 The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is just around the corner and oh, buddy Do we got some fun games and some fun to DFS plays to discuss? We're gonna break down all four games here and let you know which players we are targeting for a daily fantasy Across the Saturday only slate the Sunday only slate the Saturday to Sunday slate break it all down and get you ready Hopefully win some money this week over on FanDuel. This is the heat check fantasy podcast By number fire that's right here on the FanDuel podcast network and number fire calm. My name is Jim Sannis. I am a Senior writer and analyst for number fire calm. All right, I do it all right. I give up So we we have this show live on YouTube and typically how it works is I will start the intro song first Before we go live and then press go live so that the intro is already rolling when we go on I forgot to press the intro song today because for covering the spread I do go live first then the intro song they try to mesh them up really well for this one I don't you know, I try it doesn't matter when the intro starts. So There is like I'm gonna ask them to scrub this but there is on the the YouTube version currently the first second is me and Brandon Like, uh, what just happened? facing So we're off to a blazing start. I Think this is the heat check fantasy podcast not covering the spread I am Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire. That's Brandon Gadoula He is the senior managing editor of number fire comm I think Brandon. Can you confirm that most of those facts are at least somewhat true? I Think it's based in reality. Yeah, I think that's I think that's good and we don't need to scrub it's like a it's like the Marvel and credits just at the beginning a little bit extra but like okay, so I embed the YouTube video in number on number fire site like I'll embed it in the post Usually I will skip to the the timestamp where like the intro ends and we come on Do I not do that this time so people press play on number fire and see like our shocked faces immediately went when it rolls I Think that'd be good Is this just a long long con to force people to watch the YouTube version instead of listening to the audio version? Is this just like a way to juice our YouTube numbers look man I'll only you could know all I know is I was still seeing our faces and I saw the the red live box that comes up and You know that that's the thing that we use to record stuff And I was like Maybe maybe I'm confused because I don't I don't like run stuff But then when I saw your confusion, I realized what happened Yeah, so you can actually if you're watching YouTube you can go back to that point and you can see me staring down Brandon looks frightened and is staring directly at the screen and then it and then the intro rolls So you don't see my shock because my shock went away or Didn't occur until after the intro thing was rolling But if you want a little Easter egg that will hopefully be gone Later on and is no not relevant to any of you anymore I'll screen cap and tweet it out before we before we scrub it from the plane of existence What percent of people do you think are just skipping ahead to when we're talking about the slate? Yeah, I mean I do skip ahead in podcasts at times So like that 15 second burst on Spotify, you know, I don't blame them So anyway, we're gonna break down all four games for the divisional round Let you know where we are seeing value on fan dual across each slate Let you know our priority plays aka Christian McCaffrey and get you set for this weekend But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast Feeds at the right one this time wherever you get your podcast because we had the daily ISO every weekday with Tom Beckio PGA DFS podcasts every Tuesday as well We have these NFL podcasts through the Super Bowl USC for big slaves lost and swam all in this same feat So go search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and while you're there If you like what you hear leave us a rating and review the 2022 NFL season is winding down and fable and GMC continue to bring you the GMC Sierra mountain climber Pickham a free to play contest series that gives you a chance to win a share of ten thousand dollars in fable site credit every week Courtesy of GMC here's how it works every week during the NFL season You'll have a chance to answer questions around that week's games the more questions You answer correctly the higher up that mountain you will move if during any week you answer every question correctly for a perfect score You will reach the summit and win your share of ten thousand dollars in site credit The contest series is now lives at the fable comm slash free slash contest slash GMC today and start climbing that mountain Fandall comm slash free slash contest slash GMC For the GMC Sierra mountain climbing climber Mountain climber pick them Brandon You for this divisional round. I give up What is your slate over here for the divisional round? For like the four game slate. What is the biggest key to you whether it be for the four game slate? Game slate Biggest key for me is scoring points, baby. Okay, choose your own adventure. We'll let you guide the podcast from here on out scoring points but More Helpfully these are both two game slates as we know and we have the four game slate But figuring out where you are willing to Divest from the most obvious place there are Especially on the Saturday slate, there are Pretty obvious core level plays that stand out from a process standpoint just above everybody else Travis Kelsey is in a lot of the optimizers You see Travis ETN so you get the Travis sack Darius Slayton as well in a lot of optimizers So like those are all really good process plays and we're gonna talk about why we like them too I mean, I don't want to speak for you, but presumably you like all three of those plays. Yeah, you know, there are a few more but to like to what degree are you willing to differentiate from the most obvious path in order to Try to get a leg up in terms of you know playing in tournaments if you're just doing like head-to-head Competitions, you know with your your friends or just against other people that's different, but we always sort of take a Modified approach where like we talk about the best process plays but then spin that in terms of how we can differentiate We're gonna get a lot of that on this the Sunday slate as well with Josh Allen specifically like he pops as in all the optimizers makes a ton of sense from a process standpoint, but like To what degree are you willing to differentiate and I think you just ask yourself how willing am I to be? You know to go against the green. I think that's the the main takeaway for me It's very similar for me except instead of going against the grain it's going against projections because projections serve a lot of value and For the most part, they are very good and as a result of that people will follow projections because I think the public is pretty good in 2023 at playing DFS and they know projections have a lot of value so the key is identifying Players and situations that projections may not encapsulate fully So to me that means which guys are undersold by projections basically and that list is Christian McCaffrey Tony Powerhead Arias Tony I think that those three guys specifically have roles that are Difficult to project because if you project them the way they've been used recently They're not gonna pop as much like McCaffrey You were showing me four separate sites for optimals McCaffrey wasn't too because he's very good And you know, I think that that he was in two of those four But like I think he should be in four out of four because his role is hard to project but the production in his most relevant sample is through the roof and Caterious Tony, you know, you're kind of making an assumption that the cheese kept him in bubble wrap for the posties I think that's a very fair assumption and Honestly, probably what I would have done if I were in their shoes So I bacon a roll projection or roll bump up for him, but it's hard to project same thing for Tony Pollard had his highest snap rate on Monday night that he's had in a game with Zeke led actor this entire year and Might have been masked by the score a little bit His first half snap rate was not super high either So I think it kind of flew a bit under the radar So I think that those three guys are players who will be undersold by baseline projections And as a result may not be rostered as heavily as I think they should Based on their upside and potential. Is it risky? Yeah, because betting against projections is typically a losing bet They're very good But I think that with those guys Specifically knowing what their upside is should they get bigger roles? I think I'm going to do that So it does require Some risk it does require some like I don't know Like arrogance to assume you can be projections on my part. No, it's Yeah, it's not arrogance. It's it's understanding and this is a big part of like what I do When I look at everything is Projections are good. You can go through and build your own projections but If you do that you are either Spinning your wheels because you're trying to recreate like a combination of what's already out there. Yeah Or you're like way off consensus And if there if consensus says one thing And you're way off that's either really good or really bad, right? so what what matters more is looking at consensus projections and Understanding what a range of outcomes looks like from there And so, you know, Josh Allen's gonna have a higher projection What does that mean in terms of how likely he is to reach certain thresholds that kind of stuff? And that's like not everyone you don't have to have that if you don't do that yourself. It's not like That You're fine. Just think about just because someone's projected for five more points Does not mean that they will score five more points We all know that