 All right. Hello everyone testy. All right, we should be all good to go Sure, I'll plugged in here Today we're going to go over our market outlook So one of our fact-based trading solutions Pretty comprehensive And we're going to get into Live action here. What's happening? on the market outlook Before we get into it just want to go through a disclosure that everything that we're doing here is educational and If you are trading we recommend you definitely want to be using risk capital to trade So what are fact-based trading? What is this? You know fact-based trading involves making decisions based on objective data and an analysis rather than subjective emotions or opinions So having a fact focus focus on market truths and Have that as your foundation Not having a foundation based on opinions. It's the one we're talking about fact focus. We're going to build and get into What all this means so it's got clarity and Why we have a commentary in our Outlook and what's that meant to do? And for our fact focus we focus on three primarily things price structure Time phase and market structure, and when we're talking about price structure, we're talking about a Open-high-low close chart. I Like open-high-low close charts. I prefer them over candles candles. You don't really aren't able to really see the structure in the market And so I like to have just kind of pure structure to look at when I'm Making my trading decisions And so that's what we recommend as well for the market outlook You're we're going to focus on the weekly time frame and Weekly time frame meaning the weekly structure. So You know one day is the daily structure one week is the weekly structure one month monthly structure It's it doesn't mean that we're trading on a weekly basis It means we're using the structure to day trade to pursue swing trade to position trade. That's the structure. We're going to key off The weekly structure is nice because it's it's still active A lot of times you're getting full moves that play out during one trading session but they're bigger moves and Since it's weekly structure. It's a it has a better stain power than the daily which can be a little porous sometimes So we like that we like the balance between using the daily is kind of a trigger within the weekly structure and What are the key points that we're looking at on this on that time frame? You know really any time frame our focus is on the high low for the period the last or Close and the midpoint and so what we want to do is, you know, we're identifying the week and And For crypto that's going to be seven days and for futures markets and equities That's going to be five days for the week. So crypto's got Saturday and a full Sunday Futures have just the evening part of Sunday, which is really considered a Monday, but that's how we're gonna break that down so I'm gonna switch to some live charts here and we're going to Start to build our fact foundation So we've got Bitcoin here Here's our outlook and so we're gonna start to deconstruct this and then we'll come back and we'll and we'll build that back up so the first thing we're going over is the price structure and So what we're doing is this is last week's action. We've got our seven. This is our past seven days We're identifying the high price for last week the low price for last week the midpoint The symmetrical midpoint and then also the close so this is a trading range and This is going to act as this structure or previous week's high and we use our acronyms PWH Previous week's high. This is going to act as resistance previous week's lows is going to act as support and The previous week midpoints going to act as a rotational number So once the structure is violated it's going to act as a momentum level in that direction same with the downside and Then the previous week's midpoint is it going to act as a momentum level. So trading above here It's going to be leaning for a press to the upside structure Below the previous week's midpoint. It's going to make a play for the previous week low the close is The one thing that is dynamic within this previous week high low and midpoint because it could be end up being anywhere here So in and it really comes into play more at the end of the time period So the end of the week, but you can use it as a guide And so anytime, you know, you're looking at the market They were you up for the week or down for the week simple as that but that's a good That's an interesting bias and that can help Propel and lead into bigger momentum moves and it also can help to identify and support Momentum so here the previous week's close was it was a key validator for the previous week's midpoint so above the midpoint were positive on this opening here and Validating and trading above the previous week's close is another positive Giving us the potential to make a play to test the previous week's high and then here we're getting a violation of the high I think it's giving us some momentum here. So this is our price structure foundation and These are the acronyms that you'll see on the chart and in our commentary so we're not So those are good things to notice Now the next thing we're going to focus on so that's our the price structure is our base layer fact foundation and The next layer that we're going to bring on And this is time phase and time phase is part of price discovery The process which is determined by major market participants at the start of the session So the opening phase and at the end of the that's the time frame or settlement phase of each trade period so You know during the day and then between crypto markets and futures markets, you know Futures markets you have the centralized exchanges with you know define banking hours, especially for let's say the S&P 500 you know The old-school opening was 8 30 a.m The closing at 3 15 Kind of settlement after that up until 4 o'clock, but that's it you know, then you have the overnight