 Thank you very much land. I Was sort of wondering when you were speaking and you were inviting me up to the floor to do the Sort of thing with the balls. I actually have a dysfunctional shoulder. So that's why I refrained But I was sort of wondering what I was the dysfunctional state It's now time for questions Comments and I'd like to invite people from here, but there are also people who are accompanying this by the webcast Which we will Be asking to comment. I'm going to start in this side and then sort of gradually move over here and What I'm suggesting is that we sort of take three comments three observations and then give land a chance To respond and I will sort of try to at least keep an eye on Who might want to Jump in to the discussion So anyone wants to go first Nobody this side you sure Yes You said that when folk should find their own ways what happens if they have all kind of a kind of kinds of aggressive ways Well, lots of examples, but when you said about Indonesia for example after the Financial crisis in Asia in Indonesia. They had all kinds of problems aggression toward other People for example the ethnic Chinese Please say your name and at least where you come from So my name is Rob Glanders. I just started working in the Alto University And I'll ask this question in the in the kind of juggling and out there metaphor injuries Do you think your apprentice juggler would have juggled better in his first try with an incentive? Hi Andy here from Alto University I Trying to use the knowledge that you just that you spoke about how that we all are aware We've been trying to use this with things like Handwashing and sanitation and hygiene we we know for a fact that We as adults may not know how to wash our hands and we don't want to be told that we don't know how to wash our hands So we tried to focus our education on the children So we showed and taught children with the with the with the adults present So that we could give a little sneaky wink to each other that we taught the children and the children were glad to learn But then we looked at each other and could admit that we didn't know that But it was something that we didn't want to highlight the fact that I know you don't know But we both know that we may not know as much as we should know But if we can find a way to teach the children and be in that vicinity and learn at the same time So use the the negative Situation that you spoke about as a positive opportunity Okay, thank you, man. Do you want to try to address these three? There's the there's a right level of conflict and there's a wrong level of conflict and What mostly people try and do is avoid all conflict, but nearly every successful institution grows out of conflict So if you avoid if you suppress the conflict and external actors can easily suppress conflicts If you suppress all of the conflict you may well be Suppressing precisely the arenas in which people will arrive at solutions that they can then live by and you just Perpetuate problems by having suppressed them and let them go on longer If you look at the history of any now developed country it was full of all kinds of aggression and You know the premature suppression of what looks like aggression in the interest of order Often can you know just let a problem fester and not ever read No one ever then feels like the conflict was settled in a way they can live with so Now that said, you know, am I promoting civil war am I promoting that people be allowed to cut people's heads off? No, of course not, but The the level to which the international community has preferred order even if externally imposed and top-down especially if imposed by a government they like Over allowing people to work problems out in ways that look quite chaotic has probably been on the too much on the Preference for an externally imposed top-down order over letting the processes play out that is going to include You know a certain healthy amount of conflict a certain healthy amount of disputation So behind any successful institution. There is usually that the institution arose to settle a conflict and hence the premature skipping the conflict straight to the institution I I just don't believe it again. We're in an environment in which all lots of things have been tried so, you know You know if a lot of these ideas of Avoiding this aggression by suppressing were to have worked it would have worked better And we wouldn't be in the deteriorating situation I feel that we're in now in lots of places where the aggression is just coming out Having been suppressed in an even more virulent form. So The question about incentives the question is of You know, I Don't like to use the word incentives. I Like to use the word motivation And if you ask me the question whether the incipient juggler had become a better juggler had they been motivated It's kind of obvious that yes, they have to have been motivated Incentives can only be a form of motivation if you can control The states of the world in which the incentives are paid so the nurses program was an attempt to impose incentives on nurses attendance when they didn't have any motivation and What they learned was that if your incentives contradict the motivation the motivation will win And so even though I'm an economist. I am very much more about What's the motivation? What's the account here? Not what's the accounting? Not will I get some dollars and cents if I juggle three more balls than I did yesterday But moreover do I want to juggle? And the difficulty is in a lot of the area in a lot of the arenas the Internal folk culture of wanting to be a juggler. It's what has fundamentally broken down The idea of what it is to be a policeman the idea of what it is to be a postman is Now perfectly compatible with not delivering any mail with not actually enforcing law And I think until you fix that problem incentives can't be a Part of the solution because you can't control the incentives themselves Okay, the thing about children and stuff You know, I I mean Kids are great washing hands is great sanitation is great, but it's not really most people's problem So people you know part of the problem is is that lots of the externally driven ideas about how to make people's lives better Don't count on that. They might just not be concerned about the problem that you want them to be concerned about And that's often just a deep. They just don't care about what you're trying to do and and I think Asking more deeply what is the problem