but it can be a little bit scary to go against that Especially on a small slate because it feels like you're just building bad lineups otherwise But that's not necessarily the case if You're looking at the right data I think I'd rephrase it as having confidence in your ability to diagnose Fluid situations and I think that that's something that I can do Um, am I right? Not always. No, I get things wrong all the time But I think that we need to find ways to do that for this slate So let's start things off here by talking about the jaguars at the chiefs This is still at eight and a half right now at vandal sportsbook. It looks like it's going to get to nine Probably pretty soon potentially even bigger than that. So eight and a half for now Chiefs favorite over the jags total in this game is 52 and a half injuries here all on the chief side michael hardman seems unlikely to play after missing practice both tuesday and wednesday sky moore should be back for whatever sky moore's role will be in the postseason Clyde edwards you layer was designated to return He has not been activated yet And we also don't know if he'll be activated before the game And we also don't know if he'll have a role if he is active for this one I'm kind of assuming no based on the role he had before his injury. So I'm not super concerned about CEH returning here for the chiefs in terms of how he impacts jerick mckinnon and zapacheco So brandy when you look at this game jags at chiefs What are you seeing here as being the overriding thought? What we're doing with travis kelsey He is in all the optimal lineups that that i'm seeing I understand the case for it because If travis kelsey has a travis kelsey game and you do not have travis kelsey exposure You're i'm not saying you're toast But it's going to be really hard to overcome that But I think you can also make that case with a seco on barkley relative to the other running backs on the slate Maybe like a j brown Relative to the other receivers in terms of what his true ceiling is But then also the two quarterbacks with patrick moholms and jalen herds compared to lorence and daniel jones So I think everything starts in this game with How we're handling travis kelsey and that doesn't have to be you're either playing him or not And there's no in between there's probably gonna be in between for virtually everyone but Is he someone you're like locking in or is he someone you're prioritizing at the expense of one of the two quarterbacks the expense of seco on barkley Where are you with travis kelsey? That's where I think this game starts Well, I think that it's you can get in a moholms kelsey stack I don't think you can I tried to do moholms kelsey seco on and It was really tough So the question is would you rather go moholms kelsey or I guess herds kelsey? Either way because they're basically the same salary or would you rather get seco on in there and Looking at the way the slate breaks down I think you can make a strong case for going seco on plus goddard's But I'd want that to be in a herds lineup because it implies that game is higher scoring. So I Feel like to me kelsey is like Not someone I must have locked in but if you give me one lineup, he's probably gonna be in there One lineup for this saturday only slater should specify. Um I do think that goddard is intriguing. I do think that evan ingram is worthwhile as well So you have other routes you can go But I think if I have one lineup travis kelsey is decently likely he's a favorite. He's like, you know minus 150 to be in it. I would say so then presumably seco on barkley will not be In your single lineup on a saturday, then I don't think I can get both. So yeah, I'd prioritize kelsey over seco on by a smidge That's interesting to me Especially coming from you. Yeah So like, you know, you can there's a lot of different samples to look after the chiefs and we'll probably differ but like since week week 16 with like Tony back to some degree Travis kelsey's target share is 27 and a half percent. But his red zone target shares only 11.8 percent the red zone share for kelsey's been The real concern because we know that he has true yardage upside and we know that he can have Touchdowns from outside the red zone big plays but The probability of a multi touchdown game from him Seems to be down and I think that yeah If he gets us a travis kelsey like 27 point game Very much worth it if There's if it ate like at 8,000 There's not a whole lot of room for error for him to be just fine and get you like 15.6 Even if every other tight end gets you like eight, that's not like a huge enough gap necessarily so I think the restrictions of what he does the cap the rest of the lineup is Substantial enough where I don't think I would get to him in a single entry lineup Or not not a single entry but like my main if I'm building one lineup for the day I think I'd probably go to sake one. Okay, and I think that's that's fair I think the reason why I gravitate towards kelsey is this is actually a spot where I do think the projections are handling things Correctly is a tight end looking at the four game slate Kelsey's yardage projection is about 30 yards higher than every single tight end touchdown projection is in line with alice goddard, but like I I don't care personally about the red zone role in that span because he's had Two separate three touchdown games this year. I know that like logically Travis kelsey can get a lot of red zone work So although he didn't get in that span I think that I wouldn't project him to have a lower red zone role going forward. So kelsey. I think is is I think he's worth prioritizing part of it also is a little bit lower on sake one maybe than other stuff maybe Just because I respect the Eagles a lot. I respect the Eagles defense a lot I love sake one. Um, but his salary at At a $8 to $500 is very high I think the question that I would the way I'd phrase it is this is which position sucks more Do you think running back sucks more or tight end? I think that's the most compelling argument for using sake one is I think that running back on the saturday only slate kind of Sucks outside etn. So I think that that'd be a good pitch for ease and sake one is that it means you don't have to force in mile sanders jarek Pacheco in that second running back slot I think that's a good pitch for going sake one And it probably to me would be the most convincing argument for ease and sake one over kelsey Yeah, I think the opportunity cost is pretty large there. Uh, I like dallas goddard We can talk about him once we get to that game in a little bit more detail. I like evan ingram, which we can talk about here um anytime we want but I think that those are both viable plays and I know it's scary to be like low on kelsey. That's why I'm not saying i'm fading kelsey like I don't like him It's just we got to be we got to be pragmatic and we can't say we love jalen herds in my homes We love sake one. We love kelsey. Let's get all of them in there Doesn't really work unless you're just playing The bottom barrel value plays everywhere else and maybe that's the optimal like maybe those that's how it works out, but I don't necessarily think that That's the right way to go unless You're making the case that like okay jalen herds. Maybe still not a hundred percent aj browns not gonna have a big game Christian kirk like they're going to spread the ball around enough where kirk's not going to be great So the actual like the actual difference makers will be You know one of the two quarterbacks or not But like sake one and like maybe maybe kelsey is like it's like we talk Especially in the playoffs with smaller slates Telling yourself the narrative figuring out how you think things will go If you don't see a big game coming from like aj brown If you talk yourself into like if if you know you're you're more like jim and say this sake one Is going to get a little bit limited then yeah that that's the case to be hiring kelsey. So I guess like none of this is like earth shattering But it's important to like think about why you are or are not super high on someone Yeah, and I think that talking through the The fact that running back is difficult That's moved my kelsey and my one line up from minus 150. I would say to minus 130 minus 125 somewhere in there So still more likely but that's a I think a compelling argument for not going with him What about the other uh chiefs past catchers here? So let's talk about a couple of potential Really fun value plays in this game and those to me are travis etn And kaderious tony etn comes in at 6800 dollars etn's role in that A wild card comeback very good 90 snap rate in that one Um good yardage and in the games he's had a full games. He's played as a feature back 97.2 yards and scrimmage per game for 6800 dollars take that every time cheese rush defense Not that good despite chris jones being a phenomenal phenomenal defensive player as far as kaderious tony again It comes back to assuming that his role increases and I think that that will happen here because He is a he is the most talented non mahomes player on this team right now He his salary comes in at 5800 dollars or 5700 dollars somewhere in there tony 58 and We've seen him When he's been on the field get a lot of work whether that be as a runner or a pass catcher So that's what allows me to feel good about getting to at least one of sakewater. Kelsey is knowing that I have I think two tremendous value plays in this game an etn and kaderious tony Where do you come in on those two guys specifically? Yeah, I mean etn so I guess I guess one of the things that I probably should have said is my Slate overview instead was like how heavily we're waiting the wild card round for teams that Did play in the wild card round and for me it's very very heavily Agreed to the point that I basically just pulled up what they did last week because there's no reason to Save anyone. You're not like trying to figure out You know this and that but etn. Yeah, you already mentioned the 90 snap rate 20 carries the receiving role not Not really what you want it to be one target For 12 yards, but he did run 29 routes and as someone who was invested in his rushing prop I noticed a lot of swing passes that Might have what like may as well have been targets, so you know a little bit A little bit nicer there tend to know that he's getting like some Extended handoffs however you want to phrase that so etn at 68 understandably The optimizers like him at the low salary, but I don't even know if that's necessarily like high enough Because a 90 snap rate at a sub 7000 salary would get us going crazy on a full slate, but on a two game slate promising rushing matchup etn Going to be someone I lock in I don't think that it gets not nearly as high of a variance position as tight end with like travis calcy So if I'm if I'm locking in one player on this the two game slate on saturday, it's going to be travis etn with tony Yeah, it's it's a it's a bet on a roll shift or a roll increase. I was actually trying to pull up his um opportunity per snap rate with the team just because um I think that's a like kind of an underutilized number overall, but Uh, he is at Are you at cadarius? 