 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, November 1st My goodness, it's November. This is chief meteorologist John and it's worth for a long month public media We have a last quarter moon or third quarter moon Going on Sunday November 5th is when that happens. So you gotta be up in the morning to see it Sun is looking good. We got a good sunspot cluster down here But for the most part the face is kind of blank Looking at drought conditions. Yeah, we got some precipitation, but things are a little relief there But a little drought starting to sneak in a little bit of dryness out on the eastern plains We just haven't gotten a lot of moisture recently right after a very wet early year We're ending the year a little dry If you take a look at nationally for the last two weeks things got a little worse out in the Southeastern US but not a lot of change this time the air temperatures are dropping so Vaporation rates slow down I have to pull out to a big chunk of The northern Hemis here for the smoke this time and we do have smoke nearby A little bit of fire activity going on in Canada a little bit down here in Mexico But not much around yesterday. It looked really clear Look at our snowpack We're kind of bumping up down we see you can see the two storms we've had which has us at the The normal for this time of year hundred and seven percent. So pretty pretty close to normal Here is our last storm. This is the liquid equivalent of what fell and there's some really good amounts up here. So usually Mountains you can multiply that by 15 So or 10 to 15 10 to 1 ratio is normal for temperatures in the 20s or so So take a look at two inches of rain that's 20 inches of snow or 30 inches looking for Chance of convection and thunderstorms for Wednesday Thursday and Friday. It's quiet nationwide. It's really unusual Looking at the surface analysis. We do have this little dry front here We have some tropical moisture jet stream making it up into Washington, Oregon That expands a little bit on Thursday Moves a little strong system moves out into their far northern plains But it's pretty quiet everywhere Our temperatures are now expected to drop from 59 55. That's our normal high now Our normal low is very clearly below freezing 31 down to 27 There's this hint of a November 9th ish November 8th storm. It has really gone back and forth At one point there was a giant snow storm with extremely heavy snow over the I-25 corridor The very next GFS run Nothing not a storm in the area. So really Chaotic right now, there's not a lot of predictability in the mid-range or long-range Also, I'm trouble getting a consistent looking water vapor satellite loop But you can see really dry down in the southern states. We have a moderate amount of atmospheric moisture. You saw Some clouds Especially some forming due to the presence of the Rockies. So our stationary wave cloud Wednesday morning and What we have is basically a ridge still we have this ridge in the west is a little topical system inside the ridge But that's have a ripple going past us. But yeah, not Not much exciting happening taking a look out at the 7th or 8th There's a ripple coming by but you can see the ridges still in the west This is a weird-looking para to me. We got this zonal flow west to east to the south of us Like a ridge trough thing all squished up up here. So there's a little bit of precipitation nearby Yeah, not the big storm that one run gave us So we can put this in motion for a little bit. Take a look at the ridge out west Yeah, there was a little ripple forming on the fourth and the way it goes Ridge kind of moves by then we go into a zonal flow over the state And a little ripple to the north sort of a battle of the northern jet in the southern jet Going out to the 8th and 9th you can see it's trying to bring a trough into the west And then on the 10th that's past or comes another ridge There's a deeper trough connecting all the flow for the 11th and 12th So for temperatures tons of cold air out east. That's the storm that we just had We warm up to above normal out in the west because the ridge is hanging around This is a little tropical thing down here interesting And there's some cool air coming down to the northern plains And on the 8th and 9th there's a cold front that pushes down so we do cool down around that time And the 10th we're kind of close to normal and we warm up again water vapor I think I'm going to just play a little bit of this because Without surface moisture without any strong lows forming This is just Potential but nothing happening Looking at surface dew points. This really says it all super dry. We are The air is cool and not a lot of moisture For the fueling storms or precipitation and we're done to teens in the mountains 20s Get a good winter storm and 20 dew points are great, but we just don't have one right in the offing so we'll take a look at this is just one of the runs recently that It doesn't have anything extraordinary going on But you can see those here come the ripples ripples in the northern flow You can see a little bit of stuff in the northern mountains. It's so minor Here comes another little thing hitting red feather lakes and Grand lake there's a little bit coming out on the plains, but by it's not much Moving out to the ninth and tenth We saw a lot of moisture come in and the overall atmosphere, but see there's nothing forming or coming down then this That ripple does pick up gulf moisture and moves so a lot of severe weather probably down in the south Like that so over the next five days a little bit of northern mountain activity Very tiny amount of snow in the higher mountains up north over the next 10 days northeast plains stay dry Maybe a little bit more stuff out on the palmar divide up in the central mountains and snow palmar divide in central mountains Yeah, so With our normal highs in the 50s 60s and pushing 70 is above normal It feels a lot cooler than we've had recently, but Very low chances of rain until maybe tuesday or and 57 30 I don't know if that comes in at night and gives us a little flurry activity, but yeah, not much We have a new month. So we have the november outlook the Weather service has us above normal and with that ridge keep Keeping forming or reforming over the west. I guess that's a pretty good Uh Guess and then with the precipitation they've got us far away from the above normal precipitation and below normal precipitation regions So check out longmontleader.com for more local news and Frequent weather updates when needed. I want super dry. I may not be there for more than a couple days Or so, but when a big storm comes i'm updating it two or three times a day. So This has been chief miral just john insworth urging you to keep looking up