 Welcome back folks, it's out. Dow right now down 80, we get the Nasdaq off 308, S&Ps are off 50. Let's get over to our man, Tim Ord, as we kick off 2024. And don't forget, folks, you can reach Tim every trading day at Ord. www.ord-oracle.com. That's www.ord-oracle.com. Tim Ord, happy new year. Yeah, happy new year to you too. So actually, I sent over some charts. Oh, I got them all. This is going to be a beauty, folks. I can't wait to hear this one, man. Right. Did you get chart number seven, though? I did. Yes, I did. All right, all right. So about, I don't know, 10 minutes ago, I can't remember. 10 minutes ago, I sent out a notice or an update, I guess. We're going along on the SBX on tonight's close. And the only reason why I'm doing that is it's chart seven here. Okay, that's why I was so excited to have you. Well, I'm always excited to have you on, but as soon as I saw that come across, I says, okay, let me see what this is now. Okay. This is kind of obscure stuff, but anyhow, it worked over the years. The bottom window is a 10-day arms. Okay, Tim, I'm sorry. Which chart do you want me to start with, seven? Yeah, chart with seven. Okay, here we go. There we go. Okay. All right. Anyhow, I sent out an alert just a few minutes ago. Yes. And the reason why I sent this alert is because of this chart. And there's some other stuff going on on the bigger timeframes that we'll cover it. But usually, if you get to train up around 1.2, you're getting close to some sort of a low. Okay. That doesn't mean it has to be the same day, whatever. But what really has worked over the past, actually several years, is when the markets up five days in a row, or six or seven, but at least up five days in a row, the markets usually higher, 83% of the time within five days. So anyhow, we've been, we were up five days going into December 28th, and we fell back a couple of days. But it shouldn't be the final high. I see. So I'm thinking either today's the low, or possibly tomorrow, turn around Tuesday. Okay. But normally when you get five days up in a row, the market will be higher within five days. And a lot of times it's over a percent, sometimes a percent and a half. So I'm thinking the next rally up, we're probably going to hit new highs and stuff. Okay. That's the reason why I went long on tonight's close. Wherever it's nice close, this is where I'm long. So I like how that works out. Okay. Good. Good. I get it. Right. Because we certainly, we certainly don't have fear in the market right now. Right? It's not a lot. I'm thinking what the pattern is going to form here. You know, if you do a Fibonacci relationship today, on today's decline, we're over 61.8% to the downside. So I'm thinking this is probably three drives to a top pattern. So we only have two lows. If today or tomorrow is a low, and we had a low back on, you know, that red candle there. Yes. You know what? Seven days ago, that's low one. Today's low two. Yeah. Then we make a higher high. Then that'd be three drives to a higher high. Then a lot of times that's why I'm thinking what's going to happen here. Okay. It's not going to be a long-term rise up. I think it's going to be a higher high than we're going to probably start entering into some sort of a consolidation phase through January. Which would make sense. No, that's pretty cool. Okay, I got it. I got it. Okay. All right. So it is maybe a 2-3% trade. So nothing huge. Yep. Okay, start chart number one. Okay. We've gone over this so many times. That's all right. That's all right. But it's just a kind of review. Yep. On October 27th, we hit the summation index at 813. And for a bullish, immediate term triggered that to occur, the summation has to go below minus 700, which is like a selling climax. Yep. Then within two, within around two months, it has to go above plus 1,000 to show a sign of strength. And that's what happens at immediate term lows. And I marked all those immediate term lows going back to 2007, wherever it is. And on December 27th, exactly two months, we got above plus 1,000. And this is, the date there is, looks like December 28th, whatever, and we're at 1,078. But you know, there's a high probability the next 12 months will be up because of this indicator. Yes. And they really work pretty, pretty good. Has there been failures? Not many. But if you go back 50 years, you probably could find some. Okay. But going back to the last, what, 10, 15 years, there's none. So, Sonia, that's bullish air midterm. Let's flip to chart two. Okay. Chart two, the middle window is the SPX VIX ratio. And it kind of shows what's going on in here. We're starting to get our divergence. And the pink areas show the times when the SPX was making higher highs in this ratio is making lower highs. And it happened back in December of 2022. You got a minor high when market went down. You got another one July of this year, late July, early August, where the SPs were going higher. The ratio