 Right what's up guys this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week enjoyed your weekend all that good stuff this week we actually have a pretty quiet week in terms of data last week we had the CPI and the PPI so two inflation reports made the markets a little volatile it argued it was kind of choppy too but either way we finally got some of the big data out of the way and we could be heading into kind of like a quiet period in terms of data so Tuesday August 15th this is arguably the most important data we have on the week it's gonna be the US retail sales it's always a hit or miss with retail sales if it's gonna impact the market or not just depends on how extreme the reading is and you can see we have retail sales minus autos we also have import price index we also have the Empire State manufacturing survey business inventories and then kashkari Fed is also speaking and speakers are a hit or miss it just depends on how hawkish or dovish they sound usually people are just looking for Jerome Powell and they pay attention to him the most but sometimes you'll see market move to other Fed speakers as well just depends so Wednesday will arguably be the most important and it's not because of the data sets the data sets are actually pretty quiet it's nothing really crazy but we do have the F1C minutes so we'll be looking for language that was different than what they gave us during the last F1C meeting I would say this can definitely move the market maybe anywhere from half a percent to one percent in either direction it's usually what the implied move is if you look at the options it just depends but you know anything from the Fed always has a potential to impact the market so people pay attention and usually algorithms and other traders are just looking for a language difference or anything they might have missed and they look for that in black and white instead of hearing it from the Fed's mouth like we get during the press conference during the F1C meeting so there's be pretty much browsing through this looking for something different it could you know have something new it could not could just be the same thing they repeated during the press conference it's usually what happens but sometimes you kind of do get a little hint of some different language and the market will interpret it how they want to interpret it so this will be the most important day and it's not because the data retail sales is going to be the most important data but this will be the most important event of the week that'll be the F1C minutes and then Thursday just your regular initial jobless claims market has actually been reacting this a little bit everybody's looking for an uptick they want to see you know that the Fed's tightening is working and they want to see the labor market change up a little bit because honestly the jobs market has not been reacting to interest rates at all the jobs markets has been fine so people are looking for that uptick in unemployment or any hint that unemployment will take up that way they know the Fed is doing their job and it's working and then also we have the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey this can move the market a little bit we've seen a move it you know once or twice but like I said it just depends on how extreme the reading is and then Friday nothing so very quiet week in terms of data but we do have the F1C minutes like I said this can move the market anywhere from half a percent maybe to 1% that's what I've seen you know pretty commonly but it just depends you know I don't really know the exact but just kind of giving you a ballpark so those economic data now we'll go and get into a quick seasonality chart before we get into our individual tickers in the index analysis that we go over every week kind of just want to switch it up do something a little bit different because we kind of do the same thing every week we go over the economic calendar and then we go straight into charts so this week since season acts was kind enough to finally add the S&P 500 to the free users because I just use a free a free account on season acts sometimes I check it out and sometimes they take away the S&P on here because they want you to buy a subscription and I don't really look at seasonality too much but I do check in from time to time to see if they re added this just because September and August do get kind of choppy historically they do have some pretty big moves especially in September people go on vacation liquidity goes down and markets can get a little stagnant and get a little choppy but also get a little volatile too just because it takes less bids and offers to move the market so when there's lighter volume you kind of feel like the market whipsawing a little bit more and that can increase volatility so you can see on season acts here this is a free account you do have the 25 years of data this is all the way from August 11th 1998 to August 11th in 2023 so it's 25 years worth of data you can see that it actually has a small uptick here if you look really closely probably up to August 18th and there's just a little dip and then chop and then towards the end of the month in August is when it starts to sell off a little bit likely to do to end of the month rebalancing large money managers they're probably rebalancing the portfolios that can result in some selling or some sale imbalances to the downside so I mentioned actually this is August 11th we actually have August 14th to the 31st so this is our data that we selected so this goes till the end of the month I accidentally made a mistake