21.1% That is that's like tyreek. That's pretty high. Yeah. Kelsey's at like 18 percent juju's at 13.7 percent So he's getting like a carrier target on You know one out every five snaps. So I was listening to uh slide aside I was listening to the athletic football show last week and natus was talking about how jamal agnew and that stat is at like 30 percent So like he plays like 10 snaps a game, but when he's out there, he's probably getting the ball Yeah, I mean there are just some players like that. Isaiah pacheco has a pretty high rate as well He's at 52 percent since week seven. So like, you know, these are You could maybe nitpick the roll itself in terms of like snaps but There are differences in terms of certain players and I think that even if tony doesn't get in 85 percent snap rate Which he's not going to we're gonna see him get carries. We're gonna see him get I don't know that he won't to be fully honest I don't think we'll get quite there. I think that they'll still run out mark as far as scantling just to run down the field a lot, but um Like I think there's a legit chance if he gets an every down roll his salary should be 73 and he's 58 if if his role stays the same should be about 56 55 Um, so it should be lower if he stays the same But I think that there is a very real chance and a lot of upside if he gets any roll shift at all Yeah, so I said i'm locking in etn And just not going to worry about it because Pivoting away from that doesn't make a lot of sense to me unless you go the case of Well, they're gonna get gonna get blown out from the start. Well, guess what they were caught blowing up from the start Last game you played nine percent of the snaps. I know the targets weren't there But again, like those swing passes were there. So Um, how high how high would you be on tony in terms of like your your own exposure rate? Um, it's gonna flirt with 100. Yeah It might not get there because I might actively be like, okay Duplicate this line up put marvin jones in or whatever because I assumed eras late and we're already being there Put in marvin jones someone else just differentiate Um, so tony will be flirting with 100. I think the downside of going 100 on a like on a value play Goes goes down because you're not really You know if you if you go 100 travis kelsey and he gets you 12 points Right That's hard to overcome if if tony gets us four on a two game slate is someone else replacing that in the same range Yeah, so so as long as you're using that salary to have to roster guys with upside then then yeah, correct That's where I'm at. Are you Am I too high at him or are you on tony specifically? You're you're higher on him than I am I would not I would not put him in like the 73 range Um, I had a full roll Well, okay, but like we're taking uh, if if a lot of players had a full 90 snap rate roll Then they they would be seeing substantial jumps. I don't know if I can really project that But like he didn't he didn't have a better projection than juju Who has a full roll and he's like 66 Yeah So that's kind of the guiding light I use that I think the hang up for me is I can't just like inject a In every down roll for tony I can't with on my head. I have a team that uses literally Like seven tight ends just to rotate in guys and yeah, but you can't you can't keep no agree off the field No agree is amazing. This is not sarcasm. By the way, I'd love a new agree. I know So we gotta just want to make that clear. I love him. Uh, we got to talk uh Cheese running backs and we got to talk jaguars pass catchers talk me through cheese running backs right now so I I initially just pulled up a sample like since week 13 with like juju healthy because he's Sort of a big part of the offense, but um, he's the third running back Uh, since then like jerry mccanon's it over 18 fandal points per game because he's scoring a ton Especially through the air But he's at a 35 percent opportunity per snap rate and that's in that split. Uh, isiah pacheco is like almost Not almost doubled but like he's at 55 percent With gara pacheco Like that's that's crazy. I actually have pacheco with a better expected fandal points per game output Uh than jerry mccanon that being said I really do like jerry. He gets a lot of high leverage looks. He gets receptions, which we know add up, you know, basically Uh, one target is worth about two carries in terms of expected fandal points Gets a he has a great red zone role That itself is what lowers me on because I'd say like, oh, well, I'll rotate I'll pivot down to pacheco because the role is still Good for a two game slate But I can't guarantee that he won't just be pulled off the field inside the 20 And if he if he isn't and he scores he's going to be like a strong play at his salary, but I'm high on mccanon specifically because of the red zone role and I don't think that's going to go away Yeah, I think for me if I assumed like if I play things straight and assume they keep their same roles Pacheco is a better play uh in ivy games with ceh either out of limited I omitted week 18 because they mixed in rojo more there and I don't think they'll do that Here, uh, but in those games pacheco 85.8 yards in scrimmage per game, uh, mccanon 64.8 Red zone for pacheco 28.2 red zone share mccanon 23.5 so Edges for pacheco and bowl The reason I can't say Pacheco is definitely one mccanon definitely two is I think the matchup is better for mccanon because The jags are good against the rush now you look back to their first game against the jags pacheco played a lot But I think that was a game where they got a pretty big pretty early And we're able to control things they might that might happen again Um, but I don't think we'll see a foot off the gas cheese team Foot on the gas to me implies warmer cannon. So I would say they are truly dead even Is my assumption going into this game? So I'll probably have a pretty equal Share of both honestly and That sounds wishy-washy, but I think that's the way I want to play things here So the jaguars allow the highest target per route rate To running backs in the nfl. They've not yet a lot of receiving touchdown According to my data, but I don't care about that. Um, so we can see a lot of mccanon out of the backfield and you know six seven targets a couple carries red zone looks like I have mccanon over pacheco, but I do like both 10 lineups between the two of them. I have five five. What do you have? Maybe six four, uh, let's share I agree that okay. Let's talk about the jags pass catchers then and uh, also if you think trevor laurence is in play I do want to hear that as well The jags pass catchers last week a lot of volume because they were down 27 nothing so obviously The actual like numbers in that game are going to be pretty wild But in the the 15 games they played with both jones is active christian kirk 24 percent target share Zay jones 23 percent both those guys have a 27 red zone share in that sample Kirk has a 31 deep share zay jones 22 percent marvin jones 31 percent So I think that marvin the two game slate more specifically is viable at 53 Not someone I want to get to but if it makes it easier to get to other guys fine I can live with that. Uh, he's well below both tony and darryl slate for me though But he's he's viable. I think that zay at 65 continues to be a tremendous option kirk at 76 I prefer davante smith over him and a j brown so to me Relative to salary relative to expected exposure. I probably go Zay one evan ingram two Marv three christian kirk four and I might wind up Not having christian kirk. Where are you on them and will you use trevor lorence? I'm pretty similar. Um, I don't know if I'll get to lorence I don't know if I think I'd be lowest on I might be lower on lorence than any other quarterback on the slate Yeah, with jones the rutchling. I think that's probably where I'd be too But specifically last week boy, they really they really concentrated things I know that I won't I won't say that like the target numbers but uh, kirk had a 30 target share zay jones 28 ingram 24 marv 13, but marvin 90 of the routes only so basically it was Angrum at 88 percent and then the three receivers marvin jones zay jones christian kirk had a higher Outrate than that travis etn 59 percent and then basically nobody else ran any route So like that's at least concentrated with the chiefs. It can be hard to pick the right stacking partner I know that we're like high on tony It's not like juju smith schuster is going away, but I think his role is a little bit overrated right now for the salary I don't think like the expectations are quite there, but It's going to be really easy to bring back Uh jaguars with those four pass catchers with etn I think I'd rank them the same issue and I'd probably