 Okay, welcome to the weekly charting analysis webinar with myself, Jasper Lawler. I've got the risk warning on the screen here, just cruising through that. And then we'll kick things off. So if you've been trading today, you'll know that we've had quite a big reversal in equities. We were a decent amount higher, notably in the Germany fairsy, you know, our product for the German DAX. That was up quite sizably. It's tanking now. We can see the state of the reversal here. Technically, you can see it's actually pretty sound what's taking place. So this is when we first broke the daily low to basically, potentially have broken the uptrend as it happened. We did go up and retest this trend line here. And we're basically down trending at the moment. And all we've seen is that prices came off last week's lows, hit that swing low point from the ninth, and have just rolled over in the last hour or two. As I've mentioned in the chart forum here, I suppose I'm getting pretty technical straight off the bat, but just to sort of talk about this equity decline and what it potentially means, is that we are actually at our third, if not fourth now attempt into oversold territory on the Germany fairsy. And we are running into the 10-200 potential support here from the peak here back in October. So, you know, never a great idea to fight the trend. We're down trending at the moment. But nonetheless, there's a confluence of a couple of things here that I suggest that maybe the markets can pick up in and around this 10-200 level. So, you know, if you are short from up here, just be cautious going into these lows. You know, the momentum is to the downside. So, you know, probabilities say that this will probably break, but just a couple of indications maybe with this downturn could actually slow down a bit, which would to some extent make sense, are we really going to sell off massively before the Fed announcement, before we even know what they do? It doesn't necessarily make sense. We kind of need the information first. To explain some of the declines and equities, we only have to look as far as all market. We were actually higher in, I think we were higher in WTI earlier on. There was a bit of divergence between Brent and WTI earlier on. One was higher, one was lower. Both distinctly lower now. And obviously, the prices that I tend to follow and that most of our traders use are the cash products for the futures. So, you know, this has slightly altered the past pricing. So, when we're looking at the chart here, you know, this is not to the dollar the 2008 low, but what you can basically see, I didn't actually mean to put it into WTI, is what I've been looking at more specifically over on this monthly chart. You know, we're basically below the 2008 low now. And by all readings, even looking at futures, we're below $35 per barrel. So, that was a big question mark, you know, earlier in the year when we were at 60. And the question was could we take out the 2008 low and we have. So, the possibility at this point is that we see a bit of a technical rebound at these old lows. But you can't find the fact that the market's incredibly bearish right now. And it's probably not massively wise to fight this clearly downtrend in oil. This is the short-term chart. So, this is that. So, just explaining that line up there, this was the sort of sideways market that we were dealing with for the good part of this year. Then as of November, we broke down there before the OPEC meeting. And then came back, tried to retest that line, barely even got there. I think we just about tested that low, not even. And we've rolled over pretty hard since into a fresh downtrend. So, when you were looking at that four hour chart, that's our kind of marker point up there for what changed the direction of the trend. And then probably, if and when we start coming back up, for the time being, it's going to be sort of around here at 41.20 for me or more clearly at 42.30-ish, which is going to be the sort of breaking point for the downtrend. But as you can see, we're far away from that at this point. So, depending on your trading strategies, if you're buying at deep value, buying at oversold, then we're pretty heavily oversold right now. But as you can see from the decline last year, sorry, from the early parts of this year, we could stay oversold for a long period of time. So, what's driving it? It's really still the backdrop of just the last OPEC meeting. They basically don't have a quota at OPEC anymore. OPEC is basically completely ineffectual. And as you can see from that rally that we just pulled up, basically every rally is being sold into. And there's no particular justification for buying oil at the moment. The worry is, and why equities come down with oil at the moment, is that it just means it could be a sign of slower global demand, which is obviously not great for the world economy and we need the economy to be taken along for companies to be doing well and some markets to do well. So, that's kind of focusing on today's action, but obviously the big one this week is the Federal Reserve. They're meeting on Wednesday evening. It's going to be after the close of European markets on Wednesday. So, really the action in Europe is going to take place on Thursday, but obviously when we're talking about FX and gold, if you want to be trading in and around the decision, it's going to be about 7 p.m. UK time and those markets will be live and reacting to, firstly, the announcement, and then secondly, to the statement, and then thirdly, to Janet Yellen's press conference. So, I mentioned in the morning note today, sort of turns where you sit on this, because if you believe that the market, you know, according to Fed's fund features, it's over 80% chance now that the Fed's going to hike this week on Wednesday. So, if you believe that markets are priced to in, then the decision itself shouldn't be what moves markets on the day. It should actually be the slightly less known bit about how the Fed are going to communicate what they're going to do going forward and how strongly they view the economy. I think the default assumption is that they sound pretty hawkish and they sort of insinuate steep rising rates after this first