there when I said that so this is this half of the month down to the end half of the month and you can see actually it does have a negative 0.62 percent return so just a little over half a percent in terms of historical data so the last 25 years this does average a 0.62 percent move down from August 14th to the 31st and you can see that towards towards the end of the month that it starts to get a little bit reckless and the markets will start selling and if you look over here it's not highlighted but that the September is when it starts to get you know pretty crazy so I just wanted to show you that we do have a little uptake coming up potentially in terms of seasonality it doesn't have to pan out obviously this is just taken to account you know 25 years worth of data and in those 25 years there's going to be some weeks where August 14th till the end of the week you know probably did have some downside as well it didn't just go up every single time but it does take into account and it looks like you do have a little uptake coming up here so I just want to show you that and then it does go into CHOP so that's where the S&P 500 historical data and now we'll go ahead and get into our setups so our first one here we have eBay you can see it closed up 2.8% great relative strength in terms of the market you know SPX closing down you know just the 10th percent nothing crazy and then the NASDAQ is actually getting slammed on Friday it was down over 1% at one point came up just a little bit but still closed down 0.64% so tech was the weakest and there was some relative weakness in terms of tech so eBay closed really strong it also reclaimed our trend line here you got a test one you got a test two you got a test three it bounced off test three right at its earnings broke under just briefly but it held this big demand zone and you can see it actually bounced from this demand zone right here and it also keeps trying to hold it up right here and now finally with this big bullish bar we did reclaim over the trend line and we reacted to the demand zone so I think this looks pretty bullish short term obviously I can't really see past you know maybe 46s or so because that's where you start to get up into a resistance point right there we rejected off it over here over here and we also do have a little gap here from earnings so this could eventually fill most of the time gaps do fill it just take some time so you do kind of need to be patient if you're going to trade a gap because it's not just going to fill it right away but most of the time they do refill either up or down depending if they gapped up or if they gapped down there's a pretty high percentage that it will so that's just some extra analysis obviously it's a little bit further away from what we're looking at right now we're at 4450 the gap's all the way up in the 46s so it's not a gap filled trade yet a gap filled trade is not going to be until you get inside the gap then you you know take a trade right there but you can kind of come to the conclusion that maybe eventually this gap will fill and the price will start making its way back up towards the gap because other people are also seeing that gap so even here looking pretty good in terms of moving averages though I noticed there's a lot of clusters of moving averages on the one day chart one day chart moving averages are arguably probably the most accurate and they work the best they were good for support and resistance and the overall just follow the trend good there's a big big cluster here so you can see we got a purple it's the 84 e-mail I actually have the 84 specifically for the 15 minute because it shows what the 21 e-mail on the one hour time frame is so the 1584 equates to one hour 21 and that's why I have it on the chart it's probably pretty close to the 100 e-mail as well so you can kind of look at it as like a 100 e-mail it's not the exact but then you see the light blue we have the one day 50 e-mail and then the dark blue is the 200 e-mail which is your long-term moving average your 200 so you do have to be careful with this cluster coming up you can even see the yellow here which is the one day 21 I feel like you know it's gonna have some turbulence right there once it starts getting into this cluster it can reject so you do have to be careful and if you really wanted to you could wait for it to get over the moving averages and in order to do that it would have to clear your dark blue dots which is your 200 it would need to make support off the 200 or just break out of it and then you can start entering that gap so if you wanted to wait for it to get over the clusters here you could do that because there's you know quite a few moving averages here and that could act as resistance so you have to be careful with that you can see the 21 and 9 e-mail over here and the 50 and the 89 all acting is resistance over here and then once they got over right here you got a nice up thrust you have it trying to bounce here as support falls back under and you could just see the velocity once it starts getting back over the clusters or over your 9 and 21 at least that's when momentum will start picking up you see it especially right here and then you have your 9 which is your green line here it's your 9 e-mail you can see acting as support up thrust higher so just want to show you the moving averages are right here you do want to be really careful with that especially when you're in clusters like that because that means people are watching multiple moving averages and if they're all in the same spot that makes confluence points and that can