 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of theactionsandtraded.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a really good week of trading, a lot of great action. If you are brand new to the channel, like, subscribe, share, come aboard. Come aboard, spend some time with us Monday through Wednesday and on the weekend video. 15 minutes trying to give you an unbiased take of the equities markets on the day to day basis. No guessing, no opinions, just based on data collection and the relevance for the next trading day. That's it, not further than that, not beyond that, just for the next trading day. And if you look at the equity tape this week, a lot of things have changed from our last update on Wednesday. If you guys remember on Wednesday's session, you had Tesla come out with earnings as I was recording the video. This was before the Q&A session, the conference call, the stock was pretty much flat. And after the conference call, Elon Musk just didn't really give the shareholders a lot, or at least didn't give the traders and investors a lot of really big optimistic boom of this quarter. And the market sold off Tesla, right? Netflix came out with earnings. Subscribers rose by 8% because of the crackdown of password sharing, but they sold the stock off. Meta that had a huge run in the last several months, several weeks. News came out on Friday that their threads engagement since the launch is down nearly 70% on like 13 million viewers, 13 million subscribers, so that took a big dent. And the most important part is what we haven't seen in the NASDAQ 100 or the QQQs is we finally saw a week that was not only red, but we saw a week that not only did we lose the five-day moving average, which is the short-term sentiment, we lost the 10-day moving average. And if you are an avid subscriber to this YouTube channel or in the live webinar, or even follow me on social media, you kind of know the PS60 theory stems around the 10-day moving average, which is the birth of the trade, right? Five days, the short-term sentiment, but the 10-day is the birth of the trade, and it could spill out for multiple, multiple sessions. But we'll get to that in a second. So the question is, you know, we've been in a big, big bull market run. I don't think anybody is denying that even the biggest perma-bears, you know, have pretty much lost for words. And even if we do have a backtest this week into this, you know, 271 level, 371 level on the QQs, ultimately the bull market is still way intact for us to have a problem. Okay, for the bulls to have a problem for a longer-term timeframe, we would have to lose the 50-day moving average, which is 355. So we're still 20 points away from that. This week, you have earnings, the big numbers this week are from on Tuesday from Microsoft and Google. And on Wednesday, you have Meta, all the other ones traditionally been usually on the following Thursday. They're got pushed back. Apple got pushed back. AMD got pushed back. Amazon pushed back. And the video is like two weeks prior to that. So the big ones this week is going to be in the tech space. Tuesday, Microsoft and Google. And Wednesday, you have Meta, right? A bunch of, you know, Meta, eBay, you have a bunch of Dow components as well, Boeing, 18T, Coca-Cola, so forth and so on. But from our point of view, you know, my niche is the Nasdaq 100, the Beta names, the Megatap technology names. And this is kind of where we want to focus our attention. Last time we spoke, and this is kind of where we talk about, you know, speculation, right? Speculation. They were coming for three weeks. They were coming from the $300 calls. So you guys probably heard me talk about that in Nausium going into the earnings, the 300 calls, the 300 calls, the 300 calls. Well, the 300 call buyers got paid, right? They definitely got paid because the runner from the 300 call buyers was from like the 270s. And it went on, you know, went on what, on Thursday on, excuse me, on Wednesday to $299 and change. So I'm assuming they got paid out. The ones who didn't get paid out, I'm assuming what the rest of them did was, you know, sell their 300 calls and roll them over into the 330s, 340s, 350s, 360s that we started seeing towards the end of the week. Those guys obviously, you know, lost money. But again, if you are, you know, if you are procreating your account the right way, you're playing with House One. Any time you're rolling up your contracts for the next series, you're taking the majority of the risk off the table because you're trading smaller and allocating a smaller quote, quote unquote, AKA House Money. So they'll be okay. But the market did sell Tesla, okay? And that's the most important part. You have to understand they did sell Tesla. You know, we had some great pivots the last couple of days of this week. We'll talk about the pivots in a second. We had some really great moves. Tesla closed below the 20-day moving average. You could see the last time it held the 20-day moving average was on June the 27th. We lost the 20-day moving average. We followed through yesterday on Friday. And you could see how much room you have left here. You have a lot of room left here to the possible 150-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. And when the stock has such a big run as we all know, a phenomenal one. Absolutely exceptional run. We traded to the long side. We traded to the short side. But now that we're below the 20-day moving average, we're going to watch this thing this week. It attempted a dead cab bounce on Friday. It actually went green and they sold it off into the close. I want to watch, obviously, Tesla this