 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It has been far too long since we have gotten to discuss Basketball talk some hockey and what better time than with baseball having just a six game slay for today Then to bring back Tom a vacuum to break down his favorites NBA and NHL bets for today I'll talk some NASCAR Bristol dirt later on It is a fun day with a 14 came slaying the NHL as well to talk about some other sports This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Tom a Vecchio check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom or to break down NBA and NHL betting with Tom Tom chaotic time of year for you with baseball going to do baseball stuff to NBA NHL playoffs on the Horizons, so how you doing today? I'm doing good. Yeah, it's a super busy time overlap season of three different sports as we also seen the fall Really interesting final few days of the NBA season with the Western Conference completely wide open and like, you know Seven teams fighting for a handful of spots, but I'm ready to go Ready to go ready to break it all down We will be talking about the NBA first and we'll talk about NHL for that and that transitioning to NASCAR at the end But before we do that though a quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast because this podcast does go up every weekday breaking down MLB We have some UFC tomorrow tomorrow with Austin Swain I'll talk baseball then as well with more games on the slate. We got PGA each week again We've got NFL draft stuff coming up all right here in the same feeds If you want to get the best odds as a as we're recording this as it goes up Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts now Tom just a couple of games left in the NBA regular season and I Know is like from a DFS perspective that makes me nervous Give me the heave jeebies because I get worried that things will be less predictable Does that impact your willingness to bet like do you lower the amount you bet at this time of year versus not maybe not your unit size but like the number of bets you have on a given night or Do you feel good about your ability to read a situation? Well, I think it's a combination of both and You know you asked this question yesterday To us like you know, what are the listed teams that you know given yesterday's slaves I'm what are the list of teams that have motivation of play and you know at this point in the season That's what I'm looking at every night of what kind of combinations of games Do we have where it's both teams that have you know clear motivation of play? It's maybe it's one word to know or you know It's neither team that have motivation and that impacts a whole lot and we have pretty good examples of all three options on tonight's slate So when we have teams that have clear motivation of play, it's like, okay As I've said before on this it's like, okay This is not the time for teams to be messing with the rotations Which means we should see very consistent production. We should see very I would say high Highly accurate projections of those players have already seen from their stat lines And then on the opposite end like if you are uncertain about things as we could be with the nuggets and the Suns tonight This is where you could potentially side with some unders or simply stay away. I Think staying away is always a good option personally. I'd rather make no bet than a bad bet So that's the reason I asked the question is like, you know, I tend to be a bit more conservative in this regard where I am if I don't have a good read on it I'm okay just sitting out right but it sounds like you kind of will go that way as well It just kind of like judging a case by case if you don't like something you'll just sit out and go elsewhere That's the nice thing about this overlap season. Do you have NHL? You've got MLB you can turn to too Is that dynamic in play for NHL as well? Or is it mostly prevalent prevalent in the NBA? It's I would say it's even more so in the NHL just because the It's absolutely different when the teams pick up two points or one point like that is a huge determining factor And instead of just wins So in the NHL, I'm I am very heavy on teams that are in the mix lately We're like me to secure can clinch a spot You know, they have a game in hand and they're you know They're one point ahead and they have a game of hand like this is a huge game for them those types of things So that's where I'm looking a lot in the NHL these past few days Yes, the motivation matters a lot for both so make sure you're counting for that both with the bets you make But also the bets you decide whether you want to make in actuality Let's begin things off with the NBA here and talk about a couple of national TV games for tonight We have got the heat and the 76ers the nuggets and the Suns you mentioned the nuggets and Suns being one where Might not have the best to read So when you look at those two games Tom anything you like in those or are they stayaways for you? So I'll use the nuggets and the Suns as an example and then I do have one pick for the heat in the 76ers So last night the Memphis Grizzlies lost Which means the Denver Nuggets have clinched the number one. It