result in a rejection or if you can clear over it it can make good support as well so even here i'm going to be looking at calls just kind of staying careful with it though with this cluster coming up obviously i can see it may be up to the 200 e-mail at least before seeing resistance but it just depends because you do have all these moving averages here like i said but if you do want to wait for it to get over that could be a better point as well you could maybe even wait for it to start getting inside the gap before taking a trade but i just want to show you that so even here it looks pretty good looks pretty bullish as long as it's holding over the trend line here and over demand zone if you you know went with further out calls you know release 30 to 60 days expiration you do have a lot of cushion here with the trend line and also demand as well but like i said just be careful of the moving average cluster and if you really want to be saved just wait for it to get over so even here i'm looking at calls oh and also want to throw in here we do have this slow stochastic crossing up as well you can see it curl back up kind of the zoom in to see it but once your purple line gets over the orange that means it's starting to cross back up once the purple goes below the orange that means it's crossing down as you can see right here all right next we're going into apples this is going to be some higher time frame analysis this is going to be on the one week usually on charts i'm looking at one day or one week time frames they work the best you find the best levels wall street is trading these levels they're not looking at you know they're not really looking at intraday levels they're not looking at you know 15 minute and all that they leave that up for you know algorithms just and stuff to know market make and fill fill people's orders but the longer term investors and the large money investors are looking at these one week time frames one month time frame anything high because you can zoom out you can see the perspective better and you're not looking at it on an intraday basis you're looking at it on a couple year basis maybe even further than that so apple here you can see we do have multiple previous resistances from 2022 so you got a big one right here at 182.94 it actually breached that you have another one from march 2022 at 179.61 and then you have this last and final one which is kind of the line in the sand it's the must-hold level because if it gets under that it can get scary because you really don't have anything here give a one-day gap that i could show you but we're at this last one here with the arrow and that's going to be a 176.15 and it doesn't have to hit it exactly before trying to bounce it's just the general area that you want to pay attention to because if you wait for exact levels to hit all the time sometimes you're going to miss out sometimes you know it's not going to hit directly so you kind of just want to pay attention to the general area unless you're setting specific price alerts like a like a gap you do want to be sure that it gets inside the gap first but with stuff like this where you're just looking for a general area bounce or a general area support just kind of use the general area you don't have to wait for it to get to 176.15 especially if you're on a higher time frame you're likely going with you know 30 to 60 days of expiration for swing trades and if you're going to day trade these kind of levels you know maybe you do want to wait for it to get to the exact point because any drawdown on specific contracts that are short term that's going to you know that can result in a pretty big loss and you might have to stop out sooner than you wanted to so this 176.15 is kind of the last level like i said this can act as a back test level i've showed you in previous videos just classic break and retest strategies it just breaks out it pulls back into a level and then previous resistance can act as support so if you're newer that's what a breakout and back test is and usually with breakout and back tests you do want to wait for like some kind of candle to react to it so you know that bulls are showing up and buying there and you might zoom down to the one day for that if you're trying to look at a one week time frame you might want to go to the one day time frame for an entry so you want to see like a one day bar or some type of bullish one day bar reacting to the level we just looked at and showing that it reacts positively there is bids wall street showed up to buy more and they feel like it's going to go back up and you're going to see that through one day bars usually right now we don't really have the most bullish one day bar friday's clothes is you know not horrible but at the same time it's not really bullish either right i mean look at it it's just a it's a regular you know it's got a bottom wick it's got a top wick as well there's no full body showing that you know it's just up for a whole straight session so you might want to wait for a little bit more confirmation on this one but the 176 15 as long as you're over that i feel like there's still a chance that this can bounce back up and i showed you the other ones the 179 61 the 182 94 those both came from 2022 so you want to get over that one and you want to get back over this one as well to kind of reclaim over the resistances it went back under and you also have a big just earnings gap right here i wouldn't say it's huge but it's it's pretty decent so maybe this could feel eventually i don't think it's gonna get up there super quick or anything i