kind of went sideways. But if you look at the VIX, which is the top window, it actually did make lower highs, or higher, lower high. So, yeah, it was making higher lows as the SPs were making higher highs. And that's the convergence. And we got one right now where the SPs over the last couple of weeks is making higher highs. And this ratio is also making lower highs. So that's why I'm saying probably the next rally on the SPs, we hit another new high and this ratio does not hit a new high. Then we're probably going to have a sense of a worthwhile consolidation in July or in January. How big a one? Yeah, I don't know. We'll have to wait and see. You know, I don't have a crystal ball. It's pretty interesting today, Tim. We had the VIX get up to 14-23, but it has already given up. It's only a 13-44 right now. It gave up quite a bit of it, man. So it's kind of intriguing, actually. Yeah, I watched that too. It really blasted open on this morning. It really went up. Then it kind of came back. It's still up. There's a little divergence here. Sometimes I play these short-term trades, and sometimes you get spanked a little bit. So I don't know. I think I'm going to be all right in this one, but I think it's a 2-3% trade. So I'm thinking I'm taking it. If it's 1% or less, I think I'll use that. No, no. I get it. I can tell you, I'm surprised that, you know, I mean, the Dow Industries actually went positive today at one point. So it's like, there's not that much. You know, the S&P, well, the Nasdaq's a different animal, man. I mean, the apple's taken the Nasdaq's health in a monster way. But, you know, the Dow Industries went green. It's like, really? But it did. It's red now, but it went green. Yeah, there's not a lot of stocks in it. Who knows? I don't even pay attention to that thing anymore. Nasdaq's kind of important. But, hey, this is the SPX VIX ratio is giving kind of a warning sign. You want to go to chart three? We're almost out of time. I know. Yeah, we'll get, I get to chart three here. Yeah, let's just, let's just wait for a second. We'll start chart three folks as soon as we come back. And don't forget, you can get hold of Tim. You can get his newsletter at www.aud.rd-oracle.com. That's www.aud-oracle.com. We have the Dow Industries right now at 75. Nasdaq off 314. S&P's off 51. Tim and I are going to be coming right back, folks. Welcome back, folks. It's Tim Oetomo, Brian. We do appreciate your growling and prowling with us out here. We have the Dow Industries trading down 77. Nasdaq's off 314. S&P's down 51. And I have, let's see. I think I can get chart three up, Tim. Is that right? Yeah, chart three. Yes, okay. That's what I have. Yes. All right. So chart two is the SPX VIX ratio. Chart three is the VIX to VVIX ratio. Yes. And these ratios on the VIX seem to work pretty well. And it kind of gives you a heads up. The time that, what's going on right now? The S&P's are making higher high. If you look at back in July with that previous pink area. Yes. The S&P's are making higher highs. That ratio, which is going straight up. We got something similar here going here. We got the S&P's making higher highs and this ratio is making lower highs. So something's coming at us probably in the next couple of weeks, whatever. I don't think it's today. I don't think this is the one to catch to the short side here. Okay. Because I think as of chart seven, we're thinking about, but yeah, this is a warning sign that we're probably heading into some sort of a consolidation sometime. You know, it's starting to look like maybe mid-January or something. You know, not this week, maybe next week. I don't know what to wait and see. So that's two different ratios showing kind of a sign. Yes. That January may not be an up month. I'll put it that way. So let's go to chart four. Okay. And now this is the VIX ratio also, but it's on the weekly timeframe. Right. So this looks at the bigger trend. So, you know, if we do get a January pullback sometime to say second half of January, but this ratio here, you know, it's not showing any divergence at all. So that next decline we may have in January at some point, you probably want to buy it because the bigger trend, according to the weekly VIX ratio is making lower lows as the SP is making higher highs and that's the positive divergence. So we're not having any major divergence on the bigger timeframe yet. This kind of goes along with our, you know, the summation index hitting below minus 700, rallying to plus 1,000. Yes. This is another way to look at the market on the bigger timeframe. Okay. Nice. Yeah, so we get a flap in the face a second week in January. This is one of the reasons why you should probably buy it. Nice. Because this ratio is not showing any deterioration on the bigger timeframe. So that means bullish. So we've got five minutes left. All right. Yep. Let's go to chart five. Okay. And it's hard to make charts really legible. And I