 Rwy'n dweud y GOFAM yn gallu sicrhau bod oes bod cymdeithas, tynnu gyda OK. Felly yw'r adciwliadol ein cydylniad yn gweithiol i ddau wael ffawr, yn gweithio digwydd eich ddeu. Yn y cweithio, mae'r cyfrwng perffweithiwch yn dweud, yn edrych yn 30 ym 10 o mi. Rwy'n dweud, yn hwnnw'n cytwmiad Llywodraeth o staffwch, mae'r graffau a'r hyn wedi rhoi ddechrau i fynd. Ie ddweud allan. Yn gafodau Gavine Ffriggard, y sefydliadau reisarcher at y Gwm Gwm, wrth gwrs, fyddwn ni'n gwybod yn gweithio i'r gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gwirio. Mae'n holl i'r tyfnod. Mae'n gwneud yn llwythoedd, ac mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio, ac mae'n rhaid i'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio. We have a number of projects to do that, including the one that I lead, which is Whitehall Monitor. And this is a version of our launch presentation from November, where we launched this Whitehall Monitor 2015, the coalition in 163 charts. Now, if you'd be pleased here, I'm not going to run through all 163 charts in the next 25 minutes. I'm actually going to show you about 17. That's a reduction of about 90% the sort of number that George Osborne can only dream of. I'm going to give you four main stories that come out of the report. And I should also just say, although this is a sort of big product for us, the annual report, we do blog regularly as well, so it's a very agile, iterative process. And in fact, if you go on our website, you can see two blog posts this week, one on diversity and inclusion in the civil service, and one on trust in civil service and in politicians. So, the four key stories that I'm going to run through today, looking back over the coalition, but also looking forward over the next few years, are on spending and how that has changed, what's happened to the civil service workforce, digital, which is obviously one of the watchwords of the last parliament, and is likely to be for the next few years as well, and as you would hope from a data journalism project, which uses government open data, and which I'm talking about at the Open Data Institute, I'll talk a bit about data as well. So, let's start with spending. There's quite a big priority for the coalition and bringing the deficit down. That's the difference between government expenditure and government receipts, which they actually bring in. So, these blue dots, these blue markers that you can see there, and those are receipts. That's the money that government has brought in, and you can see that it's climbed from just under, well, just over 530 billion in 2009-10 to nearly 650 billion at the end of the coalition. Some of that's been driven by an indirect taxation and the yield being increased. So, that's what government's been bringing in. This is what it's been spending overall. So, you can see it's actually more than government's bringing in, but it's not risen by that much. It's been 690 billion to about 740 billion. So, public spending has been kept largely under control, and as a result, the deficit, which is the difference between the two, has fallen from 154 billion to 90 billion. George Osborne hopes that there will be a surplus rather than a deficit over the next few years. So, you can see how the government is moving towards that. Now, there's always a lot of attention about government spending and government income, and we sometimes forget about another big part of government finances, which is assets and liabilities. Now, note that we're talking in the billions here. If we look at assets and liabilities, we're talking in the trillions. This is a lot of money. The capital is the assets that government holds. That could be anything from infrastructure like roads, and that's the liabilities, which can include anything like public sector pensions, the public debt. Again, you can see there's quite a big increase in some of those liabilities. That's across the whole of government, a departmental level, and we have 12 pages on government finances in Whitehall Monitor 2015, so do take a look. A departmental level, some of the big drivers of that are nuclear decommissioning, and also negligence claims to liability for that at the Department of Health. That's the overall picture of government spending and how it's changed. What about different government departments? I think a lot of people, when they think of government departments, probably think of what they have in common. They have a permanent secretary and a minister that sits around the cabinet table. They get money from the Treasury and they get to spend it. But actually, there's a lot of difference within that, and we'll go on to how they spend it in a second. This is our planetary system of government departments and the total spending of each. Plan total spending in 2014-15. This is where you will notice that there are no department names. I'm, of course, going to ask you what do you think the biggest departments are? There's one on 175 billion and another on 120. What do you think those departments are? The big spenders across government? DWP? Any other offers? MOD? Health? NHS? Let's have a look. You can see that the biggest spender is the Department for Work and Pensions. You've then got the Department of Health, Education, HMRC, Ministry of Defence is down there. It's still one of the middle-sized ones. You can see that they get progressively smaller until you get to the smallest of the lot, which is only on 0.2 billion. It is nevertheless the sun around which all of the other departments revolve. What's going to happen to this over the next few years? From the spending review, we know that some departments, such as the Department of Health, Department for Transport and parts of the MOD as well, have got protected spending and might see some increases. A lot of the other departments will still see decreases in budget over the next five years. Again, it's a mixed picture of which they each have to spend. They also vary, as I mentioned, in how they spend it. This is our heat