 It is time to finalize our bet slips for the division round by talking about some player props here across this weekend's four games to do So we're bringing back Tom Vecchio of number fire getting his read on this week's games and where we can find value over at Fandals sportsbook. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandals podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom you can find his prop work and other betting recommendations over at number fire.com You can also find him on the daily ISO or I'd be a DFS podcast Tom Divisional round cometh. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. Yeah, this is one of the most exciting weekends in the NFL Season last weekend was awesome. I think this weekend is going to be top going to top it There's plenty to get to there is a lot to get to we're going to talk about Players seeing role changes in the playoffs yardage props touchdown props will talk other props as Tom is one of the The guys more willing to dabble into fun markets. I would say as well We'll talk about all that to get you said for the division around here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering this spread wherever you get your podcast We have our division around full preview up with Ryan Williams that went up on Thursday I had my first look back on Tuesday both those on both the cover in the spread podcast feed and on the fandal YouTube page So subscribe to both those spots depending on how you want to consume at the podcast and while you're there If you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well The NFL playoffs are here and the easiest way to get in on the action is the fandal America's number one sportsbook new customers join today to get started with a $150 in free bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet Fandal has all your favorite bets from the money line to point spreads to player props plus You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay all on an app That saves the cure and super easy to use so football fans. 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Anyway, let's flip the flip the page for to talk about the divisional round and Tom has mentioned in the playoffs we can see things tighten up where We see teams can serve guys during the regular season in a postseason Why bother so when you were looking back at last week and these could have been subtle I think there were some subtle ones out there Which players did you see their roles shift in ways that could make them either under or overvalued in the prop market for this week? Yeah, so this is always an interesting interesting thing. It's like, okay It's just time to play their best players. No more messing around like let's just get to we need to get these guys to ball They we need a win. So and I think this is where we see again some very minor things two of them come from Jacksonville and One of which would be Travis ETN seeing 20 carries and not a single other running back seeing a single carry 20 carries when they were down 27 nothing Like no one's like, okay Why would they give someone else like they obviously had to win that game huge comeback all these things But she's like not even a single other running back saw a single, you know carry out of the back Yeah, so that's I was he was obviously very effective with those 20 carries going for over 100 yards It's prop this week is at 69 and a half rushing yards. I think that's pretty high Right, I just don't see a game environment, especially if they're trailing, but they're right back to be that he's gonna be able to get there So that's one thing I took note of to also a Jacksonville is that they three receivers All with 11 receptions or more, right? Or was there 11 or 11 targets are more excuse me, right targets are more and that's we have to use that in context They were trailing they had to pass but that's still like really really heavy usage for these three players which would be Jones Kirk and Tight end his name is slipping right now Evan Ingram. Yep, right. So Which is obviously we have to take them context there. They had to pass to you. So we have to use that That's those are two notes from Jacksonville from San Fran George Kittle only had two targets Very modest production from him. Obviously, they're moving the ball around a lot Brandon I you this week. I also will say he was really effective last week 73 yards and only three receptions and this week his reception prop is at 55 yards and Debo Samuels is at 56 and That just doesn't seem Like I you seem just like a touch too high to me Yeah, that's just my take on it and partly because I think that they like they tried to get Debo the ball and Frankly, I want a Debo rushing plus receiving is probably five and a half. It's up. I just checked and that's my favorite Yeah, because they're they're trying to get him the ball whether it's traditional passing rounds or it's jet sweeps or rushes or bubble screens Or like whatever it is. They're like they're they're getting him the ball and I don't think I use gonna be that effective on a per catch basis so San Fran and Jacksonville were two teams. I'm like these things are Just a hair off and Jacksonville obviously we need that context with them playing from behind. Yeah with the 49ers pass catchers I Looked for a long time at the