session and so You know the settlement phase on the futures is really defined because it's a lot of it's based off of you know Interest rates and having to borrow money to cover your margins. You still have to do the same thing at crypto typically most People that are lending out funds are still settling up at traditional hours even though crypto is 24 7 There's no real close But UTC standard time is pretty much the recognized, you know opening and close of for crypto and so But these settlement phases still coming to play and people have to settle up and also after they settle up You have the opening and so after you know during the opening phase you've got, you know cut new orders coming in and This creates, you know a special time period special Context to you know when you're in the settlement phase You know Understanding that you've got some big big players need to come in and get out They're gonna they can really drive the market and if you're getting low liquidity price moves more likely You're not being sustained. They're just squeezing out weak hands that have to get out And then as the opening comes up comes in you're gonna have some You know big buy orders come in some big sellers come in and they're gonna you know They're gonna push the market around and create that range and that range is something that's that's Interesting and it's going to you know give us some insight to What the market might do next? So here what I've done is I've identified You know, so we're looking at crypto here and this is basically Saturday And then we have Sunday's range hold on one second. Yeah, I got my chart a little messed up here Here we go. So we've got our This is Sunday, we've got Monday, and we're into Tuesday now so on the settlement range we had a super tight range and Again, we're building that fact foundation so that we you know as the settlement range is defined by the Saturday range And we've got our and we come into the opening we're gonna key off that and it was really everything was consolidated around the previous week's midpoint, but again, this is the kind of the alignment that we look for and Validation above the previous week's close. We talked about now. We're getting validation above the settlement the market's making a decision and We come up and test the previous week's high point just defining the opening range settlement range So at this at this time the mark, you know, here you've got the new, you know one during the settlement range It's tight Start of a new trade start of the new week Market just starts to take off We've got new orders that are coming in and it just drives the market drives it right through the previous week's high and We it makes a new opening range high So we've got it, you know a breakout of the settlement range Help to initiate this rally into the previous week's high and then we took it out. So this is a positive signal Now we're coming in to this price discovery phase and the market immediately after the opening Dips back below it. And so what do we have on the opening range? We've got the upper structure the lower structure or the opening range low So we've got the you know for the settlement phase. We have this settlement range high Midpoint and low and we have the opening range high Midpoint and low and so those are the acronyms that we're using so when we're here on the market, it's trading up, you know sustained trade above this price point is going to give us an Expectation that we could see at least a 50% if not a hundred percent expansion of this range For not able to hold above the opening range high We should anticipate a test of the opening range midpoint if not the opening range low as the market As the price discovery phase gets into play and it's trying to determine Oh, we're gonna we're extending on this opening range surge or not. Is this valid or not and The opening range midpoint can be a great momentum level if that's true So we use all the tools that we have, you know looking at price, you know Just classic price structure higher move highs higher move lows You know, we've got this nice price structure here Which is an alignment with with the previous week high point and it's also now in alignment with the opening range midpoint So this becomes a real key Inflection point for the market if you want to follow me on Twitter This is something that I in addition to the market outlook that I sent out, you know, we made this Once this range was defined it really came everything really started to align right the previous week's high point Which became the the big pivotal area and that's where we're at. That's where we're currently are so now Summit range affects the opening phase Now the opening range is going to affect the rest of the week So we're gonna this this range is going to come into play this midpoint is going to remain a good momentum level It's not going to change the previous week's high is not going to change And then if we look at the opening range low that's coming into play at, you know, right within this band here So now we've got some pretty good definition of You know Above here. It's all systems go because we're above the previous week's high We get below here. It's a retest of this area Still more of digestive And we get a failure here. It's a different story now. We're expecting a test of this area if not lower So it's just reading reading structure What are the facts? This is what you need to know. This is what money is looking at What are these factual foundations? Where do I need where do people need to make adjustments? You know, if you're if you're in a short position or you're above the previous week's high you need to take note of that You know the next section that we're going to go through is market structure. So we've touched on this before and market structure differs from price structure because market structure is I is Defining what the structure is of the current