mean we got september coming up september gets really weak so if anything you probably be looking for like a short term bounce on this if you're a day trader for sure and then if you're a swing trader obviously definitely i would buy time on it i personally wouldn't swing calls through september it can get a little choppy like i showed you here september all the way into early october it gets a little so you want to be careful with that i don't really see a reason here historically to start swinging calls especially on big you know big cap names that are going to follow the s&p 500 really accurately and since it makes up the s&p you know apple can likely pull back in september and october as well so you want to be careful with that maybe stick to short term moves on this i know i'm showing you the one week timeframes and that's usually for higher time frame traders and people who are trying to swing trade and hold stuff longer but you know you can still day trade off of them too you just want to be you know a little more careful and you might have to be a little bit more patient as well so obviously first price target if apple can bounce here on monday or any you know anytime next week 179.61 it's going to be pretty close i mean if you're day trading that that'll pay fine it's not gonna you don't really have to get too greedy uh two dollars is pretty good if you're day trading then obviously even get over 179.61 you got 182.94 next and that's both of these all three of these actually so this is a 2022 level this is a 2022 level this is also a 2022 level but they're major peaks so i would definitely pay attention to them so that's for apple here i'm going to be looking at calls just not going to be swing trading you know into september so i'm definitely not going to be swinging calls on this most likely just looking at day trades but if you do decide to go against the grain and you feel confident despite the despite the historic data you know just go 30 to 60 days out keep your stop laws under 176.15 and i showed you why it's because this is your last level because if it falls under this it can get a little bit scary and you start getting down into that daily gap that you see right there and that comes from all the way over here so this level definitely needs to hold just be careful looks like they just had their dividend x-date maybe people want to run into it obviously you need to get in before the x-date to get the dividend but if people see that they're paying out sometimes that you know that can result in people trying to get in for the next one so we'll see how that goes all right next we're going into j blues this is jet blue airways you can see we're pulling into a huge 6120 support this is all the way from 2022 this goes all the way back to october and also just the end of 2022 in december so this is a pretty big support after rejecting a huge resistance here which also came from 2022 and also early 2023 it rejected here huge rejection a lot of the airlines ran up really good especially dal al luv all them they did pretty good those year you know big name airlines but after their most recent earnings they did have a little correction it looks like j blue kind of got the shit into the stick the most it's definitely not holding structures the same as some of the big airlines but it's coming to these lows and you know i love discounts so i'm looking at calls on this especially for potential day trade around these areas as long as the cash open looks fine and it looks like you know it's reacting to the general area good and it's not you know selling too hard i'd be fun to buy the dip down here and give it a shot and this could even make a pretty good swing trade if you go further out like i said you'll need to be cautious in december but this is also not you know gonna follow the s&p correlation not as accurate as apple would so you wouldn't really have to i wouldn't say you have to be too worried about the you know historic pullback in september as it relates to the s&p because the airlines are kind of a sector of their own and i don't think the correlation with s&p is really you know that close but like i said it just depends but we've seen like the cruise lines and you know the airlines they kind of have a mind of its own and it really just depends on how travel is doing and that can do good despite you know other sectors doing bad so this one you might be a little bit more safe to follow and hold through september despite the s&p pullback that could happen but you know it just depends i would just you know weigh out your risk and definitely keep a stop loss under 621 it's going to be this area right here and you can see exactly why i mean this is your pretty much attempt of a double bottom if it was wanting to make an actual bottom pattern you would need to get over 935 once it clears over the resistance and closes with the one week bar you know obviously that could take it higher but it was never able to do that so that's why you couldn't claim that this was the bottom yet has to get over the resistance first so you are kind of going countertrend here you know you're buying at the lows but that does give you better risk to reward and you just keep your stop loss you know relatively tight it's going to be under 621 it's going to be about 30 cents if you're trading calls you know with options you definitely you might have to go besides the chart and just go off of the option premium and go off percentage you know 20 30 percent is usually pretty good that's where i like to keep my stop losses sometimes like a little bit higher