one. Then the markets should probably sell off pretty quickly. I think what people are looking for is a dovish hike whereby they basically signal that there's not one and done, but it's going to be a very slow pace of rate rises and maybe highlight some of the issues in the market. So, I mean, this is the dollar index. So, that's the daily chart. I can see it a bit more easily on the weekly chart. We sold off in the last couple of weeks. This basically started with the UCB meeting where the UCB disappointed my level of stimulus and the euro rallied and the dollar sold off. The euro is its largest component of the dollar index. So, the dollar is down a bit, but obviously a rate hike in itself, especially when pretty much every other central bank out there is looking to ease policy. The Bank of England is seeing quite a way away from raising rates, even though they're leaning towards a rate hike. They're one of the few that are. So, the Fed are right out there in themselves. So, the dollar is down a bit. So, if they are hiking and we were going purely off the decision itself, that would be maybe a buying them a dip opportunity, but the unknown bit is quite how they're going to communicate it. At the end of the day, inflation is low. All prices are heading lower, which means inflation could be suppressed for a longer period. And the manufacturing is in a borderline recession in the U.S. at the moment. And so, it's not the strongest economy to be doing a rate hike. It's arguably a bit late in the economic cycle to be doing a rate hike. What a lot of people are saying is it's going to be very shallow this time around, where the kind of equivalent to the rate hike this time was when they tapered quantitative easing. That was the first tightening. Now, this rate hike is just a little shallow bit towards the end of the cycle. So, it's slightly different from usual, where actually usually the first rate hike is a sign that the economy is going great guns. We've got a couple of years left of strong markets. That's not quite the case this time. It could be the signal of the end, which partly explains why we're selling off a lot today. Now, economic data-wise, not much today. Excuse me. We have druggy speaking today, but not much else. And so, really probably we're looking towards tomorrow when we have CPI from the U.K. And then more importantly, probably the last thing, if anything, that could actually derail a Fed rate hike is U.S. CPI. And we've also got Germans to DW. So, actually quite a few, you know, today's a bit of an exception, but the rest of the week is quite jam-packed with the economic data. That's just because next week it's going to be fairly dead as we head into Christmas. And so they've crowned all the data in towards this week. So, the expectation is that CPI month-over-month is flat. The thing with the Fed is that they don't focus in on core CPI. That's not their target inflation number, but obviously it's widely watched. But what makes the Fed different from other central banks is they focus on core prices. And core prices obviously strip out the effect of oil for the most part, apart from those sort of secondary effects. So, CPI year-of-year is expected to be in around 1.9. So, that's actually quite reasonable and maybe enough for them to justify hiking rates. The worry is that, obviously, that all prices have dragged down the headline rate and do start to tug on CPI. And so maybe they hike rates and inflation starts to drop into this first half of next year. Which would not be the greatest timing. And markets would view it as a policy error. And that could mean quite a lot of risk-off market performance. So, CPI would definitely want to watch tomorrow, on tomorrow. And then it's basically PMI's for the order of the day on Wednesday, as well as average earnings and unemployment data from the UK on Wednesday. And we've got so the European CPI data as well, which is expected to remain flat still outside of the deflation territory. And that single number itself goes a long way to explain why the ETB did disappoint a couple of weeks ago. When they did their first stimulus, it was minus 0.6. As they added to stimulus in their December meeting, it was plus 0.1. So, just not a desperate situation in deflation that they need to fight. Still obviously low, but mostly caused by low oil prices and not as low as it's been. And then obviously we've got the Fed statement later on Wednesday. And we've got UK retail sales, German iPhone Thursday morning. We've got the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday, which is quite apt because we could see disappointment there. And it would raise further questions over whether the rate hike, if indeed it does take place, was the right decision. And then we actually have the Bank of Japan at the tail end of the week on early Friday morning. We'll have the press conference. And that's pretty much it done for the week. So it's all centering in on Wednesday, obviously. So we looked at the German DAX. Let's look at some of the other indices here. So, daily chart for the UK 100. As you can see, pretty much no trend here. You know, that's what we can call this. This area here is just pure consolidation. If we zoom out to the weekly chart, we can kind of get a little bit of context on this. So here rising trend, potentially broken trend line retest, potentially timber down to 5,000 and below, perhaps. You know, that's the kind of gravity of what we're potentially dealing with at the moment, is a major downtrend ensuing in the UK 100. But obviously if we hold above those lows, that's not the case. It's just a consolidation. That's where we are at the moment. Now on the shorter term, it distinctly is a trend. And these are the lows that we've been taking out. What first drew our attention to getting on the shorter side of the market was where I've got this X here. You know, you can even draw in line and just sort of say, you know, that, that low. And then again, we've got a bit of a bounce from there. I had a couple of days above it and then dropped through. That's where this hopes of this uptrend pushing us up into a Santa rally faded pretty quick. And now we're in a bit of a sledge crash. So that was the turning