 Hi guys, good morning. Welcome to a new month and a new week. What an incredible one it was, yesterday. We saw some unbelievable moves in the markets. We'll have a quick look over just how we're trading now as, well, if you stayed up till 11pm last night and seen stocks get down over 500 points, you'd be thinking, well, you'd be coming in this morning to see a lot, lot worse. That isn't the case. This morning, the S&P currently up 55 points. The Dow Jones up 530. The DAX 250 as well. So incredible moves this morning, as you were seeing. St. Pames has come off the touch as well. Oil nearly up two bucks. We've just seen over the last few minutes, pound come under pressure. Bank of England have just come out and said they will take all needed steps to protect stability, which has kind of been the theme following Jerome Powell on Friday, but the theme that we've seen from central banks over the weekend as well, which has helped our recovery really from gapping lower. You can see here, if we move over to the map that we'd like to show, the total confirmed cases, deaths and total recovered over the weekend. This number of new cases has increased, obviously in Italy, most notably, cancelling football games, doing masses live on Facebook. The panic and fear is really setting in. And I think that fear is the main thing that gripped markets last week. And I was just reading Anthony's macro menu to post the link into the chat. If you haven't done so already, it really is a fantastic addition on Sunday just to get you in the mood for the week. He was talking about this sort of time last week, but about the three factors that could really trigger the loss of investor confidence. You can see that last one there, the most influential fear. If we switch back over to the charts and just bring in the S&P, I'm just going to put this on last week and you can see such an incredible move. But that really was the fear starting to kick in and the panic in the markets. You were seeing, certainly in the Dow Jones, there was minutes where it was doing 100 points a minute, 500 points every five minutes in opposite directions. The range for the day to day, if we have a look at the low, around 24,850, we're already over a thousand points higher than that and almost about 26,000. So it really is incredible conditions. Volatility absolutely is back in the market. I've got a couple of charts here to focus on from more on the European side, but just to put things into perspective, you've got here even Brexit 2011 debt crisis didn't hurt Europe so much on a weekly basis. You can see here, this is the biggest change percentage wise to the downside since, well, pretty much 2008, the great financial crisis there, which is really incredible. You can see here, European stocks volatility jumps the highest level since the sovereign debt crisis back in 2011. These charts really will be talked about for quite some time. You've seen here, investor panic raises over $1 trillion from the stock 600 and also, to be no surprise here, travel stocks leave the drop among European sectors since the all-time highs that we saw certainly in the Dax, but incredible moves really in the market. It wasn't too long ago, obviously we're talking about Europe there, but even in America, we were all-time highs and now we've seen under 10% lower, that correction, the fastest since the 30s. We just put a currency tool there just to have a look at the percentage we were down at 1.16.4%, now currently just under 13.12.2%. Also, worth having a look, longer term charts and if you've read that macro menu from Manchester, you'd have noted where we had found support on Friday's low. Let me just remove the pivots here and bring in Fibonacci, which people will look at in moves like this when price is correcting itself lower. You can see, sorry this is the down, I was wondering why it wasn't marked up there nicely. You can see here on the S&P, that 50% Fib level. Also, the lows that we had back on October 2019 has provided excellent support. Will this be the low then? Time will tell. One of the reasons we gapped lower initially on the weekend was China posted its weakest factory activity on record. You can see here the manufacturing PMI number coming at 35.7%. It's been consistently pretty much bang on 50 there or above. This is the weakest it's been. Here, just put in on the 10-year chart, make this a column. You can just see, just has little dot, little dot bottom right, put it on the max and you can see just out of nowhere that number appearing. Obviously, the coronavirus effect starting to filter into markets and along with new cases being announced this weekend, it wasn't too surprising to see us gap lower. Jerome Powell on Friday evening basically said we're ready to cut rates whenever if needed and that gave the markets a bit of a boost. Other than this Chinese data, if I was thinking Friday evening, I would actually say, well I reckon there's a potential that we actually gap up on Sunday. We gap down and really the Chinese data, the reason for that. However, we have obviously seen this recovery in early trade. Bank of Japan joined the Fed in issuing a rare statement, assuring that appropriate actions will be taken. It's priced in that the RBA are going to cut interest rates tomorrow. The argument for whether this is going to work as well, you can cut rates but that's not going to stop a virus spreading and that is of course true and it might well be that it's just a momentary halt for stocks. There's certainly some very key levels to keep an eye on to the upside. Any of these previous lows. There was a good tweet I saw this morning but it may have been from yesterday and it's saying nothing changes sentiment like price. If you suddenly get a massive push to the upside, we break above this previous support that obviously would act as resistance from above 30, 68. That longer term trend line comes back into play around probably 31, 20 and suddenly things are forgotten about and we can push on and on and on. Oil you see here might be that meeting in Thursday and Vienna, some comments come out that are positive and suddenly that low around the 2018 low that we saw is also a time where buyers have come back in. We then get back above 50 dollars and well the worst is behind us. Of course it's not that simple and it's going to be a headline driven market. I'd be very very wary of things this week just because we're having a strong start doesn't necessarily mean you know each of the next four days following this are going to be massively