it just depends and sometimes i'll even i'll even hold zero if i went pretty small it just depends you know sometimes you just got to give stuff room and then sometimes your expiration just doesn't pan out just all about weighing out your risk and how big you went but you may need to use you know option premium to set stop losses and price targets and not charts so j-blue here looking at calls just be careful under 621 obviously this level could hold it looks pretty good we go to the one day looking very very oversold you got your slust of castix starting to cross back up so that's good crossed down in this little area here after earnings but not starting to cross back up so they could be giving a hint into a short-term reversal to the upside price targets it would need to get over 660s and then this is all sally imbalance so there's really no crazy resistance or anything until this area so you can see this is previous support it bounced here it bounced here and then once it broke that's where things got violent so this is arguably probably the biggest resistance and then you also have a gap right here you can consider this gap resistance at about 730s so i feel like it could retrace all the way back up there because there's really nothing holding it here you'd probably have to honestly go down to the shorter-term timeframes to even get any crazy resistances and that's probably going to be like you know 660s so like i said 660 if i can get over that pretty good shot upward so jbl here looking at calls risk off under 621 all right next we're going into PayPal so this is actually probably going to be a more further out swing trade this is definitely looking on just a tad bit oversold i would probably buy 30 to 60 days of expiration if you're going to swing this but it's pulling into this big drop-based rally demand zone it actually was able to finally rally off the bottom after looks like they're may earnings and this is that same imbalance area from the previous bounce so i'm hoping you know it'll pull at least into the zone you know 60 maximum before trying to bounce again it honestly just depends this one-week bar doesn't look great so may like i said it may dip just a little bit further into it before trying to bounce and if you're going off the one-week time frame and you want to swing trade it might be wise to wait for a one-week bar to react off the zone close a little bit higher and then you know they can definitely bounce but if you're just day trading which i'm kind of just looking for a day trade on this but i'm taking to account these large larger time frame levels because the market can get big imbalances to the upside off these one-week demand zones the correlation with PayPal and the s&p might you know might not be the most accurate so your guess is as good as mine if it's going to follow you know the september pullback likely PayPal is probably just going to follow the NASDAQ or somewhat similar to it but i mean like i said i mean NASDAQ's been you know running up like crazy and already getting up to you know close to its all-time highs and PayPal still down here at the lows so PayPal and sq and other financial services can kind of have a mind of their own and they don't have to follow the s&p and the NASDAQ per se so it's kind of just comparing apple and saying i would not want to swing calls through september because apple is going to move just like the s&p 500 and if the s&p 500 historical data is showing that september is going to pull back or at least it's likely it's going to pull back i'd rather not swing calls through that PayPal here more at lows risk to reward is better i'd feel a little bit more comfortable you know holding from down here through august or september as long as this demand zone is holding but i mean if it goes under the demand zone it's going to be 5895 if it goes under that obviously that's your risk off it can get pretty violent because this is kind of like the last thing holding it up so it still has yet to test this zone just a little bit further down maybe it'll probably try to dip into it and that's when you can look to try to scoop it up and go counter-trend but i mean if monday if it you know seems like it's holding up and it looks strong NASDAQ's holding up strong and everything looks fine this can definitely balance just a tad shy of the demand zone you know we'll just have to see how that goes on monday or tuesday to go to the one day chart you can see i mean it closed very weak this candle took out the lows at thursday it also took out the lows at wednesday and overall it just closed with a lower low of this sequence right here so it looks like it's gonna definitely pull back into this just a little bit and that's when you can look to you know come in and scoop it up you can see the slow stochastic on the one day is also negative still so you don't have a positive cross if you want to wait for that cross that's smart honestly not a bad idea so it could be wise to wait for it to cross back up if you want to wait for a hint of momentum coming back your slow stochastic crossing back up it's going to give you that hint so paypal here would be looking at calls especially i'm hoping for a further out swing trade just because it's looking pretty over sold it doesn't have to be super further out but i'm going to buy the contracts further out but i'd be willing to hold it for a week or two we'll just have to see and then i'm also willing to you know take day trades on this once it gets inside the zone or gives me some kind of 15 minute confirmation so paypal here looking at calls all right