that they are caring about that they're not caring about mine might actually be an Instructive exercise sometimes that said kids are great washing hands is great and Rob Davies from Zimbabwe and I Think it's fantastic, but you said Really really had a lot of meat and could you stand up? It was a great paper and great presentation just just picking a bone with actually your last slide Which has just been taken off where you where you start of saying a solution people don't want I think there's a slip there. It's not people who don't want it And and your presentation of that. It's a solution that Some people involved in governments and some do not want and one of the things which I suspect is in the part you skipped over, you know the addressing of of interests and Which I presume is why it's so difficult to Build something on top of what was there rather than you You've got to take into account those interests that are obstacles Absolutely, okay, we'll come back to that. That's out of Nicaragua. Thank you so much for your brilliant presentation What you are brilliant? Economist and I wonder if you were the president of the USA or Chairman of the World Bank or yeah, okay. I am half one of these very important Organizations with regard to your research. What would you do to improve? this situation With the failing states and all that. Thank you. Thank you very much for a great presentation I was some we had Paul Collier here maybe a year ago, and he seems to share a lot of your Skepticism about how easily we can take an institution from the West and impose it say on Countries in Africa and he seems to be more pessimistic than you are he thinks that African government should outsource privatize the postal service. That's one way to start again I don't know if you would share that that that sentiment one way to get get past the the inertia You seem to be more positive about Being able to reform or set up or revise or start again with within government. Do you have? Any examples of a successful reform has there been a police service that's been reformed or that that you have in hand Okay, thanks. So let I mean let me let me start So I'm not going to disagree directly with Paul Collier But let me disagree directly with Paul Collier. I changed my mind No, because because the difficulty is Countries like Finland countries like Great Britain countries like You know Germany they have a huge amounts of capability that they have acquired through a historical process of struggle That then gets routinized in super high capability organizations So any small fraction of that capability could easily be channeled into outsourced Things that could drop into any country in the world that's small and kind of make a huge difference in the short run But I don't get what the long run vision is is What's the path from where we are to where you want to be that goes that direction? So how do we then get out of those guys or once we're outsourced them? Do they become the new police force? Do they become the new government? To how you know, it's just I don't get what the end game is So I get the impetus to do it because we have a lot of capability and and they You know and Paul I which is why I like to talk about India because for India That's not even an option Right. No Indian government's gonna allow you to pop in with independent service authorities and go around the government So you got to fix the government and I think that's a much more typical situation So I just don't I see it as an extemporizing major As opposed to kind of really a long-term development strategy and Mine has much less chance of immediate success, but I just don't see I've never heard Articulated this happens then this happens then this happens then Kenya does it on their own And until I hear that I'm a little suspicious of getting off onto a path That might lock us into a whole different set of interests. So having Halliburton provide security in Afghanistan Anyway, enough said Go back to this first question. I did slip a lot skip a lot of slides about interests and Partly that's why I call this an incrementally strategic. What do I mean by incrementally strategic? What I mean is let's not take the interests head-on Let's start by creating successes that Cumulate into ways in which we can eventually challenge the interests So, you know part of the issue is how do you put together some pathway towards success? And I don't think the pathway towards success You know the metaphor I often use is the interests are going to defend their interests and if you attack their hardcore economic and Political interests directly head-on You're not going to win Right, so but there are spaces into which you can move successfully and consolidate from there So, you know, I worked with my friend Scott Guggenheim on designing a large-scale bottom-up kind of Program as a way of changing in which local governments budgeted and decided on controlling their own funds And it started as a project expanded expanded to where now it's become the default way in which local governments do their things By building from an incremental base where you weren't yet challenging the powers that be over contracting and then By proving the success it could erode them from below So and by the way, I say solutions They don't want not us of course right lots people that do want these solutions But the they and the they for some reason are always not very good people But the they don't want those solutions not us, of course Finally if I were president of the World Bank, I would do this meaning it's perfectly possible to take your portfolio of projects in the world Go to governments and say look we have to move a billion dollars in your country 800 million we're going to move in the standard ways that we move money will do that right But we want to take some amount of the money. We want to work with you to Nominate, you know get beneath the top Nominate problems on which you're willing to work in innovative ways and then we'll provide you extra support To that policy deviation Right that often is going to provide a large amount of support on a very focalized problem and build that up It's not going to be a hundred percent of the portfolio of large development organizations If it is not going to take 80% of its portfolio and start doing this what they're going to do is they're going to create this space with 10% of the portfolio 15% of the portfolio for the people at different to work with locally motivated partners To build this kind of success But until you break it out of the top, you know Until you break it out of the need to move these large amounts of resources, which is a perfectly legitimate target You have to have multiple instruments for multiple goals And it would be inside any of these organizations if I were in control you could create this in a year Because inside these organizations are people desperate to break out of the existing process controls that prevent them from doing this Thanks, we have more than 300 people watching this all over the world as we saw on Fin's map and Some I've put some questions here. We will be able to answer them all but some of them One Big one is how should the development framework look like after? 