 Hi, my name's Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 calm and welcome to this week's applying demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis If you're new to the channel and welcome to you and if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you And I hope you had a great Easter last Week did take last week off from recording videos recording a video anyway And this week I'm back. So I hope you all had a great Easter Anyways, don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow trading colleagues as it helps support the channel So definitely press that like and subscribe button. Anyways, our trading 180 process Is to apply fundamental analysis to establish directional bias and then apply technical analysis Supplying demand strategies to time trade entries risk management and established profit targets So we use the best of both. This isn't one versus the other is not a polarizing debate We use fundamentals and technical analysis to establish the best trades And trade ideas and opportunities. So let's get into the the week ahead and the economic calendar and This week there is a few newsworthy news events, I should say economic news events to be To be aware of I guess so Wednesday, I would say the inflation report a lot of the first quarter data Is coming out now, which is going to be very important Because it sets the tone really for the next few months as to what, you know central bank policy will be so inflation rate for Australia, you've also got the Bank of Japan interest rate decision as well on On Thursday and we'll go into into that as well. You've got GDP growth rate for the first quarter for the US and Yes, so let's see what happens there the actual forecast is actually 1.1 percent which Yes is a bit of a pullback, but it's not drastic if it comes in around that I mean the markets would have been pricing that in any way, so I don't think there'll be any drastic moves when it comes to You know the actual data itself Friday we have is it's gonna be a really busy day for Europe matter of fact GDP growth rate as Well as inflation Yeah, and we've also got personal income personal spending But the GDP growth rate for the for Europe is going to be definitely keenly watched because again That will set the tone for what the central bank is looking to do with monetary policy We're getting to you know that in a bit more detail as we go into the charts and some in-depth fundamental analysis so Getting into now the charts and Accompanying fundamental analysis we start off as we always do on the dollar index to DXY And that is just a measure of dollar strength against major Currencies like the euro the yen and the pound and they're starting off with a fresh blank charts To help you draw your demand or supply zones Depending on which way you want to trade based off of really the fundamentals so There's definitely demand zone there. We do have another demand zone here So we don't necessarily trade the dollar index. We're just looking at in fact. I'm on the wrong Time frame. Sorry about that was on the 12 hour. This is where we are when it comes to demand zone. Yep, so that's Where we are and then let's scroll down a little bit. So we've got one there zoom out a little bit That's where we are, right? so from this perspective The dollar index is just a measure of strength as I've said before and don't we don't necessarily trade the dollar Index we just use this as you know potential confluence to see you know dollar strength And if prices generally come down into a demand zone And then they come down into a nice demand zone or supply zone depending on which way you're buying or selling on One of the crosses then that just adds to some confluence, right? So from that perspective You know, it's looking at the technicals for confluence, but from a fundamental perspective the the Fed Jerome power hardens hawkish pivot towards half a point Fed rate hikes and notes many officials saw Need for one or more half point moves and sites front-end loading of policy tightening to cool the economy so Sweden the first Paragraph or so so Federal Reserve chair Jerome power outlined his most aggressive approach to taming inflation to date potentially endorsing two or more half point half percentage point in interest rate increases while describing the labor market as overheated so In order to combat inflation central banks have to high crates. So inflation in the US is Literally, I think it's something like 8.5 percent or something like that. You've got a CPI so they are very very hawkish in In their stance when it comes to hiking rates So with that being said that generally is positive for a currency And it has been we've been saying this for you know over a year now is literally just my bias has been To buy the dollar you can check the facts on all my previous videos for the year If you go to my weekly videos have been saying financial advice, of course, but I've been saying that I mean buying the dollar buying the dollar on pullbacks So we get the direction right we can predict, you know, the long-term trends with fundamentals and And also just looking at the technicals for our entries, right? So For me, I think any pullbacks never like to buy expensive areas Looking for definite pullbacks into you know into zones to look for long trades There will be a you know a situation where the dollar will pull back quite deeply And there's gonna be a lot more profit-taking because it's you know by the rumors all the facts, right? You want to make the money before they start to high crates and then on a day that they high crates I'm not saying that you should sell but most of the money would have been made, right? So really the money's being made way before the event actually happens So any pullbacks I think for the for the dollar into lower into these zones are great confluences to buy On the dollar yen for example dollars Swiss if you're looking to buy those currencies Now looking at the dollar yen if just keeps making higher highs, right? higher highs Where are we? Where's my? Tool here we go, right? Just been literally it's probably moved what a thousand over a thousand pips since since March All right, we can see that Something like maybe 12 13 percent since the beginning of March. It's