 Hello everyone, welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern time. Before I get started, I need to go through the disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures equities and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Here's my contact information. If you have questions after the webinar, especially for those of you in YouTube, the best way to contact me is through Discord. My name at Discord is Doug P. And in Bookmap Discord, there's an Options-Doug Chat channel that is for content related to this presentation, options order flow, hedging flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures. So anything related to my presentation as well as any content related to those topics. So Options-Doug and Bookmap Discord, and again, I am Doug P. in Discord. I'm also on X, formerly known as Twitter. My name there is at Doug Plus. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the Options-Doug Chat channel is options order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning. And I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as the directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in Spot Gama Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And when I talk about setups today, I will be talking about setups in an underlying asset. Setups can be taken any number of ways. For example, the SAP 500, the setups that I talk about can be taken with futures, ES futures, SPY shares, SPY options, or SPX options. Questions and comments are welcome. And I will be watching both the Options-Doug Chat channel and Discord as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. So please feel free to post. I'll do my best to answer. My agenda for today, what I want to cover, first of all, go over news items for today, the rest of the week, economic data, events, and earnings. Then I'll go through my positional analysis, my planning process for today. Then I'll review some setups from this morning. And then we'll talk about the live market. And when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know and I'll be glad to do that. All right, let's get started with news items. So it's a very light week this week. There were a couple of items out this morning. Let's go back, go to book map. So book map, there was a, this is the ES futures. I want to show a couple of events. So first of all, this morning there was a Fed speaker right around 84845 Waller. His comments were interpreted as bullish and led to, this is before the cash open, led to a quick move up to the spy 451 large gamma three level, which has acted as resistance. So that was the first news event for today. And then there was also some PMI data out services PMI at 945 and 10 a.m. Right. So that's for today. News items. And then, well, I'm sorry, I got that wrong. The services PMI is tomorrow. So that is 945 and 10 a.m. tomorrow. Today it was factory orders at 10 a.m. And that came out a little bit better than expected, but was lower than the previous and was negative. Right. So today I'm sorry, 840 around 840 Fed speaker and then factory orders at 10 a.m. tomorrow services PMI 10 a.m. 945 and then a variety of Fed speakers throughout the week. So very light week this week as far as economic data and events are concerned. And then that will pick up next week with CPI data and options expiration. So I'll talk more about that next week. Right. So that is economic data and events for this week. Now let's let me go through my positional analysis. Again, this is ES futures, S&P 500 futures and book map. Before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger timeframe. This is SPX and a 30 day one hour chart. This is thinkorswim. You're showing price and key levels. So first of all, let's talk about price. This is the reversal higher at the options expiration for August August 18th options expiration. That was a very negative gamma put dominated slightly put dominated expiration. And as the those puts that expired on that Friday closed, they disappeared, lost value. Market makers could buy back short hedges and that price action really continue except for a slight dip right before drone pal speaking at Jackson Hole and then has continued higher from a negative very, very negative gamma environment to now a positive gamma environment. I'll talk more about that in a minute. So let me point out some levels on this chart. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. This is a four day trading week, pretty narrow range. And then also that so that's the weekly expected move based on the options market. The dash blue line showing the lower and upper daily expected move. Also a pretty narrow range. So right now SPX is trading inside both of those ranges closer to the lower daily expected move. So those are the expected moves based on the options market should be available in any trading platform that has an options chain. Next levels are the spot gamma proprietary gamma spot gamma levels proprietary spot gamma levels available to spot gamma subscribers. I'm going to point out the key daily levels. First of all, there's the 4300 put wall that's a strike with the largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. And the next level up is the volatility trigger at 4495 that is spot gammas proprietary gamma flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to edge their delta exposure and that tends to enhance or increase volatility. On the other hand, above that level like SPX is trading now, market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. In a positive gamma environment, market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to subdue or decrease volatility. And then just above that at 4500 is the absolute gamma strike very key strike for today. That is the strike with the largest absolute positive and negative gamma. And that is where gamma is concentrated and where it looks like price has been seeking that level mean reverting around