now we're going to go ahead and get into the indexes this is the spx or the spy s and p 500 it's also what we looked at in the season ax chart and this actually kind of is aligning with a small upthrust that i showed you it looks like from the 14th up till you know roughly the 18th or so so this week could have a short term upthrust we'll just have to see but you can see we're holding the back test levels last week i was actually looking for a pullback into four 450 we did exactly that so we hit my price target i was looking for this gap to fill also pretty much just looking for a little bit more of a pullback into the one week demand we covered last week and that was this zone right here so this base candle right here it's a rally base rally demand zone and your zone started at four 450 so that's what i was looking for we got that and that was as low as i could put it because of the demand zone and i mentioned we would have to get under the demand zone to even go any lower but now you can see we're also pulling into these previous back test levels so we have previous resistance from june 23 and also looks like mid june 23 as well so these two points could be a great back test trade it looks like that's pretty much setting up just for a short-term balance at least friday we closed over them and we also held them pretty strong if we go to the 15 minute your demand zone your back test levels and everything all resulted in a pretty strong hold i mean this it's choppy but it held and look your first initial reaction was great just totally ripped to the upside right off demand right off the back test levels and everything and then you can see we closed over them as well i think the futures are up just a tad nothing crazy i think they're up like 0.2 or something i wouldn't say that you know it closed super weak on friday it's only down you know a tenth of a percent nothing crazy so i'm not looking for your typical red friday red monday which is a common pattern i would need to see a little bit weaker for me to expect it to go lower but i think it happened as long as these back test levels are holding and this demand is holding i feel like we're gonna see that a short-term balance and that also aligns with the seasonality for this week so we'll just look as far as this week and then you know kind of take next week depending on the friday close so looking for just a short-term balance on spx this week or spy as long as the back test levels are holding and i think it you know looks pretty good setting up one thing i don't like slow stochastic is crossed down so maybe if you're skeptic you'd want to wait for that to cross back up which is reasonable but like i said you got your back test levels holding still as long as we open above these on monday there's a good chance you know we can bounce especially into tuesday right next we're going into the qqq so last week we were focused on it taking out the previous one week lows we were also focused on spx taking out the previous one week lows and i mentioned that you know the fact that both of them did that that it couldn't you know send everything just a little bit lower i wasn't expecting too big of a move down qqq got the shit into the stick the most it pulled back the most and it also broke its back test levels you had a back test level here similar to the spy and one right there this general 372s was the must-hold area you can see once it got below that big flushes and now we're kind of pulling into the 363s and just the lower 360s which is kind of aligns with this demand zone so drop-based rally demand zone this is also just a general area of support that it's bounced from previously first i want to show you once i got under the back test levels you know look at the how the selling picked up it's pretty crazy so that's why spx like i just showed you it's holding those back test levels it has to remain above them otherwise you can you know start looking like this and breaking down so as long as spx you know is holding over that it looked fine and when qqq was holding it right here it also looked fine it looked like it could bounce but then once we you know started getting under it that's when the selling started to pick up so this week i'm probably just expecting the same thing as the s&p just a little short-term bounce you can see it's really close to 363 40s which is this support so this general area is somewhat held i mean it's nothing crazy this is not the most bullish bar so it might you know we might want to wait till tuesday to see you know if we can get the regular tuesday reversal just because i mean it closed weaker than spy on friday so we could see that red friday red monday for the qqq and then just see chop for the spx but it just depends you know i don't have a crystal ball or anything i'm just kind of going off patterns and previous experiences so as long as this 363 41 is holding i feel like you know it could bounce this week similar to the spy and hopefully just follow the seasonality uh my favorite spot for this to bounce would probably be the demand zone i'm showing you right here this is a great base candle this is a big sell imbalance that led to a big buy imbalance so this area is probably the biggest focus for me i would like to see you get down there eventually and i would you know be willing to scoop it up you know for a just a quick dead cap bounce or some type of reversal play off of demand like i said you know you do have this support 363 is just just shy of the demand zone so this whole 363 down to 357 is a potential area of support uh i wouldn't want to short