 about it folks, let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. You can read Teddy's, Tiger Fork support folks. He puts a new issue out every Monday for subscribers. He puts out updates when warranted. He just hosted a subscriber webinar a couple weeks ago, 60 minute webinar for the second quarter market forecast. He talks about a bunch of great information in there. You get that when you sign up as well. Check it out on the front page of TFNN. You can subscribe, it's $97 folks. It comes with a 30 day money back guarantee. You don't like it for some reason. It doesn't fit into your trading day for whatever reason. And folks, you're gonna get value out of this newsletter, out of the webinar, but you cancel it. You get a money back guarantee and you get to keep all the value over that month and the webinar. And boy, we've got a great day to talk to our man, Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Yes, we do have some good stuff to talk about. So where do you wanna start on a pretty active day in the markets this morning? Well, we can start with the number. I think that the reaction in the markets is just showing you a really pump and dump rally, if you will, especially like in the bond market. So, I mean, the reality of the number is that, okay, we're just not increasing at the rate that we were, but we're still going full steam ahead with inflation. So, and I think you have to really watch the bond market over the next couple of days because a number like this, you would expect a reactionary rally. That's because just of a short-term blip of the release. As far as the overall reality, the market knows that there's something wrong. And I think you have to really put things in perspective. If you look at like, for instance, numbers like CPI and stuff, they're slowing, but look at where the yield curve is. I mean, the yields, they topped out back in October of 2022. And if you look at over the past say like month or two, we've been kind of buffering up against resistance, meaning yields have been pulling back. Now, that's all because you have artificial buying being brought on by the Fed and other central banks propping up the cash market. And the reality is, how is it after four rate hikes that the bonds are trading much higher than they were five months ago, six months ago, seven months ago? That doesn't make any sense. And it also, think about what it's doing to the banks. Banks borrow money from the Fed, correct? That's how they make loans. Now, the rate that they're paying is much higher now than it was six, seven months ago. Now, if you're paying more for money, the banks are and the yields are retracting, going the opposite way than they should be going, then how much money are banks making, especially when there's a banking crisis? So there's a lot of tailwinds. I think we're gonna catch from this over the next couple of months especially. And I'd be very leery of getting caught up in this frenzy thinking that inflation is stopping, yields are gonna stay low and even possibly go lower. I mean, anything can happen, but it doesn't make any sense. Mathematically, and I think you're gonna see more and more where this is gonna give a boost to the dollar short-term over the next few months. And when it happens, it's gonna be a violent reaction as well. Yeah, you got to the dollar. It's pretty interesting, man. The dollar, it's interesting. We're pushing kind of that low of January. You've talked to us about the different pairings and the impact, and this is so Euro dependent and so forth, but it is interesting. We're pushing those levels. And the market reaction today, we've talked about it before. I know you talk about the possibility, man, that we get some hikes continuing. It's always interesting on mornings like this, Teddy, this is my own take, where you see the headlines from great institutions that I love, man, like the Journal, like Bloomberg, talking about inflation easing, and then you get into the core number that's at 5.5%. And we are 14 months into a hiking cycle. It's kind of amazing that you get the easing notion. And I think this is something like the 10th decline in overall CPI. But as you know, man, that crude market, things get shifted around dramatically when you start bringing energy into things. The core number, 5.5, I was talking about in the beginning of my program, like five months ago, we were at about six, and that's near the peak. And so if you're just dropping marginally from a peak, man, we got a long way to go, because if we can't drop from six to five quickly, what's it gonna look like when we're trying to go on from four to three, let alone from three to two? So we find out. We have a long journey ahead of us. And as traders, it's great, folks, because you see in the volatility everywhere, whether you brought up bonds, I was looking at bonds when you were walking us through that. I was looking at the dollar index, just magnificent moves, man, in both directions. Can we jump to crude a little bit since I just brought up some of the headlines, man? We've had some interesting action. In crude, we hit 63 bucks after I talked to you last week, last Wednesday, and then from there, we've popped back kinda into that $72 range. What do you think of the price of crude? Okay, well, you gotta realize we came off of, we hit that low last week. We were coming off a very big slide, over a period of a couple weeks, crude dropped $20 some dollars. So the bounce off the low from last week, I think is very normal to have a correction back to where we're at. So I think that the market was overdone on the slide last week. I don't think that you're gonna see crude trending lower. I mean, I don't see us going down to lower six, holding lower sixties, let alone going into the fifties. I mean, the only thing that would bring that on would be a totally decrease in demand. Well, how is it we're gonna have a decrease in demand when we know we're coming into the summer? And if the travel and leisure business is really doing as well as they're saying, that means people are traveling. That means there's a demand for gas and for oil. So that part, I don't see really trending. I see it maybe in the choppy wide range trade for the next couple of months, that's possible. Maybe especially if there's some sort of increase in production on our end. And that would really be the only thing I think that would really get us to trend lower. Obviously, if they open up the floodgates and take away all these rules and regulations they put in place a couple of years ago. So for oil, I'd be very cautious. I'd be a buyer of dips, especially when you have extremes like what we had going down last week. I mean, when you have a $20 slide in crude, and it wasn't really because it wasn't lack of demand driven, so that's where I have to say that you have to be careful with it and look for more potential to the upside. And it is interesting, man. Just pulling it up on the chart. I mean, yeah, we got a little bit of an ex exacerbated low in March and exacerbated low in May. I got above 82 bucks, but this thing's almost been a consolidation since last November between only about like 75, 72 and 82. Just remarkable considering how volatile things have been overall. And since November crude just kind of been trapped. You know, you got outside of that area a little bit. But as you mentioned, you've kind of recoiled. And I just put a Fibonacci number on that pullback. Yeah, from 83 bucks down to 63. And where do we just pop to? About a 50% retracement was all it was. Up to 73 dollars. How about the end? Can we talk a little bit again? Because I know that's always interesting for our subscribers. What do you think of the end? Pulling back today, 134.39. I think that that's all because of the number. You know, this was a very, when you have CPI is one of the biggest economic numbers that you have coming out on a monthly basis. And it's a very big interest rate number. So excuse me, interest rates drive as a functional pricing mechanism for the dollar or any currency. So when you have a big rally like this, meaning a pullback in yields, the dollar gets whacked by all currencies. You know, so that's where, I mean, if you look at it, the pound made new daily highs, the euro's coming off a new swing low, you know? And it's not, everything's retreating. Like the yen right now is close to its lows for the day. You know, you saw the Aussie breakout to the upside, but this is all because of that number, you know? So if everyone really believes that inflation's disappearing or something like that, then it's sustainable. But this is just a news-driven reactive day. And that's where you gotta be careful where it's where you buy the rumor, sell the fact. So you got the pop on the number, you know? I mean, you look at the euro, it only rallied like, what was it? Something like 60 pips today off that number. That's not a big move, you know? I pulled it up and he said at the euro and then I pulled up the pound, man. Quite the charts for sure. So the yen's going sideways to higher. No wishing, no hoping, no praying, right? I love that class, man. Teddy, thanks so much, man. We'll talk to you next week. Have a great one, man. Thanks, Tommy. You take care. Thanks, man.