 It's still plus politics, now there are indications that the 2023 presidential elections may be the last chance for the eminent Nigerians or some of them who have been within the corridors of power for a very long time. Now, since the return of the current political dispensation in 1999, the lax of the People's Democratic Party presidential candidates, Attiku Abubaka and Bala Ahmed Tinibu of the all-progressive Congress presidential candidates now have been in the corridors of power for a very long time. While Attiku was Nigeria's vice president from 1990-2007, Tinibu was involved in the creation of political parties that brought President Muhammad al-Buhari to power. Now, since then Attiku has moved around political parties in his quest to occupy Nigeria's highest political sit. Like Attiku, Tinibu belongs to the class of octogenarians with his age put at 70. Joining us to discuss this are Uche Chita, a political analyst and Ufomai Bwamuna, who is a journalist. Thank you so much gentlemen for joining us. Thank you for having us. Thank you for having me. Great. It's very interesting that we're talking about these two people who seem to be the flag bearers of the two major political parties for 2023. Now there has been chatter in some corridors about this being their last shot at any form of power or relevance. But then for Attiku we keep seeing him reinvent himself and continuously being the flag bearer of the People's Democratic Party. But if he were to not emerge as president come 2023, does he still have a lifeline left? I'll start with you, Ufomai. To be very honest, we can never say never for a Nigerian politician. That's the honest truth. Yes, Attiku is in 70, as we speak. If he doesn't get elected, he'll come next year, 2023. There's still an election cycle in our five years time, which will be 2027. Honestly, we don't put it past Attiku Abubata coming up again in 2027, just in case he doesn't get the presidential victory next year. However, another way to look at it would be, a lot of practices are already suggested in 2020, that before Attiku would retire, this is his fourth try to be president of Nigeria. Since 1992, that's about 30 years ago or a bit about. Some are already suggesting now that he possibly should retire and possibly look for someone younger. So you would expect those calls to also come up again in 2027. However, he's a dogged politician. He was not one of those who said he was his life long ambition, but he wants to think that Attiku Abubata wants to be president of Nigeria. If he doesn't get it next year, I would not put it past him trying in 2027. Uche, looking at the two somewhat, I'm using the word underdog loosely here, movements that have seemingly taken over not just social media, but even the streets of the different parts of the country with the hashtag or BDN to movement. And we also have the Kwankwa Sia movement. It may not be as huge, but it is a movement of sorts, as opposed to the APC and the PDP who have these, in quote, strong men. Do we see, if again, like I said, there is an opportunity for them to be president, it does not necessarily happen. Do we see a reemergence of any of these gentlemen, be it a Chinubu or an Attiku, especially a Chinubu? Many have complained. Many have queried his health. Many have queried his capabilities. Many have said, I've even questioned why he's so intent on being president. But do we see a reemergence of a Chinubu or an Attiku in 2023? Well, in the political landscape of Nigeria, starting from the PDP, I don't see any other individual that can wrestle the presidential ticket from an Attiku. Once he put his heart in the ring for the 2023 elections, I told people, like I was so, I could put money on it. I was almost guaranteed that he was going to win the ticket. There was nobody in the primaries, an Attiku formidable PDP. He knows the politics. He has been doing it for a long time. I mean, he's trained with the best like people like God best saw me, General Yadwa, the PDM movement. So he knows what to do to get the tickets. He knows what to do to get in the PDP. The only time he encountered some kind of obstacle was in 2011. And even then it was very formidable. I mean, he made Babangila, IBB, Gustavo, and a couple of other Northerners stepped down for him and he became the Northern Consensus Candidate against Good Luck Jennifer. By Providence, Good Luck Jennifer is still in marriage, but I know the sweat that was put in place to make sure that it happened because I was actually part of that campaign of Good Luck Jennifer to become the candidate for 2011. Moving forward, he can always get a 2023 ticket. Nothing stops him. Now the same thing with Tinnubu. Tinnubu basically can get a ticket of APC anytime he wants. Even the president, Major General Bohari, actually tried to stop him using different means, but could not stop a Tinnubu from taking the ticket of the APC. He's basically unstoppable. He's basically his party. He put the people in place. He's helped a lot of people along the way. They all came politically. So if a 2027 comes about and he needs the APC ticket, they will hand it over to him. The world, as we know, has no problem handing tickets to all people. People who make noise, I can quite noise about this, but he's retired. I'm just looking for an easy way to remove the biggest obstacles to getting part. We see the case in the US where Joe Biden got the Democratic Party ticket and he became president. Are they the best people? No. They're definitely not the best people, but because of the way party politics is in Nigeria, and the party politics are all around the world, such strong men always emerge. So that's just the reality of things we can't evaluate. What does this say? I mean, following from what Uche has said about the fact that these, in quotes again, strong men will always emerge, being that they seem to have the party at their whims and caprices. But when we