that level. And then the next level up, the key daily level is the 4600 call wall. That's the strike with large net positive gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. But right now the center of the universe for SPX is right around 4500. Let's take a look at one other SPX chart. This is just for today showing the levels in play for today. And then here is the 4500 absolute gamma strike. So price reverting up and down around that level on the morning broke out above and then made its way back down to the 4500 level. All right, let's take a look at book map now. So book map, I have my own cloud notes and I have the SPX levels. There's the 4500 absolute gamma strike. And then note there is a difference in price between ES and SPX. And right now it is right around 6. So I'm showing the SPX 4500 level at ES 4506. I also have, there's the 4495 volatility trigger. Now I also have SPI levels on this chart. There's the SPI 450 level. That is kind of the center of the universe for SPI. That's the absolute gamma strike. That's also the 0 gamma level. And then this 4451 large gamma 3 level that has acted as resistance and that was a great entry point for shorts. We'll take a look at that in a few minutes when we take a look at setups. One other thing to point out. So right now I'm just focusing on levels. And one other thing to point out is the, this purple line which is right, really right on top of VWAP. So this may be difficult to see. This light blue line is VWAP. The purple line is point of control right on top of each other, right around the 4511 level. So a pretty narrow range today with volume concentrated. This is the session volume profile with volume concentrated pretty much between 4505 and this 451 large gamma 3 strike. And point of control right in between. Right, let's talk about shifts in levels now. So for SPX there were no shifts in levels. Volatility trigger, put wall, call wall, absolute gamma strike all remained at the same levels from last week. For SPI there were a couple of shifts lower. The volatility trigger shifted lower to 449 and the call wall shifted lower from 455 to 452. So the call wall for SPI is just a little bit above the visible range on this chart. And again lower than last week. Alright so that is the SP500 key levels in play for today. Here's NASDAQ. In QFutures and BookMap I'm going to take a look again at a couple of charts. First of all isolate QQQ levels. And typically the QQQ round numbers are pretty important for NASDAQ. So there's the 376 level that is not a gamma level but did act as support this morning. And then the 379 level acting as resistance. And then here's the 377 volatility trigger. So for QQQ that 377 volatility trigger dropped lower from 378 last Friday. And also for QQQ the absolute gamma strike not shown on this chart at 375 that did move higher. So volatility trigger moved lower and absolute gamma strike moved higher for QQQ. Let's take a look at NDX. The reason I'm taking a look at these underlying indexes is these levels are key. The concentration of gamma are key to how market makers may have to hedge at these different levels. And I believe that market maker hedging flow is a key driver of price action in futures. For example in the SAP 500 when traders buy and sell options in SPX by market makers hedge so they take the opposite side of those options trades and then they hedge their delta exposure with futures, ES futures. And same for NASDAQ. So these underlying product QQQ and Q for NASDAQ are key and these levels concentration of gamma where market makers may have to hedge are very important and price often gravitates to those levels and reacts at those levels they can act as supportive resistance. So here's the 15,500 level for NDX in play for today. Let's go back to book map now, go back to NQ futures. And again I have my own cloud notes. I'm showing QQQ levels. There's the NDX 15,500 level. That is the absolute gamma strike for NDX. And we'll talk about setups in a few minutes. So that is the SP500 NASDAQ. Let's take a look at a couple of other pieces of information that I use in my planning positional analysis. So the next thing I look at is gamma notional. This is market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day for SPX by NDX and QQQQ. Note all these numbers are positive. So again in a positive gamma environment this means that traders are short calls, market makers are long calls, and they have to sell futures as price increases to hedge their delta exposure. And then as price drops they can buy futures. Buy back their short futures. So they're trading their futures. So they are trading against price in a positive gamma environment. And this is really neutral to positive. But again market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day. Positive for all indexes for SPX and SPY gamma notional did increase from last Friday. And for SPX and QQQ, gamma notional decreased from last Friday. But again all still positive. The main takeaway from this right here, we can take a look at the VANA model. And I'm going to look at SPX. Remember gamma notional at the beginning of the day was positive. So the low of the day was right around, I guess right around 44.97. Let's just check that. 44.96. So close enough. So what this is showing is a very slight tailwind from VANA as price increases and implied volatility drops. So let me explain what this chart is showing. So this is the VANA model showing market makers delta notional, their delta exposure on the vertical axis and how that changes with changes in price shown on the horizontal axis. The light gray curve shows how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price only. And the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation. That shows how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price and implied volatility. And that change in delta notional with the change in applied volatility is the VANA effect. That's a