just be lowest on kirk because I can get similar numbers like from zay jones. Yeah, I know that like popularity and leverage comes into play, but um Yeah, I think that probably no laurence. I got I can't play them. I can't play all the quarterbacks I think it's a bad long-term play in terms of expected value but Pretty pretty fun team in terms of how they concentrate things to their five skill position players right now I fully agree any final thoughts for you on this game before we move to uh, Giants eagles No, I think we talked about everything and we gave some context into the those two games that is a whole so Yes, some of this has already been discussed Well, let's move now to the giants at the eagles where right now The eagles are seven and a half point favorites total in this game is 48 and a half I think both those are appropriate based on what my numbers have I actually think I have the total of 49 It's actually a tiny bit higher and the spread a bit tighter So this game is actually not that bad for stacking Which might have been part of why I was talking about jelon hurts being Up there at the homes for this late hurts practicing and full not on the injured report But this week at all that's awesome lane johnson limited in practice for two days That's a good thing because he should return following a two game absence. Isaiah Hodgins has been limited in practice both days this week with an ankle injury. He should be good to go though so Full health across the board. You got to love that so brandon. What are you seeing here with the giants at the eagles? Yeah, I think we got to figure out uh, how jalen hurts stacks up compared to mahomes and really solidify the qb1 the person that were more in on It could be 50 50 But I don't know if that really helps because then you're just kind of limiting the chance that you hit the right stack so it might need to take a little bit of a stand with like Mahomes and then kelsey slash tony or Hurts and then his his past catchers. Let's have the quarterback discussion right now then I think to me I think jalen hurts is has a slight edge over patrick mahomes in terms of top quarterback on this slate because I just love the rushing so much and I have decently high expectations to the passing in terms of least efficiency the giants played tremendously last week Their offense is very fun. Their defense is still not very good and I like that that setup for jalen hurts hurts We know he's been used towards the goal line in week 18. They didn't run him but they didn't have to because they were 14 point favorites and You know just wanted to make sure he didn't make that injury worse heading into the post season So to me I would give jalen hurts a slight edge over mahomes for the qb1 on this slate I think both these guys are in a tier of their own above daniel jones Um, how do you view hurts versus mahomes? I think I'm with you. I think I think I have hurts a tick above um, could be a little bit Silly, but he's easy a lot easier to stack so if he goes If he has a big game I think I have a better chance of hitting the right stack candidate with him because it's a little bit more concentrated and it also Is a natural Way to pivot away from kelsie because dallas goddard would be a lot more viable if we're banking on a bigger game from jalen hurts Best best tight end matchup of the slate belongs to actually the whole weekend belongs to dallas goddard I like that So for that reason I have hurts a bit above and it helps me again like pivot away from kelsie without being careless Is dallas goddard your favorite stacking partner with jones hurts this weekend? I think he is because of how everything else shakes out. Mm-hmm. I agree. So And I don't think that's a bad thing personally because goddard has had a good role The sample I have on them is 10 games with goddard healthy With hurts healthy as well in those games Goddard 5.8 targets per game 0.5 d targets 0.9 red zone targets davante smith 6.9 overall targets per game 0.8 deep targets 0.7 in the red zone a j brown 8.4 total targets 1.9 deep So he looks pretty good in this but a j brown does but his salary also reflects that So goddard coming in At a salary of 63 I also think we'll probably see him be a bit under rostered here given that angrum had another very good game last week Has a lower salary given that kelsey is here as well So I think that goddard Grades out very well best stacking partner with hurts and honestly The further we get into this the more I talk myself into prioritizing sake one over travis kelsey as a result of my Allure or the allure of jillian hurts and dallas goddard Yeah, I think goddard is the real key to all this angrum too, but uh a little bit lower on him Because of the offensive expectations, but at that same 10 game split. Uh, he's a brown at 2.82 Here is per out running that span goddard's at 2.2, which is great davante smith 1.75 And it's not like to say that um, I don't like davante smith, but kind of just goes to show how good dallas goddard is um, and and then the the role is still strong, so With that matchup being what it is. I think that dallas goddard makes a lot of sense For this week, so i'm in on goddard and that's why I think i'm higher on sake one Which kind of then in turn puts me pretty high on this game compared to the first one Although I do I do like both so yeah, I think i'm there too The one question mark I have on the eagles is mild sanders because I've been working this whole year Under the assumption of they will use mild sanders more in high leverage games Because they had at one point this year. They had been bumping up his usage in bigger games including this game against um, the giants in week 14 or whatever it was one where he went absolutely bananas but then You look at some of the other games his snap rate was I would say underwhelming down the stretch and It was a question of okay. Are they conserving him for the playoffs or Is he just not as valuable as I thought he was I think specifically the big one was a dallas game 53.6 snap rate. There was no hurts in that game. So you think maybe they want to lean more on sanders to keep the the offense more efficient. He did have 21 carries. That's good. Um, that was Tied or tied for second most for him this year. It was his most in a game with boston scott active um So I love the matchup for sanders. I love how efficient he is on the touch. He does get I just don't know like i'm talking about bumping up projections for mccaffrey for pollard I don't know if I could do that with sanders. Where do you come down on him specifically? So i'm gonna ask you this because for me, I think he's over salaried based on the range Like the the sort of median expectations But sometimes i'm gonna bring this up because like I know what mild sanders ceiling is Right and I say well, I think the floor is really low because He could have a 45 snap rate get mixed out in the red zone for whoever else they want to bring in For me, I don't really see him being worth a $7200 salary Despite knowing that the ceiling is 100 plus rushing yards, maybe multiple touchdowns So I feel like this is one of those spots where I know how I feel about it, but Would you say that the ceiling is Worth chasing because his ceiling is You know, we think jerry mccanon has like a big in-game single game ceiling etn has it but like mild sanders has that Why are you not looking at it? What his ceiling is? The question is like what are his odds of reaching that ceiling? And I think that his odds of reaching that ceiling based on the way he might be used are a little bit lower I think that if you are multi-entering You need mild sanders. That's obvious. I can't go full fade because of that ceiling But I also can't make him a Conviction play because I don't have any conviction in saying that his role will increase. I almost positive They will still use kind of gain well in two minute drills. I You know, there's that boston scott against the giants narrative where he has like 43 touchdowns against the giants in his career Do they care about that? Probably not but nick siriani is a narrative guy. He was pumping stuff to aj brown He was trying to beat the colts down and it would know frank rike like he's a narrative guy So I would say If you have one lineup He is firmly in that discussion because he can go for 150 and two Um, did he have 144 and two again? Yeah 144 and two against them Yeah, so he can do that and I think if I have one lineup, I prefer him over mckinnon Because of that ceiling, I know it could go more poorly but he's just like he is the toughest player for me to to die slash Settle in on on the entire four games. They much less the two gamer Let me ask you this Um, let's say we want to get some isle sanders Would you pair him with my homes and like kelsey? And say well glan hurts isn't going to have the rushing touchdowns. They're going to go to miles sanders Maybe I think I have to actually because I'm not using seguan in that lineup So it's either him and mckinnon alongside etn Or pecheco and like I'd rather go sanders than those guys I think Yeah, so I think like if you're playing my homes It's like if you're playing my homes, you might want to play miles sanders. Yeah, I agree That's not galaxy brand at all. I think that's correct. I think you're right Um, I so like if if it's a my home's lineup sanders is higher on my list It's a hurts lineup. He's lower. That makes sense. Yeah bump bump them up because there's still a chance that like Hurts doesn't get the rushing touchdowns, but like kind of thinking well does or something and So you don't want to tie all of your like my homes and kelsey to sanders But I think you would kind of those those would correlate in terms of what it would take to like take down a gpp Gpp. I agree. Let's talk about the Giants pass catchers here Last week. I think we saw Kind of what was expected I was pleased to see Daria slayton get a big role in that game because I had a lot of