market state. So if we're looking at price structure You know, yes, we're looking at the actual high low last and midpoint of each bar. We're also looking at price structure patterns so in a Definition of a bull trend is higher move highs higher move lows So a market that's trending higher and those bars are The lower lows are always lower and the highs are always higher and that tells us that we're in a trend And when that stops to be true then the bull trend is no longer true And so the market structure is defining those Specific price points that will validate or deny that trend. So in this example We have a a bull trend. We're defining the upper you know bull trend extension point when does that trend start to make new highs and We are also identifying the low points of a first structure break and a second structure break for when that trend is no Longer true. And so these are our structure analytics. This is our proprietary analytics and It's identifying where these shifts in state will occur and by using these different qualifiers You're able to standardize this method across all markets So this price map structure analytics we define the market structure with basically Two different studies one what we call our sentiment bias or our level basking over under number and Our critical range which is our upside pivot and downside pivot UP and DP and So you have this hard structure of an upside pivot and a downside pivot and you have a sentiment bias They can kind of shift throughout the market. So based on where sentiment is within the price map structure You know gives us insight to any trade signals that are occurring or Where the market's trading within its price structure and price discovery And so the our level is the sentiment bias. So this is the you know, really the the Point of equilibrium for the the market. This is where most of the liquidity is going to be This is where you know, the really the sentiments can change from positive to negative and so if we're looking at the The weekly our level, that's the weekly sentiment if we we may in the outlook put a daily Sentiment bias in there and that sentiment basket be effective for the for the day for the trade session we we may also look sometimes at what the Monthly sentiment biases and how if that's coming into play, you know And so that we'll make note of that in our outlook as well but the key thing here is just to understand that this is where the energy of the market is and The market's going to gravitate towards those levels and you know, the farther we move away from it Yes, the less the less value the influence will have but if we do get a break in momentum Heading for that, you know, sort of shifting sentiment, you know, that that's kind of the target for that shift so if we're go back to our Live action and we are going to add the Our level This is our sentiment Bias and sentiment for this week is above the market for Bitcoin at twenty eight thousand six hundred eighty four We also have this this metric boundary surrounding this level, so this is kind of the area of interest in influence and Once the market starts to enter that boundary It's in effect in the in the power of that sentiment bias can also use this as For your risk management for your order entry spreading orders within this zone Using breaches of the zone as for stops or or the different metrics for adjusting your stops The boundaries are a great tool and so just You know just reading through these analytics that we have here. I'm going to remove the move my low to Move the settlement range so We have a market that Starts out above the midpoint above the close. That's positive. We know we've got a previous week's high That's going to have some influence. We're gonna get a positive signal above that, but where can that go? We're coming into sentiment. So this is the big, you know pivotal point for the week So we're selling rallies against this point. We're buying breakouts above it And so at the start of the week, we have a play for sentiment So this break out here, you know, even above the critical range the fact that it right on the opening We get a test of the boundary and now we're back down below it these are situations that occur in real time and and This is when we get into the microstructure, which we're going to talk a little bit about later And this is you know, basically telling us the influence, you know This has the influence and that's why we're here. And so that's why this price point is becoming Significant because it's it's a little bit of a war between are we going higher above this structure? Are we going lower because we're below sentiment? You're building on this fact foundation. We're going to add the critical range You know, so we we know where sentiment is now It's above the market and we know that sentiment can be at different price points on this critical range or within this price map And this is setting the structure boundaries for the state. So let's Let's add those Critical range here so we can see that they are level Which is represented by this by green is on the upside pivot And now we're going to add the critical range So this is interesting You know again, this is what we look for all the time is alignment, you know, where are the you know where does the truth align and Here's our downside pivot at 25,153 Here's the upside pivot The directional is the midpoint of the critical range. It's not The symmetrical midpoint like the previous week's midpoint is the symmetrical midpoint. This is not necessarily symmetrical But what we can see here is that the Metric boundaries You take into account the previous week's midpoint. So this whole zone here from basically, you know 27,000 down to 26,600 is going to act as support and this is going to be really the pivotal point For Bitcoin for this week, you know, if this mark if sentiment's negative, it's going to start to roll over here It's going to come test this area It's not going to be able to hold and this will be this would be a big failure in Bitcoin We've seen the market trade and hold below 26,600 the market is you know basing here That's going to tell us another thing and If it does get a play for this level, you know, can it base there and stabilize for potentially another test of sentiment We've got a lot of news coming out. So there's a lot going on Just want to note that the price map is a full risk management overlays So not only do we have our critical range and our reversal level, but we also have target projections If the market breaks out of that range to the upside and downside and we also have what we call validation points That help to identify that the market is Making moves from one side of the critical range to the next. So I'm going to put those on So these are really designed to help you manage your trade And also provide insight so If you look at this price map as a ladder It just adjusts these a little bit You know if as the market's climbing the ladder, it should you know hold hold above each rung So it you know gets above here so it'll start home of that metric make a play here start to stabilize And if it's going to continue to trend it's going to continue to climb the ladder When it stops climbing the ladder, you know, is there any other confluence? That wouldn't that we need to you know validate that the that rung has been broken. Well in this situation. Yes, you know We've got this produce weeks high So if we start training below here, that's going to that would validate the fact that This market's having a hard time climbing this ladder if it's really positive. It's going to be basing above 2,800 and If we can't hold a rung we're probably going to come down to the next one in a general sense When we look at the you know the bigger picture And if we look at the critical range Which is the upside pivot and the downside pivot if we get a breakout of that range? We're giving here's some of the upside targets this level will be a key validation point that this breakouts true and For more information on you know the full price map and different strategies You can come on to our go to our website come on for a trial Of our analytics and we've got full tutorials that get into the whole the whole price map But we're not going to get into that today. So again the metrics have these surrounding boundaries and You can see how that you know the market kind of uses those this is a minor level. So this isn't this happens You know, it's a it's a Area to use to manage a position You can see how that you know the boundary came in to play here You know as the market's moving higher. It's holding positive structure. It's basing above this metric You know, that's this is how you know, you can use these metrics to manage your position So now let's take a look at the The outlook just squeeze this in here So in our market outlook, we're you know highlighting the the market we're Focused on this is the Bitcoin weekly It's a perpetual contract We put the the day in and this is really as a reminder for the price discovery. So we know that Since we're dealing with the crypto market Actually, we're on Tuesday Had a good long weekend So Tuesday is a price discovery So Monday it sets our opening range and we have that set here and here We are talking about that Bitcoin is on the fence and it's rotating off the 27 500 level After a challenge to the weekly sentiment bias our level metric boundary so the whole goal of this commentary is to identify the truth Try to avoid, you know, really the interpretation of the facts and Do our best not to Put too much subjectivity but take our experience and working with the facts and what's more likely to occur and Currently we've had a test so we may go to that anything, you know, basically we don't Keep things real brief here. We do give a little, you know color in our highlight truth test meaning Hey, we've you know, is this for real is this strength that we had at the end of what, you know End of last week and beginning of this week real Well, they're making it they're gonna make a truth test here. Why, you know, they're you know This previous weekly high point is gonna be important. So we say stay nimble, you know, be flexible, you know This this isn't valid, you know, we're not really confirmed if this thing was gonna scale it should just keep going It's not so are we gonna wait for all the news to come out this week at one time? And you know or not or are we gonna you know kind of you know move things into the news? You know, so there's mixed signals abound, you know held trade above 27 500 keeps the positive energy engaged for another run at 2900 so basically Clarifying it, you know as long as we're above here. Hey, we're gonna go press into this area a lot of times You know as the market moves into a major structure point It likes to you probe into it, you know, so you push into it once push into it twice You know the third time it's either gonna bust through or that's it and so that's you know It's three strikes to a top, you know It you know can happen and those are you know just different things to look for but where's all that occurring? And the fact that that's occurring above the previous week's high point is important versus if this was moved down here And we're pressing into it then all of a sudden you've got more of a potential for a negative So we're expecting a reaction on the initial challenge in market makes a push up here We're expecting it to react. We've got a lot of news. Is it gonna fall through? Or not so the retest in this area take it out by a little bit and then squeeze people Doesn't mean this this momentum's over just means that we expect a reaction Now if we start if we do get a reaction the market does get a push here and gets up to 2900 But and it starts to base, you know, we start to hold a trade above 28 600 So we're holding above here, you know, that's going to be a sign of strength and That could project, you know Bitcoin up to 31 Thousand or even 33,000. So if we just if we take taking a look at that I'm on a webinar so I lost my Lost my life chart here Come back to this So basically if we're looking at 3,100 and 3,300, you know, 30, you know If we based on the price map analytics, typically when we get a breakout, we'll get what we call it Average to average price map distance moves So average price map distance is the distance between two major levels So one two so here if we get a violation of the upside pivot a great guy the critical range one two Brings us up to like 3,200 basis the weekly and we also have some confluence with some longer-term Structure that comes into play a little higher So 3,300 becomes is a big point. What's interesting about today that you need it We need to make note of is we are in the You know, and we're in the last part of the settlement period for the month So every month we're gonna have a new structure as well, and that's gonna be a big influence so typically You know in a situation like today that the key long-term structure is Either the weekly or the quarterly and for us You know being shorter-term traders looking for opportunity We're you know that the weekly structure is really key as soon as the New we get the new month that we get the new monthly structure then we'll start to integrate that more into our commentaries And what and what we're looking at because the monthly will start to have more influence. So then you know, typically what we're doing is we're identifying the initial Bias and that's based on when we're coming into the market. Typically. We're you know at updating the analytics Between you know We're focused on UTC time. So and and the we wait till after the roll at Midnight for me in Chicago, that's around 7 p.m Sometimes we might wait through the opening range So the first four hours so we might you know wait till after 11 Me in Chicago or you know 4 a.m. UTC time To to make a post update But depending on where the market price is at that time within the structure That's what that you know will typically state the initial bias The market is showing us at this point. You know a lot of times that changes in a minute and we got and But you know, that's what we're doing when we hit the post and then we'll do the more of the hedge So we're you know, we're really trying to identify those key, you know, what based on the daily Weekly monthly all the structures with that we have You know at our disposal what you know, where is the key inflection points that are the really the turning points? We're the markets really making decisions and we really you know zero it down and so today we came in and are really identifying this 27 500 and For the reasons that you can see and there's there's conflict, you know And but it's all rotating and centered around this price point And so If we are trading below 20s, you know this inflection point, you know, where can we go? We can go down to 20s, you know 27,000 26,700, you know, basically just you know, clarifying what's already here on the picture You know that this you know, this is the key area 26700 and you know and telling you don't press it I mean if we're not really expecting some follow-through at this time, you know There's a lot of news coming out the markets has some positive momentum If the positive momentum is gonna go it should just you know keep ramping up And if we break structure more likely now we're going sideways And that's what this structure also tells us that we've you know, we test in the top of the opening range Test the bottom of the opening range, you know, we broke out above the previous week's high Let's just you know go back and let's retest the previous week's midpoint If not all the way the previous week's low You know and then so we're coming here and identifying that just saying hey, you know 25,850 is the low point for a negative squeeze So if we do roll over here, and then we can't stabilize here and we get a sharp big squeeze You know, maybe we have a big squeeze to this point and we bounce back up and we're back in this big big mass You know, so then we clarify that further that hey You know if this if the market does start, you know stays that down these levels and we start trading below the previous week's low point This is a real threat and This thing could really unwind And we can and we could see you know Bitcoin going down to 23,500 So again, you know kind of going back to our longer-term structure You know quarterly is it is big structure right now And it comes down to you know, basically 20,000 and 20,500 23,000 500 So it's always the same It's on your fact focus, you know, you start out by identifying price structure You know, what is you know if you're working on the daily timeframe? What's what's yesterday's high? What's yesterday's low? What's its midpoint? What's what's yesterday's clothes? If you know dealing with the weekly we are here, you know, we're doing the same for the daily We're doing the same for the month that we're doing the same for every timeframe You know, we're looking at all the confluence and that's what you're getting in the market market outlook The key is just sticking with a you know, you know effect focus, you know, so and that's what that's what we're offering You know, that's what this Market outlook is all about And it's all part of you know having a statistical outside view You know, do you really help, you know slow down your decision-making process minimize your subjective biases You're making the best decisions So you're not reacting, you know, there's no knee-jerk reactions or you know, if you have doubts You're always going back to that fact foundation You know, what is the truth? So a few more minutes. I'm just going to go over some practical application here. We have me Just this I've mentioned this before I think, you know as traders you need to have a mandate makes trading easier What's a mandate, you know, you have that foundation for me crypto my mandate is to be a buyer So I'm net long So I'm never you know When I'm short I'm flat Rarely go short That's but it makes it easier when I'm looking at the market to identify How do I you know add protect and where do I want to hedge my profit? Where do I want to hedge my risk? Where do I want to accumulate? Where do I want to you know, leverage things up and So the we can use these structure points to do that. So we have the kind of a Bigger picture structure and just move this stuff in alignment That's off the chart. There's a close And that's the high no just swap those two there So the the integration that I'm using here is zero charts These charts and this is integration is book map that you're all familiar with So we know this is the bigger structure. So let's just put the daily structure in line here And this is what we have on book map because now we're going into more of a microstructure We could you know, take a look at yesterday's Action yesterday's high, you know yesterday's low yesterday's midpoint and we could add that structure here Let me change this color Sundays No, I'm right. No, we're looking at the daily session here and Looking at say the first four hours we can identify this opening range as well but the key key thing here is that we've got the previous days low point is also the Opening range midpoint. So we have that with confluence and then We've got our daily directional, which is showing up here. Let's put the weekly minor level in here So this so this is another thing that I look to look for in Trading here So question is, you know, is this we know on a bigger picture the market just retested this area So we have a you know higher low here We have a higher low here We have a higher low here Is the market going to kind of ramp up and make a play for 29,000 right now? What are the issues? Well, you know, we can see on the daily. We've got this 27 a 12 Which also comes into alignment. This is the VWAP. So we have You know looking, you know having the the session VWAP is always a great little, you know momentum level and So we have that coming into alignment at the daily directional remove the daily Metric boundaries just to clean this up a little bit So this is becoming a real key area here for momentum. So, you know, are we going, you know, we're getting near the Midway through you know coming to the last part of the session if we have another move in us Are we going to rotate back down and press this area or are we going to transition and make a play Up for previous days high if not even higher or the or at least the weekly opening range high and so Using the order book we can you know, we can kind of take a look, you know, this is a Combined order book do we have any resting liquidity above the market or below the market? Or we do have some resting liquidity coming in here at twenty seven thousand two hundred Which is basically down here, which is at the top of the boundary This gives me insight that if the market Does have a big break. It's more likely it's going to stabilize at the top end here versus the lower end And what I want to see happen currently Is what, you know, if if the mark, you know, if I'm taking a positive position or if I'm working On buys off of this key structure point that was highlighted in the market outlook I'm looking for the liquidity to build up off this metric This metric boundary, which it's doing And you can see liquidity building up we needed to eat through here and start to kind of see this this shift here If we do get an order imbalance, we have some, you know, kind of darkness here If this gets all dark and we get some brightness as the market moves up that kind of give us insight that we could have a surge Just starting to get some buying in here as a volume dot Had, you know, whenever you see, you know, kind of peep the the market Generating big liquidity like a sell liquidity into structure You know, that's a kind of an exhaustive signal and then You know, you can always Back out of, you know, you're looking for this confluence is always important With the daily, you don't want to get confused or or rely too heavily on the daily You want to kind of stick with the bigger structure But when you see that alignment, it can be helpful to, you know, managing the trade within here, especially if you're trading with leverage So that's the presentation today on the market outlook So if you're interested in receiving that About you to come to uh, Dharma Capable that trade and you can, you know, sign up for a trial on that also if you want to Take a look at some of my updates and tweets you can get me at at js services or you can Just search for my name on twitter You know, have access to that but again the goal of our market outlook is to Provide you with the fact foundation that's statistical benchmark So you have this in this foundation for whatever you want to do I recommend having it a mandate Understand what each of the structure pieces mean. What is the price structure? What does that mean? We're above high. We're below the high. We're above or below the midpoint Are we shifting transitioning through the midpoint of the previous week's range? How's it, you know, where are we at in the price discovery? Are we still in the opening range? Are we coming out of it? What where is their alignment with the structure and then How does that all relate to the sentiment bias? the critical range And then in our, you know in our comment our commentaries are going to give you insight and You know use using this as that foundation sticking with your entries within structure boundaries And using the alignment for your risk management any questions Feel free to email me directly or you can post them directly in the discord chat until next time Enjoy your day. Cheers