positive. So central banks happy to play the whatever it takes kind of card. It's going to be an interesting interesting day. Can this be sustained cash open will be something you know I'd be very much keeping an eye on. For me personally looking to trade I'd rather just wait and see how we pan out. It's always a perhaps a tricky day on the Monday especially when you've had a week of really aggressive selling. You know this is no guarantee that that's going to continue and that can obviously catch quite a lot of people out there. So the main reason for the recovery central banks to the rescue just to summarize the banks of Japan they're you know happy to provide some you know ample liquidity but they're offered to buy five hundred billion yen worth of Japanese government bonds. So yeah that's that helping things there and you can see the article from Kuroda. So we have a quick look over at the Nikai. I'm sorry here's the article I just posted in but just having a look here at the Nikai as well recovering quite strongly. Also what we saw last week which I think the court quite a lot of people of guard was was gold just bringing this picture the chart in you can see Friday a really strong move lower here. Haven't seen a move like that for quite some time the last time we moved in either direction that that much was was back in 2016 Brexit. We are very much contained from the first from Tuesday Wednesday Thursday there was no real move higher or lower. A lot of people are expecting a push to the upside. We obviously we get higher on Monday morning however Friday really was the one that broke the camel's back breaking that support area and pushing lower quite aggressively and this was the same during the financial crisis back in 2008. Gold initially did move lower as investors seek safer safe havens if you like like say T-notes which you can see if I bring this in here had a superb week and pushed quite aggressively to the upside gold struggling a bit. That's not to say gold keeps coming lower and lower and lower if I bring on the financial crisis let's just bring that into picture go back to 2008 you can see initially here this is that push lower through October obviously with the Lehman brothers collapsed and it wasn't really until the back end of last week of October that we started to rally and if you bought there and how until now you'd be very happy of course. So overall it seems like we're just having a bit of a reversal I would be very patient no still today first day of the week no real range come in is the the central bank move actually going to last should they even cut rates I think that's a debate for for now the last coordinated cut from central banks was March 2011 so potentially something there to to keep an eye on as well. So other headlines to to go over I want to keep it relatively brief today as things are moving and it's going to be a very headline driven market but China's stock traders are making big bet on fiscal stimulus so all of these headlines here really going to help to to boost stocks this morning I think it would be more interesting to see how later on pans out how the cash open is going to take this news is there going to be further developments in say the US I mean you know in Europe we've already seen that that spreading today I've got a text message through saying my old school was has been shut down for a couple of weeks so you know we haven't had what China's had yet or certainly Italy has to that extent once this fear picks up again it could well be that these decisions to potentially cut rates might come a bit too soon and if anything maybe they should just save their ammo we're obviously in a pressure situation and we've seen stocks have a very bad week but we're levels that we were just October last year so I think if I was Jerome Powell I would just say that you know it's a bad situation we just need to take time and once the coronavirus does then you know just subside it a bit maybe when the weather starts getting better etc then you know at least we've still got ammo that if data was to continue to be poor we can go from there but yeah central banks you know everywhere the Fed Bank of England the Bank of Japan all out with similar statements over the past 24 hours pledging support to economy in the face of coronavirus epidemic and China's stock traders expecting similar things the Fed if we have a look at the well let's just bring it in here the Fed watch tool for the next meeting on March the 17th we have one second to load that up March 17th and 18th you can see we are once that loads up a hundred percent priced in for a cut there so I mean can you imagine that the the scenario if there were to keep rates on hold I mean stocks will come down very very aggressively on that also on the macro menu you've got the the calendar highlights it's actually quite a busy day today and one where you know you're going to want to be careful of these these points also a lot of speakers Fed speakers this week the the week today you've got obviously the the UK data out in the morning Brexit talks starting up again as if we didn't need any other headlines to take over the market Brexit is back with UK and you going into to talk tomorrow evening or as I said well this evening tomorrow morning you've got the RBA rate decision one to keep an eye on with that price that rate cut priced in I think that could be really the tone for the rest of the week if they were to make a surprise and keep rates on hold well yes stocks will come down but in my opinion I think that would probably be the better decision for things to do I don't think the rate cut at the moment would be too good going into the back end of the week obviously with it being non-farm payrolls on Friday you're going to have the ADP on the Wednesday you've got Vienna OPEC meeting starting on Thursday as well that's day one of day two so quite a quite any interesting week from a data point of view let alone with the coronavirus fears that are you know shaping the market as well other headlines just to run through North Korea marks a year of failed Trump talks with missiles so as if we didn't need any more issues in the world at the moment North Korea launching two unidentified projectiles of its eastern coast South Korea's defense ministry said so we have whether Trump wants to come out and say anything about that would also be pretty key the polls whether really the election in the US is starting to just heat up a bit a few people last week were saying one of the main reasons that