him that drop sucked But I think seeing Brian dable on the sideline like consoling him talking like hey, we need you, you know stuff like that That tells me we're not going to see a role change for slayton because you will see that at times where a guy Has a big fumble and their role changes and they have a big drop their role changes I don't think we'll see that with slayton in part because Who's gonna replace them who they got in the in the chamber waiting to I guess Didn't they seem fine james washington. I don't care who cares anyway last week slayton eight overall target three deep targets One in the red zone as a hajans Nine overall one deep three in the red zone richie james six overall none deep one in the red zone I think that hajans is legitimately good at football I think the eagles also think that and I think as a result Probably going to get a lot of attention so I think that slayton at $1,000 lower in salary is a priority play on the slates I would like to get to hajans, but I think he's great very good football player But I think that i'm okay taking the discount on slayton I think people will do the same based on what you showed of optimizers slayton was in a lot of them justifiably Does the concern around roster rate scare you to the point where you will deviate from darious slayton Uh, well, uh, hey, I don't know where to go Unless it's just a cadarius tony Which I don't both in the same lineups. I don't dislike, but I'm gonna have both in a lot of lineups I think the darious slap cadarius darious I think you could Look, it's again. It's one of those slayton is one of the best process plays on the slate at salary That much we're admitting But he's a wide receiver he You know has a high a dot that he could get eight targets I mean he had eight targets four catches eight yards. So, you know good game last week, but if he has three catches 42 yards on those eight targets like that's Exactly what you're looking for in a fade So it's not a full fade or a full like I'm definitely not locking him in I'm more likely to lock in cadarius tony, which is weird because I'm yeah, I've seen it from slayton Sure 95 route rate last week um I say quite a 95 in the routes as well. I didn't even notice that told us now Hodgson's at a hundred percent ritchie james at 66 percent um It's the use more laurence cager So they had more two tight endsets with him and bellinger and I think that was why james got squeezed. Yeah, so, um Look slayton's a great play. I will still very much consider him in uh, like a single entry I probably want to be overweight on him because I think the role is even better than like what the Production was last week, but yeah, you know, you can only do so much and you don't want to fade very Good process plays outright just to be Different, but you know, I'm also not going to like yell at anyone for fading. Darius Layton. No, let me get it If you're concerned about Darius slay on Darius Layton um Going back to week 14 that was before Hodgson's really broke out but in that game Only eight routes for slay versus slayton versus nine for avante mattox James bradbury five routes against for dairy slayton. Whereas Hodgson saw a good amount of james bradbury. So I feel like with how well Hodgson is playing I think that the eagles are prioritized shutting down Hodgson's versus slayton And I don't disagree. I think that's probably a fine strategy But I think that allows me to feel better about slayton as well um in that regard any Any bellinger and if you're building 10 lineups How many of them have Daniel Jones in them? so no bellinger because We actually have three good tight ends in this lady. So I'd rather use one of the good ones. That's a risk Engrym Goddard Kelsey you're betting against all three and I don't want to do that personally. So, uh, no for me there um Five 10 lineups I would say you can do a hundred if it makes it easier, but no um Five hertz four mohomes one dimes I'm gonna board with that Yeah, I mean like his like the reason you would use a player is because you need to make sure they have a ceiling To match mohomes and Hertz, but jones has that with his rushing It is really strange that he's doing what he's doing on the ground and like scoring a lot of fandal points, but Is the lowest salary quarterback of the slate it is And that makes it easy to get Kelsey and sake one if you want to go Daniel jones like if you think Daniel jones puts up 25 And that mohomes and Hertz don't get like 40 He's going to be the best play because of what he does for the rest of your lineup, but You go Daniel jones with sake one barkley travis kelsey travis etn chief's defense. You got 62 75 left Put in derrius slayton cadarius tony the key value plays 6800 left for two slots a receiver and a flex It's not bad. So He makes sake one kelsey pretty easy to get to so maybe I should go two Danny dimes and then four of each for mohomes and Hertz. Is that stupid? No, I like that. Um final thing at least for me for the slate are you are you open to Receiver flex tight-ended flex Yeah, okay, because if you think about the receivers around 6000 I'm probably already gonna have derrius laden and cadarius tony in my lineup. So if I take them out Guys around 6000 it's richie james evan angriom You know marvin jones down there. I prefer angriom over james. I prefer angriom over marvin jones So realistically if I'm in that range, I'm just gonna go angriom So I think I'm receptive to evan angriom Specifically being the flax if something that got her to kelsey is already in there. So yeah, what about you? Yeah, definitely because running back's not great enough. Yeah, um, especially in the lineups where you're fading sake one I don't want three of like the other guys in there. Yeah, I'd agree that okay Let's move now to this sunday slate and talk about the bangles at the bills Bangles bills banger coming up on sunday the bills are five and a half point favorites total is 48 and a half and the reason that the Bills are five and a half point favorites is the bangles offensive line is beat up neither jonah williams nor alex kappa Practiced on wednesday for the bangles both are expected to sit out this game uh, williams did play through a Dislocated kneecap earlier on this year, but that's tough to do it twice in one year I think it's different knees, but that also doesn't seem fun as in the kenzie practiced in full He said that he will be good to go this week. So bill's healthy bangles not brandon. What do you see is the overview of this game? Uh, it's basically the travis kelsie discussion all over again, but with josh allen And how high how high we are on josh allen if we think anyone else can match him Um, how much of a priority he is. I know we have joe burrow on the slate at a thousand dollars lower in salary at 8,000 Dak prescott showing the ceiling that you and I have been banking on for A lot when I used him. Yeah, but yeah, we've been in on dak forever and uh Weren't quite there. I mean it was you know the monday night game And then brock purdy is Brock purdy so like the odds that josh allen puts a flamethrower to the slate Very real I think the question is do you think that How do you think burrow does because if you think the burrow can overcome his offensive line injuries He is the one guy who can flirt with josh allen on this slate And I have a lot of faith in joe burrow. So I think yes. He can um, I think he can I think he can also take nine sacks Maybe but you know Again, it's not really about floor So I think for me If I have 10 lineups, I'm going seven josh allen three joe burrow zero dak zero purdy I'd be fine with that. I don't know if that second game is the game that you go to for quarterback I think maybe dak. Well, I don't know because people don't like dak Yeah, but now it's coming off a big game. I don't know what that'll do but and I just think in terms of upside And median projection both those guys are well above the other two I think the bigger question is where is allen compared to hurts and the homes for the four game slate because I think I would go with both my homes and hurts over josh allen. I'm not sure if that's dumb Um, but that's the way I feel about it. Um, how do you think what do you think about allen compared to those two guys? I mean my range of outcomes sims do have once you count for like salary and everything Does have my homes hurts then allen Okay I can see the case for it um Yeah, I think like playoff my homes is He's I don't know if this is actually statistically the case, but more willing to run and he's a good runner He's at five rush attempts per game in the postseason and 3.7 during the regular season. Love this up like a week ago. Um He he has the four or five touchdown like passing touchdown upside Cat like there's no cap on his passing yardage upside and you know, I I don't know how this like bangles buffalo game is going to go from a Sort of emotional standpoint. Yeah So I could see this one being like Each team hangs 42 on the board Yeah, or things just aren't clicking And I don't have that fear with like the other two games Yeah, if I look at um my numbers for this slate, um, I have So I like the under in this game I took the under when it was a 50 and a half in part because of weather the weather has since gotten better Wind speeds went down like 10 miles per hour after I bet it. Whoops. Um I have Kansas City at 29.6 for their implied total. I have uh philly at 27.9 Buffalo 24.1 in part because I've used to being a tighter spread because I like the bangles um And because I like the under so that's part of also why I like allen a bit less So to me I would go hurts one Mahomes to allen three for the four games late I'm not going to push back on that at all. Okay. Let's talk about the rest of this game then And I think that that it kind of comes down to how competitive you expect the bangles to be in this one Because we've seen them be efficient even when they haven't had jamar chase even when t higgins has