map of different ways of spending within government departments. We group them into four different models of departments, if you like. In the top left, you can see that really dark pink shows that that's where most of their expenditure is going and it's through direct management. Departments like Defence, Revenue and Customs, the Treasury and Work and Pensions actually have a lot of control on most of their spending. Think of DWP with its job centres across the country and sort of benefits HMRC and the tax system. So those direct management departments, if you're thinking about reducing how much they spend over the next few years, which is obviously something the government has thought about, you're thinking about cuts to spending, cuts to workforce, head cap, that sort of thing. So that's our first group of department, the direct managers. Next group are those that sponsor bodies. Some of these ones are DEFRA which is Environment Health because NHS England and Public Health England and I technically arms length bodies. DCMS, Culture, Media and Sport is always a good example. That's the sort of galleries, museums which are executive non-departmental public bodies. Governments are often attracted to the bonfire of the quangos like moths to a flame. There's always a temptation just to get rid of the numbers that fell from just under 700 of these bodies at the start of the coalition to just over 400 at its end. Of course if this is the way that you manage your spending you have very good relationships with those arms length bodies it's a completely different set of skills you need in your department to those direct managers. So it's not just about getting rid of numbers it's also about thinking what functions should rightly be held in arms length bodies thinking about how you manage them, how you make them more effective. Now we move on to system and grant funding. The Home Office is a good example of this so is international development and so is communities and local government and education which give big grants to particular systems or other recipients. So with communities and local government for instance it's local councils. So again a bit like arms length bodies a lot of the money is going straight out of the department. Again you need different skills to be able to manage that properly. And our final group of departments are those that have quite a lot of their spend going through markets and contracting. Ministry of Justice is a good example with things like probation and again education and academy spend another very good example. We've seen a bit of a shift in those departments and elsewhere to more of this model over the last few years and again you need to think about what you're doing as a department if that's the model you're following. You need people with the commercial skills to manage contracts rather than running because it's quite a different skill set. And then you can see the full constellation of the different management models. Now some of those models have actually changed quite dramatically during the last parliament. This is one example which is the department for education. And you can see you've gone from a lot of system and grant funding giving money to skills through local authorities to much more of a markets and contracting model to academies. Now as I mentioned if you're shifting that model that you have to do them. In fact DFE's accounts have been given an adverse opinion by the head of the national audit office precisely because it's quite difficult to track some of that spending through academies. So again there's a sort of warning there about what can happen if you don't think about those things before you shift model. So that's the sort of overview of spending. It's actually quite difficult a lot of the time to get more information on that and how different spending levels have changed and things like that because some of the data is still quite difficult to get hold of. So we did a very particular transparency exercise to try to test some of this. Departmental spending plans will inevitably change during the course of the parliament. They might plan to spend one thing but something will make that change. So we decided to look could we in publicly available documents explain the reasons for those changes. The answer in far too many cases was actually we couldn't. So you can see some of the departments towards the top and there's a lot of green for culture, media and sport, energy and climate change and health. Either there weren't that many changes to spending plans or where there were we could see in publicly available documents put on the department's website or late before parliament why those numbers had changed. Down at the bottom there was no explanation or it was incredibly difficult to find an explanation of why numbers had changed. Note that the chancellor's department the treasury and revenue and customs are right at the bottom of that table. Now if we are talking about further reductions in public expenditure we need to know more about what spending looks like. We need to see more greens on this table and especially the treasury which should be setting an example moving up to the top just so we can better understand where reductions can be made and how money is being spent. So that's the overall spending story. What's happened to the civil service workforce over the last five years? It's gone down is the short answer. This pink line is the actual number of civil servants. So the public sector as a whole is about 4.4 million. We're talking about 400 to 500,000 of that who are classed as civil service. And there's actually been a 15% reduction from about 480,000 at the time of the spending review in 2010 down to about 406,000 in March 2015. So it's been quite a dramatic reduction, one of the most dramatic over the history of the civil service. However, it's not as dramatic as the government expected. So that pink line is what actually happened. That dotted dark grey line that you can see is the