right here personally i'd probably want to wait till september or at least you know towards the end of august to start looking at puts again or you know if we start breaking under this demand zone and under the demand zone i showed you on spx i'd be willing to as well i feel like regardless of where we're at i'm still gonna pick up a hedge towards the end of august i'll probably just buy some spy puts or qqq puts or something just to have a little bit of exposure just in case the you know the historic data is correct and we do that september correction that i showed you in the season x chart so we'll have to see but qqq here it doesn't look horrible it doesn't look great either i would say the spx looks better it held the back test levels as qqq did not hold the back test levels over here that i'm circling so now we're gonna be looking for support down at 363 40s like i said or this demand zone so it might need to go a little bit lower first to start getting in at those levels you can see the slow stochastic also cross negative so it's nothing great here at least spx had the back test level holding qqq broke the back test level and has the slow slow stochastic negative so just want to be careful of that maybe wait for it to get down to these levels to buy or to look for upside all right next we're going into the iwm so these past couple weeks have been really iffy for the iwm just because we have that supply zone i've been covering it's all the way from early 23 this is that rally-based drop supply zone it's been rejecting off that but then we also had a rally rally-based rally demand zone which is this base candle right here it bounced off of that a few times and i try to hold it up pretty well now we're kind of starting to get into the lower end of the demand zone but still holding the general area you also have a 189-24 back test level so this is previous resistance from june i can hold it as a back test level so ideally i kind of expect the same thing similar to the spx just because it's holding the back test level we could see it bounce here and then as well we're holding the demand still the one thing i don't like is this slow stochastic here it's still negative there's no indication of a crossover yet it's actually a pretty clean down move in terms of that but it is starting to get into you know the lower 20 area which is kind of like a rsi right once it starts getting into the 30 area on rsi people start looking you know for bounces or they start expecting it to get a little bit over sold this is similar once the slow stochastic starts getting in the 80s it's a good time to you know be careful as well as it's a good time to start being careful once it gets into the 20s because it could be getting oversold so that's all i meant by that but we're holding up the back test level 189-24 it didn't tap it directly so like i was saying earlier you know just look for the general area to hold up because your level is not always going to hit to the penny you know you just got to be careful with that you might miss out so but it's holding up pretty good i feel like this could see a short-term balance as well along with the spx as long as your back test levels are holding if it starts to get under that 189-24 that's where it starts to get just a little bit scary because you have all by imbalance right here and then no demand please start getting down to the lower 180s so i am here looking for a bounce as long as we're holding over the 189s all right next we're going into the vix so vix actually broke back under our 1553 the level we've been covering for a few weeks i mentioned that i needed to stay over that and also get over 17 in order to go higher it failed to do that you can see 17 is a huge struggle you have monday here hard rejection it actually spiked back up got all the way up to 18 almost but still closed just a little bit under 16 so it's been reacting to this 17 like it's a big big resistance so that's why i mentioned that it needed to get over the 17 and close over the 17 in order to keep going higher it was not able to do that and then you can see a really desperate attempt here at 1553 we have multiple bounces and closes right at the 1553 level but then once we had a friday market you know pretty much just crush the vix as it usually does it loves to do it on fridays like we do to options and other factors but it's back under the 1553 now so now i kind of and expecting the market to have a little short-term relief especially that it's back under 1553 and it closed back under it none of these bars right here last week even though it sold off it never closed under the 1553 this week we're going into 17s rejections and we're going into a close under 1553 so that makes me feel a little bit better about the market bouncing up just short-term at least i'm not expecting too much i'm not really looking any further than this week just because i have no idea how to forecast i don't have a crystal ball or anything like that so i kind of just take a one day one level one week at a time and right now we're closing under 1553 to involve totally is getting back to lower levels you can see we have the 2021 low at 1473 right here another 2021 low at 1410 right here so these are really low vix levels these are you know years old so and it wouldn't even lower than that at one point down to 1273 so if it starts getting under these 2021 lows you see it go right back to 1273 although i don't think that's likely with september coming up but she usually has a correction that could send the vix spiking back up higher but i'd need to see it get back