 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday July 28th 2021 I'm Chief Meteorologist John Hemsworth for Longmont Public Media today. I'm coming to you from a campground picnic table at 9,600 feet to the west of Pikes Peak Started July 31st last day of the month. We have a third quarter moon rising just after midnight and setting in the early afternoon So you can look forward if you're walking around outside Take a look at drought drought is getting a little less each week We're getting more precipitation on the western slopes So if you look from last week to this week, you can see some definite relief down here in the southwest Definitely where we need it. Fantastic Nationally we see an erosion of drought conditions from Colorado down through New Mexico This is still last week's map You'll see a worsening of drought across the northern tier of states as we step forward to this week So we definitely need more precipitation. We will see in the water vapor Forecast maps some atmospheric moisture returning to the Pacific Northwest. So hopefully that's some good news Take a look at the smoke though with all that we saw fires in the west and see them in the Oregon area here. We have one local one here up in the northwest north-central part of the state But some big fires up in Canada and in Montana But for now, this is kind of arcing over the top of the state. We have very low Smoke in this part of the nation. This is the entire atmospheric depth of smoke You can see right here in the end. It is starting to kind of come down We will be seeing a big cold front come down in the end of the week That's going to be a great relief But that could also bring some of the smoke back with it Let's take a look at surface smoke. This is stuff that directly affects us. You can see it in the northern mountains I see that same little surge southward, but on the eastern plains for now. It's quite minimal Here's our relief bringing precipitation For Colorado the front range right down here didn't get much except south of Denver and Colorado Springs But look at these mountains in the front range itself central mountains and then down towards the four corners area two to three inch Rainfalls over large swaths of area. We still need Some moisture to make it up in the northwest part of the state, but this is good relief So the big story here is this gigantic ridge and we've sort of dealt with this thing for much of the last two years it has really preferred to anchor itself over the Rockies for quite a while now and that's based on Sea surface temperatures and the global It's called the Rossby wave pattern but the pattern of the jet stream is what it's more locally known as We do have this federal moisture being drawn around and it's it's definitely bringing monsoonal flow into the West Arizona has seen some good drought relief as well So here's the water vapors headlight image. You can see that moisture coming up around the high pretty much centered over our heads right now That's what's bringing the extreme heat at the beginning of the forecast period So Tuesday Wednesday Thursday really hot almost certainly record breaking temperatures from most places in, Colorado But there is moisture and there is energy and so that means wherever the atmosphere isn't capped Which means the apartment was too warm for thunderstorms to get going We can get thunderstorms and the mountains can help that so right along i-25 and the rest of the state can get some storms on Wednesday It won't be many, but we even saw to pop up on Tuesday down In the area of the state that I'm camping in right now I'm going to Thursday. We can see a little marginal risk up here as the front begins to approach and The mountains i-25 quarter all Able to get thunderstorms not severe, but they're able to get some then that area of Most capped atmosphere sinks to our southeast and the rest of the state can get thunderstorms on Friday So the big weather change comes over the weekend. This is sort of Saturday night Sunday morning look You can see this gigantic ridge overhead, but there's this weakness in the middle You have a low pressure circulation in the middle of it There goes the wind Good nature sounds in the recording. Hopefully it's not too distracting and with that Low and a surface flow down here in the panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma. We have a good draw of moisture coming out of the Tropical regions of the Gulf It's my stroke into the Western states Someone associated with the Flow from the Gulf also from the Pacific so at the peak here, this is Really sunny morning. We see widespread showers and thunderstorms falling over much of the state including up in the Northwest So that's good news So let's put it in motion and watch so here's our gigantic Heat-producing record temperature ridge at the beginning of the forecast period we're into Friday now you can see Shortwave kind of connecting in as we're going to Saturday and Sunday This kind of punches down east of us There's a little trough in there and then the high gets shoved way down to Southern California The ridge axis to our west and we get either northerly flow Or northwesterly flow bringing cooler air so into Thursday like that and the high comes back Overhead being pushed off to the east Next weekend, so August 7th there. It's a big trough coming into the West Coast that could mean big changes for the heat out there finally Okay, and look at these temperatures when you see all those blue blobs pop up That's the afternoon thunderstorms or they are here's our Amazing heat going into the weekend. Here comes the cold front sweeping down on the planes and then moisture in the west cool air the east of the Rockies giving us cooler temperatures than normal On into Monday and the heat starts to build again to our west. There's the cool air starting to depart I'm going to Wednesday and Thursday the heat returns. You can see every afternoon the thunderstorms pop up drop cool air And that's seen in the model here so the moisture source is what we look for for the Summer months and you can see lots of monsoonal moisture. This is abnormal Precipitatable water in the atmosphere over the entire western US So this ridge as it does its thing really gets filled up with tropical moisture. So anything that allows The atmosphere get cooler aloft and hot below will allow those thunderstorms to dump water on The southwest and we'll take a look at the future radar and you can see these thunderstorms largely over the Arizona Utah Western parts of the state through the Early part of this week as we go into the weekend the low forms Lee at the mountains and there's storms spreading out on the planes Day after day for the weekend into Monday Then the showers kind of return to a monsoonal Western slopes look as mountains again southeastern plains into Wednesday and Thursday still the moisture keeps flowing into Arizona and Utah So we're making up into Montana by next weekend. So Looking over the next three days before the weekend cold front arrives The rain is in Western Colorado Event, which is great. That's where we need it at the weekend and significant water is falling over the northern central part of the state including the Longmont and Good rains on the western slopes some even making it out on the eastern plains at the next five days and The mountains really are getting some significant relief. So This is great. This is a way to avoid Rapid fires in the fall like we had last year so we start The seven-day period really roasting 103 and a hundred on Thursday the cool down begins Friday cold front arrives Afternoon evening thunderstorms are possible with that front and then dramatically cooler. It's it's gonna feel chilly 70s for the weekend 50s at night with Human conditions and a pretty good chance of rain and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon for the thunderstorm activity And then into next week we start to warm up. We do return to the 90s later in the week But not as bad as it was this week for frequent weather updates and local news Check out the Longmont leader at Longmont leader comm I've been chief meteorologist John insworth from the campground where a chipmunk has been threatening to interrupt the show Keep looking up