 Man, oh man, I live in a crazy world because I'm sitting here looking at an analyst a Japanese analyst that works for one of the largest e Shops or e stores. I guess that they have in all of Japan. They also technically have have an e outlet here in the United States I've actually used them Rakuten one of their major analysts is out there predicting sales Lifetime for PlayStation 5. Now, this is obviously a prediction analysts are working on right now as they work towards giving investment portfolios and ideas of what companies should expect if they buy Sony stock right now I know how PlayStation is going to affect that stock value and right now This analyst is projecting that there could be at least 200 million if not 300 million PlayStation 5 sold but really they expect it to sell over 600 million units over the next five to six years How the hell do you get to that? That is what three or four times? What the what the PlayStation 2 did the best-selling gaming platform like ever released? You know in terms of like individual gaming platforms. Well, here's how they get to this mystical number So Originally originally mr. Yesota amaka the chief analyst for Rakuten securities economic research Institute Long mouth mouthful to basically say that you know the subsection of Rakuten he works for predicts that the number of units sold will why would be 200 to 300 million in five five to six years And here is how he gets to those figures e-sports demands hardware that is fast and capable of advanced video processing Not only for professional gamers but also for the amateur athletes and spectator fans The high-spec low-priced ps5 is for today's games There is a possibility that it can become an international standard machine for e-sports instead of a personal computer And then goes on to say the data suggests that in the future the number of PlayStation 5s could reach the order of 600 or 700 million Aka four or five time the number of PlayStation 2s Which was the highest number ever for home video game consoles mr. Amaka said if the number of transfers from PlayStation 4 which is backwards compatible is about 120 million It's gonna be a little bit less than 120, but that's okay And if more than a hundred million e-sport competition population and then 400 million spectator Population are added in total PlayStation 5 can be a market of more than 600 million and to get a little context into it It says according to a 2020 global e-sports market report by Dutch research firm Nuzu the world's e-sports competition population in 2019 is estimated to be around a hundred million This was last year and the number of spectators is estimated to be at 443 million the number of spectators increases by 12.3 percent compared to 2018 Increased by 11.7 percent in 2020 to 495 million and increased into 646 million this in terms of spectators in 2023 three years later in the year 2018 to 2023 a Compound annual growth rate of 10.4 percent is projected for double-digit growth the data suggested in the future the number of PlayStation 5 We hit that 600 below a lot, etc. We already went over that so What the data obviously isn't taken in consideration is the crossover between spectators players and PlayStation 4 owners So again, they're already projecting 200 plus million just based on a hundred million e-sports players plus a hundred and twenty million PlayStation 4 owners, but there's already gonna be crossover in that audience let alone crossover in the spectator audience either way Let's say like, you know, they're being a little too bullish and it and it's closer to like 400 million It's not gonna happen. Let me explain why this analyst just doesn't get it and This is coming from someone who I used to play Madden professionally granted This was a long time ago So the e-sports community has massively changed because I did play on console back then Most of the e-sports community is ran on PCs. There's very few e-sports community that is not PC based and The ones that aren't are typically for games that are Console exclusive as an example. This one hits close to home with those guys The e-sports community for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is obviously not based on PC. It's based on switch Okay, but those kind of things already exist. So any like exclusive game That's only on a PlayStation 5 that has an e-sports community was already gonna be using the PlayStation 5 anyways, right? To really make it big in the e-sports community You have to compete with the personal computer But in doing research on the e-sports community and plus watching a lot of e-sports myself We all know that the computers used at these competitions are sponsored, right? Typically these computers are not owned by the competition committee. They're not owned by anyone running it They are basically Rentals that are out there by sponsors In order to get their brand name in front of people that are watching so that big audience of 400 plus million MSI or Whatever, you know Intel AMD they all sponsor these events to get these products and get these these computers in front of gamers in front of the competition and in front of consumers and the whole idea of course is to help increase You know purchases at home where people might consider buying, you know The latest Intel processor the latest AMD processor the latest MSI or ace's motherboard or all this