went to OT and they got blown out I had plus five. It was sick. Love it so the nuggets are a hundred percent locked into the number one seed and Nicole Yolkich played in the Nuggets most recent game, but he missed at Thing was three games prior to that and also Jamal Murray's list has questionable tonight. So there is literally Zero reason for the Nuggets to play any of their starters tonight. They have zero motivation Now the Suns technically have a little bit of motivation But even with that said if the Nuggets are gonna be rolling out there an entire B team Does this have me leaning on Durant unders Devin Booker unders just because They're not gonna have to play into the fourth quarter Why would you push Durant who's already dealt with multiple injuries this year? He doesn't need to play 38 minutes. He could play 23. They just kind of stay in the rhythm of things So we get to this point where we have one team that has some motivation if things fall their way But then the other team has your motivation ultimately It's probably just unders or stay away completely because there's no reason to be going to a bad or bet you're uncertain about Yeah, are you feeling yourself staying away from this one or are the unders you want to target? It sounds like it's probably just to stay away, but are there unders you you like here or no? Well, you know, I would wait for the player props to be posted because we're waiting on the point So I would if the lines I Booker and Durant have both been awesome as of late and they both been very effective So I think their lines are slightly inflated. So if we saw Booker's line at 33 or 34 and a half points I would take the under if that and if it's not there if it's at 30 30 points or 29. I would just simply stay away. Okay, so check those once they're up They might be pretty delayed just based on the way this game breaks down But West Coast right West Coast as well So once we get gate or get numbers up for that as far as the player props Come you check into those for some unders on the bigger players other game As mentioned is the heat and the 76ers right now this spread is three and a half in favor of the 76ers What's your read on this one Tom? So this one is we know that the Miami Heat have full motivation to play They are locked it. They will they're not locked in they're right now currently in the seventh seed So in the NBA seven eight nine ten play in the playing tournament Which is survive in advance and then you're actually into the playoffs Right now they are two games behind the Brooklyn Nets for the sixth seed and it's a Chance that the heat if they went out and the Nets lose whatever it is They can move up to the 60 and obviously that's a much easier path being locked in so the heat full motivation to play tonight at play and win the 76ers they have very very slight motivation So again a little bit hesitant on that So I'm leaning towards the heat and I'm leaning towards Jimmy Butler over 35 and a half points rebounds This is combined. It's sitting up minus 120 He is going up against his former team, which is great to have nice little revenge But Jimmy Butler more importantly is a player that can get it done in multiple areas And is a player that can consistently push towards a triple double given the fact that it can be so effective and efficient When he's on the court with the peripheral stack categories outside of pure scoring and again with the heat having full motivation he's going to be out there for his 35 38 some odd minutes and Ultimately if we do see him beat sit, which I do not think is out of the realm of possibility He's currently not listed as questionable or anything. He's not on the injury board but it's Not out of the realm of possibility that he does sit tonight given the fact where the 76ers are in the standings That would make things much easier for the heat and thus putting Butler in a great spot So right now as you mentioned the PR a bet for Butler over 35 and a half is minus 120 The spread is three and a half. You said they were both leans. Does that mean is there something that could get you to bite on those? Okay, the one you're good with over 35 and a half minus 120 yes I would lean with the 76ers I'm assuming I would lean with the heat because of their motivation factor and the 76ers are lower on like the totem pole of Motivation, right? Okay, so keep an eye on that spread there. Maybe there's some value in a raw But the Butler points plus rebounds plus assist market over 35 and a half minus 120 is one that Tom does like Couple other games across the NBA for tonight's home when you look at those as we have spots Maybe there is some high motivation or more clear situations. Which bets are you liking now there? the Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz the Thunder are Holding down the 10th seed right now. Technically the Jazz are still alive in the 12th seed They're not yet eliminated But it's obviously a much difficult path for them to you know jump into the play-in The okc Thunder do are holding down a play-in spot right now They have full motivation to play this game has a slate high 238 over under Both teams are in the top 10 of the league when it comes to