think a whole lot less about About what he does and worry about it. He'll have his two or three years. He's not running again I don't think and that would be it. So I would be I Would be a Seller of just about everything until you get some kind of Reversal in the market We should have held four thousand on the S&P cash. We did not we broke it The volume was good not quite the volume. I wanted to see 18 billion shares would have been good. We got about 15 and a half billion shares But the market that's close enough for the market to continue lower. So we'll keep an eye on it And see what else we have here. Anyway, you like the light volume you're gonna retest probably That low which is the 318 my guess tomorrow to 240 66 Again, if you're gonna play anything out here, I would want to limit your risk and Probably the only way to do that right now is with options, although they may be How confirmed look for 75% basis point for sure, okay They need to boot in and booze and drugs that's what to invest in okay Okay, anyway, that's kind of it And Question on Apple a APL My guess is they continue to sell this because guess what? Just like what was the bank robbers name in the 30s when they asked him why he robbed banks He said that's where the money is Right now as I pointed out there were a lot of confluence areas and once these broke You kind of just have to look downtown you get fairly good Support levels on these but let's go back to this once Apple really broke through this one. I'm gonna say it's 150 155 156 area That's it. Now you get the real big movement out here on confluence If it dips below that you've lost now you're going back into the low of 137 89 That's the October 4th low at $98 And you had all right, excuse me at 98 million shares. You got 128 million today. Don't you? Where's that yesterday? 128 million shares already So you're approaching 137 89 with our 80 too much volume, but If you're in a market and you're sitting on something that you bought at 15 bucks It's and it's not uncommon and I think I brought this up. Maybe on Monday that Invariably instead of selling the stinking stocks These guys will sell the stocks that are good Mostly because maybe they'll lose 10% on the on the sale because everybody else is selling these big stocks But you literally can't sell the other ones for 10 cents on the dollar So Invariably they will do the wrong thing Those stocks will continue the the horrible stocks will continue to go bankrupt And they'll be out of the stocks that might give them any kind of upside going into the future So we'll see that Okay What we have out here I haven't looked at it in a while. So we'll go ahead and bring up Caterpillar for Jeffrey Again when we that when you started breaking And couldn't get up past Confluence areas that just opens up Pandora's box for the downside And You know, you're into this gap which should act as support at 9.3 million shares with this 2 million shares So is it one of the better-looking ones out here certainly is question is in this market condition even with light volume is That going to fail and again the history for things in 2019 1998 during the long-term capital thing the dot-com bust in 2000 the housing bust in 2007 Can we add now the Bitcoin, I've never called it Bitcoin. I called it the Bitcoin. Can we add Cryptocurrencies now to the long list of stuff people believe that just wasn't true Maybe anyway Caterpillar certainly a beautiful home in A crack neighborhood that's getting worse and that's probably the best thing you can say yes It's a wonderful home and the lawn is manna is manicured magnificently but you got a bunch of bullet holes from drive-bys come and buy your house and Caterpillar Probably one of the easier ones probably hold because it's so invested in less tech kind of Hedge funds like ARC they'd never have a caterpillar in there This is kind of thing that maybe profit would buy on the downside but You know if you can get some kind of signal, I don't see one everything below 4,000 This reminds me of the first five minutes of SVU You know just the worst and gross and makes you feel dirty and have to take a shower kind of thing First five minutes of ice-cream. 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Yeah, of course GLD Gotta be looking at that Gotta be looking at that 1776 that I think Larry Pezzavento has been talking about for a while on the GLD I think you're close enough within three points of the 166 37 Test out here probably the best thing you can say is the volumes a little lighter But 166 37 As I said, maybe get a little change in Powell now that he's confirmed Confirmed nut, but anyway just kidding But anyway confirmed What do they call it when they put you? In the nut house not condemned Committed that's it Yeah, 1776 anyway As far as I could tell you're in an ABC doesn't look horrible out here Hopefully you haven't been writing this thing down 16. Yeah 166 37 on the GLD But I don't see any reason to even get excited until you get a retest of that now So there'd be another 30 bucks down and that's close enough to Larry 1776 That I liked it. I just haven't followed it that much I don't like being short gold and I kind of watch it for bottoms that I might want to buy I hate the thought of maybe being long Gold the day that a nuke goes off and it just wipes me out So I tend to be you know I wouldn't buy I wouldn't mind being short if I knew it was going down with options But I wouldn't want the whole I wouldn't want to eat the whole enchilada as we would like to say or drop the chalupa On there. Okay Let's get rid of that. Okay as I think See if I got it here. Okay. Let's exit Continue in troubleshoot mode Okay Okay Okay Well, we're I'm continuing to get emails from you Hector about Bosch and how he lives in a $10 million home So Delete that ERF from Mimi We'll