point. And now we're running down in towards these kind of critical levels. So this was, you know, this could cause a bounce. We have two levels of, two lows here that helped this five, eight, seven, five-ish form a potential support. But really the critical one is down here at that obvious low. Because that's what it'll tell us if we're tipping lower again. At the moment, it's a range bound environment. Yes, it's aggressively a downtrend on the short term. And for short term trades, you know, if you're sticking with the trend, you're basically, you're looking for sales right now. But as we head into these two areas, there's definitely the scope for a rebound. And, you know, that lines up with what we were seeing in the Germany 30. Potentially a bit oversold right now within a sort of range environment. So we haven't actually had a decent test of this. So we do get back up to this 650 level. Potentially that's an area that the downtrend could resume. It really sort of depends on whether we've got down to one of these support levels first. That would increase the chance of actually breaking above here. But even from above those levels, we get another little push higher. Potentially that's an area to sell into. But it already looks like we have a bit of a kind of reversal candlestick into this 6,000 level, which is obviously the big psychological level that we dropped through last week. As far as U.S. markets. This is our short-term four-hour chart. Here was the kind of distinguishing mark for me. That kind of high bull tell a couple of days, which again was the ECB meeting. And so you can see that kind of better on the daily chart as well. Here we pushed higher. We made a lot of swing low. And we were looking to build up off there for a break of 18,000. But it just didn't happen. And we had those couple of tricky days and had that level close down here. And that's when that basically uptrend lost its steam. And it could have chopped around and eventually broken. But as it turns out, we failed to get above that level for about three days running. And then we collapsed. And so as of the moment, we're basically rolling off that previous low pretty perfectly in a fairly coordinated steep downtrend. It's a choppier downtrend when you have a new low and then the peak comes up. Here we failed to bounce off these old lows and we pushed up to the peak again. Now that's more of a choppier downtrend. Here is a more of a uniform kind of aggressive downtrend taking place. But again, as we head into this, this is kind of critical because if we zoom out to this daily chart, you can see that this is basically a pretty classic double top. So if we do close below that low from November, as I mentioned in the chart forum here, that's about 900 points, the height of this pattern. So 900 below 17-100 takes us down to 16-200, which would be quite a serious sell-off. And it would take us back down to those lows from September. I think you probably all know by this point, but if there are any questions or particular markets you want me to have a look at, please just let me know. So since the Fed is the focus, well, it's a tough one because FX is likely to move a good amount in and around the Fed meeting, but we are seeing some pretty steep sell-offs and commodities at the moment. Let's have a look at gold. So this is how I see gold at the moment. This is our four-hour chart here. So steady downtrend and then on that ECB day, no, I think it was the nose, the non-farm payrolls day after the ECB where we flew higher in gold broke the declining trend. And so this was the point in which the trend broke, taking out that old high there. But since we've not quite been able to build on it, obviously leading to this Fed meeting, not necessarily the kind of time you'd want to own gold. And so you can see that we've bounced off this 61.8%. The initial bounce there, we weren't able to get through the peak, came down again. Now we're trying to rebound from the 61.8%. That's not quite working out at the moment. Could still hold. If you're going on the assumption that this uptrend is going to continue, that this was a breakout and that we're going to see an uptrend here, and this is just a consolidation, then we're getting into decent value areas in order to buy on that potential move higher. But as you can see from this moving average, the trend is still pretty downwards. And if you put out the daily chart here, you can see that it's a steep downtrend that you're trying to buy into here. And that may be all we get, just a bit of a kind of short covering following that non-farm payrolls result. Gold rallying on good US data is a bit of a strange one. I mean, it wasn't fantastic, but it was generally thought of as enough to justify the Fed raising rates this month. So maybe some explanation of this rallying gold is that the Fed are about to embark on a policy era, as I mentioned before, and so if that was the case, you'd want to have hold some safer assets like gold in case somehow this policy decision worked out badly. And the economic data continued to disappoint after the decision, and maybe markets sell off even harder than they have been already. We touched on oil a bit already. Pull-up Brents, that's the one falling the most today. And as you can see on this long-term chart, we're ramming right into these 2008 lows. And so obviously a pretty similar picture to WTI where this was the kind of breakdown point where we had been pretty much, we'd had a nice rally off the low sideways, but then gave way here. Couldn't even retest and just rolled straight down. Pretty similar scenario. And you know, even from looking at this daily chart, you can't even see some opportunities to sell a bounce here. You have to zoom into the lower charts. And so be aware that this is how I have my 2008 low right at this 36-20 type level. Again, according to cash prices, which doesn't quite line up to the futures price, it's been adjusted to make the chart make sense. But you know, there's scope for a good solid bounce in this area. But you know, if we don't get to that and we get a little tip up to this former low first, you know, given the strength of the downtrend, you can imagine a few people might be getting on board short