moved. Yeah about 1476 Pips I guess you can call it pips supporting percentage terms is moved 12 about 12 percent, which is a massive move and On our fundamental analysis spreadsheet. We've got the dollar yen as a strength divergence of seven Which is the biggest divergence you can get one representing typical strength and eight representing typical weakness although that is not always the case but on our spreadsheet we've had that reading for a long time now and Pretty much just understanding at the base currency, which is the dollar being ranked number one is the is typically the one to buy although There are times where you can look for to actually sell number one because not all currencies are strong at all times but But yeah, it's been one versus eight for a while Based off of you know the data that we use to determine currency strength and looking at the Bank of Japan For this week the Bank of Japan expected to hold firm even as economist flag 130 yen level so some 45% of analysts now see some policy action by year-end and around 84% see inflation hitting 2% at some point this year And the Bank of Japan is widely expected to stand back next week So said not not making any major decisions And hold next week even a speculation grows that it might adjust policy before the end of the year to account for the Weakening yen with economists flagging the 130 mark against the dollar as a key level. So The the the Bank of Japan Unfortunately 130 is just just above where we are now The yen has been weakening which is always desired by a central bank in in certain environments But it's devalued, you know too quickly which has become a bit of a problem for the Bank of Japan so there is a There are rumors that the Bank of Japan could start to intervene in and around this area as far as you know policy and central bank currency Seventions to try to stop the the yen depreciating as fast as it has which could support a Potential short trade although I'm personally I am long on this currency pair So looking for a pullback the next pullback is you know about 800 pips away, which is crazy But it could obviously price could Create demand right so to create demand you put it going to see some sort of pullback and then a move higher where you've got proof of value The price proves that it's you know It's a bargain at certain areas and then wait for a pullback into that area there. So That's really the best Play that I would say at the moment got be a bit patient trying to enter on this in the way that I trade Not looking to you know force any type of trades. Just follow the process So waiting for a bit of a pullback, which I think is probably due at some point and then Once prices pull back and prove where there is some sort of demand and value Then I will look for buying opportunities if you do want to get short on the Dollar and again prices have improved that there is supply Strong supply here again price would have to you know come down really for and create a supply zone As I said in previous weeks videos a lot of traders probably would have been trying to get short Somewhere around here thinking that you know this whole historical level was going to be a zone where Do you know to potentially get short and as I've said many times before? You know a level in 2015. What has that got to do with? You know where we are Potentially right now in the fundamentals because fundamentals is what drives price and not the other way around so You know, we we all knew if you understand fundamental analysis that the yen was weak so the path of these resistance would have been to the upside and Pretty much what's happened a whole load of traders who were looking at Potentially short in that based off the technical levels of literally just had there, you know stops run so Safest thing to do is to just look for again the path of these resistance divergences and See what happens there and see how it plays out. So that's really where we are with the dollar yen dollar Swiss Again if you watch my videos a couple weeks ago, I've been long on this Currency along bias just didn't get an entry down here Unfortunately, I was waiting for that and waiting for some pullbacks, which unfortunately did not happen Why when you get a strong trend? Unfortunately, you can't get into every single major trend or pullback depending on obviously your strategy But as long as we get the direction correct, which is basically what I do on a consistent basis So over the medium to long-term anyway short-term nobody knows, right? It's random prices more random and driven by Liquidity, but I do think that this area here now has become a decent area to look for potential buy Although it is, you know airing on the side of the expensive But if you are you know really in a hurry to get into this Trade and you really are you know wanting to get into that but dollar by Swiss trade than that zone in around this nine 0.95 to 0.9 for six area is decent for a long trade So then it's just a case of going down into you know lower time frames and seeing what the Any supportive evidence but Yeah, that's where where I am if you are looking to short the the Dollar Swiss. I can't see really any Key, I mean they're always going to be supply zones, right? It's gonna be a supply zone here, but again the question becomes why they're right? Why would you want to? Short there. Yes, there is a supply zone, but you know what drove prices down in 2020 what made the dollar weaker than the Swiss Frank is it gonna be the same thing that's gonna make the dollar You know we could hit You know I get it there's probably some sort of profit-taking etc But for me, it's just really waiting for pullbacks into into these types of zones But if you are looking at short trades, then you know be my guest, right? The dollar cat dollar cat again, I'm not not really a pair that I'm interested in trading There was pullback into that demand zone right there if you were looking to buy the dollar Looking to sell the dollar. Then you've got an area right above you supply. That looks quite decent for a Cell trade or does it? I think probably that the highest zone that level has been touched several times although is it is an area here I think for me if I was looking to if I was looking to trade this it'd