talk about the revolution or evolution of politics in Nigeria, has there even been any whatsoever? Again, I go back to the movements that we're seeing. Many people have also queried those movements saying that they're just social media online movements. When it comes down to it, these are the guys who know the political terrain and these are the guys who will always sail through. But have we really evolved in the politicking process? Will there come a time in the future, after 2023, where maybe these strong men would not be a strong anymore? Or maybe there will be a time where the parties will not be at their whims and caprices or be wary of them and how they politic and decide that they would go with another? Maria, the honest answer to that question is I'm not sure that's going to stop anytime soon. See, you can hate them for all you care. You can say all the things you want to say about them. The bottom line still remains that these guys have been entrenched in the system. You know, I just told you that I took a bubble card contested for the very first time to become president as far back as 1992. My youngest sister was just about a year or two old at the time. She's married. She has a three-year-old son. That should tell you, you know, how long that has been. These guys know what it takes to politic. They've entrenched enough into the system. A Tudubu, for example, did not just wake up and get the ABC ticket overnight. You know, he's worked for it. Since he left power in 2007, he has been ensuring that he gets people into power from governors to legislators, new senators, House of Assembly members in the States. And at the end of the day, in 2022, all of these things came back to play to ensure that he got the ABC ticket. So, the same thing with Tudubu. You know, my colleague over there mentioned the fact that when Tudubu put his heart into the ring, he said that he was going to win the election. That's exactly what I said. As far back as last year, you know, or even earlier this year, there are two people as it is right now in Nigeria who have the name, the wealth, the experience, and the political clout to become president. Those two are the two front runners or the two candidates of the two biggest political parties. I'm sorry to comment, but let me quickly ask you something before I lose that train of thought. You talked about the personality and the political clout to win these elections. Does money politics play a role? Is that the clout that we're talking about? Because we saw that there could have been a shift of sorts just before the electoral process in itself started for both political parties. The clout we're talking about here, is it just about knowing people, the spread or the spread of their monies, their bank accounts? Merlian, it's all a comparison. Unfortunately, you cannot really win money politics. In Nigeria, unfortunately, you can. For those of us who live in urban cities or urban centers, you know, it's not so easy to sway us with cash ingestments. But go to the native land. Go to Orogun, for example, in Delta State. Go to the remotest of villages in Borno State where some of them don't even have power. Talk less of even having what they call supply tees to watch us, for example, right now. These guys can be swayed with as low as 500 naira. 500 naira, Merlian. So the truth of the matter is that money still gets involved in all of these conversations. However, aside money, I just told you about how entrenched these guys are. Before 2014 or before 2015, remember that the ruling party at the time, the PDP, repeatedly told us Nigerians that they were ready to rule for 60 years. There was a reason the PDP kept making those boastful comments. They were the only national party who had their spread in all the new concurrent of this country. Until the Bolatino Gurus and the Buaris of this world decided to merge together and form the ATC. But right now we have two dominant parties where in every word or every local government that you go to, you can see their imprint. Unfortunately, for you to win an election as big as the presidential election, you need to be visible in almost, if not all, local government areas. Sadly, as great as the momentum of EPITA or B, for example. And I love the fact that he's coming up and a lot of Nigerians are supporting him. But a lot still needs to be done by EPITA or B and the number of Nigerians supporting him to be able to match the kind of political clout and visibility that the likes of the APC with Chinubu and PDP with Attico have been able to garner over the years. Alright, let me come back to you, Uche. Again, from what Ufama has said, he's talking about the money politics part. So I'm going to tie it to the other question. Why do we expect change politically and otherwise if money politics always takes the day for whatever elections, whether it be local, state and of course at the federal level? Again, Ufama makes that case of the fact that these strongmen will continuously emerge because of the prowess that they have politically. When will the system give way for others to emerge, including those who have been tutored, mentored and even those who have the best of Nigeria at heart, the best ideas to lead us? When will there be a paving of way for these people if we ever want the kind of Nigeria that we're all praying for? I mean, it's going to be tough, very tough. However, there's a possibility that it will be unfair to move all the hope that is being carried into the 2023 elections, that will be the obedience wave that's going on right now. And the possibility I see is that we have two grids. When I use the word grids, I see that very good people would. Just how big they are. I think we are one in. And because of how their strengths and how they can match each other, there's a possibility of somebody just stealing the crumbs and taking anything can happen. That's really the only reason why it has a