missed You know gone out during the game. That's why I feel like they can be very competitive during this game Which is why I like joe burrow and willing to use them on the two game slate probably not in the four gamer but on the two games late I'll use him and It's why I freaking love t higgins t higgins salary is $7,000. Um if we look at the games Where is the split nine games with everyone healthy? Which means chase haydenhurst tyler boy t higgins all four of those guys healthy in that time Chase has a 28 target share which is sick T higgins 22 very good T has a 33 deep share versus 37 for jamar chase chase 29 inside the red zone. That's why I should like jamar chase too But t higgins also grades out really well with his salary down to $7,000. So I love t higgins. I think that on the sunday only slates he is He and debo sammel probably my two favorite receivers relative to salary Where are you on higgins and the rest of this uh, bengal's offense? I have debo higher than t personally But yeah T last week 92 percent of the routes behind tyler boy at 94 percent Boyd salaries 56 just kind of flagging that not going to get like the same Target per outright anything like that compared to t higgins, but you know if you're if you're open to playing joe burrow I think you should at least be taking a look at tyler boyd. I see hate and hurst and a lot of optimizers too even in two tight end You know optimizer lineups 86 route rate last week. So Between between those two we have t higgins I again Could be emotional for t to a degree, but I think that maybe At the salary He is still a priority play for me But in the context of the whole slate there's a lot of receivers in play So I think that also bumps him back down to like I don't know if he's going to be someone that I try to plug in first and foremost Sure, despite loving the process to get me on to t higgins. Yeah, okay I think that makes a lot of sense. Uh, where do you view jamar chase compared to Stefan diggs in this game diggs salary 82 hundred dollars jamar chase 85 I have Diggs over chase by just a little tick Okay, but boy, it's hard to dislike anything you saw from jamar chase Last week 38 target share 47 percent air yard share 97 of the routes is as expected But for diggs just higher offensive like expectations Gets a lot of good good like good leverage Seems like he's coming alive down the stretch. It almost seems like You know, we talked at certain degrees of like players We think might get extended in the playoffs and almost feels like that with diggs. It was like he was the guy That they just like lean on and everyone else I know we love gave davis I can't remember where I saw this on on twitter, but it's just like a comment of how They're bringing bringing in guys off the street and like they're getting work It does in to a degree lower me on Davis a tick but not really it's just kind of like I don't want to get overexposed to the The tertiary and quaternary options here. So I that kind of bumps me up on diggs I feel like there may be fewer fewer routes to go With the bills and the bangles Which seems weird to say The counterpoint on the guys off the street thing is that the guys at the street were getting targets over like Khalil Shakir Yeah, he said nine targets last week. Oh, yeah, yeah yards. So like I think the bigger point against gave is that is a mckenzie is back I think that hurts him But even in the split if you look at week six to 18 where they had mckenzie healthy No james and crowder and guys like that in that time davis a 21 target share diggs 29 percent 33 percent deep for gave 35 percent deep for diggs 25 percent the red zone for davis 23 percent for diggs. So honestly, it's a very It's very similar to the jamar chase tea higgins split I think though with mckenzie being back and gave coming off a big game whereas tea is not I prefer tea over gave I think that the assumption of increased roster rates for gave is what pushes me towards tea because I don't think tea will be as popular this week Yeah, and I wasn't really trying to talk down on gave it was more like Diggs is there. He's their number one. I know people like to joke that like gave davis wide receiver one next season like in fantasy football um But it does feel a lot more dispersed beyond that And if that ever bleeds into like gave davis But again, it's offensive expectations. So I'm not going to fight anyone on tea versus gave I kind of gave like a half tick higher than tea, but okay I'd rather get the tea for differentiation purposes some with you on that so I have a lineup in front of me, which is a hundred dollars off from being viable and It has both gave and tea in it. I am more likely to lop off gave the tea from that lineup That's that's where I reflect my sentiment Towards them for this week. Let's talk here about the running backs on both sides Last week Joe mixon didn't get a bump at all I actually got a role reduction against relative to smog ap rine And honestly like mixon didn't play that well in that game So I don't think it was like off base to do that either On the bill side James cook seemed like he got work early on but devon singletary did eventually pull away And have a lead in the backfield So even though james cook scored my sentiment towards him lowered a bit in that game Especially because once that game got close is when they really leaned on singletary I think they just trust singletary more that could be like a feel-based Narrativey thing. I don't want to use either really Realistically, I'll probably have to and I'd prefer singletary over James cook thoughts on them and then thoughts on mixon for the Bengals Yeah, don't really like I don't like any running backs in this game as priorities Um, I think that there are two in the next game that are priorities the priorities of all priorities Yeah, um, I'm trying to look up first half snaps last week So james cook 28 percent Singletary 62 percent mixon 47 percent PRine 53 percent Yeah, it was 55.6 percent overall for singletary in that dolphin's game Yeah, don't don't really love any of those but I don't know how you don't have singletary above Cook pretty comfortably there I like cook more but like I think I have to have singletary higher. It's one of those spots where I'm not gonna say this is not exact but like Classic tony pollard versus e because like we might want pollard to have a better role But if he doesn't he doesn't That's obviously not the case for this game that we'll talk about next but like it's no longer the case But singletary is the better play um I don't have some by sort of I don't actually I don't know if there's really necessity if I just go with macaffery and pollard Together and I don't have to play a third running back on the slate if I don't want to but for mixon I don't really see the case even from like a And upside differentiation standpoint The role is not good enough for that unless he comes out with like a jamal williams sort of line where it's like Two touchdowns on the goal line taking away all the value from the rest of the players, but Are you any interest in some aji peerine? No, okay, definitely not uh you I prefer you know, I mentioned over him I don't hate it I do from uh well from a Correlation standpoint if I play like a lot of bills and think they get out ahead Yeah, I'm not doing that You I get I think you have to thought process thought process is not bad Yeah, I probably in the game since mixing came back. He's at 19 yards per game 19 yards in scrimmage per game. It's really bad. Um, they've won all 19 19 routes for him Eight routes for mixon last game That that more so turns me off a mixon then puts me on some aji peerine. Yeah Tight ends in this game. I think both of these are The two best tight ends in the slate relative to salary, which sounds really bad considering that is george kittle and dalton shaltz in the The late game But nox's salary is 58 her salary is 5000 on these shorter slates I often just tie my tight end to the quarterback and I'm more likely to use I'm only going to use allen and burrow That's why I wind up on those two guys. So I'm just gonna let quarterback dictate where I go here I'm okay with allen with her if I need to say salary. That's fine. Um, but I think that's the way I'll play it here. Uh, what about for you with those two guys specifically? Yeah, same here. Plus I need salary to get to macafrey He's a much bigger priority than the tight ends. So Uh, dalton shaltz taking advantage of like good matchup last week It's a horrible matchup this week like Fred Warner creates a black hole in the middle of the field Uh, one eye jack productions on youtube says I turned him. I gave the babe fan card. Uh, a you're right b Thank you for saying gave the babe and not big game gave which tony romo said 16 000 times last week So one eye jack. Thank you in both regards for respecting gave the babes proper nickname Any final thoughts for you on bills versus bangles? Uh I think we covered it Okay, let's move now to the cowboys at the 49ers where we have the 49ers as three and a half point favorites total in this game Is 45 and a half injuries here I got nothing both these teams pretty healthy. The one thing I would note on the injured port was an absence Uh, the absence of christian macafrey. He practiced in full on a wednesday for the first time since week 12 That was pretty Thanksgiving. I believe it's been a minute and he was in full and That's not why he to me is a headliner of this game He is a headliner of this two game slate He is the headliner and the biggest priority of the four game slate And I want to start things off start out the discussion with christian macafrey brandon How much of a priority is he for you? across these various slates He is very much a priority 73 snap rate in the wild card round 15 carries 119 yards Two targets, but 25 routes. I I think we might see Um, the the note that like eulogy mitzvah had three targets, but he ran four routes so High variance there