jazz or certain gaming peripherals now peripherals are a little bit more Different there's a lot more options that are allowed for e-sports peripherals as every single e-sports player will have their own preferred mouse and keyboard Combination that they like to use So that's a little bit more flexible. It's just kind of like, you know, some people have their own controllers They like to use same thing the e-sports community not everyone is standardized to the same keyboard and mouse Typically, you're able to use your own As long as it's within a certain spec there are obviously Limitations and stuff like that. But here's the thing here is what's interesting about this The idea that this analyst thinks that PlayStation 5 can replace it because it's cheaper now look But I'm not gonna say there's no merit here The PlayStation 5 is cheaper than a lot of at-home gaming PCs and more powerful than a lot of at-home gaming PCs At least at the moment same as true of the Xbox Series X by the way, like, you know Why would it be Sony's platform over over Xboxes that that's one thing to consider but beyond that consider this e-sports events are sponsored in order for PlayStation 5 To become the de facto standard in the e-sports community it would need to be Sponsored Sony would have to invest hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars Sponsoring e-sports events to force the PlayStation 5 to be the de facto standard in addition in addition it would need to ensure that the latency using mouse and keyboard on the system is fully customized for These events for the games at the event select the League of Legends, which League of Legends is huge in the e-sports community So imagine that you need to have your PlayStation 5 run run League of Legends as well as a PC You can still run in the monitors and all that jazz and get your high refresh rate Although you're limited to 120 FPS, which I know they don't talk about but 120 FPS limit Could be a concern at certain events where people like to have their games running at higher than 120 FPS But that's neither here nor there that's obviously gonna be up to the event coordinators and what the rules are and what specs are searching But here's the number one issue With the thought process that PlayStation 5 can be an e-sports mastery and replace PCs which dominate the e-sports market and help prop up the Really the PC market in general though The one reason the PC market is thriving as much as it is especially with gamers is because of the e-sports community You know we watch e-sports we play we play these games we play League of Legends We play you know World of Warcraft you know there's online PvP championships and stuff for that like we participate in this stuff So why would PlayStation 5 replace PC because of the price? But the price is enough to do with it because these events don't pay for the machines anyways They're sponsored their ad spots. They're the hardware used at these events are ad spots So think about this think about this PlayStation 5 can't be upgraded beyond storage Okay in two years time the PlayStation 5 is going to be considered dated hardware There's going to be newer processors newer GPUs heck We could argue the RDNA to GPUs coming out right now might be more powerful than the ones that are in the third the 3000 series is probably more powerful than what's in a PlayStation 5 the there's already processors more powerful than what's in a PlayStation 5 Why would the e-sports community? Nerf themselves and lock in to a hardware standard for the next five to six years That's going to be dated before it even comes out if not dated definitely a year from now or two years from now Why would gamers? Professional gamers tie themselves to set hardware where games cannot perform better Because honestly if you could get minimal latency minimal MS at you know at pristine 4k and be pushing 120 plus FPS that's going to give you a distinct advantage There's a reason a lot of these e-sports players only play at 1080p because they want that super high refresh rate But imagine that you can get a super high refresh rate That's well beyond your capability of seeing a dip, but you can also do it at higher resolutions You're not going to pull that off on a PlayStation 5. It is absolutely ridiculous for this analyst to think to even conceptualize that PlayStation 5 could replace PCs in the e-sports world and let alone that Doing that would convert into 400 million people watching at home Picking up a PlayStation 5. I think the PlayStation 5 is going to sell incredible. I think it's going to be another 100 million plus unit seller for Sony No reason to think otherwise the only generation that Sony did not hit a hundred million with their home console It was PlayStation 3 and they launched that at a more expensive price than they're launching the PlayStation 5 And they did it with architecture that was more difficult to develop for at the time regardless of it technically being more powerful than the Xbox 360 It was just hard to develop for it was too different and gaming didn't go down that way Even though the PlayStation 3 ended up being why we're still using Blu-rays to this day and why HDDVD Didn't win the competition. It was largely thanks to the PlayStation 3 So when we look at the annals of gaming history and the annals of e-sports history I'm sorry analyst. Do