try to break them down where you can kind of look at and see what's going on. And this chart, you know, the middle window is the Sprout Gold Trust Discount Premium ratio. Yes. And so a Sprout Gold Trust is actually you can buy physical gold through this trust. And so every time, and the middle window there shows a premium and discounts on what you can buy for. And right now, anything below minus two going back to, let's think about 2018, you're at a short term low for GDX. Wow. That's pretty cool. Okay. Yeah. So that's the red lines. All those dotted red lines across there. And the blue lines are times when you get above zero. And I just, as you're speaking to him, I just put up the Bloomberg with it and live right now, it's minus 2.396 percent. Okay. Cool. I got it. Nice. Wow. Right. Right. So I bought some options. Probably should have a way to look closer to the low here. But usually this is pretty close to the lows. I'm not saying the exact day of the lows. But you know me in the vicinity. So if you look at GDX and all those red lines, you can see where they came in at. It came in the October low pretty good. Came in that looks like a June low, maybe a July low of last year. The one in the previous year didn't work out. But they worked out about 80, you know, better than 80 percent of the time. It picked out the COVID low. It got down to like minus 3 percent below. So you know, if you get these crashes, this premium thing's pretty good. Yeah. This is great to know, man. That's pretty wild. Yeah. Pretty cool. Yeah. Yeah. So actually if you go back and look in that shaded pink area there. Yeah. That stayed below minus 2 for like six months. Okay. So I'm thinking that was a significant. A big one. Yeah. Yeah. A big one because the sentiment was so bearish at that time, even though the market rallied. Nobody believed it was going to go anywhere. Yep. So I'm thinking that was a major low that probably won't be tested for years. And you know, it's amazing too, Tim, and folks, is that when people get bearish on gold, they really get bearish, man. Yeah. Yeah. According to this chart, you know. Yes. No, that's why I'm digging it. Right. Yeah. The market rally is now it ain't going to go very far and they just kept rallying. Yeah. So it's pretty much, I think the market is significant near midterm low or actually I think it's a longer term low. I'm thinking some indicators. Yeah. Here, I flipped to chart six. Okay. Here we go. I got it. Right. The monthly, okay. The bottom window is the weekly cumulative advanced decline for GDX. Yep. The bottom window up is the cumulative advanced or up down volume for GDX. So it looks at the internals of what's going on in GDX. The gold stocks are in GDX. Looks, you know, how many going up, how many, how much volume on the upstocks and all this other stuff. So you want both those squiggly lines actually trending up. And I put a Bollinger Band on them. And normally when they're above a Bollinger Band, you got to trend that's really going up. The bottom window is advanced decline. You're at the Bollinger Band right now, but the next one up, you're still a way above, not way above, but you're above the Bollinger Band. As long as those two indicators on the weekly timeframe can stay above the Bollinger Band, I don't have this chart shown, but the monthly really dictates the really big trends. And I have a monthly chart of the cumulative advanced decline and up down volume. And right now, both those on the monthly timeframe are heading up, but still below the mid-Bollinger Band. And once the monthly gets above the mid-Bollinger Band, it's really stable. It doesn't whip back and forth. So once it gets above the Bollinger Band, it's a lot of time it just stays above the Bollinger Band for months and sometimes years. So I like to have this GDX market actually at least hold steady, not perform to the market over the next probably about 30 days. The only reason why I'm saying 30 days, it'll probably push the monthly cumulative advanced decline and monthly up-down volume above their mid-Bollinger Band. And when you get that, that pretty much is an all-clear sign, probably a release over the next 12 months that the mark's going to be heading higher. So the weeklys are the intermediate term times. It can give you a signal that could last several months. But the monthlys can signal that you can get rise for the year or even longer. And so I'm hoping that this month GDX remains relatively strong if not heading higher. We get a lot to look forward for in 2024. You got to love it. Yeah. Well, Tim, this is always a pleasure, of course. And, you know, folks, you got something live here today, man. That's the bottom line. You got live as to why he wanted to, you know, basically thread this needle and go long. Tim, you have a great one. Safe one. We look forward to speaking to you on Thursday. All right. Have a great one. Stay right there, folks. Come right back.