for him to get that number Um, but 90 snap rate in the first half His first half snap rates are like off the charts If there's ever a game where it's like close throughout You know, I was a little bit worried about eulogy mitzvah Taken some work and in the end he did because it was again like they didn't have to run with calfrey in the ground But if you think this game stays close christian macafrey Should play like I said that christian macafrey should have like a travis etn Asked like 90 snap rate, but that's very disrespectful to christian macafrey. He's just a great play and There's no way that he scripted out And there's also like really no way that he doesn't get yardage The touchdowns might not calm, but that's there's only so much we can do there, but yeah You can pay off a lot of them macafrey an absolute priority, but then that begs the question Do you prioritize christian macafrey or josh allen if you can only kind of build around one? It's not it's not as hard to do both, but like you can do both But like who's a bigger priority for you macafrey I'd rather go burrow with macafrey than allen without macafrey personally. Yeah, do you agree? I agree part of the reason why I would say that is that My favorite staff for this weekend is there have been seven games this year macafrey has had two-thirds the snaps with san francisco, so You mentioned the 73 snap rate last week. He was 90 percent the first half if we assume he has two-thirds the snaps this week Here are his rushing plus receiving guarded totals in those games 149 146 153 138 58 193 136 That's why I say he could pay off without a touchdown Was there a 58 in there or was it did you correct one? Okay, no 58? Yeah, he had 58 in one of the I don't know which game, but yeah I didn't know if you were correcting 138 to 58 It was I would have done it by screwing it up. So no, it was actually 58 But he's averaged 139 with a 58 in there. He's had less than 136 once Um sounds good And I think the cowboys will be competitive in this game. I think the spread of three and a half is appropriate I think that's about where it should be So that to me says it'll stay close that to me says christian macafer who go bananas that to me says christian macafery across every player across every slate on this weekend is the biggest priority And I think the fact that I can get to him with a high salary quarterback makes it easy even easier to do so and Part of the reason why I have faith in getting to macafery with joshan on this slate is the presence of ty hilton I want to talk about him quickly here ty hilton's salary is $5,000 We'll talk about paul in a second. Um, but ty hilton's salary is $5,000 last week hilton Ran a route on half the drop backs, uh, but it was 67 in the first half He had four targets on 17 routes. So if that game stays more competitive and they're not run blocking I think ty hilton's snap rate is probably a bit higher than what it wound up being and That's enticing because he's at 2.9 yards per route run On the entire season, which is actually higher than cd land. That's not sustainable. That won't stick, but like When he's out there is getting work. He's earning targets. He looks pretty good So ty hilton's salary is $5,000 on sunday. I think using him to get to Alan plus macafery and pallard is very viable. Um, are you willing to use ty hilton as a You know the kind of a punt play this weekend I sure am you mentioned the 50 route rate, uh, 24 target per route rate Which is a pretty solid number for a role player. Um, good a dot good like leverage With a team for another week. Um, I don't have like super high expectations But it's another one of the spots where if you can make a viable case for someone at a $5,000 salary on a two game slate Look, he might bust he I don't want to say he probably will bust but The chance that he has a huge game pretty limited. Yeah, but for what he opens up Without just being a complete throw away I think that he's like a standout at salary. Yeah So uh ty hilton or michael gallop Gallop is $5,700 What gallop by how much? A decent amount, uh 85 route rate for him uh last week I know that i'm somewhat willing to take the discount personally, uh hilton or chile boyd boyd By how much If I have 5700 left i'm not going to ty hilton over No, I mean like accounting for salary though. I I know i'm saying like it's not enough for i'm like well I think that he's just under salary to that degree Okay, uh salary Final one ty hilton juwan jennings or izay mckenzie I want to go juwan jennings just because I I do like the role from him, but I'll go hilton I agree um in the games the Uh six games with debo and mccaffrey, uh jennings four targets per game. That's not bad for 51 0.8 beat targets 0.5 reds and targets like you said the reds the role is not bad, but I prefer hilton personally over him It's kind of a stupid. Yeah, good. No one What no good. Let's move on. He has more targets than george katal in that sample Anyway, let's talk about tony powered tony powered salary is $7100 in this slate Last week powered had a 58 snap rate. That's not going to set off any alarm bells, but That's actually his highest snap rates in a game with zeke this year. Um He got used a decent amount, but not enough where Projections systems will move on him heavily not enough where he'll get a lot of looks I don't think from a rostre perspective like not a ton at least He had um 89 yards in skirmish 10.4 fandal points with no touchdown He has not scored since the houston game, which was on december 11th So I think tony powered is I think powered and mccaffrey to me Are the two biggest locks in this slate Regardless position regardless of salary. What about you for you where you want to add on power? Pollard? Yeah, he should have scored last week I had I you mentioned him at plus 185. I got him at plus 190 ryan talked about plus 190 on the monday show too. It was uh I also had 71 and a half rushing plus receiving so that helped but Um, I was sad. Yeah, yeah should have scored. But yeah, pollard fantastic play Um, as you mentioned 58 snap rate at the end of the game Ezekiel it ended at 48 percent, but they were both at 51 in the first half. So Either they wanted to like limit zeke. They didn't think that they needed to like Give zeke enough work or they saw enough from pollard. They scaled him up I would have to think that You know, they trail in this game And pollard gets, you know, a lot more routes a lot more targets Than zeke long term. It's kind of similar last week, but I don't think that's really relevant So I also think the matchup favor is pollard because the 49ers rush defense has allowed a 35 success rate up the gut versus 43 percent to the outside That's pretty universal. Most teams are better up the gut than on uh outside runs negative point of seven rushing that expected points per carry versus 000 Up the get onto the outside and if we look at the cowboys since zeke's return in the games that pollard has played um Pollards rush share increases to 40 percent from 35 percent when they go outside the zeke's even at 40 Point uh, 41 percent on runs the outside, but he's at 47 percent of the middle. So if they decide to run more Horizontally, I had to think of the word Run more horizontally to account for the matchup. That also favors tony pollard. Um, so I think a lot of stuff does Favor him as being a priority for this late. Let's talk here about the non juan jennings pass catchers on the 49ers. Um, I have the sample being Six games with debo mccafrey in that sample debos at 7.7 targets per game 0.5 deep and 0.7 in the red zone Like not a lot of deep work, but also his rushing is not factored in there either So I think that debo as mentioned is the best receiver plate Receiver play on this late. You said you have more tea higgins, which implies to me He's probably your number one as well. Is that correct? Number one on the slate. Yeah I mean I have like tiers and I have like digs in jamar But like relative to salary, right? I don't have it. I don't have it broken down quite like that But okay, I'm most likely to have debo of any receiver because of the salary. So He's probably effectively My number one there. I think that the the rushing is still going to be there To some degree high leverage work and and frankly Look, george kittles been scoring a lot He just has not been getting a ton of work And I think it's pretty clear that with what debo has been doing since he's been back He is a very integral part of what this offense wants to be and do So I'm in on debo Yeah, uh, and it wasn't just big plays from debo last week. He had nine targets in that game got some rushing attempts as well He wasn't dependent. He like he His point total on fandals because of big plays, but his usage was also very good, especially for guide 71 so I mentioned that I have um T second behind debo. I think it's a full tier difference though Um between them. So debo one tier one T Higgins tier two, but in second and then jamar chase stiff on digs in that same tier as T for me What about iuk his salary is 65? I think we're both lower on kiddle as a result of the volume result of the salary Where do you come in and brandon iuk at 65? in 97 of the routes last week not really surprising, um You know good a dot for for him last week specifically party was chucking it deep It was It was because of like guys were schemed open and stuff like that, but like he was willing to chuck it Which is good. Yeah, so I don't want to overlook iuk just because I'm not playing like Brock perty at quarterback And I think he's very easy to overlook with like gabe right there Um t debo right in that range not exactly but close enough Uh, I don't fear like the blow-up game but I think that iuk unless he catches the like He and gabe get the well I can't get up to t higgins, but i'm not going to go down to michael gallup I'll just plug in one of these two kind of bump. Yeah I think I'll probably probably be a little bit under rostered