be somewhere up at the highs probably just above the highs But if you are thinking that the Canadian dollar is a bargain and you want to get short on here Then that's gonna be your entry if you're looking at long trades. In fact, we do have Demand I think the months probably gonna cover this wide zone here And if generally typically if you do get a really wide zone of demand like this The best thing to do one of the things you can do is just break down Breakdown the level so just find areas of support and resistance horizontal Support and resistance within the area and then even go on the daily and then go down into the Intra days like maybe the four hour for example and just see you know a bit more detail where there's a bit more accuracy So you can see all right then well within that demands and we've got intraday support and then just look for Trades in the round those zones. So, you know, don't need to get flustered. No need to think that you know Demand doesn't work because it's proven right. It's proven that there is definitely Demand in and around these zones, right? It's because it doesn't look the way that you think it should look and it's not pretty and etc Doesn't mean that this doesn't represent an area of demand, right? It definitely is the strongest areas of demand generally Should be at the lows of the move, right? But again, nobody knows where exactly prices may turn around on a pullback So it could turn around here here, you know, or somewhere down at these lows But the point is is that even within those areas there are structures to potentially look to buy If you are a buyer, of course of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. So that's your choices But for me not really a pair that I'm interested in you've got two central banks competing and hiking rates similar to the New Zealand dollar US dollar Right now you've got Draw demands from here and you've got another demand zone here and you've got some areas of supply one there and Just want to buff our draw those two And that is supply Changed that to supply Again fundamentally two strong currencies Give it to the US the US is you know ahead of the the New Zealand not buy much But yeah, I think you are looking to buy the New Zealand dollar I think probably the best area would be to look to buy probably at these lows these 0.65 area lows for a potential buy If you're looking for a sell trade Up at these areas here if you're understanding that the the dollar is the the stronger out of two again You've got two central banks that are hiking rates So for me not really a pair that I'm interested in trading Looking at the pound dollar and the pound dollar is something that actually I am interested in trading I've been saying again that you know the path of these resistance is to the downside If you check the the records in my previous weeks been saying at the pound dollar to the downside and you can see what's been happening and Really the one of the reasons or the main reason in fact for that is that I believe that the Bank of Japan Bank of England And the UK economy is going into stagflation the the UK economy is is Not doing you know so well So the pound hits the lowest since lockdown on signs UK recovery slows right so three reports indicate cost of living crisis It's hitting growth and pound drops to lowest since the COVID lockdown in November 2020 to the pound hit the lowest Since November 2020 when the UK was in a coronavirus lockdown as freeze a separate reports Suggested economic recovery is faltering the S&P global PMI for both Services in the whole economy fell into a free month low in April while consumer confidence sank to its lowest since the recession of 2008 and Retail sales fell more sharply than expected in March. So all that all those data points kind of point to slowing GDP Which I know when you have rising Inflation and slowing GDP that is what's known as stagflation. So As I've been saying for a few about a month or two now that I Was looking for you know shorts on the pound that changed my mind on buying the pound In fact, I think putting all this area here So I've got a wide zone of of supply and again, unfortunately, it doesn't look pretty But that's just the way it is. You can either draw, you know, go to those zones You can even drop loads of zones like that Or you can just draw it as one zone Like that and then you'd have probably one around here, right? But what's the point in doing that just have the most all in one zone So with that being said again wearing that zone would you look to you know look for Sell trades again, you'd probably look for anywhere where you've got one of the ways you can do it horizontal support and resistance both from a A Hire time frame perspective or an intraday. I do like this 130 though I think that 130 zone just below that is very nice for a potential Sell trade this now becomes decent as well Just the underside of that zones of prices do come back Yeah, and then that is decent as well I do like that It's pretty with the 130 is a pretty gonna be the first area to look for potential sell trades And again, it's a different contrast right to what you're seeing from from the Reports out of the UK and reports out of the the US So for me the bias is to the downside if you are looking to buy the pound for whatever reason Then there are reasons to buy the pound the Bank of England are still looking to high crates But I don't know whether again a demand zone back in 2020 is going to You know be sufficient technically obviously it's there You know that there was definitely demand at that point in time, but But is that gonna be enough as to determine whether this is a bargain for the pound So me personally just looking for Pullbacks into, you know supply zones to continue to short the pound If I can get an entry Moving on to the euro dollar and the euro dollar Again prices have been going down as we predicted by the fundamentals And again the Europe though is is is similar I think to the To the UK, but I think they're probably a bit more worse off and the really the reason is is because although they are jaw-boning on what is known as moral squasion in the The euro they want and a more expensive euro to kind of stop the depreciation or devaluation of the euro which obviously