second order Greek. So this gives us an idea of how market makers may be reacting to changes in price and applied volatility. And really indicating not much of a VANA tailwind that has been more prevalent in the last few weeks in a very negative gamma environment, helping to fuel the route, the rally higher after that options expiration in August. So that VANA tailwind is pretty much gone. And if price continues to increase, market makers will need to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. They always would remain delta neutral. So again, the point, very little VANA fuel left in the tank to fuel the rally higher. So my thesis for the day, I was looking for lower volatility, more of a trading range. And that's what Spot Gamma was talking about in the Spot Gamma Am Founders Note. First of all, very little catalyst this week, not much news coming out. Looking for a quiet week with reversion around the large gamma strikes. So let's take a look now at some setups. I'm going to start with the S&P 500. This chart is the Spot Gamma hero chart, hedging impact real time options, HIRO hedging impact real time options. This is available to Spot Gamma subscribers. This chart is showing price for SPX. The purple line is the hero signal. That is showing options trades and market maker hedging activity for a combined signal for the S&P 500, SPX, SPY, XSP, and ES futures. All into one combined signal. So if you trade any form of the S&P 500, this is generally the signal that you want to take a look at. Spot Gamma does provide the individual signals. I typically just stick with a combined signal. Let's zoom in on this chart and just point out the time here. This is the cash open right here. 9.30 a.m. Eastern time. The main take-away from this chart is really the mean reverting price action. The hedging flow, options trades, hedging flow, mean reverting. So they're buying, selling the highs, buying the lows. So at what options traders consider to be a high point, high price, they are taking negative delta positions, fading that move higher, and then as price moves lower, they are fading the move again and start to take positive delta positions. So that led to multiple setups here. First of all, from the open, we'll take a look at book map in just a minute. So the open, looking for a short, and then right around 10.40, actually there are a couple of tests of this lower level that are right around that 44.96, just above the 44.95 volatility trigger. Options traders started taking positive delta positions. Price responds higher, then as price moved back up to that 451 level, the SPY 451, they started taking negative delta positions again, setting up a nice divergent short, and then right around 11.30, as price was moving down, they started taking positive delta positions again, helping to move price higher, and then right around 1.00. So they started taking negative delta positions again, and price moves lower, and now they are taking positive delta positions again, and it looks like it's taken a little while for price to respond, but now it's moving higher. So this options trades, hedging flow, definitely confirming the mean reverting thesis or plan for today. So let's go take a look at book map now. So book map first, there was the move higher before the cash open with the Fed Speaker Waller, and options traders started fading this move right around the cash open. That's where the options volume starts to come in with SPY and XSP, and price reverses lower. Oops, wrong tool. This is, let's zoom in just a little bit. So this is right at the cash open, and you can see the aggressive sellers come in right at the cash open. Options traders start taking negative delta positions, and aggressive sellers come in. That's shown by the magenta volume dot there. So aggressive buyers on the way up, volume comes in right at 9.30, large sellers, those are by minus sell, market orders, aggressive buyers move price down first to the 450 level, SPY 450, and then down below the 4500 level, SPX 4500 level, and aggressive sellers as well as options traders moving price down. Also sell stop orders, that's shown by the following yellow line here, as well as these red dots, sell stop orders feeling the move lower, and then remember options traders started fading this move lower, started taking positive delta positions, price moves higher, back up to the 4500 level, and the read and order flow was not as clear here. There were still some aggressive buyers up here with the green volume dots, but finally aggressive sellers start to come in. So up and down, trading in a range day, hero has been a very good leading or confirming indicator today, watching how options traders are buying the dips, selling the rips with options. So let's go take a look at, go back to hero, and be who, hello, welcome, glad you're here, and yes I will take a look at NVIDIA today. That was on my list to take a look at, so I'll definitely take a look at NVIDIA today. Alright, so very clear read in line with expectations, this mean reverting action with options traders. Let's just take a look at the next expiry, which would be the zero DTE. Notice the very close correlation, so this is showing again, zero DTE options trades for those components, SPX, SPY, ES futures, that is the green line, actually that notional value is larger than the all expirations. So anyway, you can just tell by the close correlation in these lines that zero DTE mean reverting options trades are playing a very large part in price movement today. We turned that off, so purple line again, this is all expirations today, tomorrow, next week, next month. So again, zero DTE mean reverting options trades, playing a large part in price action today. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. So NASDAQ not nearly as clear, a read today. We'll zoom in a little bit and a little bit more clear starting around 11 a.m., but options traders in NASDAQ, we're fading the move higher pretty much from the open. Let's go take a look at, back to book map, we'll take a look at NQ futures. Let me just take a look at one other thing real quick. So NASDAQ futures stronger today than ES futures, large cap tech, driving price action primarily in NASDAQ, pretty bullish order flow. Let's just look at, from the cash open to 376 level, QQQ376, act at a support here and here, and then after a retest, so cash open, price was already moving higher retest at 10 a.m., and then price has continued to higher for NASDAQ futures and order flow share shown here in the sub chart, all positive from the cash open. Pink line is cumulative volume of delta, yellow line, buy stop orders, rising yellow line, also large traders buying with iceberg orders, that's shown by the light blue line. Let's take a look at one. Let's take a look at a heat map for NASDAQ 100. So Tesla really helping to drive price higher today, very strong day in Tesla. Meta also green, Microsoft green. Right, so there's NASDAQ. The clues today were more here and more available in book map and order flow than hedging flow. So one of the things that I try to do every day is understand the drivers of price action, who's driving price, and then get on board. So today, aggressive buyers, large traders with iceberg orders, as well as buy stop orders, all helping to fuel the move higher, and options traders not so much today for NASDAQ. Alright, let's take a look at a few setups and stocks. I'm going to go back to hero. So first of all, here's AMD. Note the strong correlation between hedging flow and price action. 110 is the key gamma strike. Price is now trading above that level. So call buyers are really driving price action in AMD today. Calls are shown with the orange line, rising orange line, that's positive delta indicating positive delta traders of buying calls. That's also confirmed with the positive notional value here. They're also net selling puts. Although the put line is pretty small, this number 1.35 million, pretty insignificant compared to calls, but they are net selling puts. That's positive. When you sell a put, that's a positive delta position. So for AMD, traders buying calls and selling puts. Let's go take a look at BookMam. And in AMD, we'll see that water flow appears to be just looking at the volume dots appears to be somewhat bearish. You know, notice all the magenta volume dots there were sellers than buyers. This indicates to me that options traders are definitely helping to drive price higher. So in the case of AMD today, I would focus more on hero and what options traders are doing to inform any trading decision. And remember 110 is the key gamma strike. It was also the target for what looks like somewhat of a stop run, quick run. I don't know if that was news this morning, right around 12 o'clock. These green dots, small green dots showing a buy sweep up into that level all the way up to the 111 level. And now price is trading back up to that level. So options traders definitely driving price action today in AMD. Next we'll take a look at Microsoft. Let's go back to hero. So for Microsoft, the key gamma strike is 330. Some chop around that level this morning. And now Microsoft trading well above that level. So today traders are buying calls and selling puts that show them by the rising orange line, especially up until about 1130. Call buyers definitely driving price action higher. Notice as traders stop selling puts, they start buying puts, stop buying calls, start selling calls, price drops, and then starts a level off as traders stop selling calls and they start selling puts again. Let's go back to the total signal now. So up until about 11, 1115 or so, options traders were a very key driver of price action in Microsoft. So let's go take a look at BookBam. Here's Microsoft support at the 329 level. Also that was right around the opening print shown here with this large volume dot price breaks above the 330 key gamma strike and headed up towards the 335 liquidity level didn't quite make it there. And then consolidators started consolidate as options traders took their foot off the gas. Right the next is Nvidia. So here we go view choppy day in Nvidia. Let me just turn off all these green numbers, small green dots and also the red numbers and the small red dots. That is the sweeps indicator going to turn that off. It's just too much obscures price action. So I still have the absorption indicator. So the sweeps are showing aggressive buyers and then the absorption indicator is showing the passive, the limit orders, buyers and sellers. Alright so let's go take a look at Hero for Nvidia. I'm going to zoom in on the morning. So here in Nvidia options traders were taking positive delta positions just a few minutes after the open they started taking positive delta positions then they pretty quickly sold then started taking positive delta positions again but not to the degree they were before. So confirmation long, confirmation short then confirmation long again. Let's see what they were doing. So somewhat of a mixed picture. So it looks like price action really more driven by puts which is pretty unusual for Nvidia. So traders were selling puts that's shown by the rising blue line. They stopped and started buying puts and then again they started buying puts. Alright Joe says hello hello Joe. I don't see any flow alerts in Hero. I know it's still beta but I like seeing to correlate book map to Hero timing. Is it off? No I just haven't shown any alerts. So let's go back to the total signal. The alerts up here. There really haven't been many alerts in the stocks that I follow today. So this is the entire list of alerts. Again this is still in beta. If you're a Spot Gamma subscriber with an Alpha subscriber with access to Hero you can send an email to info at spotgamma.com and request access for beta testing. One thing that I have asked for is let's say I am here I have just turned on my