offensive pace Both teams aren't particularly good on defense, which means what we're gonna see a lot of points We're see a lot of scoring on a back-and-forth action and ultimately I like Josh Giddy over six and a half assists That's setting up even money plus 100 He's the you know kind of second You know second player in usage behind she goes Alexander for okc You know consistent player dishing the ball out and just given this game environment the back-and-forth nature There's gonna be a lot of shot attempts and that really does put Giddy in a great spot to rack up these assists as it You know as you can see a plus 100. It's not a massive Number, but it's obviously very very in line and correlates with the game market with a team that has full motivation to play Yeah, again that number six and a half is even money on Josh Giddy for the assists in this one That's for the thunder at the jazz anything else you like for a Thursday night in the NBA, Tom No, it's you know, we have a matchup of Portland and San Antonio two teams that are completely out of it Not really wanting to go there in terms of That the Cavaliers are locked into the foreseed and they have decided to sit all of their starters They have literally all five of their starters including, you know a couple of bench players just fully sitting out, right? So I'm not going to you know going with them from a fantasy perspective is a completely different story But sure betting not on board with thought with those two games the luxury of that Tom is we have 14 games in the NHL So let's shift over there now and talk about the NHL for tonight again 14 game slate That is bananas when you look at those 14 games. Let's start with the traditional markets What are your favorite bets for Thursday at Fandall Sportsbook? One would be the Buffalo Sabres money line minus 118 at the Detroit Red Wings Solid spot for Buffalo. They're technically alive in the Eastern Conference playoff pick of the wild card picture It's obviously slim chance more importantly Detroit has been playing. I would say above their level the past few games The Sabres probably should have their new gold tender Devin Levy in net He was recent. He's only played two NHL games finished his season out at Northeastern They signed him to his contract. He was hardly one of the best goaltenders in the NCAA this year He is now one-on-one in his NHL. They are NHL first two games Again Detroit's not a good team. They've been playing above their head and the Sabres are a better team It's nearly even money for a team that does have motivation to play and when granted It's a very slim chance that they do make the playoffs, but still motivation is there Slim chance is still a chance and for the playoffs. That's the highest motivation you can have So even if it is a slim chance like there was an NFL team in the Packers You know, they had a slim chance basically the entire stretch run last year and until I mean the final game That motivation was there and I'm okay taking shots on a chance to make the playoffs because teams are going to treat that as They have full motivation. So to me personally, I think that works as being full motivation there So that's the Sabres money line against the rest minus 118 the straight-up money line there What else is seeing the traditional markets up? the Hurricanes visiting the Predators under five and a half at minus 104 These are two very good defensive teams With the the Keynes and the Preds two very good defensive teams more importantly They have been horrible in offense as of late and this is not something I've probably ever said about Carolina Over the past few years Carolina has been awesome on offense constantly pushing the pace in terms of shot attempts You know Corsi for all these things I always like to talk about But over the past month both of these teams are in the bottom four of the league for the fewest goals scored per 60 minutes in five Be five situations zero offense from them And for the Predators, it's largely due to injuries where they're missing their best defender They're missing, you know, two of their top forwards You know, I talked about the Predators right around when I was here for the deadline where they traded way a bunch of players And they have players, you know on their roster that I've never heard of which is kind of crazy to talk about Not to mention the fact that they still have UC Saros and it who's one of the best goal tenders in the league So they have this consistent defense. They just can't score and then for the Keynes They've always had consistent defense They've also kind of been hit with injuries where one of their best goal scorers are arguably their best goal scorer Andres Feshenkoff is out for the year with an ACL injury, you know, three four weeks ago not surprised to see their offense decline and The Hurricanes still need to secure their number one seed in the division to give them home ice because The Devils are very close behind them and the Devils have a very soft matchup at home tonight versus the Blue Jackets So it's the kind of situation where the Keynes should be winning this game just because the Preds are not a good team. Yeah, and They're probably gonna