Produces inflation and right and causes rising inflation They are looking to high crates, but again just like the UK The the economy isn't doing well right and especially because geographically where they are in relation to the Russia Ukraine conflict But it doesn't stop the the central bankers from trying to convince the market that they are looking to high crates and appreciate the euro So the ECB rate at zero or more by Year-end and no brainer which says so war would have to cause very big shock to change policy path Belgian officials says he's ready to consider July rate hike And so the European central bank could lift policy rates above zero before the end of the year Unless the euro zone economy suffers a severe shock And it might even have to deploy restrictive policy to get surging prices under control governing council member Pierre Winch said says And again, so the rumors have started that the you know that the euro might start start to high crates and What the central bank is actually attempting to do again is try to convince the market to that the euro dollar should really go higher in a Euro should appreciate in value, but Understanding, you know the the economics behind it. I think this is just all talk and And So again for me path of these resistance is still to the downside Doesn't mean that prices can't go higher in the short term But if it does prices, you know do go higher then for me, it's you know more Short trade short trading opportunities in and around that zone there with prices, you know go through that supply zone And the market doesn't think that the the dollar is a bargain down here Then this will going to be the next zone for me to look for any short trades But again for me, it's good. It's you know, it's still to the short side So but if you are looking at long trades, you are looking at long trades There is a little bit of a zone here not a strong zone, of course, but you can draw that But you know, it's not something there's definitely demand there But not a strong area of of daily demand anyway that I would look to trade But where we are and now could be a decent buying opportunity, especially as again, we get closer to Friday which is going to be really kind of the the major trading day for the euro and if if the GDP and inflation comes out as expected then that could be a Well better than expected, I should say and that that could be obviously a A buying opportunity for the euro so next on the the list is Going to be Aussie dollar all right Aussie dollar again, not really a currency I'm looking to trade but the the dollar US dollar is ahead of the The Australian dollar monetary policy wise You've had a nice run-up over the past a few you know weeks and months but as the Federal reserve now start to Hike up their rhetoric on the hiking rates seeing pretty much You know a bit of a pullback which was due again If you want to be a buyer your Australian dollar now is actually a decent time If you think the Australian dollar is cheap against the US dollar I think the US dollar is is you know, it's still the one to look to buy then you're looking for a Sell trade on the retracement back up into these 74 73 76 areas but again nothing really much to say about the Australian dollar US dollar Aussie yen Again waiting for a pullback on this. I think this area down here the 91 round number should be decent for a potential buy. You've also got smaller demand zones in and around that area, but I do think that this This currency pair there is you're due for a massive pullback right you can't have that move All the way up about having at least a deeper pullback And I do think that the 91 area is going to be a decent for a for a potential buy And if not then again either one of two things are going to happen prices will try to hit this or Prices will create a demand zone somewhere Within this between 91 and 86 area and then a pullback into that zone is where you want to be a buyer if you're looking to buy the Australian Dollar for the Japanese yen if you're trying to buy maybe there are the fact that they might intervene and want to Stop prices going any higher then this is going to be a decent zone for a for a short trade If you're looking to buy the yen But again up for me, I think the path of these businesses is still to the upside But let's see what happens and finally gold and gold has pulled back a bit So anyone who's missed out on this on this gold trade to the upside Now has an opportunity to look for some buys There are some demand zones in and around here I do think the fresher areas of demand are our best I do think that's this decent here to be fair for a potential long trade buying the buying gold really based off of obviously risk sentiment You know inflation worries if inflation doesn't come down then again, I think gold is definitely a buy it's a buy anyway, I think it's more of a buy than it is a sell Even though, you know the dollar the US dollar is You know the stronger is one of the strongest currencies because golden and the dollar tend to work inversely But I think I think there is going to be In the near future within the next maybe a few months or so where the dollar may start to pull back And and weaken a lot of banks have predicted it in that maybe the third quarter So this could be a nice buy an opportunity on pull backs down into any of these zones For a decent buying again, if you're looking at gold and thinking we're where to buy where to sell Against not financial device really you want to look for probably fresher areas of demand So I think in fact I would bargain would be somewhere around the 1880s I think that would be quite nice and even better would be the 1860s for a decent buy But of course nobody knows where the turning point is exactly. So it's just a case of understanding You know if you want to buy here, that's fine You know, I mean if you if your biases to the upside if you've got a valid setup then see where it takes you, right? but I Think the better zones are you know further down cheaper zones anyways for gold anyways guys That's it for this week again. Don't forget to like subscribe and share again with your with your fellow trading colleagues and Yeah, I'll see you guys in the next video. Take care. Have a great trading week