expectation the government had back in 2012 in the civil service reform plan. They thought it would be operating with about 380,000 staff so you can see that actually they haven't met that expectation. I think it highlights how difficult it can be if there are to be any further reductions over the parliament. And you can see the pattern actually quite easy at the start and then it becomes much more difficult and much more off the expectation as you get towards the end of the parliament. Now of course those reductions have not affected departments in a uniform way. These are our small multiples. So these show you the percentage reduction or indeed in this case increase for different departments between spending review in 2010 and March 2015. DEC, DFID and the Cabinet Office have all seen rises in headcount. Most of in fact all of the others have seen reductions and you've got some down here work and pensions and communities and local government which have seen reductions of 30 to 40% actually much more dramatic. And it means that if you are thinking about further reductions over the next parliament these departments are all starting in very different places. That reduction in numbers has quite an impact on composition of the civil service as well. One of the most obvious ways is in age terms. So this is what's happened to the percentage of the civil service that's under the age of 30 in 2010 to 2015 and you can see it's fallen from 14% of the service in 2010 to just 9% in 2015. As we move from being under 30 to being over 30 a transition which we all have to make at some point regrettably we can see that 30 to 39 has been roughly constant. There's been a fall at 40 to 49 but as we get into the older age groups you can actually see a large increase in the percentage of the civil service that's over the age of 50. It's gone from 32% in 2010 to 40% in 2015. A reflection that a lot of the reductions overall are made by freezes to recruitment so you're not getting younger newer people coming in at the bottom of the civil service and working their way through. That might have some consequences for what sort of skills you're bringing in and sort of bringing the new generation of civil servants through. So it's had an impact on age it's also had an impact on the grade balance. Now believe it or not you're about to see the most retweeted most visited charts that we've published on Whitehall Monitor. It doesn't sound like the most promising of topics does it? So this is showing the grade balance of the civil service in 2010 and we've sort of mirrored the axis so you get that nice shape and you can see that you've got most of the civil service or a large bit of the civil service at the most junior levels at the bottom administrative levels and as you move up through the different grades right up to the senior civil service at the top you can see you've got more at the bottom and fewer at the top. That's 2010, let's see what happens in 2015. You can see that there's been some movement upwards, you're actually getting slightly smaller percentages at the bottom and you're seeing the senior grades increasing in percentage size and in fact if we can bring on the next slide you can see that the grey is what disappeared between 2010 and 2015 and the light blue is the increase between 2010 and 2015 so you can see it's become more senior. Again, that changes across different departments. These are our spaceships as we call them. So you can see up in the top left hand corner you've got the sort of kite shape of Difford and you've got the worryingly coffin shaped cabinet office and those are all quite top heavy departments and they've become more senior over the last five years. On the bottom row you've got the Dome of St Paul's that is the Department of Work and Pensions and Church and Temple-like constructions where you've got big delivery departments which have a lot of people out in the country at more junior levels such as job centres for DWP and then you've got the more white hall focus departments which are slightly top heavier. What happens to this over the next few years is a very interesting question. I mentioned that this is one of the charts we've had the most interest in. We've had a lot of departments get in touch to ask us to replicate that or show them how we did the charts and chose the power of data visualisation because they wanted to use this internally and to look at their units and various different teams in their department to see what it should look like and how it compared to others in terms of grade structure. Lynn Homer who is now the outgoing permanent secretary at Revenue and Customs said in an interview with Civil Service World she thought that digitisation of HMRC services would make it more of a diamond shaped department as you ended up with fewer people on the administrative level and more people concentrated around the middle. Let's see what happens over the next few years. That means there's been a lot of change to the civil service. We've seen staff numbers fall. We've seen the age profile change. We've seen the grade profile change. A lot of upheaval. As this incredibly exciting chart shows you that hasn't had much of an impact on civil service engagement scores. There's a big civil service people survey every year which asks 60 questions about various bits and pieces. This is the engagement index which takes five questions and gives a good indication of how civil servants feel about their department. Quite a good indicator of organisational health and you'll see that despite all of that upheaval it's remained reasonably steady. The story is very different within different departments. Some have seen quite big falls and recovered again. Others have seen rises. HMRC is still the lowest for instance but it has seen definite improvements since 2009. It means that departments will be starting at a very different place if there are to be further reductions and further changes to their departments over the next few years. That's spending