week. Is there a possibility you could have a dead cab bounce? Absolutely. If you were to get back to be long biased on Tesla, Tesla would need to reclaim at least 270 on the close, which would be the 20-day moving average. And to have overnight risk on, these are the numbers here, the 5- and 10-day moving average, you would need Tesla to reclaim 277 on the close. So those are my numbers going to this week. If Tesla shrugs off this earnings, kind of a little bit of a debacle, reclaims back to 270 and then ultimately to put risk on, to have your money work for you on the swing side, get above the 277 level. What I'm looking for this week to the downside is a confirmation of this week's lows, right? That's what we're looking for. If the bulls start building below this week's lows, then look at which room we have. Again, the whole point of the PS60 theory is understanding that stocks trade from supply to supply on the upside and they trade from demand to demand to the downside. Well, here's your 20-day demand. It's below that. And the next demand is roughly around 243, 244. So there's a lot of room. Guys, stock closed at 260. There's still a lot of room for a good amount of value to the downside. But again, we have to see if the bulls can reclaim the 20-day or start losing back. Again, we're prepared on both sides of the market. Look at the queues. Here's kind of where we start the day. We start the week. The queues close below the 10-day moving average. And that is going to be a problem if the queues, if the bulls can't reclaim back to, let me see what the 10-day is, if the bulls can't reclaim back 377 on the close, well, the next demand is 371. And again, it's not a big deal. If you're an investor, if the queues go down another four points this week, they could just gap down four points. You're not even going to even feel it. But for traders, for the avid experienced trader or even inexperienced traders, just the trading and the intraday cycles that are active, you still have about four points of room to the next measure potential to 371. Where it gets very, very sticky for the bulls is if we lose 371 on the close. The way we lost the 20-day moving average on Tesla, that brown line, the way we lost the 20-day moving average on Tesla and continued lower, that's kind of where the bigger picture on the queue is going to be. If we start losing any close below 371 on the queues, that's where we have some pretty good measure potential all the way down to the 50-day moving average. But again, I don't want to put the cart in front of the horse just yet. Again, we're trying to play it day-by-day, trying to take advantage on both sides of the market. But going into Monday's session, if the bulls lose this 375, yeah, expect more downside on Monday. And that's exactly what we're planning for. I would say, you know, majority of my focus list is to the downside just to see because majority stocks close at the bottom of the range. Is it possible something wakes up this week? Absolutely. Again, that's the whole point of not trying to be right. You're trying to be prepared. That's the whole thing is why we try to be prepared on both sides of the market. But this was the first close below the 10-day moving average. If we start losing the 10-day moving average on Monday, yeah, we're going to have some more downside and that's not going to be good if you are a bullish trader. But again, if you're an investor, I think you will be okay. Just a matter of intervals that could be lost, whether it's right off the word go, whether it's right off the word go is worth throughout the day. But it's just super-duper important to kind of understand the dynamics of where we are in the retrospective of things. And we'll get to the pivots in a few seconds. Let's look at some individual names going into this trading week. You have Microsoft, again, held the 20-day. They are reporting on Tuesday. Watch the 20-day guys, right? I understand they had a great run on Microsoft and great AI news, all that stuff. But keep an eye on this thing below the 20-day moving average. Again, we just described, we just kind of showed the importance of the 20-day for the cues, what happened with the 20-day lost for Tesla. Watch Microsoft this week. If this thing starts losing the 20-day and the market bakes in its recent run-up on earnings, so who knows, maybe it could pull a Tesla, maybe it could pull a Netflix. Again, keep this in mind. This is what we talked about the whole time before Tesla's and Netflix earnings. The question was, was there moves, was there really bigger moves that they had in the last couple of months were going to be sold off into earnings, right? Were they baked into earnings so far, Tesla with their, even though they had their all-time highest quarterly revenues, it was due to price cuts, right? So it's, again, it's like winning the Tolle's Dwarf competition. No offense to any Tolle's Dwarf in the crowd. But the point is, we want to keep an eye on, is this going to be a theme, this earnings season for the really big run-up for the mega cab group, or is this going to be case by case? Let's see exactly what happens with Microsoft on Google when they report on Tuesday. But the 20-day from Microsoft is going to be a problem. Look at AMD, right? AMD lost its 100-day moving average, put it in an inside day on Friday. Now watch AMD this week, right? Keep an eye on this bottom channel. If this thing starts confirming and cues start confirming that 10-day, you're going to have more downside. You know, keep an eye on that as well. Look at a name like Metta, right? Look at a name like Metta. Metta, you know, had a great