be able to shut them down on defense Yeah, so that under five and a half goals is minus 104 the money line for the Hurricanes minus 176 That is, you know, not nothing especially in a low scoring game So I understand why you're looking more towards the total here under five and a half and minus 104 for that one What about player props in the NHL Tom? What do you see in there for tonight? Well, speaking of the Devils as I said, they have a very soft matchup going to their best player Jack Hughes over one and a half points It's sitting up plus 102 his goal prop as you will see if you you click on goal prop quickly for Jack Hughes, so I like his points his goal prop is minus 125 Which is a as you can tell that implies what a he's very good and be the matchup is awesome Yeah Over the past month the Blue Jackets they're having 5.02 goals against per 60 minutes in 5v5 situations that last in the league They're arguably the worst team in the league and they're you know racing towards the bottom to get this top prospect kind of a Dard and as I said the Devils they still have motivation because they can a catch the Hurricanes and Be this also need to secure the number two seeds so the Rangers can't catch them behind them So the Devils have motivation on both sides to try and take the number one seed But also not trying to get caught awesome matchup and you know frankly Hughes has been slightly Underproducing at least from my expectation over the past few games and he's too good of a player to not have You know a good finish to the season especially with some these soft matchups coming up And I will say the Devils also need to be very cognizant of the Rangers because the Rangers have a winnable matchup tonight Against St. Louis and then the Rangers play at the Blue Jackets another winnable matchup on Saturday So that's that could be four points for the Rangers who are right behind the Devils, right? So this is all about motivation for a number of different teams So Hughes is clearly one of the focal points for the Devils Do we see ice time increase for focal points like that when motivation is as high as it is for New Jersey tonight? Absolutely, and one of the things you'll hear is if you're listening to NHL games watching NHL games You'll hear you know the announcers say oh their top line is gonna be double shifted, okay to end the You know from the final 12 minutes of the third period wherever it is where instead of rolling four lines deep you know and just going through the You know the rotation of the if I'm getting out there They'll go like one two three back to one. Yeah, and you're gonna take that extra shift They're gonna get an extra, you know minute of ice time here there which does add up, right? So that helps Hughes to especially if it's points just total points as opposed to goals Hughes over one and a half points is plus 102 as Tom mentioned the goals were prop minus 125 for Hughes But this is a way to get a little bit extra on that over for Hughes. What other player props stand out to you across Thursday night So tonight slate is really interesting because we're dealing with a variety of different Teams that have varying levels of motivation. Yeah where Two teams that have nothing to play for two teams that have time to play for One of my favorite props is going to be Miko Ranton in for the Colorado Avalanche and It's it's a tough spot because he's at 49 goals this year. I think he can get to 50 This is obviously an extremely easy match up for him to do so. I obviously don't like the goal props I think I'm minus 120. Yeah same thing with Hughes. So it's gonna be the same thing I'm gonna go to him over one and a half points, which is sitting at plus 100 So that's in the Avalanche versus sharks game, right and total points for him. It's a little bit higher up. Oops I scroll past it Miko Ranton in There we go same situation the abs another team locked into an extremely tight battle in the central They could very easily win that division They are going against the sharks who they beat two nights ago also in st. Louis no travel for them So they were good to go and I think Ranton in is always a threat to put by hatrick as he's sitting on 49 goals Which is the top five of the league. I expect him to get to 50 Very easy match against the sharks who opted not to play defense this year It's all good for the avalanche another team with high priority to play and win And the avalanche has been a very good team to you recently So Miko Ranton and over one and a half points is even money at fan dual sports book So the two player props here Ranton and over one and a half points even money and jack hughes over one and a half points plus one or two Canes predators under five and a half minus 104 in the savers money line at minus 118 Any final thoughts for you tom before we close up shop on your end for today? Yeah, my final thought is that We're gonna see multiple home runs from the rock. He's going up against. You'll sign a gray from the nationals today Ryan McMahon plus 450. I know the weather is not full course for today. Um I'm not sure what island sports book if I can remember second typically socks. Um, no fitted them people who've worked there. You're