and workforce. What about digital? Again, one of the watchwords of the parliament and in its sort of simplest definition I suppose digital means just putting stuff online. These are weekly unique visitors to gov.uk since it's being a single platform in 2012 to the May 2015 general election. You can see there's a huge increase in users to around 12 million a week. Those big troughs there are December Christmas time. Apart from those people who are filling in their tax return on Christmas Day because there definitely are a few but you can see that gov.uk is becoming increasingly used by people as they go to gov.uk to look for information but also to use services which are increasingly migrating online. During the last parliament Government Digital Service had 25 exemplar services to try to demonstrate what could happen with digitising them. I'm just going to take three examples. The first one is voter registration. All this chart is showing you when the discovery phase of the exemplar was completed when it went into public beta and when it went live. You can see voter registration was discovery completed in February 2012 when it went live midway through 2014. How many of you registered to vote online just out of interest? Quite a few of you have used that one. Good service. Satisfaction is very high with it. It was a sort of quite a front-end transformation because you would fill in the form online. Behind all of that it was still the same process with local councils having to send you things through the post. So it's a good example of something that a lot of people like, a lot of people used but you're not completely transforming the service. Next example is prison visit booking. I won't ask you if you've used this particular one. This is often used as an example by GDS of something which could be government as a platform where you have a particular type of service, in this case booking meetings which could be used across Government not just for prisons but with other applications. Again you can see that that went live midway through 2014. Finally, so those are sort of relative successes. We then have rural payments which didn't work out quite so well for those of you who follow the reports of the Public Accounts Committee. This is about farmers and common agricultural payments. Digitisation didn't really work and they had to go back to a paper based system certainly in the short term. Quite a lot of money more was spent than was expected. So this does show the challenges of digital transformation even though you can see from the other possibilities over the next Parliament as well. Finally this might be of most interest to some of the people in this room. Data. At the Institute we've started to think about data in three different ways. Data is data which is the stuff being published. Data is information which is turning it into something useful that you can understand which we see our role as being at the Institute in some respects. Data is evidence which is actually using the data to mean something whether it's tracking progress or making improvements. So taking data as data these are now slightly out of date for reasons that I'll come onto. These are two major international rankings of how good the UK is compared to other countries in open data release. Anybody know where the UK is? Come on to that in a second. It's actually in these 14 and 14 it's in the top. So that's where the UK was placed in these two major international surveys and I think a reflection of a lot of hard work that's gone on in Cabinet Office and elsewhere in Government to open up data. As was mentioned the most recent open knowledge rankings were out in November or December I think. UK has slipped to number two behind Taiwan. There are a lot of difficulties in measuring that for instance financial data gets a very good score whereas our experience of it suggests otherwise but it's a very good indication of where the UK is generated. That's not to say that there aren't problems. This is just one example. This is one of the charts in the report which shows you the professions that each civil servant belongs to within each department. The pink is operational delivery the blue is policy the lighter shades of grey are various specialist functions and corporate functions and the really dark grey which you can see a little bit of on the left of HMRC is where we don't know what the profession of a civil servant is. The boxes move from 2010 on the left to 2015 on the right so you can see that DWP and HMRC dominated by delivery not much has really changed. DFID it's gone from policy dominated to I think operational delivery now slightly bigger part of the department has a definite shift there. I mentioned that dark grey was where we don't know what a civil servant does. DFT 100% we don't know. MOD has got better DCMS has got worse and MOJ is all over the place frankly. So we're seeing sort of individual departments there if you actually look at the whole civil service we don't know the profession of one in eight civil servants. So there are certain areas where data quality can still be improved. Why might this be important? Again if we go back to the reductions that have already been made the changes in what departments do it's quite helpful to know what your staff are doing in order to know where you need to strengthen and where you might be able to reduce. So that sort of data is data good record but still improvements that need to be made. Data is information there is some data which government itself needs to present more clearly I know we put a lot of focus on them publishing the data for other people to use which is absolutely right but there are certain key things where government should explain to the population what's going on. So one study that we did and we got a separate report on this from March or April 2015 as well around impact indicators sounds incredibly exciting doesn't it? This was the way that government measured performance of departments the outcomes and the