we were also coming lower and stocks more aggressively was because of the Sanders and his increased chance of actually getting into the White House potential for that to increase this week see how he does in some of the polling and if if Sanders does start to get more of a foothold and Trump's you know naivety with the coronavirus catches up with him we could well see stocks come lower as well so yes it's a very good start this morning for you know stocks in the US in Europe but I would just be careful about getting too carried away there's that famous dead cat bounce saying I think we all need to to be aware of but at the moment a couple of days positive after one two three four five six down days for the S&P I would say technically looking at this trade to the upside the main level I'm keeping an eye on is that 30 68 such good support back in November and December last year and then that could obviously or act as a very key resistance level above there you'd have got to imagine the central bank to have cut rates and maybe the the spreading of the virus has just subsided a touch back to headlines you've got obviously the the brexit talks continuing here and and last week the UK outlines objective for US trade talks were 4.4 billion so quite hawkish rhetoric between the two of of the UK and EU there's been you know rumors that brexit talks are about to to break down within 14 days it's going to be a week for certainly on the the pound side of things that's going to be headline driven as well so you know while there could well be some you know nice technical setups for you know the pound I mean looking just here for example Thursday and Friday's low again I would be careful about that risk I wait for that confirmation we've already had and this is comments just from the central bank about doing whatever it takes you know they've got to bear in mind for pound traders that there's also going to be brexit comments that as we know can spike you out of positions pretty quickly so just be careful is what I would say when trading the pound equities as well it's going to be following the similar suit to last week where the mornings are relatively choppy I would say and then it's into the afternoon once the Americans have woken up then you'll get in those to follow through or there's been new cases here and there and that's the focus I mean we know it's spread here in Europe we know Italy is you know struggling you know as a South Korea of course in Asia but in the US I think from a opportunity to see this reverse we're going to need to see those numbers pick up in the US and what times do they get released well four four thirty five o'clock UK time either the US sort of morning into lunchtime so just because we have a good morning doesn't guarantee that the afternoon is going to be similar so that's just something I would bear in mind quick look over the calendar before we have a look over some of the technical setups we go through the morning you've got to see that German data 855 the market manufacturing at nine o'clock both of those numbers expected to be in contraction territory again 47.8 for Germany 49.1 from the EU sorry and then you've got the UK market manufacturing at 930 US numbers at 2 o'clock and 3 o'clock a couple of well one speaker scheduled but as we know central banks will most likely make these comments throughout the day as well quick look over technically I brought the pound into play here for me that's your your key line in the sand I think actually from an opportunities point of view we can get back above that level I don't see any reason why we can't then push to the the high that we had on Friday I know following that Bank of England comment we're now a fair way off that but that would be the key level for me to the downside if we were to see further weakness on the pound side of things you can see now we're trading I mean this is quite a nice level here the high that we had on the 11th of October could that be the low I'd you know I'd say that's a there's a pretty good case for it to be if that was to hold then suddenly 127 could come in and then also I'm liking the look of this level 126 24 but if we can get above last Monday's high I think the pound could have a bit of a rally from a technical point of view the euro has been pushing higher recently on the the dovish bets of the Federal Reserve levels to be aware of I mean if you could give me this point here 111 29 a couple of weeks ago a bit in your hand off for it now we're coming up it's perhaps starting to get a bit worry but here you can just see just the importance of this point you want to line in the sand again that's a pretty good one to have to the downside if you were waiting for maybe some confirmation of some dollar strength to come back in or euro weakness I think really below 110 24 would be how I'd be looking to play that put it on a lower time frame let's put the pivots on here you can see then you've got that range the pivot coming in for there and the R2 to the upside we're just pushing two new highs this morning as the dollar weakens stocks gone over the level in the s&p you can see today's are one pretty important we had some support there on on Thursday marks up quite nicely and also you've got the previous high of the day that we broke through around 745 8 o'clock that's a good enough point as well we expect some support but if we do get below there things could start to get interesting again oil and stocks are going to have a lot of resistance levels to the upside above where we're trading on these previous lows so just be aware of that and the same thing you know across the pond for the US stocks and obviously the European ones as well any questions as usual please do let us know I would absolutely have a read over ants macro menu I think it's a great addition that you started to do and really can help set up for for the week ahead in summary the central banks are providing a bounce whether it be short term or not will come down to whether they actually do cut rates the rba first on the the hit list tonight and whether that keeps getting priced in also any new cases in the US if that continues to spread and the maybe at a more alarming rate this bounce would be perhaps pretty short lived oil got to keep an eye of course later in the week on OPEC and the pounds for any brexit related comments it's expected to be a pretty interesting week whether it can top last one or not I'm not too sure but I hope you'll have a good one and any questions as usual please do let us know