take a look at that. Yeah We'll take a look quickly okay Interplus Corporation Okay, first low is at five million shares and three point seven then three Till you got two well, it's certainly basing out, but again Basing out is not going higher and you want some kind of sign that says it's saying along with the market might be going higher You certainly want the market behind you on days like this and I don't see anything that changes that whatsoever Okay A question about Yeti if I changed my opinion on this company No, I still see a lot of ads And I said that was probably one of the big signals out there The once you started to see ads discounts on Yeti products It was going to be problematic now that wasn't from the top but as it was going sideways a month ago or six weeks ago we talked about those ads and I'm trying to remember his name's Peter or something or rather made a lot of money By just listening to his wife who'd go to the malls and he would go to He would go to the mall and check out the stores she liked to buy at Peter something Peter Lynch yeah, that's it. I couldn't remember so anyway I watch a lot especially I brought up in the tech insider all the discount ads finally on video cards and said that that was Probably an impending problem when you start seeing those So you don't have to be a genius a lot of times you just have to keep your eyes open But I wasn't a big fan of this to begin with I thought it was massively overpriced stocks and this isn't a company that you can really Hypnotize everybody into believing they should just pay twice as much like Apple You know, you've got a really kind of Pied Piper For that maybe Tesla, there's a company you could if you do it well enough You'll get a core amount of people that can believe just about anything But and yet he I don't know how you hypnotize everybody into it. It sits in the corner. You have to clean it up It's a big status symbol. I understand that but like I said, you can buy the same thing at wall Walmart or actually at Sam's I see a one that I think is 98% as good at holding Ice is yeti at half the price Same fiberglass shell very hard for me to get too excited out there The new man says He thinks the SLV May have bottomed out here. Well, you're certainly into a gap See if we go a little bit farther back here, can I let's go back to two years here You're back into this gap in the SLV a gap higher was 76 million shares. You got 29 Again, you probably have some support, but support doesn't mean you're going higher Just means you're not going lower and I'm not willing to to say that why there may be a 75 percent chance of higher It's not that much higher and a 25 percent chance of much lower Again when you look at stocks like Microsoft and Apple the people that said I'm gonna hold her Hold on for dear life like they did in bit con It's not a winning strategy and I want some kind of sign out here and Was it ace of base? I saw the sign I didn't see the sign no burning bush yet on either gold or silver Maybe the best thing you could hope for is sideways But I don't see anything out here that says that you want to be long silver or gold or anything until you get a sign and a signal and At this level I want a real burning bush. I want tablets coming down from the top of a mountain engraved I want stuff out there that is fairly unambiguous. I want bottle rockets. I want Pretty much. What else is that? Roman candles. I want fireworks. I want Something hang my head on. I'm not gonna go out and say that after we bust 4,000 there's anything better down here without a incredibly indelible signal Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the World from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor You were born to be TFNN educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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Just visit the front page of TFNN.com catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN And a question of whether a UFO would be a good enough signal and yes aliens Be a good signal out here in the market Anything out of the ordinary at the moment the only thing I hear is Dogs and cats living together real wrath of God stuff that kind of stuff Anyway, we're still down a little bit. I didn't look good We're down 67 points 200 on the NASDAQ and you're going into a Friday So the question is how many people are going to want to stick this out another couple of days if they're now at break even or maybe Broke about Mountain who knows where these folks are in their positions if they've read if they've Road them down here and believe the hype of hold on for dear life. You just never know but Are there signs of individual stocks? Yes It's just that 50% of any trade is the market and if you got a sick market It is just tough and I don't see anything out here that says anything's going to change Maybe we have to go into the weekend and just see something blistering But I wouldn't be surprised Seeing 3600 on this run Before we see some kind of turnaround now We kind of you know, we went to the extreme. We broke the extreme It just gets worse from there if you haven't listened to the first part of the show And that is the black swan events where nothing really makes sense any more Technicals don't tend to work except Finally when you get there, there's pretty good signal, but all the way through there aren't a lot of Things like headlights illuminating that sign way down the street You're just kind of looking at the next 10 feet and it all looks rather bleak So, yeah, have a great day. Just a thought This to shall pass Whether or not it's stocks in the stratosphere Ones in the gutter this to shall pass We'll be back tomorrow same bat channel same bat time and listen the next hour wrap it up with Tom Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to