impact that they had the number of people on particular types of benefit the percentage of trains that run on time and I think the the farmland bird index is one for the department of environment the number of species that you would find and whether they died out or not so all of these things are measuring what a department does. So how good is government at explaining these quite important political indicators to the population? Picture varies but there's a lot of red we went through 207 impact indicators for this analysis and we asked four questions could we find the current score and we were quite generous on that current meant anything in roughly the last year were the numbers contained in the annual report that the department lays before parliament was it available as open data and crucially was it presented in a way that the public could understand because this was one of the intentions behind introducing the impact indicators some departments were very good at this culture media and sport had very nice spreadsheets where everything was charted and there was a nice explanation of what was going on DWP has a lot of data and a lot of detail DCLG has a dashboard they all scored rather well down at the bottom you can see the treasury again and the cabinet office some scores hadn't been updated in more than a year wasn't available in open data very difficult to find in the annual report and it wasn't presented in any sort of way that would make sense to a member of the public weren't even told whether they wanted the score on something to go up or to go down in many cases this also talks quite a bit about the use of data this implies that departments weren't taking a lot of these things particularly seriously therefore they weren't using them to measure their own performance monitor their own performance and drive improvement now this is possibly my favourite chart in this presentation these show you mentions of a particular word ongov.uk now you can see that there was one mention back in 1977 and there have been two mentions of it since the first of November 2015 anybody have any idea what this word might be I'd be stunned if anybody got it no? dog food now the mention in 1970 is a fascinating report from the monopolies and mergers commission about the supply of dog and cat food in the UK you'll be not surprised to know that's not what we're talking about today does anybody know what dog fooding refers to using your own data and it comes from the possibly apocryphal story of a manufacturer of dog food eating his own dog food to show the quality of it and one of the things that we were struck by with the impact indicators and elsewhere is that so much of this data which can be really useful is not being used by the departments that are producing it it's not being used by parliament to scrutinise departments and as we saw from the impact indicators it's not being used by the public in many cases as well dog fooding is something which has appeared in a couple of Matt Hancock speeches since November and it's something that we would very much encourage one of those speeches was in Germany so apparently so hopefully we'll hear a lot more about this and it's about actually taking the data and using it to make government more effective we put some recommendations in my whole monitor very broad fairly basic recommendations in the first one of these annual reports we had quite a long list of things quite a lot of them haven't despite a lot of progress over the last few years actually come into being so we thought we'd keep it quite simple because although there has been a lot of progress and a lot of things that we should celebrate there's still a lot that could be improved there's still a lot of data that's not being published in an open format for instance there's not a good reason for not doing that in many cases we still have to wave through PDFs there's still a lot of inconsistency in how departments are referred to which is why just having a canonical register of government organisations would make it much easier to link up data sets and actually use this data properly we thought there should be a release calendar and there should be documentation which explains a lot of the data more assiduous in using data something that both government and parliament should definitely look at and also a few things around user groups and what the remit of the new chief data officer should be things have moved on slightly since then and we're very pleased that Paul Maltby the head of data at the Government Digital Service blogged rather positively about these very broad rules so hopefully we'll see some progress or some further progress over the next few years so to recap spending government has reduced the deficit different departments spend different things and some of them vary quite widely in how they spend that money and how that model has changed over the last parliament workforce again we've seen a lot of reductions from 480,000 civil servants to 406 and that's had consequences for what the civil service looks like digital we've seen some of the possibilities we've seen some of the successes over the last few years but there are going to be challenges ahead despite great opportunities for digitising public services and data, the UK has done a reasonable job there's still a lot more that can be done and we will hopefully all be there to support the government in doing that one final slide before we go to questions we hope that you will use Whitehall Monitor as well we tried to publish all of the data that we use we obviously chart quite a lot of it is in this which is downloadable from all good Institute for Government websites and we also as I said blog regularly you can hopefully find a nice sort of repository of all the stuff that we've done hopefully it will be of use if there's anything you think we should be doing that we don't if there's anything that will make it easier for you to use or to understand do just get in touch thank you very much indeed