Kittle under 46 and a half I couldn't quite get there because it meant that I'm sweating 60 minutes George Kittle not, you know Slitting my throw basically like I don't know. I don't really feel like sweating that but like I'm probably gonna take it I just think that is a bit hot. So you wound up on a you I went up on Kittle I think that the overall takeaway being that they funneled things to McAfrey to Debo and I would not expect that to change like those so guys those two guys to be effective still but They're pretty high those numbers are pretty high given how rush heavy. They could be potentially right now We also get the Eagles and cheese back this week and the Eagles and the cheese our teams We have not seen yet in the postseason, but they've got some interesting guys, you know, they got miles Sanders I've got they've got the backfield for the cheese as well. They've got canaries Tony Talking about role shifts. Are there any guys on those two teams you expect to see role changes this week coming up? That's the that's one of the interesting notes And I think the role change for the Eagles could be dependent on and I want to take on this some of the notes or quotes around Jalen hurts and his shoulder that it's like is it still an issue? Yeah, how much is it bothering him because? when I was talking with Ben Stevens yesterday on series XM we spoke about this and You know one of that's that's one thing It's like obviously they're not gonna be telling the full truth of like regardless is it actually hurting him So is it an impact is it like actually impacting him because if it is it means two things a they're probably not throwing the ball as far Downfield to AJ Brown and to Devonte Smith, which means I think Dallas Goddard is in for a big week And we're gonna see more rushing for miles Sanders So the shoulder health of Jalen hurts will be a role change for two different things less passing for Brown and Smith I think more shorter passes for Goddard, but also more runs for miles Sanders. I Think he's healthy Based on timelines. I've seen of that injury. It seems like he's probably good to go He came back to practice before week 17 season practicing for week 17 18 by week this week four weeks of practice and Five or six weeks since the actual injury occurred I am operating as if he is full hurts The one thing that I would say with regards to their usage that does changes. I'm not sure If Lane Johnson is full Lane Johnson like he's practicing in full But I don't think he's like that's a serious injury. That's probably gonna require surgery after the year So I think that if you were to make any tweaks to the Eagles I would have a slight overall offensive efficiency downgrade With the assumption that Lane Johnson is not a hundred percent Lane Johnson right now Right, and I think that's it's obviously it's it impacts things in multiple ways It's not just a quarterback because if it hurts was fully healthy if their lines not fully healthy Like it hurts never got injured at any point in the season if their line still isn't fully out We still have to take that to account. So that's obviously right for the Chiefs You know, their backfield is a spot that I've never enjoyed looking at from a fantasy perspective From a betting perspective because it's like a who's gonna have the hot hand this week Yeah, who's gonna be catching passes out of the backfield. We don't know so ultimately I like some unders for those players I like Pacheco under rushing attempts specifically just because I do not see Him getting the volume. I don't see anyone particularly getting a whole lot of volume Jared McKinney, maybe in the past game that's doing story But I just have a tough time going to that backfield and saying I love this spot I can't wait to go here for this player. I think the one Spot I look to there is actually also an under but with McKinnon under rushing yards because he doesn't run the ball Very much his rushing yardage prop is 25 and a half right now in Fandall Sportsbook I'm tossing a week 18 week 18 doesn't matter Because they use Ronald Jones there that doesn't matter. So scrub scrubbing that out his rushing totals have been four seven fifty two over 22 under 51 over Zero and then 24 against the Jags. He's gone over it twice in what I would deem or a 20 Sorry, two against Jags. He's gone over it twice and what I would deem to be his most relevant sample the under is minus 114 So I feel like that one is the one I would turn to most in terms of dissecting the backfield I don't think we'll see a big shift in the way they play things. I think we're just gonna see kind of you know siloed with Pacheco getting more the The the rushing work McKinnon getting the occasional third and long carry whatever it may be I think that that one is the one that stands out most to me, right? And as long as we have defined roles for those players I think that's what make that's what can make it easy, right? But when they're all over the place, you know, Andy really likes to be creative and credit to him I mean, it's obviously successful. They're getting players the ball in different circumstances and they're putting up yards and points But it can make it different difficult as long as like it's okay only McKinnon in the passing game that's just like okay rushing under us for him You know, I I