2015 talking about the MDGs and how should it be developed? This is from my you a student in Finland the next one is from Philippines What is the difference between strategic bottom-up approach and? Participatory participatory process of development And can you take a third one? Yeah Can you provide a successful example of a positive positive deviation that has applied PDE a How has the organization is structurally allowed for failure? The first question is a great question just way too hard What the post-2015 development program what I know it shouldn't look like though is what we have now Which is a bunch of very con seemingly concrete very sort of externally driven goals You know I work a lot on education You know the education goal that has been part of the MDGs has been mostly irrelevant to more than half the countries And just not that helpful to the other half So it's kind of an externally driven thing that you know people could comply with so how one works into The way in which more local domination of problems more local definition of problems and in particular where you worry about The capability to get things done as opposed to naming what it is you think needs to get done and working backwards Is important to be getting there? I don't know how that would go What's different between what I'm saying and participatory approaches is most participatory approaches in in the current development practice Are actually canalized vertical components of existing top-down projects So if the person understands what that means they'll understand what I'm saying if no one else did it basically Means you know a top-down project says we're going to be participatory so we'll show up and say You know here's the space in which you can be participatory about my project that's already designed Well, yeah, that's a little bit better than not being participator at all But that doesn't actually work into any existing process. It doesn't spill over at the local level It doesn't build capability. It doesn't do any of those things and in fact it can be it can work against true bottom-up because When you have a participatory process as part of a top-down scheme They often subvert the locally the already ongoing local processes so, you know Big top-down projects on education in India built participation from parents into the project But ignored the fact that there were already huge local community and locally elected officials who had as their responsibility You know overseeing the schools so you actually subverted the local government Which was the long-term institutional structure that had its responsibility in the name of participation Which then of course is a complete charade because Who pays the piper calls the tune? The last question was oh Like examples I think only one of the nice things about the experimental approaches that is freeing people up to do experiments so for instance People looked at what was going on with reading in India and decided that lots of kids were being promoted through to higher grades without having learned to read and then Couldn't you know they were given through third grade texts when they couldn't read first grade texts and did you know started with remediation in a very local community way kind of Defined the problem search for solutions got feedback and then finally whole states in India can now scale up This kind of a focus on early grade how to remediate early grade reading deficits by having built this From the bottom up at the same time they were building the political sort of willpower for it were to happen So eventually the agenda sort of leverages itself inside out So I think there are lots. I mean there are lots of examples Moreover if you look at the history of any now developed country It's full of places in which they got from dysfunction dysfunction through policy deviation. So Hi, my name is Esa. I work for a Finnish NGO called KEPA and I wanted to ask you if Facts are fixtures as we saw. How do you feel about the? The boom in development industry on open data open knowledge IAE the World Bank's open data, etc Thanks IMF so the you know, I loved your the idea that experimenting may generate some Some information that would be useful to reform But then I I I have a general feeling that it looks to me that your approach is really Isolated from the context in which the administration operate You know so in if I take the framework that Douglass North Referred to when he he talks about institution he refers to institution as a set of formal rule informal norms and basically an enforcement Mechanism so you seem to speak to the issue of the lack of informal norm and the fact that Formal rule are useless and and therefore you want to create some sort of a culture that would reinforce the Informal norm, but you don't speak to the issue of an enforcement mechanism Because of what problem the enforcement mechanism say a strong judiciary So my point is if the rents you get out the problem then we you know motivation is important But you still need a stick to get to get people to Get the act together and and act in favor of the public good so how does your approach a You know fit with this general Point that you know we do Public administration do not evolve in in isolation from the Informsman's mechanism and informal rule so you speak to the issue of culture building a culture But what about the enforcement mechanism? Darrell sequera About 30 years ago. I worked for Danita in Tanzania and on one occasion the higher-ups from Copenhagen visited the institution and when they were leaving I saw them off and One of the junior staff members privately asked me Why do people from so far away want to help us? Well, I won't tell you what answer I gave him but a few