from that 37-23 type area. You know, I noticed I've got my kind of currency list scroll to the bottom here. The Chinese Yuan is something that the markets got to focus on at the moment. This is the offshore Yuan that we offer. You know, this is so CNH as in sort of the offshore traded through Hong Kong, H-Hong Kong, rather than CNY, which is the mainland rate, because that's basically not sort of, not really accessible and determined by the People's Bank of China every day. But as you can see, we're pushing into those peaks from August. You know, no coincidence that it was the equity market crash that happened in August as this dollar Yuan was peaking and we're seeing equity markets crash up again and here we are, the dollar Yuan is rising. So this is a difficult one to trade, I would suggest, well technically at least. But the thought process is at the moment that the People's Bank of China are trying to weaken the Yuan to and separate the dollar, separate away from the dollar which they have a peg to in anticipation of this Fed rate hike which could mean more dollar strength. But if we get back to the majors here, this is the euro situation as I see it. We're in this pretty steep downtrend in the anticipation of stimulus, massive reversal. And then we couldn't even get down to any of these kind of lower peaks. We basically rebounded off that peak here. And we basically, we formed a couple of Harami patterns here where the body of the candlesticks formed inside the previous day and it's just short of showing uncertainty. And so a breakout from the top or bottom of this consolidation area is going to tell us the direction of the next trend. Of course it could be a fake out. But in no coincidence really, this is taking place at the 110 round number. And we could get a little push-up to 111 because that to me is a better technical support from these lows in September 3rd and 23rd before the Fed meeting, but really I can't see us going too far. I think the market is going to be pretty sideways. The dollar is going to be pretty sideways before the Fed meeting unless we get some sort of pre-meeting hint as to what's going to happen. Maybe some Fed speaker said something quite overt before the meeting. I don't think, I don't know why they would do that. So I think we're probably heading sideways and where this finally breaks is going to be discerned by the Fed. But if we do break higher, some resistance to bear in mind is that 111. And then failing that, I think because of the steepness of the sell-off, we're probably looking at just maybe this potential declining trendline, which depending on when it happens, could line up quite well with that broken downtrend line. So a confluence of potential resistance up there in the sort of 112 vicinity at the moment as it stands. Yeah, I've been through various upper trendlines here. And this is just the most simplistic one, I think, going from this large peak up here and using this one. You know, you could arguably go for this. And that would explain why we're selling off here. We have that peak. We've got a little false break there. And now we're falling away from it. But this is more sort of a clear cut one. And so potential we could push higher again. And there is some confidence to support from this 200-day-moving average, this declining trendline, and this November 19th peak up in around this sort of 153 parity level, as I mentioned on the chart forum there. But at the moment, what we're dealing with is a bearish engulfing candlestick with the dollar getting strength. So again, I don't see a massive rally in the dollar leading into the meeting. But fundamentally, dollar strength is what makes sense here. And if we are anticipating a rate hike, the dollar should kind of strengthen. But again, it just depends on what the defense say in their statement and in the yelling speech. So again, a bit set off here. But I'm not too sure how far it can get. Maybe this is what we've got for today. And we come off these loads here. And actually maybe we spike down there, but maybe it ends up being another Harami type day in the pound. So just coming into the end of it here, a quick look at the yen. A good technical trade for those who are able to catch this one because we had this tight consolidation for a long period of time, three failed attempts at a break in hire here. We had this just to explain that pink line. I mean, I've had it on there for a while, but those new to attending, it's just a simple one up through those loads. A long-term trend line showing a retest. Consolidation couldn't push back through the rising trend line again and rolled over. It's the kind of long-term scenario as I see it. And we broke through this floor, came back, perfectly retested, and then sunk massively down below 121. So there's some potential support from this rising trend line and these lows down in the one, and just the round number of 120. But we are back below the 200-day moving average now. And it could mean a sink back down to the bottom of this previous floor, which is more like sort of 118-70 I mentioned in the chat forum. These kind of level down here if I draw a line. It's kind of just going somewhere in here. On the short term, I think we could potentially still have some more room to go. We're not oversold, and we've got some large support down here around the 120 level that could attract the sellers. So maybe a bit more of a sell-off to go. We've bounced into that old low, so it shows a good strong bound trend for the time being. So given that we bounced off the old low, not the peak, it's a good chance we'll break this low and maybe run into that support down there. Okay, yeah, that's that half an hour. So thank you all for attending. I hope that was helpful. Good luck with trading this week. It's probably the biggest week of the year for markets with the Fed finally looking to raise rates. We'll see what happens. Either way, the volatility should be good for trading. So yeah, good luck with it. And I'll talk to you next Monday, but FYI on the 28th there won't be any webinar. We'll take a break over Christmas and we'll be back again on Monday the 4th of January. But yeah, anyway, talk to you next week. Chasp a little signing out.