think you know rushing attempts because ultimately my feeling is for if this game stays close They're not gonna be running the ball. They're just gonna put it in my home's hands Like they can't I can't be rushing the ball, right? I'd agree with that for sure Okay, let's open up and talk about some yardage props. You see a fan of a sportsbook. Tom We're seeing value in that department One of them would be Dallas Goddard over 51 and a half receiving yards It goes along the lines of what we're gonna be seeing from the Eagles last week that the Giants got torched by TJ Hawkins and 10 and 129 Throughout the course of the entire season the Giants allowed 922 receiving yards specifically to tight ends Which was the 10th worst in the league so if we use a the matchup and then be the the health the Coach speak all these things. It's like, okay line isn't great. Which means he could be under pressure more Is hurts fully healthy? So if he's not fully healthy and the line's not fully healthy They're not gonna be having the time to throw the ball down field Which means Goddard will be able to be successful in the middle of field, which is already an easy matchup Yeah, 51 and a half the number for Goddard there in that game and that's like Not bad 51 and a half minus 114 on the over there Devontae Smith 65 and a half I couldn't touch that right the usage He has had in games with Goddard's hurts and Brown healthy is he's been very efficient Which is good because he's a very good football player, but the use hasn't been there I think it's anything with AJ Brown said he two and a half not for where I'm taking unders But if I were forced taken over, I think that Goddard would be the one guy Whose number I could best justify to myself. Yeah. Yeah, I wouldn't for me It's you know AJ Brown if they do get long passes off that that can be happening into receptions realistically 30 plus yards down honestly one for him, right, right You know, he's on my he's on my main dynasty team and you know, I get the updates from from sleeper Yeah, that's like oh big play to AJ Brown for 30 again. Yeah again So like that could happen in two so I could rationalize go into the over But ultimately I don't think this is my favorite spot for Goddard all things consider. I think it has that has this like Then diagram of like where I realistically see production going combined with the game environment combined with the health It's like all overlapping to Goddard this weekend It is kind of by low on Goddard too because we haven't seen him healthy with Hertz for outside of week 18 He was healthy there. It's healthy there, but like a bit of a different setup We haven't seen him fully healthy in a while And he had a lot of yardage juice when he was healthy earlier on this year Any other yardage processing it out to you? Yeah, two running backs and two unders Devin singletary under 43 and a half rushing yards is E. Keele at under 35 and a half rushing yards and These are just I think very very straightforward Singletary isn't seeing the lion share the work. Cook is getting involved. This game stays close to the high over under It's the same situation as I mentioned with my homes. They're not the bills are not gonna be running the ball They're gonna put the ball in Josh Allen's hands and that's what's gonna happen. They're not gonna be pounding the ball I just I just don't see that happening and then Zeke is a It's an extremely difficult matchup going up against the 49ers allowed the fewest rushing yards to running backs this season B I do not see them playing from ahead where they're gonna be in a spot to run the ball and see he has been So far from effective this year in anything on a touch per touch basis that We're looking like 2.9 yards per attempt or whatever it is last week And he's just not effective and Tony Pollard is ultimately the best running back at the Cowboys half so This could be a regular season matchup for Zeke and He could be you know seeing plenty of usage I still wouldn't like going to him in the over because the match was just so so bad, right and Then he factor in the fact that they gave Pollard his highest snap rate of the year in a game with Zeke active last week Factor in that the 49ers especially effective up the gut, which is where Zeke gets a higher rushing share than he typically gets There are a lot of factors that do align to make I think both Zeke unattractive But also make Pollard pretty attractive going back to the Singletary one though. I was hoping to like Use Fandall sportsbook as like a guide for I should feel about cook and Singletary for daily fantasy Open up the rushing plus receiving prop. They are two yards apart. So not helpful I was hoping the market would allow me to decide where to go with that it didn't so thanks a lot guys I was hoping for a better read from all of you based on that but couldn't quite get there I think that Singletary will probably play a lot of snaps, but that hasn't led to anything for him. So His like yardage per snap number would be absolutely disgusting. Okay, touchdown Betz. What you got there? sticking with Dallas Goddard plus 195 I think just makes a lot of sense again all those things I mentioned with him We expect the Eagles to be scoring You know injury situations I mentioned with the Hurts and his shoulder blah blah blah great