run. It lost its 20-day. The only thing that saved this was this linear regression line. If Metta starts losing this linear regression line this week, again, you have more downside ahead. So, you know, there's a lot of names that close below their channels. A lot of names close right above their channels. But the key is definitely the cues. Since most of these stocks mirror the NASDAQ 100, if the NASDAQ goes and your leaders go, you're going to have a lot more aggressive selling come in just because of the nature of gravity. Again, every single stock eventually gets pulled and no matter how wonderful. And again, I can't reiterate how wonderful this run has been on Metta and how wonderful this run has been on Nvidia and Microsoft and Apple that gave us the greatest gift in the world on Thursday and Tesla and everything else. Eventually, the gravity bug does pull in and you have to be naive to think that it's not going to affect you. So it's going to be very interesting to see Monday how the bulls handle what started out as an inside day. Primarily they were just kind of dead cat bouncing that we closed below. It actually didn't turn into an inside day. It turned into a resumption day from the 2% sell-off on Thursday's session. So it's going to be very, very interesting to see what happens this week. Again, I'm prepared for more downside. If it comes on Monday, if not, there's always going to be something that is lit up in the options market that is going to probably give us an idea of which way the market's going to go. So let's talk about some pivots from Friday. Really, really strong session. Congratulations, guys, especially Tesla. Tesla, we had a great pivot on this thing. Here is the pivot on... Let me just get rid of this. I opened up the wrong browser back in it. This was the pivot from Thursday. Remember, guys, Thursday there's no video. So here is the pivot from Thursday. 276 daily held and also held 714 lows for experienced traders. If it builds below, it can flush. Well, it flushed, right? It took down to 276 level. Traded all the way down to 261. Traded down to 261. Great, great trade. And then we took it overnight. 261 and 261 after our lows needs to confirm for more downside. And here is Tesla, right? Tesla took down every level. Took down to 76. Took down to 61. Traded all the way down to 255. I'm definitely watching the bottom of this range here from the June 30th bug, because if this thing loses that again, there's a lot of room to the downside. But Tesla's been awesome. Both sides, long, short. This has been a really, really great trader. Here is Metta, right? So I saw this news. Really early, right? Metta reported threads. User engagement fell 13 million, nearly 70% from the July 7 peak. Watch for selling. And I said, I don't think many people saw this. And the stock actually gapped up. And just like a lot of names. But 302, if it builds below, can flush. Here was Metta, right? Took down the 302, which has basically confirmed the 10-day. That's why we're watching the queue so intensely. It lost the 302, got all the way down to 91. Just a really, really big move. Again, congratulations for what you guys caught that as well. And that was kind of the theme for the day. AMAD didn't confirm. AMD didn't confirm. Queues confirmed on the close. 375, 72 is the 10-day. In case this gap gets pulled, which it did, it gets sold, it could bring in more sellers. And the queues put in its lowest close in this whole formation, guys, closing below the 10-day. Again, something to watch going into Friday. NVIDIA got hit as well. 450 held twice if it builds below, can flush. Here was NVIDIA, right? Here's the whole 450 area. 450 was the low on July the 14th. It was the low from Thursday. It took out to 450 and went all the way down to 441. They were coming for this week, this up-and-coming week for the 440 puts and the 430 puts. Just something to keep an eye on as well. UPSC number got down to 5340. Ruby, and again, this is where we talk about second entry, got above 2690. It only went up like 25 cents, and then it really aggressively went down. Netflix, another example of continuation from its earnings lows. 432, if it builds below, can flush more. And yeah, here is the flush. Here is the flush. It took down 432 as the previous day's low. It took down this whole channel and went all the way down to 423. Again, more downside ahead if the market doesn't rally. And that's it, right? And that's it. So going into this week, guys, very, very important levels. Watch that 375 area on the queues, because if the queues get pulled, so will everything else. If you are on the fence or want to try the PS60 theory, guys, click the link below. I think it's in the comments. Kyler has it pinned. Try it out for 30 days. Again, nobody trades these pivots on the whole planet. The way we do, it's a very, very specific niche that I kind of created in 2012. Everybody has their own kind of way of trading pivots. We trade it very, very differently than everybody else. So if you are kind of stuck in the mud or are looking for a little bit of an identity, there's kind of a break away from the quote, unquote, normal that you're used to. And if you are interested, come check out the webinar for 30 days. If nothing at all, it's going to give you a different approach how I view at the market that somebody's been doing nearly a quarter of a century. So maybe it'll give you a little bit more of a clue of what to look for in the market that you kind of haven't been exposed to yet. But anyway, guys, have a great, great weekend. God bless. Stay healthy. Stay happy. And God's help. I'll see you all on Monday. Take care.