over 1553 again and closing over that and that would change my mind and you know that could have you looking crazy for a little bit because it's just chopping and it closed over 1553 a couple times but then once you look at the 17 wick right here you understand why it didn't go higher so your close over 17 was your next piece of evidence to start looking for that market pullback or at least a you know a sound one like a you know one that looks like it's definitely going to happen uh wasn't able to do that so market's been pretty resilient and volatility is going back lower again so you kind of have to make the assumption that the market could bounce this week's closing under 1553 it's back under 15 flat so 15 is definitely a psychological level it has been for a couple months now so yep looks like vix is going to go just a little bit lower here but you know mark these 1473 and 1410 those are two 2021 lows and look for them to break under those on the shorter time frames it starts getting under that that's a good signal that the market can go higher all right next we're going into the dx y so this is the u.s dollar we're looking for it to get over this trend line before assuming anything and it finally broke out of that so i can really expect this to go a little bit higher as long as it gets over 103 so when i broke out my price target was going to be the 2020 covid peak which has always kind of been my go-to level here in terms of using it as a level to get over or get back under that's kind of the extreme level so if it gets over 103s obviously that can take you to 103 50s which is this little peak right here and then above that you know back to upper 104s so i really can't see paths 103 right now because we're still under it but if we can get over that and close over it i can definitely see the you know dollar going higher and that could scare the markets but markets haven't really been reacting too much to the dollar i mean obviously we had a little pullback last week is nothing huge volatility still closed down 6% dx y has been doing its own thing i mean it's it's been bouncing since mid july so and even with this balance and reclaim back over the 100s market's still been doing fine and we haven't really had a huge correction or anything just you know there's that little pullback that we were expecting into 4450 on the s and p that we went over last week so the correlation with the dollar and the markets have been really goofy lately and it's good to see the vixen the dollar move together to kind of get a really good volatility signal because that's what i'm using the dollar for i'm using it for you know volatility signals because when the currencies get volatile that's when equities can get volatile as well so now we're breaking out and you know that's just a little bit scary especially if you're a trader in 2022 i mean we were reacting to every single dollar move possible if the dollar was up the markets were down if the dollar was down the markets were up that's just how it was for like a year straight so we're kind of just getting out of that and the correlation along with everything else is kind of switched up a little bit bonds were also selling off with stocks which is really strange because bonds you know used to be a good hedge when the market would go down bonds would go up and that's why the 6040 portfolio exists which had the worst year it has had in a really long time the 6040 portfolio did horrible in 2022 which just goes to show you the correlation with some of this stuff it's just been really wacky it's pretty crazy though seeing the dollar get back over 182 after this really steep sell-off and then it's just been going non-stop since and now we're breaking out of this trend line it makes you wonder if we start shooting over 103 is that going to bring the market back down and maybe the market won't be as resilient because once it gets over that 2020 covid peak the market tries to go to extremes i'm going to get over 103 here dollar shot really heavy it tried to get over 103 here and you can see the volatility picked up a little bit and then ended up failing at 103 50s so if it starts getting over 103 and closing over that you know you might as be careful with the market and that could spook people to start selling equities so just keep that 103 level in focus you can see the slow stochastic starting to get kind of up into overbought levels but it's still positive right the crossover is still up it's just you know in the upper 80s so once it got up into the 90s here back in May the dollar did eventually sell off and you can see that here i can even draw a line right here so this is where it topped out right here up here it's in the upper 90s and that's when the dollar sold back off so dollar's kind of getting back up to that level so that's why i need to see it getting over 103 first i know before assuming it can go higher but you do have the breakout here which is good if you want to see the dollar go higher right now it looks like it's actually starting to work its way up almost at 103 now so shooting up a little bit tonight which is a little bit concerning especially if you want to see the market go up but you know markets resilient it can shrug off currencies we'll just have to see but right now the dollar is showing us a breakout and we're coming up to a major 2020 level which is the covid peak from the last dxy spike so that's the video guys hope you guys enjoyed make sure you like comment and subscribe to our x-trails user channel i'm gonna get this chopped up edited and sent out i love you guys and i'm out