you know what you're talking about? I get that these professional analysts are About trying to get people to invest and if you if you take this analyst prediction to heart I mean you should be buying Sony stock like crazy right now This guy this guy's predicting a minimum of 200 million and like a maximum of 700 million in In five to six years four or five six years One Sony will not be able to make enough playstations in that time Think about what I mean the guy's basically predicting Think about this logically if it's gonna sell, you know 500 600 700 million in four five six years It's gonna be selling what a hundred million units a year Sony won't even be able to manufacture a hundred million units a year Like let's just be realistic None of these companies have the capability of manufacturing a hundred million consoles per year because it's an unrealistic unattainable figure It's not happening. Could it sell 25 million a year? Sure, and then you'd see you know in five years. What is that? You know 125 millions in unit sales. That's at least Realistic heck you want to you want to even say that it could potentially touch peace P yet PlayStation 2? Fine, okay fine You predict that their market share is gonna grow and they're gonna be able to get up to the PlayStation 2 levels Fine, that's you know even a pretty not safe like thing like saying it's gonna sell a hundred million I feel like is more of a safe analytical prediction, but predicting two hundred three hundred four hundred five seven hundred million my word It's not replacing PCs a Static cannot be upgraded system that isn't purpose built and designed To maximize frame rates in e-sports games maximize MS with peripherals That involve mouse and keyboards several different types of mice and keyboard by the way Some of which might even need drivers to properly run functionally. I'm sorry. It's not going to happen. You are not I repeat not going to be Replacing PCs in the e-sports community there's a reason that PCs are still there because new hardware is available every single year and Sponsors come in and you better believe next year that Nvidia is gonna be sponsoring some of the e-sports tournaments to get their 3,000 series graphics cards in front of that 400 million people watching to convince those 400 million people they didn't need to buy You know a 3,000 series graphics card same with AMD and they're already in a two-stop Same with same with AMD and their processor same with Intel and their processor same with you know MSI and whoever else You know decides to sponsor these events like seriously. I'm sorry But this is one of the most asinine analytical predictions I've ever seen in my life and this guy is paid for a living to make these kind of predictions It's not happening If you're looking to invest in stony and stony stock obviously you need to analyze more things than just Then just their video game division even though it is one of the biggest divisions They have if not the biggest movies is pretty big for them as well And there's another spider-man movie coming and they do get a cut of that even though Marvel's making it But here's the thing The PlayStation 5 is gonna be a success. It's gonna be a hundred million seller Guaranteed I I'll guarantee that right now It might even outsell the lifetime to date sales of the Nintendo switch when it's all said none Even a switch crosses a hundred million. Maybe PlayStation 5 even outsells that I don't know Maybe PlayStation 5 outsells PlayStation 4. I don't know for any touch in 200 or 300 or 700 million Let's be real e-sports community is gonna stick with PC because it's what's best for the e-sports community I put this way you can run as an example you can run fortnight Extremely well in our next box 1x You can run it extremely well in an Xbox 1x. You're not gonna see professional players like Ninja quitting their PC anytime soon You're just not because it's factually better on PC This is reality There is no reason to go to static hardware versus hardware that can be upgraded per tournament when new stuff becomes available with new sponsors They create additional revenue streams for these places that get sponsored and obviously get This hardware in front of more consumers Sony Could pull it off if they want to invest billions that they don't have So Sony's not going to do that. I'm sorry and this is this is presuming that AMD and Nvidia By the way AMD makes the hardware inside PlayStation 5 So AMD has sponsored some some tournaments in the past some of these e-sports tournaments Do you think AMD that makes the hardware inside the PlayStation 5 is going to be cool with Sony encroaching on their territory Lots of things working against this prediction. So yeah, I'm sorry. This analyst is just Needs to stick with something else that he's more knowledgeable in because I don't think he knows jack squad about the e-sports community How how it works and why this is an asinine prediction. All right, folks I am the tender over jim from the tender prime again PlayStation 5 looks great. I can't wait to get my hands on it I like the UI I talked about that recently I'm excited to play demon souls miles miles more Alice as well on the PlayStation 5 versus that PlayStation 4 version I'm excited. I'm excited for next gen. I can't wait for November to get here but 700 million Yikes, catch you guys in the next video