watch list. So this is all the stocks available for Hero. This is all the stocks that have a Hero signal. It is a list that's not the entire universe of stocks. It is a list that is really confined to stocks that are largely driven or often driven by options trades and hedging flow. But one thing I have requested is if I turn on my watch list here so I am showing my watch list that these alerts be limited to the stocks on my watch list so that would make it more useful. So we can just run through all the stocks on my watch list. So here is a flow alert for Apple for example AMD no alerts, Amazon no alerts. So here is one flow alert in Google. This may be hard to see. I think they are going to do something about that. Joe I am showing this now. I don't know if you can see this. So let's go back and take a look at these alerts. So here is an alert in AMD at 212. So that was a couple of minutes ago. So click on it. So there is the alert in AMD. So this is the stock and the alert. So let's take a look at one other here. So we can take a look at XME for example. So there is the alert. I don't trade XME. I don't think there is not that much of an options activity in XME. So that is why I have my watch list here. That is why I want to watch just my watch list. So let's go back to AMD. So if I am trading I am going to keep this list open. I am going to watch for stocks that I like to trade. So let's go take a look at book map now. This is around 213, 212, 213 and AMD. So here is the alert right around here. Sometimes they are timely. Sometimes they are a little bit late. They are not perfect. So you always have to, it is not just a buy and sell signal. You have to review it, confirm it before you take any action. Let's go back to, so that is the only flow alert. I was thinking maybe there was one before. So anyway I have looked at AMD, Microsoft, Nvidia. Here is one for Google. So Joe if you are using the alerts this is what I do. So I am watching, I have hero up on one screen. I am watching these alerts. There is a flow alert for Google. So we will go take a look at book map. So for AMD that was a little bit late but still, if you took along right around 215 you would be up 50 cents. So Google, so Google right around there. So it looks like in this case for AMD and Google the flow alerts were more marking a breakout. Back to hero, so an alert in XLE. Looks like a big drop there in XLE. I don't have that in book map. Alright let's take a look. Let's go back to the broad market now. So more mean reverting action with SB500 options traders. Options traders started taking positive delta positions and price responded higher about 130. Let's go take a look at book map. Back to ES, zoom in. So as options traders started taking positive delta positions right at that 4500 level it took a while. Price moved up to the 450 level, moved back down, didn't quite retest the 4500 level and for this most recent swing higher, aggressive sellers moved price down, a little bit of a sell stop moved down and then aggressive buyers started to come in and price is moving higher. As again, options traders are taking positive delta positions. I like to point out when I'm trading I have multiple screens. Of course I can only present on one screen. So on multiple screens I have hero on one screen and book map on another screen and then whatever trading platform I'm using depending on whether I'm trading futures shares or options on another screen. So typically what I'm showing in my presentation is either book map or hero but I don't have to jump back and forth like I'm doing now. I have multiple screens so I can see book map and hero at the same time. So I think the hedging flow, order flow and the levels, the way prices reacting on the levels has been pretty clear on ES today. With the reactions at the ESBX and SPI levels. Let's take a look at Nasdaq. Nasdaq continues higher back up to the 379 level. Let's go see what options traders are doing. Still not much. So for Nasdaq options traders are not providing much of a clue today. On the other hand for SMB500 they're providing key or pretty substantial clue helping to drive price higher and lower throughout the day. Excuse me. Throughout the trading day so far. Let's go back to book map. Back to the SMB500. Zoom back out. So the target for this move higher would be back up to the 451 level. If options traders continue to take positive delta positions and aggressive buyers come in at the pull backs a little bit. So in a positive environment looking for a grind back up to the 451 level which would be just around 10 point higher. 4520. Interesting to note that large traders are bathing this move they have been all day selling with iceberg orders. Not aggressively but that blue line has been turning down since about 10 a.m. Light blue line showing iceberg orders. Cumulative for the day minus 1281. All these numbers are negative. Stops. Also cumulative volume delta options traders having a very large influence on price action today. Again fading the highest and lows. Let's go back take one final look at HERO. So so far the trend since about 110 per HERO has been higher. Largely driven by zero DTE options traders buying calls. So net for the day. They are buying calls. That's shown by the positive notional value there is whereas the in addition to the steadily rising orange line. Traders buying calls when traders buy calls market maker sell the calls and they have to buy futures to hedge their delta exposure. And they net for the day they have been buying puts. But now that line is starting to rise. And they are selling puts. Again net for the day they are still buying puts. Let's go back to book map. Alright so if ES can make it above this level then it looks like the next is 4520. Right at the SPI 451 large gamma 3 level. Alright my time is up. I want to thank everyone for watching. Thanks for your questions and comments. And I will see you tomorrow. Thanks again. Bye.