cool, but Usually I can't get better numbers there than other where and I can't on McMahon So I know the weather stinks, but plus 450 for a dinger. I think I I took a couple guys Who are the lowest on the rockies? like I took jerks and pro far, but that's because I am a sucker for pro far jerks and go far Um, it's either hammer or has on kin that you're always gonna be betting on No, I the has on kin was a one-time thing. I got lane thomas at plus 850 Against the lefty. I know freelance like You know, okay, not terrible, but pro far seven to one McMahon plus 450 in blackman plus 750 So I assume one of the lowest today About 300 ish who is McMahon? What McMahon's 360 Um, he's not the lowest. I believe crone crones plus 285 Yeah, right now, but multiple home runs is the answer. Um, I did take four separate ones. So I'm clearly Like in my brain whenever I'm betting like longer odd things I I associate it with outrides and nascar where I can only win once. I'm like, okay I got to be more limited, you know, because I can't okay have these bets that can't cash simultaneously, but for home run bets We're good to go, baby. Uh, so So is that a strategy? You obviously have to use to mitigate where you could say if I bet on three at least one of them hits I'll still be profitable. Is that like a no I I I'm very reserved when it comes to outrides. Um, I max at three um, maybe for Daytona, I can swing a fourth just because I have Like months to look at these odds and I get impatient. Um, but Usually I will not go more than three because I hate having bets where I can't cash At the same time makes sense. So it's it's a personal preference I know people do more outrides than I do and that's fine. If you're good at them I know that my strength is more so in top 10 bets But uh, that's the way I play things but for home run bets A lot of Rockies a couple nationals for today too. What could go wrong? In a 50 degree game at Coorsfield Alrighty that is Tom Beckio find his work over at numberfire.com. Check him out for a couple more days I'm a daily ISO on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Tom. I appreciate the time Good luck to you and a massive slate in the NBA and NHL for tonight. Thanks for having me Alrighty find Tom on twitter at dfs underscore Tom and again check out his work over at number fire speaking of NASCAR We'll dive into what I'm seeing for the Bristol dirt race in the truck series and the cup series In just one segment first grand slams no hitters and double plays are back And there is no better place to get in on the MLB action than vandal America's number one sports book That's because right now new customers can step up to the play with a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 Sign up place your first bet and get up to $1,000 back in bonus bets if you don't win So don't miss your chance to get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 when you join today fandall official partner of major league baseball Must be 21 plus in president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposits required refund issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see full terms at fandall.com slash sports book fandall is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with the kansas dark casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to five three three four two in kineticate 188-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1-800 nine win it in wyoming in kansas 1-800 five two two 4700 or in kansas ks gambling help calm Louisiana is 1-800 77770 stop in maryland md gambling help.org in new york 1-8778 open wire text open y And in west virginia go to 1-800 gambler dot net now in ascar forward this week It is the bull throw race If you don't know that it is the one dirt race they have each year in the ascar cup series It is at bristol it'll be run on easter And i'm going to slow play things again this week where i'm not betting any outrides as of right now And it's not because there's a lack of value. I actually show a lot of value on a couple different guys But it's because practice here is super super valuable There are two sessions typically there's just one practice session both these practice sessions are on friday night So two sessions and It's such a different track type than what we typically get So current form matters less here than it does other spots. I still care about current form, but It matters a bit less last year's practice portion of my model Kick the butt of the current form in the track history segments So we're both about to get more valuable info and the info we have isn't as good as usual So I want to take things a bit slower here and allow myself the flexibility to add outrides after practice on friday There are still a couple of bets. I like those are ty gibbs and eric jones Definitions that it's top 10 gibbs is plus 380 right now fandall sportsbook jones 10 to 1 Gibbs is a guy my numbers have been high on all year You've heard that name plenty of times on the show and it's been working out recently He has three straight top 10s. I bet him at top 10 for two of those three I was not on him last week. I had about even it was pretty even with the implied