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New Chance for Aurora Even as Brightness Dims: Solar Storm Forecast 08-09-2018

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Published on Aug 9, 2018

Despite being at solar minimum, Space Weather remains a bit active this week. A small coronal hole is rotating into the Earth-strike zone giving aurora photographers, especially at high latitudes, a good chance for some shots. Also, one of two unnumbered bright regions is rotating out of Earth-view over the next few days so amateur radio propagation is slowly dropping back to poor conditions. However, GPS users continue to enjoy better than normal reception, especially at low latitudes. See details of the coming solar storm, learn why aurora photographers get 3 chances for aurora over the next two weeks, and hear some new information about radiation dose during airline flights while we are in this solar minimum.

Support me and get early access to these forecast videos: http://patreon.com/spaceweatherwoman

For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov

For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.

Solar Imaging and Analysis:
SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest...
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/lat...
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xra...
SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/
Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/stan...
GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch

Solar Wind:
DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/rea...
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace...
NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystem...
NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...

Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goe...
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-r...
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aur...
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/pla...
Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/win...
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/
NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_o...

Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov
SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm
Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com
iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html

Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/


None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.

Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.

Comments • 19

francisco lima
francisco lima3 months agoHighlighted comment
friend Tamitha thanks for this video, and about trevilling in airplanes at theses dangerous altitudes, how could be the probability of gaining the radiation as well? would you say it´s not as much as a crew Menber or is the same actually? thank you.
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Rodolfo Galban
I would like to give a huge thank you Tamitha for your valuable work. Very useful for all of us Ham Radio people and all others whom are concern with the activity of the most beautiful star in our sky. Keep up the great work that is truly appreciated.
Exodus Twelve
I really enjoy your daily updates. And the fact you comment on radio conditions are awesome as a radio op myself. Blessings to you and yours.
factinator33
The sun is dimmer but it's nothing we can see..... the sun used to rise soft and yellow, now it Rise is like a plasma welder!
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Vickie Conte
Thanks Dr skove😊
foxman362
That explains why i'm not getting skip on cb radio on ch6 two days was good conditions on ham radio.I heard alot people on skip last week on cb radio ch6 over in utah.
Jon Mallary
The solar polar fields combined strength is peaking now, per Stanford's SPO. Expect a big quake and or a big volcanic eruption within a week of it maxing out. Stanford's data is unfortunately, biweekly, so it's difficult to nail down but the tropical storms are starting to track northward homogeneously. That's an indicator. There should be a new sunspot umbra structure forming within 24 hours, due to todays heliocentric planetary alignment. Where that will appear,... if one does,... is a toss up. Earth may be a bit too far North of the Solar equator for that CH to bump the kP up, even to 4. We'll see. ✌
Bonnie Crystal
Thank you, Tamitha Skov, for your wonderful Space Weather reports and forecasts! It's great to see the ionizing radiation forecast feature in this spacecast, along with the teaching moment, where you explain how it varies. - Bonnie Crystal
Ken Charleton
Thanks for another great report. 73 NX7b
Michael Rice
Great work Tamitha! Truly appreciate your forecast service as it helps with radio life here at 65 north.
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