matchup against the the Giants who are specifically weak against tight ends I think that's got to be number one for me number two, I think is a long shot and I kind of have talked myself into it over the Okay, and I think it's a bit of a long shot I think the 49ers defense for touchdown is very much on the table this week and You know it comes down to Dak not being consistently safe with the ball and last week sure, you know great performance from him But the Buccaneers defense is not the 49ers defense. We've seen Tremendous things from 49ers defense this year And if they're gonna be playing from ahead the 49ers that is that means the Cowboys are gonna have to pass the ball Which means the league leader in interceptions this year It's gonna be throwing against one of if not the best defense in the league Yeah, so 49ers defense at plus 650. I think is in play this week. Yeah, I like that and with Dax interceptions I Don't mind them personally because a lot of them have been aggression and I wanted Dak to be more aggressive coming into the year So I don't think it's like a bad thing for him But it does lead to more chances for touchdowns on the defense side of the football and they've got like these like Psycho athletes on defense So if they were to even like a fumble recover recovery stuff like that's very in play So plus 650 that's not bad. That's not bad for a prop like that given the You know that Dak is taking risks which can lead to tie-up side events like this Yeah, I don't like I don't really care much about interceptions whether it's from like a fantasy perspective or anything It's just like it just creates more Like variability and like it just changes the game environment Which is actually conducive for fantasy production because then if then they're behind them They have to pass the ball. So I don't really care about interceptions We just have to use that as like, okay It's an event that could happen and how do we capitalize off of that and like one of the outcomes the outcomes are a touch You know touched on return right from 49ers. So whether Dak is Ineffective or not is kind of regardless of this situation. It's just more about okay. He does take risks They are gonna be playing from behind. They do have a very good defense. What does that lead to? Yeah, interesting one thing I did want to ask you about we've been talking a lot about Hertz and His health seems like you're kind of working on the assumption that he's still working his way back His rushing yardage profits 51 and a half That's really high Justifiably given the way he's operated this year You think there is value in the under there or are you trying to get exposure to it via other routes? It could hit even if Hertz is does wind up being healthy. So I like the under specifically and I remember Was it the Thursday night game? They played against the Houston tech the Houston Texans I was actually I wrote about that under and I think it's laundry. Yeah And I think it was largely the same thing. I think it's probably like 39 or something around that game I'd have to double check the article to see but Ultimately and everybody I remember seeing other people, you know talking about his rushing out the Houston They're terrible against the rush at Houston allows all these rushing yards Hertz is in a great spot. He's averaging X amount of yards blah blah blah. Here's the thing though If you look back at the game logs for Hertz Games that he has high rushing totals. He also has high passing attempts, which means what? This means that they're they're in a close game where he has to drop back Thus he can scramble and pick up yards Not that he doesn't have design plays because if they're playing from ahead as they were in the Houston game He doesn't have to drop back So that means he's not under pressure and not like not having chances to scramble where he just naturally picks up yards Right. So if they're playing from ahead, they're just gonna give the ball to Sanders Mm-hmm, and then the times that he does have to drop back They're probably pretty safe passing options because they're leading and they can kind of control things So I think his rushing yards are good in games that have high overrunters and close spreads Not a game where they're expected to be leading what they were like 13-point favorites against Houston or whatever it was And that's just not a game where he needs to drop back 40 times, right? So I actually really do like the under end if we take this little health note in consideration Are they gonna have too many designed running place or where they expose him to getting hit and landed on or whatever it is Right in that that game against the Giants when he came back, you know, they were trying to conserve things But there's only one design rush in that game for him It was nine carries overall for 13 yards, but They were conservative I'm curious if that carries over into this week I don't know but that there are a lot of Correlated ways to play things there if you make the assumption. He's maybe not a hundred percent hurts right now What about other props you see? I know you're a big into like passing a temp process stuff like that So what are you seeing elsewhere a fandal sportsbook this week? So passing props or passing intense props as you mentioned is one of my favorite and I think