relative to where he should be for I think he has like an okay ceiling for two games late. So yeah Not a priority, but uh, he's a tier two play for me like you pull up sunday night games are done you pull up the Um, whatever, you know tournament you were in you pull up and look at the winning lineup You see brandon iuk in there. You're probably not surprised I think that's fair and I mentioned that lineup that I have Where it's a hundred dollars over salaried. I can jump down from gade davis tyuk and make that work. I'm fine at that I think that's totally okay prefer gabe. Don't get me wrong. I'm not turning my gabe debate card yet But I can make that constellation if it gets me josh allen mccaffrey pollard T debo. I can do that. So I probably will so because george kiddo requires such a You have to you're not gonna like Fall your way into 7100 left and just plug in a tight end Are you going out of your way to build george kiddo lineups if you have 10 how many you have kiddo? any so Let me see here. Okay. Let me do this quick. Uh, I'd have to use joe burrow. I know that so burrow And then we'll go pollard and mccaffrey because i'm not prioritizing kiddo over them And then let's go kiddo at tight end And for this lineup we'll go with the 40 Let's go bangles defense. I guess to really save salary 6300 left for all three wide receivers and a flex It's not easy And that also is burning one of my burrow lineups. I don't have a lot So probably not the prioritizing kiddo Yeah, I'm with you. Okay. I want to make sure I like he's a great player. He's so fun to watch. Um, but That's salary for his usage is tough to get to I know he's very good in the usage he gets But like, you know, it's yeah, it's tough and like you could make the same as that case george kiddo sealing relative to the other tight ends on this slate Possibly larger than like what kelsey has over like Other viable tabs. Yeah, because goddard's there. Yeah, because a goddard ingram has like a sealing Despite that, I don't think that the the otzi hits it is quite high because they don't anticipate The game flow to lead to george kiddo getting eight targets I don't even know how many how many drops they'd have to have for him to get eight targets Um, and I'm not I'm never really going to bank on four targets and two touchdowns from a player at that salary I do the same lineup but with uh, dalton schultz instead of george kiddo. I've got 64 75 left I can still get to tea higgins. I can get to I probably need to I help him Let's go debo And let's go hilton in that lineup And that means I can get the game too. That's actually not a bad lineup I think I'm more likely to use dalton schultz and george kiddo as Offensive as that is as rude as that is as disrespectful as that is. I think I'm more likely to use Dalton schultz than george kiddo What's your read on him at 64 hundred hours? yeah schultz so I noticed that the bucks A lot of really high catch rate of expectation to tight end. So I got on him looking some props um For this past week san francisco not as bad By any means you have me a little bit worried because of like how much you're talking up certain defenders and to be honest One of the things I don't really focus on is like individual defenders. I don't care um Like they're a good team by like catch rate and target rate and stuff but not an outlier So I think I'm higher on schultz than you are. Yeah, okay. Um, I just It's like so fred warden is a black hole in the middle of the field and tight ends typically operate over the middle of the field um Schultz is more athletic I think which allows him to get outside some more times but That's why I'd be more willing to use him than kiddo but It is why I think I'm higher on knocks and hearst on this slate is because There's a black hole in the entire middle of the field Oh, wait, my numbers actually have uh, no targets the tight ends Ever because there's a black hole there. Yes. Thank you For once the numbers back up my brain. I'm happy about this Okay, let's talk about the 40 the cowboys pass catcher is non-ty hilton version cd lamb salary is not bad at 78 The issue that I run into with him is that with a black hole No, because he works on the outside more. He's in the swatty decent black hole. I think We gotta learn about science But I think a black hole is gonna like draw stuff in from the outside. No, this is not Come on read a book. Um I think the issue I have with lamb is that If I'm getting Pollard and McCaffrey and then either allen or burrow It's gonna make it hard to get to lamb So as much as I love cd lamb's role this year, I think he's been underappreciated and how good his role has been um I think that is an accurate statement I feel like I'll wind up being underweight on him. Uh, where do you settle in on lamb when you factor in a salary? You know, and if I turn a salary, it's a little tough The case I would make is like well If I like Pollard and I like lamb Maybe I should be at least a little bit higher on Dak And so if I'm playing lamb with dak, then that naturally saves some salary off of you know, both of them I don't know how often I would do that. I know you said seven three allen burrow I might try to get a dak lineup in there. Okay Because I think people won't really get there with the the matchup being what it is again It's hard to know exactly where this will shake out by sunday, but again, if you like Look that's look really good. I know the 49ers defense is great But he looked good and I don't think that they I don't know if they were holding him back in terms of the volume, but I don't think so. I think that it was just weird circumstances that led to like he's He's playing more high variance football this year, which I think is a good thing Like it leads to picks But like it's higher upside so I don't And they're also running him in the red zone again That'd be a good pitch for using dak that you did that a lot before I heard his ankle They're starting to do it again. So I don't I don't think I'll get there on the two games sleep, but I understand why you are considering it I think it's a way to be different without being completely dumb. Yeah, and then all you're saying is like I think josh allen maybe gets under 30 Yeah, like you think he performs the way he did against the dolphins, which is very well But also not must have territory. Yeah And uh, again, you're kind of playing the angle that look one of the biggest Mistakes people make is chasing passing volume for quarterbacks for because like of blowouts and stuff You needed the efficiency to be there, but Whenever dak has kind of been a little bit capped with like the pure upside if he throws 40 times in this game even if you adjust back for the efficiency of the defense like I could see him getting 24 in like a peak game and then If I could be enough on this light sure so I don't think he's completely out of the picture and that would that's the only way. I think I'll play CDLM though Yeah, okay. I think that's there. Um, anything else for you in this game? Uh, what about you like Mitchell? Uh a bit lower on him than I was last week in large part because I don't think I'll need to get there Because part of the thesis behind playing him last week was because it would get you to macafery and Now macafery salary is lower So I don't think I need as desperately to use him I think I would need to assume he'd have to be paired with 49ers defense Because I I think I'd have to assume that it gets out of hand and the cowboys just struggle It would be no Pollard and with the 49ers defense, which the bill that probably won't do very often But I could see it, but I just don't know if I'll get there single Terry James Cook Eli Mitchell some RGP Ryan rank them I would go with single Terry one James Cook two but not by a lot Eli Mitchell three P. Ryan not a consideration. Yeah Do you okay? Cool. All right. That's all we have for this game any final thoughts before we close up shop for the entirety of the divisional round Uh I don't know. I think it's uh, I think it's like we kind of There's like baseline assumptions of how this game will go based on like the betting lines And despite the fact that we talked about like assuming that the cowboys play from behind It's actually like the tightest spread but You know, if the if you think the jaguars like play really play really well and uh Like I don't know. I'm not gonna play Trevor Lawrence, but like I don't think anyone's really out of play at quarterback I think that they're hard to justify plays but Look, they're both two game slates even on the four game slate. You can do whatever you want But yeah, I think it's it again based on the start of the show It's pretty obvious what the Best sort of builds are and then it's up to you from there how you want to differentiate Christian McCaffrey no matter what is my final thought for whatever slate you're playing Christian McCaffrey no matter what like if that is all that we have here for today on the heat check fantasy podcast as mentioned though a lot of other good stuff going on here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed daily iso with Tom Beck yo ufc for big slates with austin swain We have pga every tuesday as well all right here in the same feed So go search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe If you like what you hear leave us a rating interview We're back here once again next week to break down the conference championship games will also the show Before the super bowl so a lot of good stuff. You're still coming as the season winds down We'll still be here talking to nfl with all of you branded if people have any questions for you on twitter Where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at goodwill 13 gd ula 13 and i am on twitter at jim sanis j i m s a nnes you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your lineups across all of the slates this weekend Have a great time. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire