 Ukraine is like it or not the future of the liberal world order and we need to follow it here on ThinkTech, here on Global Connections. I'm Jay Fidel at the handsome young man, is Carl Baker. He is a senior advisor at the Pacific Forum and it's very important that we check in with him from time to time to get connected with global events. Welcome to the show Carl. Thanks Jay. Thanks for having me again and it's another time to update what's happening with Ukraine and how it's impacting the rest of the world because it certainly is a key event in a lot of different ways. You know I like to think that over nine months of war now people get more interested rather than less interested but I guess that's not the way humanity works. For myself I've been fascinated. I've been watching a series of lectures by your your colleague Tim Snyder who teaches a course at Yale in this and he makes his lectures, I guess it's a Yale thing, he makes his lectures public and his lecture, you know, it's about Ukraine. It's about everything that ever happened in Ukraine from way back when to try to explain you know the poterie of culture and historical vectors that exist in Ukraine. And you really, you know, just mind blowing to find all the trouble, all the trouble they've seen over the years. Yeah it's really a very very volatile spot in in Europe and you know when you look at where Ukraine sits it's it's it's right there you know it's the it's sort of sort of the the definition of of Russia versus versus the West and and that's how it's playing over it. Yeah so it's war and another war in Europe except somehow this one's different. Somehow this one affects the United States more perhaps and certainly affects the Western Europe and of course history is dynamic. It's dynamic in two ways. You know one way is what's going on at Ukraine affects Europe and what's going on in Europe affects Ukraine and both sides of that equation are dynamic and moving all the time and although you know we are fascinated and distracted with all the political you know machinations here in the United States it is probably a bigger news story to find out how the liberal world order is doing and where it's going. So you know I listed in writing up this show I listed a bunch of factors and and you know considerations and influences on what's going on for the invasion but I know that's only some there are many more under the surface and we can't possibly get a handle on all of them but let's try. So what what is making the war last this long and how is the war going Carl? Well I think the war is going toward a stalemate and I think that that's you know really the big story is you know what what do all the sides really expect to get out of the war what is what is the end state for everybody because I think that's becoming the challenging question you know if you look at at what Ukraine President Zelensky has said it's retaking all of the territory including the Donbass including Crimea and that and that is becoming sort of the sort of the definition of the extreme I think where Russia is Russia is saying that they're never going to give up Ukraine it's it's tantamount to the United States giving up Hawaii and and then and then there's questions very variations on the on the on the theme about how much of Donbass stays with Russia how much of it how much of it stays with Ukraine so I think those are kind of the defining limits of what we what the end states can be and the United States and Europe are sort of torn between those two at this point you know when you when you take on the rhetoric of this is defining the global liberal order then I think there's a tendency to say we have to stick with Ukraine because that's the only way that we can actually sustain the global the global order as it is and I think that's somewhat dangerous because I think that that you know there's a lot of other broader interests that are influencing the United States and the European Union beyond the the survival of Ukraine as defined by President Zelensky and and as you know I mean when you look at at the history of Ukraine it's not it's not all that well defined Crimea certainly is not part historically long historically part of Ukraine so so there has to be some recognition of that but that that boundary is somewhat somewhat flexible so when you look at what I think matters to the United States and Europe is how long can they sustain the position of supporting Zelensky without trying to probe what a sort what a diplomatic resolution short of the maximal demands that are being made by President Zelensky. You know one thing maybe you can speak to how how this has been in in previous wars in previous altercations but I have come to the view that that the Vladimir Putin is not sincere in anything so when he takes a position when he tells you what he's going to do well for that matter he tells you you know about a false flag you know initiative by some other country like Ukraine that's that's only for propaganda purposes and that he is he's never really negotiating in good faith that's that's my view just watching him you know and indeed you know the world has that now you you can never tell whether it's propaganda or good faith negotiation and I think that on Zelensky's side of it he he's mindful of that he understands that so he's he's not going to negotiate with a guy who was not not sincere not not not bona fide not in good faith so so you get two layers I guess maybe this has always happened in western history you get two layers one is the public you know for the public assumption where it's just propaganda and it's not not really the position that they would take you know an honest negotiation and then you get you know the position they would really take if it came down to the crunch is this something that we only have now or have we always had no it's I think it's always been that way and you know and and when you look at when you look at at you know past past wars in Europe you look at world war two which you know there's a tendency to to view this war this war as as similar to world war two and you know there was this this maximalist demand that you had to eliminate the Nazis and you had to eliminate Hitler totally it had to be a total a total victory you know other wars haven't been like that world war one wasn't like that and you know and so maybe maybe world war one is a better example to follow that that we need to understand that there's going to have to be some compromises because that whole central Europe is is much more in flux than than what Zelensky is trying to argue publicly and I think he recognizes that and but he wants to maintain as you say that that public maximalist position as long as he can but at some point I think it the United States and Europe have to start thinking about what are the long-term implications for the larger global order I mean it's easy to it's it's easy to say that this this is defining the the structure of the of the future global order but what does that really mean I mean what's what's happening in Ukraine now is you have you have in Europe specifically you have rampant inflation from from the dislocations associated with with the energy crisis that's been created by cutting off natural resources natural resources from from Russia and in the United States it's not the only reason we have inflation but it certainly is part of the reason why there's inflation in the United States because of because of this dislocation of resources in in Europe so I think that that's one thing we need to look at the other thing that I think becomes important at some point especially for the United States in vis-a-vis Russia is to what extent is Russia prepared to go you know over the nuclear threshold for for maintaining its maximalist position again we we hope that there's some some something short of a nuclear exchange in Putin's arsenal that that in fact he does recognize that that going over the nuclear threshold would be dangerous so again his maximalist position at least publicly is he's willing to do that but that's that's understandable for for the public position so I think those are the kinds of things that we need to start probing because there's another the other aspect I should finish on the global order is what impact is this having on on climate change because if there's a if there's a global issue that people are tending to start recognizing more and more it's it's climate change and certainly you know the the the the rely the return to reliance on coal fired plants in Europe and the rest of the world in in in in response to the the increase in prices over other fossil fuels can't be good for climate change and certainly just just the the the destruction going on in in Ukraine has to have a negative impact on on climate change and and god forbid that we end up talking about a nuclear exchange of any kind because that would destroy resources from from everything from agriculture to to to basic living in in central Europe yeah you know see if you can find the connection that I find but I believe that this sort of thing is is catching it's it's viral it's infectious I am permitted to cross my neighbor's boundary and attack for bony baloney reasons simply because I want it because I'm an autocrat because because because I'm and I violate the liberal world order there are others who will follow the other autocrats who will move to more extreme positions and try the same thing and and the comparison I make for you very current is Brazil so this fellow Lula who is a more left leftist than Bolsonaro won the election yesterday day before and what what strikes me so interesting is that the Times and the Washington Post both report that Bolsonaro is he's not agreeing he's not giving up he's not you know he's not agreeing with the result of the election so where did he get that from is this all autocrats do this or is it kind of like a political virus around the world that you find that more and more leaders who lost the election are not agreeing with the election and questioning it now we have the same phenomenon that you know the Trump initiated here is happening in in Brazil and it just shows you that it's monkey see monkey do if you see it happening in one place and somebody gets away with it essentially they're going to see it in another place don't you think there's a beyond climate change beyond you know profound damage to the environment there's also profound damage in the sense that these these moves that Putin has made they may be catching I understand that logic I understand why why people want to want to see the connection and they have to stop it in its in its tracks okay now what are you going to do are you are you really going to defeat Russia in detail in Ukraine no you're not going you're you're Russia will exist after Ukraine and so so if that's true then I think it's time to start thinking about what do we really want out of this do you want Putin eliminated from power there's there's ways to do that short of of creating the elimination of Russia and I think those are the those are the areas that need to be investigated that you can't you can't continue to think about it in in absolute zero-sum terms that it's either Russia or Ukraine that that that again taking the maximalist positions on both sides you have to you have to start figuring out how do you move away from those maximalist positions that's the hard one that's by the way I don't I don't suggest that it's a it's a lesson for for the United States to look at Bolsonaro and Lula I'm only saying I think the phenomenon is is expressed in that in that particular election but but let me let me offer this thought that how can the United States assuming the United States can can and will call the shots or want to call the shot for peace how do you go about that when at least one of the two parties is not sincere so do you go to this is a big question do you go to Zelensky and say look you you've got to make peace you've got to be the first one of the two of you that actually sits down at the table and and listens and tries to enter into some kind of dialogue and if you don't do that we're going to be unhappy we insist that you do that and if we're unhappy we're going to we're going to restrict the the money we give you the sanctions we impose against Russia and for that matter the the military assistance so you better do that plus forcing him and that puts him at a huge disadvantage at the table so how do you do it in an equitable way yeah I think you're right I think it that is a very difficult question but I'll turn the question around just a little bit and say Zelensky has to be seeing what's happening in Europe and the United States where there's there's a growing sense that if the Republicans retake the the House that there's going to be a reduction in the amount of support the United States is willing to give and you know and then just as an aside of course you know a couple weeks ago we had this movement from the from the far progressive side on the United States where the where the 30 the 30 Congress persons brought up the idea of reducing the amount of support to to Ukraine so Zelensky sees this he also sees the the protests in in Europe over the high inflation which is attributed to the Ukraine war so you know so it puts him in a difficult position to to take the initiative against someone like Putin but I think that that the reality is and I think he sees this reality that that he can only maintain this maximum position for so long now having said that I think there's also something to be said for for Moscow for Putin specifically to see that that he is becoming in a difficult he's getting to be in a difficult position also because he does have protests in Russia of course they're much more contained and we don't really understand the dynamic very well inside Russia of what's happening but certainly you know the the the recall of 300 reserve 300,000 reservists and you know and the and the fleeing of the of the young young men from Russia and all this I'm sure he sees that and he recognizes that he has to move from that maximum position too so I'm not suggesting that that Zelensky tomorrow you know puts off the advertisement saying okay we're ready to give up our maximumless claims I don't see that happening but I see that both sides eventually begin to recognize that they do have to do that that they're going to have to come to some to some compromise to to preserve what they value in their position in the international system because Ukraine without without a vibrant west is not going to be much to to want if you're Zelensky and Putin on his on his side I mean he has to realize that he's losing public support in Russia so again I don't see it I don't see it as as the United States trying to force Zelensky into it as much as I want to see the west try to move to Russia and to Ukraine to start working out the compromise solution to back away from from the maximalist support for Zelensky without without any consideration and so it's not it's not it's not that I'm asking for Zelensky to move first and to take the big step because that's inconsistent with with large power small power dynamics I think it's hard to stop a war I'm reminded of all quiet on the western front which is a a new movie made of the book and you know a replay of the old movie which looks at it from the german side and you know french warfare and essentially the trenches were the same throughout what four years of war nobody really moved the needle very much they just killed each other and ultimately killed 17 million people a lot of people but what's interesting about it is that after the armistice was signed and in the hour before the armistice was effective they were still killing each other knowing that in an hour's time the armistice would go into effect likewise on the western front which the armistice was principally directed and you know the Germans lost and they were humiliated by the french which was really unnecessary if you and I were advising the french right now we'd say hey not a good idea to humiliate you know your enemy but what was happening on the eastern front was that the war continued after that armistice so what you have is a you know a complex affair with you know machine and machines and men and supply lines weapons all engaged in a war and it's not so easy to snap your fingers and say okay stop now that's right well but and then to make to make the another point there is that you know at some point everybody loses and I think that's that's the message that needs to be brought out it's not again I don't want to suggest that that we want to we want to see Zolensky simply cave in to to russian demands that's that's that's that's sort of sort of taking the maximalist position and arguing you can't do anything because if you do anything they're they're going to take take everything they can get once you do that and and so it has to be it has to be pressure on both sides now clearly you know it's easier to pressure Zolensky because he's willing to communicate with the west than it is to to convince Putin that he has to do some but I think there's you know in in this world of of disinformation and and manipulation of the media there certainly are ways to to support the the resistance in russia and to make it more obvious to deputant that that he is he's losing the the the role that russia has and and that brings me to another broader point that I want to make and this certainly concerns the west it concerns russia and and it concerns the united states and that is the role of china and to me the role of china is important here because they've taken the position of not openly supporting russia but not not supporting russia also so you know their their economic situation is quite different than the west and the united states specifically they're in a recession and they're looking for ways to to to sort of sort of boost their economy and so this suits them well because they've got resources they you've seen the numbers they they're increasing their their oil and and gas imports from from russia so they're taking advantage of basically lower prices on their on their natural resources and they're and they're not necessarily supporting russia but they're not trying to defeat russia either they're not supporting the united states so if if the war ends russia benefits if the war continues china still benefits because because they they are the ones that are are basically taking advantage of there if you want to see the country that's taking advantage of the situation it really is china because they're they're promoting their their global security and initiative which you know says that that security is invaluable which of course is nonsense because it's invaluable but it has to be invaluable from a point of time and and and you know this this whole idea was promoted by russia to prevent the expansion of nato and now china is simply picking it up saying saying security is invaluable well it's invaluable unless a major country invades a smaller country then then it's not invaluable because it's so it's kind of a nonsensical kind of kind of conceptualization about about security but but in the meantime china is taking advantage and china is certainly taking advantage of the diminishment of the united states and and the european union in terms of of economic clout in the rest of the world so while the european union and united states are very strongly opposed to the war in ukraine there's a there's a whole swath of countries that are much more ambivalent about it and they are they are receiving support from from china as as a way to bolster china's image in the rest of the world so they're coming across as looking like the the more more more stable power for the long term so i think that that's another way they take advantage it's another way they they take advantage of the situation they're not they're they're they're very opportunistic in doing so by by maintaining that neutral position they're they're in a they're in a position to win either way so they've they've got both sides covered so let's talk about those who would inter intercede those who would become mediators negotiators what have you i think you know there was some discussion a few months ago about how israel might do that but that stopped that didn't happen it isn't happening and then this trump trump said he would he would go and he would be a mediator my reaction is lots of luck the guy who foments divisiveness is going to mediate at this but not a chance and then is the most most recently eline musk has a has a plan you wonder about the logan act you know whether somebody can do this sort of thing you know if you and i decided to do it i i think we'd have we'd be meeting the united states attorney uh so my question to you is you know who in this play this this big theater this global theater of powers and individuals who claim to be powerful who can step up and stay now now boys this is destroying the environment this destroying the liberal world order it is not really in anybody's best interest except china yeah why don't you stop already well i don't think i don't think anybody is really in that position quite honestly uh the united states i don't think it's i mean quite quite frankly this is this is a somewhat of a reflection of the of the loss of of capacity for the united states to actually dictate terms of agreement and disagreement at the global level uh you know one one other person that you didn't name who's actually had quite a bit of influence is reset urdogan of course you know the turkish prime minister he's he's actually the one who's been involved in in negotiating the the green deal and has has worked with the with uh russia and and ukraine to to sort of sell weapons that benefit him but actually turkey has played probably as big of a role as anybody and of course you know the other one that's that's claimed to try to play an intermediary role is is jacoi from indonesia in in the context mostly of posting the g20 uh in a couple weeks here but you know so so there's several people who can who can play at the margins of this thing but ultimately it it is it is uh it has to be a combination of of players that come to the realization that this really is a a losing game and as long as china is in the position they are it's going to be very difficult to get that coalition together because there's there's people i mean like india for example and and the south america country brazil for example will be interesting to see how they play now that now that lula is apparently the new president but as you say bolsano my understanding is bolsano hasn't really said anything yet but we anticipate that he will come out fairly soon and and and resist the the election so you know so you've got these these these sort of large middle powers if you will that that can play a role and they can they can certainly influence how it comes out but then the question is is who leads that can can you really put together a coalition from the united states the european union and some of these other large players like india and and maybe maybe brazil to come together to to work something out i mean that's that's probably the best hope because i don't see the united states and china coming to the point where they mutually recognize the vulnerabilities that are associated with with this disruption in in in the global ecosystem either of us have mentioned the united united nations which i think that this is another demonstration of of the failure of that system because of the security council rule and the veto procedure and so forth um and it can't be a vessel in which this this collaboration can take place it is it is um futile and um that is very sad um and and i think what all of this proves up you know you have war crimes going on they can't stop the war crimes invasion of a neighbor with all this brutality they can't stop it there they have no voice they have no leverage no power no nothing um and what it demonstrates i think is the united nations part of the united nations is finished it's finished in modern time well i mean yeah if we if it would be so easy finishing the united nations is about his finish about as easy as finishing a war you know once a bureaucracy once a bureaucracy is in place trying to trying to unseat it is is about as futile as as trying to pursue a meaningful end to war and and so yeah but i mean practically practically speaking you you're right i mean they i mean i want to i want to acknowledge that they were part of the part of the grain movement negotiation but it was it wasn't they weren't the main players in that negotiation and and so yeah so they've they've demonstrated that that the the whole concept behind the security council with a single power veto isn't going to work because there's always going to be the single power that is being the aggressor well you worry about europe uh there was a piece in the paper about germany and Olaf Schultz about he was uh holding back and he was holding back on money and weapons uh that they thought he was going to give Ukraine and there's um you know issues about Italy not clear what's going to happen uh with Maloney and finally you know when when they have another election in France nobody knows what's going to happen there and the uk is in trouble you know economically and politically for that matter and so you know the EU is not the same as it was you know 60 days ago uh it's really interesting and and then of course the united states is facing this election which as you mentioned i think is a great concern the republicans get into office especially in the money in the money house and uh they'll stop the money and you know we actually had a double cheese pizza bet on one of our other shows and i bet that as soon as the republicans got into office they would stop the money um and the other guy said no no no people in this country believe in the liberal world order do they really uh and they believe in you they want to support Ukraine they do it i think the more interested in in in the gas price and and the cost of a you know a dozen eggs and they don't think about this at all the media doesn't the media does not really push the point you have much more of distraction news from trump and his friends uh than you do about Ukraine so i think the us is moving more into isolationism and away from you know creating a collaboration with europe and so all of this is you know it's going to happen in in two weeks time um all of this is going to come together because if the u.s start backing off the rest of those guys they're going to see an opportunistic you know an opportunity also um get get out of town and uh and force Zelensky to relent um what do you think the timing is on all of that because it's not a happy thought it's not and i'm thinking you know i mean we we had this discussion early on when we started talking about Ukraine that ultimately for the west it was going to come down to an economic problem and and i think it has and so and so how long can can europe sustain the inflation i mean you saw the cpi numbers today they were they were up again up 10 10 something percent you know and and and clearly there's a lot of frustration building in in all the democracies in europe over over the inflation and the united states you've you've seen the news the we don't care about abortion we don't care about uh about human rights what we care about is gas prices the economy and so you know it's coming back to to where we anticipated it would that it's it's how long can the west sustain its commitment to supporting Zelensky and and the the current Ukraine and i think i put it put a timeline on it a year because a year from now i think that that the europeans and the americans are going to be very weary of of doing blank checks to to Ukraine i mean that's you can see that in the last couple's tranches i mean there's there's there's political advertisements out today on the news on the television that says what's it what has biden done he's given x number to to Ukraine instead of instead of something you know and so yeah so i think that that it's going to be an economic issue and i'm going to i'm going to say a year and in a year we need to start seeing something more than just uh we're going to support the the maximalist position of of Zelensky and Ukraine and and if we can if we can move Russia in that direction and that's why i think it's important that we start moving moving to figure out how to how to have Russia engage in a meaningful way in that in that discussion with Ukraine and and i think the way that's done is that you start showing Putin and you start showing the Russian people that you know the cost of you pursuing your maximalist position is you become a vassal state to a large neighbor without since specifying your name i hope he's persuadable i think right now he's playing the time game i think he used to he's he he knows everything that you and i are saying in fact he may be watching this show right now carl and learning from it sorry to say yeah you never know but but i would i would i would say that when you say one year from now this will all crystallize somehow that's before 2024 and 2024 is you know it's the big the big rendezvous and so i think the republicans in order to assure greater success in the next election the presidential year will be you know complaining about biden and his lack of success in organizing you know a group of nations that will support Ukraine and they'll just call it another failure like afghanistan that lays at biden's door even though in withdrawing you know the money which they will do i think and we're not having a pizza about that no pizza bet on that okay good okay i wouldn't take your i wouldn't take your money you wouldn't take pizza but you know i think they're gonna they're gonna blame biden and they're gonna use that in the 2024 elections and um that that's very handy for the republicans it's all easy easy political power and so if the united states drops out uh europe doesn't have the glue to stay together and this is all pulling the rug out from dolensky so how do you see this unfolding in terms of the territory involved i said you know you and i've been talking about the donbas since we originally started this conversation do you think do you think now that dolensky will have to give it up and do you think that putin wants that and will stop there i yes i do i think and and again i mean to say that that putin will stop there it gives me a bit of a pause because your your point is taken that that it's hard to say that he's going to really be satisfied but he may recognize that as at least an intermediate win and i think that that that may be what he wants to get at this point because i think he also recognizes his vulnerabilities and so i think i think that that's ultimately what he would accept at this point and then it's just a question of where that blurry line exists if it's the entire of of of donetsk and and the haunts or if it's a portion of of of that of that region you know the one that's the ones that have have always been sort of occupied by russian russian friendly uh people and and politicians and and certainly uh uh primea is not on the table as far as putin is concerned that that that that will remain russian so i think that that that that would be something that that putin would accept as as a a workable solution for at least the intermediate term you're right about the intermediate term because who knows what happens a day later who knows what happens the day after the agreement is made well i i mean i think i think it continues but it will be it won't be an outright war where we're actually taking down you know the the electrical grid in Kiev anymore but it will be you know it will be that the same festering conflict that we've had for for decades now in the donbas region yeah asymmetrical you know a hacking attack here and a phony baloney election there and all that stuff yeah i mean it's in it's it's probably at least at least in the lifetime of putin is probably in the interest of russia to continue to harass ukraine even even after after some peace agreement and i think i think that's that we have to accept that as a fact and so and so the conditions of the of the peace agreement or the peace settlement are going to have to recognize and acknowledge that that ukraine will always have to maintain a strong military and then of course you know then then the real questions that come up then is how do you rebuild ukraine you know how do you how do you actually rebuild that economy after being devastated by russia because certainly russia is not going to be in a position itself to do that i mean if you know if in russian's fantasy somehow you bring ukraine collapsed russia would not be in a position to rebuild ukraine you know you would have to rely on some other some other outside source to actually do that western europe would have to step up for a trillion dollars that's that's a number yeah i mean and it's probably it's probably a low number you know if i understand what's happening correct what about um you know allowing ukraine the remainder of it um to have some kind of angle on becoming a member of the eu i think nato would probably not work but maybe uh some kind of associate associate membership in eu yeah i mean to the extent that that's going to be advantageous you know i mean that's maybe an open question but i think yeah i mean i think that would be one of the you know one of the points that that solensky would try to would try and legitimately we should support try to push is is to to allow the rest of ukraine to actually align with the west in terms of their economic well-being you know carl we started out with the notion in this discussion with the notion that it's hard to predict predict anything these days not only in this country um but globally and certainly in in ukraine and um you know i i i come away from the discussion with the feeling that yes we have we have talked about some of the important vectors that have appeared some of the influences and you know what we call configurations around the world that will affect this but um it's impossible to identify them all i mean for example we could have a an escalation and climate change that would really start destroying things all around the world we could have we could have the the nuclear conflagration and that booten has referred to and god knows where that would take us so our discussion is it's all very rational and you could defend any of the you know the expectations we have identified but but how confident are you that we that we could actually predict what's going to happen here yeah i i think you're right i mean we can't because you don't you you know it's an old saying from from crossfits that says war is very difficult to predict and it's impossible to control because it's it's ultimately chaos and so you've created chaos now now you have to accept that the the outcomes are unknown at this point and i think they remain so for the for the reasons you say there are so many outside variables that can intervene and and throw us on an entirely different course yeah the one thing that seems sure is the chaos and the killing you know always people step in and say well this is crazy our our young people are going into the mouth of of of a cannon they're going to be killed in large numbers and only then do we learn we learn the hard way we all sides we're in the hard way and that may be what happens here don't you think i do i mean i think that's what i say i don't i don't see i don't see us demanding that zolenski enter into negotiation it's going to be something that that forces him and put into into thinking about how do you how do you end this in a in a way that at least salvage is something well with us it's easy we're out of time so we have to end it and i i'm very glad that i never made that double cheese bet with you but i i look forward i look forward to our next discussion and possibly about the global economy as soon as you have a chance i'd like to circle back on that okay sure sounds good thank you so much for watching think tech hawaii if you like what we do please 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