these are Really really easy to project make a look at game environment. I know game script passing tendencies You know teams play content these all these things. I think these are probably one of the softer markets I mean Brady had was at 60 some odd passing attempts 66 right 64 whatever was yeah, yeah So Josh Allen's passing prop right now is 35 and a half. It's minus 144 on the over So I do not love I love the number at 35 and a half for Josh Allen. I don't love minus 144 I'd prefer if it actually went up to 36 and a half so if it moves between now and and The game time yeah, this is actually a spot if it goes to 36 and a half I still have a ton of interest in because if you look back at this game log for Josh Allen, we're seeing there and the game log at face value Doesn't tell the whole story where the game against Miami a lot of back-and-forth action over 300 yards 39 passing attempts New England game doesn't tell the story game against Chicago also doesn't tell the story and the game against the Jets These recent games to end the season don't tell the story of him Like needing to pass the ball. These are very run heavy games You know different defenses, etc. I think the bangles are exploitable via the passing game We're also expecting very high over under and you're not getting to 50 some odd over under if Josh Allen has 30 passing attempts, right? So I love the prop at 35 and a half don't love minus 144 if you can find it around the industry somewhere else I'd still be willing to go to this 36 and a half minus 114 minus 110 whatever might be yeah I also think we could see that one potentially Shift because there is some potential snow in the forecast and the wind is low I care more about wind than snow, but the market cares a lot about snow If we see that come down Allen's played in adverse conditions a lot and they're willing to throw him in that situation like in the Dolphins game The one that was like super cold I know it didn't snow to the end but like their early down first half pass right was like 90% He wasn't it was close. It was like very high if they'll throw in weird conditions, right? So I'm not yeah, I think wind is a factor. Yeah Precipitation again, not too much. It's extreme. Yeah, unless unless we're talking about a stream But a little bit of wind is not gonna be an issue. So Over Josh Allen passing attempts depending on the number and depending on where you can find the juice I think is The spot there to go Also, if you're following the game scripts, I think Trevor Lawrence passing attempts is also At least interesting I can talk myself into the passing guards at only 250 again If they're playing from behind and they need to push the ball 37 and a half seems a little bit high Right and last week's game again We have to use the context of the fact that they're playing from behind for nearly the entire game that he had to push towards close to 50, but I Can talk myself into the passing yards, maybe not the passing attempts, right? 250 and a half is a number on the passing yards for Trevor Lawrence and the over is minus one fourteen Both ways on that one. The Holmes is three ten point five, which is great. Love that. I Love that team. They're so fun. Actually, I love both these teams. What am I talking about like? Could be behind You can throw on the cheese that I think they're a bit better than maybe perception is but the part of the reason they're better is because Chris Jones is an animal and Sacks don't really care matter as much for a passing yardage number So I think that the the logic is there for sure on Lawrence the two passing props you like Alan if we get that to 36 and a half around minus one fourteen You want the over there and then Lawrence over two fifty and a half passing yards in that game against the cheese Any final thoughts for you Tom before we wrap up here for the division around? No, you know, I would lean towards I would say Chiefs Giants Don't know about the bangles the bills and the 49ers would be my my picks. Okay, at least for you know for covering I think the Eagles win. I think the Giants cover. I think the 49ers win and cover obviously I think we're in for a great weekend. I probably side with the under in All of the games except for bangles bills. It's the one game where I have an under It was a fifty-and-a-half though in my defense and it was also when the wind was higher It was a 14 miles per hour and I took it and it's not so I feel like a dummy and It went down to 48 and a half like after I took it and it's been slowly creeping back up and I'm like Do I regret this rooting against? Josh Allen and Joe Burrow on a Sunday ruining my whole day, but we'll see how things go there That is Tom and Vecchio Tom. I want to thank you once again for swinging by for today Thank you for spreading your knowledge. Good luck to you with NBA NHL for tonight and with NFL this weekend We'll talk to you once again soon. Yep. Thanks for having me. Check out Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Find all of his work at number fire comm and on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a n n e s Good luck to all of you this weekend We'll talk to you all once again next week our first look at the conference championships coming up on Monday This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network