chance because we have two candidates, PTP and APC fighting head to head. So we can just come in from somewhere and just, you know, it's by chance. It's a very sad state to say Nigeria has become, we are now subject to chance happening for us to make some positive change. But honestly, at this point, that's what all of you have left. There is no working way for a proper country to emerge where good leaders and you are the best candidates who are intellectually standard and who can actually contribute and take Nigeria to the next level. The system as it is does not allow such people to emerge and that's the truth. But those people can emerge, there's something called chat fans. And they say it's time and chance happening to them all. If you go publicly, they talk about people don't think all of us means anything. They talk about people who are strong, who are straight, who are this, who are that. By the time people develop capacity, then their time and chance can happen. What we imagine right now, winning, can be a situation of where his time and chance happened, where he has developed himself, he has done this and done that and he's now the most prepared person there and his time and chance have happened. But he imagine not necessarily because he can compete money-wise he can compete, rich-wise he can compete and there's a path, there's a direct path. No, there's no path. We have to be truthful about that. But anything can happen. Does that time and chance happen in 2023? Is it possible? Do we see that emerging in the horizon? I ask because early this morning I was on the radio and I was talking about the fact that we are seeing every day more than ever more people leaving in droves. Is this the sign of, you know, more like we're throwing our hands up in the air or throwing in the tower as to how this country can make progress? Because I keep asking, when we all leave, who stays to make that change? Who will be the disruptors that we're hoping will emerge? I mean, we'll try. But we have a system where people write results. A hundred people might go vote and by the time you see the results they've changed, you know, the right whatever they want. Yes, we have the system where they're transmitting votes in real time and the electoral act has been changed. But have we tested this electoral act? This is the next election that's going to change the changes in the electoral act about transmission of results from the polling booth. We've seen the numbers that are being registered in the north and any constitution says, okay, the new system is like you register online and you see these numbers in the north and we know the internet connection is not outgrates the medugri and the bonds and all these remote places that have Boko Haram, but the numbers are increasing. So what does that tell you? I mean, you're preparing a situation whereby you write results and you can only write results if you have strong men who can defend their turf. And that's the reason why we talk about strong men. We don't talk about strong men because they have the command votes. No, we talk about strong men because they can command strength instead of the people who have the possibility and the ability to cost mayhem if things don't go their way. That's what a strong man is. A strong man is somebody who can go to the INEC official at the highest level, at the REC level, at the commissioners level and set to them and say, you know what, let's do this, let's settle in costs. Let anybody who has anything against us come to court and fight the matter, you know? And that's just how it is. Okay. So that's the nature of this step. It's not changing over the years. We can't expect it to change overnight, right? And I really don't know. It's time and chance can happen, but this is not the reality. Fine, new formal, we have just one minute. Uche seems to paint a picture. Let me just quickly ask. What shred of hope does the average Nigerian have to hold on to now? You're telling them not to jack bar, but then what should they stay for? What's the hope that we need to hold on to because we need something to hold on to? Okay. Just to correct a little bit of the notion, Nigeria is living in growth not back today. It will stop today. Back in the 80s when I was a child, I remember the song, people were living in growth in the 80s. People left in the 90s. People are living in the 2000s. People continue in the years that we are in right now. But that's not to say that the government in power are not doing enough. That's the honest reality that they are not doing enough. Also, the electoral act 2022, I've been saying this for God knows how long. I think it's one of the best things to happen to Nigeria. It's been tested already in the government election in 1956. We saw how prompt results come in. You see all of that reading that usually characterizes Nigerian elections. It is going to be reduced to the barest minimum in 2023. If you do not go out to converse for votes, I am sorry for you. If you are hoping to write results the way they've been writing it all this while. Marianne, I can assure you that the chances of that happening in 2022 is going to be reduced to the barest minimum. Which is why I think, to a large extent, that this stands a chance. What is the chance we have? We would have to wait until the elections come. Okay. Well, that's a way to put it. I want to say thank you to my guest, Uche Chita is a political analyst and Ufa Maikwamuna is the head of news with 99.3 Nigeria info here in Lagos. Thank you so much gentlemen for being part of the conversation. Thank you very much. All right. And that's the show tonight. I want to thank you all for being part of the conversation. Tomorrow is another day. We look at the big stories in the political scene right here in Nigeria. And sometimes we go outside of the country to spread our tentacles. I'm Marianne Anacon. I'll see you tomorrow. Have a good evening.