days later. There was a Meeting of all Danita experts in Dar es Salaam where I was invited I posed this question to the very same person that visited the Institute because he was the higher-up from Copenhagen and He said that it's because we know what to do in order to Improve the country in order to raise these people to our level of development as we have in the Nordic countries and in Denmark and that was his answer Okay, now that Raises a question which I would like to ask you you have given several examples of the Incapabilities of so many developing countries and to a large extent I agree with you because I've observed this myself But what I would like to ask you is that is whether? whether the international development institutions Also change facts into fiction That's a very big question because that would would roll on the the ball of Incapability, so that's one question the other question concerns the business the the idea of bottom-up approach Well, I'm glad that you've experienced in India because from my observations over several years the bottoms-up approach in Goa Which is a rather developed state in India doesn't work The Portuguese when the Portuguese colonized goa They found the age-old system of village management or village governance, which is a more than maybe a thousand years old They kept that system and they call it the community dad the British destroyed the system in other parts of India and Put in their puppets to manage the villages But in the Portuguese recognized the the land ownership of Villages and they allowed the community dad to to function for about four or five hundred years Then when India took over goa, they replaced the criminal dogs abuse the community dogs If we have to we count 400 years then we might run a little bit out of time. I do apologize Very quickly very quickly They installed a panchayats in the converted become dozen of panchayats five-member village governance And those are panchayats that proved to be incapable of managing the villages The the idea is grassroots approach. It has failed in goa. Thank you So the problem with this is it's just irrelevant to tell you the truth meaning kind of the the kinds of so So what we keep looking for are you know the distinction in thick accountability? What's the justificatory narrative that we tell about ourselves and others and thin accountability? What are the facts right the problem is you can't fight the deeply corrupted accounts with some additional data Because if the data really matters it can be fabricated right such that you're propagating in you know If we looked at if we put online You know all this information. It's not clear What it would do unless we built it into a way in which people could actually have feedback about it and care about it And could change outcomes so I think a lot of the transparency initiatives so far have been Too focused on in thin account of thin Information and not focused enough on how it was going to feed into actually motivations and decisions of actors So, you know GDP data being available, you know on the web, you know fantastic I'm not gonna make any difference Enforcement is just exactly exactly exactly the wrong way into it just completely the wrong way into it You know Enforcement only works once you've moved your organization to where nearly everyone is It has intrinsic motivation and wants to do the good job Such that you can focus the enforcement on the few that aren't once your system is completely broken a you can't you know Let's say 45% of nurses aren't in attendance How are we gonna punish 45% of nurses and if we single out these nurses to punish for not being in attendance when those aren't That's not horizontally equitable be Precisely what states lack the capability for is to make the decisions of what the enforcement should be the most corrupt Part of many states are the police in the courts. I Mean I can get any decision. I want I can buy out of most courts in most countries Right, so the idea that enforcement mechanisms So enforcement mechanisms depend on your being able to decide what the true state of the world was and punish Someone based on that state of the world, but that's precisely what you don't have in the situations So yes, eventually you need a good enforcement mechanism, but the question is what are you going to do in Pakistan? What are you going to do in Afghanistan? What are you going to do in Kenya where you don't have a good enforcement mechanism starting from a good enforcement mechanism? It's just like it gets the causation and cause and effect just completely completely backwards in my view And and Douglas north's own theory is a theory of failure Right. I mean his story is why everyone fails So why we want to rely on that story for how to do success? Finally lots of bottom-up fails. I mean bottom-up's not a panacea if they're a panacea We would have found it the right kind of bottom-up can succeed So it's not you know No one is going to say every form of local government's going to work better than any form of top-down government And one of the things in the slides I missed is when are the kinds of activities you want bottom-up and what are the kinds of activities for which top-down? Really might work in a professionalized top-down approach probably work And the question is getting to the problems and letting them sort themselves out into which requires which but no there is no Romantic illusion in my mind that if we just let people left to their own devices They'll all work it out. It has to be a very structured kind of bottom-up approach Which is why I'm trying to put structure on how you nominate problems how you provide feedback how you learn how it diffuses Certain of the punch-out expert. I worked for three years on the punch-out Raj in India So I know the punch-out Raj experience pretty well. Yeah, some places it failed some places didn't succeed But mostly it wasn't given a chance by the top-down bureaucracies. So ladies and gentlemen We have a lot of participant on the web I hope that you will apologize that I wasn't capable of enforcing exactly the five o'clock time What could be easier to enforce than time? Would you please join me in thanking Landpetschit for a great lecture. Thank you very much We look forward to announcing Next year's wider annual lecture look out for it on our website The information will be there do follow us Do follow what we try to inject into the development debate Thank you very much for this afternoon