odds there So didn't take him, but he finished top 10 there now for gibbs This is his first time running the bristol dirt racing cup and he's running xinity, but they don't run the dirt race there But gibbs did run dirt in the arca series. He ran. I believe four different dirt races Three in springfield and wanted a coin So he ran four different dirt races at least from what I can find And he was runner-up in the two he ran in 2021 Which was his I think his age that would have been his age 18 season So in his good season in arca, he did run well on those two dirt tracks and I was worth mentioning A runner-up for gibbs that year in arca was worse than his typical result because he won half those races So he was not a plus on dirt. This is not a tie gibbs on dirt type situation But he at least has experience I think that's enough. I have gibbs at 29.8 percent to finish top 10 His implied odds are 20.8 percent. So a decent little gap there I think that's a big enough gap for me to feel good about tie gibbs So tie gives plus 380 decent bet based on my numbers as far as jones goes 10 to 1 I have a more minimal value there He said 10 percent in my model versus 9.1 percent implied But I personally feel pretty good about jones Because there's a lot of uncertainty here where he could practice well He also finished inside the top 10 in the first dirt race at bristol in the cup series Finished in the top 10 one of the stages too. So a good race overall for him there in the truck series jones Actually did sit on the pole for one of his two eldora races eldora the mud summer classic If you are a truck series fan always pretty fun one to watch He did sit on the pole for one of those races He got the pole by winning his heat race where he was racing against bubble Wallace and kyle larson larson Always among the favorites to win on dirt. So a very impressive run there from jones and his heat race led 24 laps in the feature had an issue didn't finish well, but He was pretty fast. He finished fourth in his second eldora race So I just like jones the driver I think 10 to 1 is a lot in what could be a chaotic race, especially for a driver Who has had some success on dirt So I like jones more between the two between him and tie gibbs even though My model shows less value there. So in the cup series, I like tie gibbs plus 380 Eric jones 10 to 1 to finish inside the top 10 In the truck series, I am willing to bet and outright It's because I have a better read on the truck series on dirt because they run more races They've been running dirt for a while that deany back to eldora I'll pass couple years both bristol and noxville. So I feel better about getting a read on The trucks on dirt and the outright I like most for the truck series is william byron 7 to 1 I also value and joey legano at 5 to 1, but the value is bigger on byron I am willing to add legano be fast in practice But I think that I think byron's a better bet as of right now. I think looking at these odds It seems like this race is being modeled as being more chaotic than it typically is The two races at bristol and noxville last year were Somewhat predictable not a super high incident rates. I had togillons another cup driver winning in noxville He won there martin trucks junior in the bristol dirt race back in 2021 Dominated that race So we do see cup drivers run well in these truck series dirt races Byron isn't good equipment. He's an aspire truck He won martinsville from the back of the field an aspire truck last year leganos and a thorsport truck They are Among the best team in the trucks among the best teams in the truck series So i'm a bit confused why their odds are so long I have both them pretty well above their implied odds If you wanted to bet legano at 5 to 1 and byron at 7 to 1 I would not push back on it because legano did win the first cup series race at bristol I will stick with byron at 7 to 1 right now, but You do have leeway To do a bit more If you want as far as top fives go in the truck series, uh, you can find these at william hill I like gran enfinger at plus 275 and parker cligerman at plus 350 Where you can find those both those pretty good values by my numbers But byron at vandal sportsbook my favorite bet at 7 to 1 So to recap nascar at bristol dirt I've got value on ty gibbs plus 380 to finish in the top 10 in the cup series eric jones 10 to 1 top 10 in cup as well got william byron 7 to 1 in the truck series You could add legano 5 to 1 if you want and then also for top fives elsewhere I do like gran enfinger plus 275 and parker cligerman at plus 350 That is all that we have here for today On covering the spread want to give a big thank you once again to tom becky Oh check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom check out the daily iso On the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and find tom's work over at number fire I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We'll talk to you once again tomorrow talking about a big usc sleigh with austin swain I'll talk about some baseball as well should be a fun one We'll talk to all of you then good luck with your bets across today This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network