 This is Covering the Spread, part of the FanDuel Podcast Network. We have nine game slates in both the NBA and the NHL for tonight's national TV games. NHL trade deadline just around the corner, so it is a fantastic time to bring on top Vecchio and pick his brain on NBA and NHL for tonight at FanDuel Sportsbook. This is Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and FanDuel Research. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for FanDuel Research. Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio. Check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one. Find his work over on the Daily ISO or Daily NBA betting and DFS podcast on the FanDuel Research podcast feed. Tom, happy Tuesday. How's it going? I'm doing great. Yeah. Super big slate for both NBA and NHL. It is absolutely crunch time for both of these sports. This is not the time to mess around for anything. So changing random rotations in NBA or NHL. Time to trust the main guys. Stick with that and we should be in a good spot. And it means a good product in front of us as well, which is always delightful too. Probably a bit less volatile in the prop market as well. So everyone wins and we'll get to watch some fun sporting events across tonight. We'll talk to Tom to break down his favorite bets across the NBA and the NHL in just one second. But first, a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread. Wherever you get your podcast, just search for a covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. If you like what you're hearing, let's say five star rating on Apple podcasts or Spotify. You can also find this show on the FanDuel YouTube page and on FanDuel TV plus. Get buckets with your first bet on FanDuel America's number one sports book because right now new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet. 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Visit MD gambling health Oregon Maryland 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call you 100-327-5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-70 or text open Y in New York. Tom, let's start things off in the NBA. Couple of TNT games for tonight. We got the Celtics at the Cavs. That one should be a delight. And then the Suns of the Nuggets. Two really fun games. Which best stand out to you in those games right now at FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's start with the Celtics and the Cavs. And let's there's actually two reasons why I'm targeting Jason Tatum revounds plus assists tonight. It's at 13 and a half. We have Jalen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis. Both listed as questionable for the Celtics. So simply and Tatum is already a high usage player to begin with. So seeing him do a little bit extra here or there is not going to be a surprise. So if Porzingis is out, it should be out for it starting. But because the Cavs have Evan Mobley and Jared Allen, two great rebounders, Tatum has always shown like he has the onuses on him to do a little bit more. So an opportunity thing will be increased for Tatum, but also given the fact that these are two very, very good defensive teams. And not to mention, as I said, the Cavs are very good at rebounding. So to see this trend towards the under and see a lot of missed shots because the tough defense and therefore we see more rebounds because of the defense, Tatum should just naturally be in a spot because of the defensive matchup to just have more rebounds overall. So it's kind of a dual approach where Porzingis is out, someone has to step up and do more rebounds. And then also the game environment with these two tough defense, it shouldn't actually tend itself more towards rebounding missed shots. Kind of an, I don't want to say an ugly game, but like a playoff type game that it's not going to be 130 to 120. All right. So Jason Tatum rebounds plus assist at Fandall Sportsbook. The over is minus 122. That number is at 13 and a half right now. For Jason Tatum, minus 122. That sounds like it's moved a bit since you looked at it earlier on. Is that still a value to you right now? Yeah, definitely not 14 and a half and not past 135. Okay. So still a value right now, but keep close tabs on that one as the evening progresses. Other TNT game for tonight is the Suns and the Nuggets right now at Fandall Sportsbook. Nuggets favorite by nine and a half in this one. What are you seeing in this one, Tom? Devon Booker is out for the Suns and that lends Bradley Beal to be in a good spot. Over 18 and a half points minus 128. This is clearly a usage thing. His field goals, his three-point attempts, his overall usage just increase obviously when Booker is off the court. His first two games back. First game back does a whole lot of nothing in the grand scheme of things just because they were fully healthy. Booker gets hurt. All of a sudden he goes for 31 points. So we have to be trusting the Nuggets to stick with their main guys. As much as they do have a good rotation of players, it's about Durant and Beal tonight. If they want to have a shot at taking down a very good Nuggets team. So Durant's number is just a touch too high for me. Beal at 18 and a half saying a minus 128. Over at Fandall Research, we have projections of him going for close to 21. I like Beal tonight over 18 and a half. I will also say there's a secondary play for the three-point props for Royce O'Neill. It's not posted. I haven't seen it anywhere. But Royce O'Neill has hit at least three threes in four straight games. And he's always been a great 3 and D guy. So now with Booker off the court, he should continue taking those threes. I just don't know where the market is. Okay. So we'll see where the market comes in on Royce O'Neill for the made threes category at Fandall Sportsbook. It is not posted as if he had as Tom mentioned. But it sounds like he's heating a bit outside, getting more users than though Devon Booker. But the one that Tom does like right now is Bradley Beal over 18 and a half points minus 128. And Tom, the good company, got at the plug for the projections over at Fandall Research as well. So those are two games, Tom. We have seven other games across the NBA for tonight. Which are the player props stand out to you with where things stand right now? Let's go to the Raptors. They are at home, 9 point underdogs versus the Pelicans as solid as the Pelicans are overall as a team. They actually struggle a little bit, allowing three pointers, 24th in a league, just over 13 threes per game from their opponents. Scotty Barnes is likely done for the year for the Raptors. They're high usage players. So the three point market for Gary Trent over two and a half threes is sitting at plus 100. It was plus 102 right when I started the daily. So I think this is fine at plus 100. He takes a high volume of three point shots. That's mainly what he does while RJ Barrett and Manuel quickly should be the primary shooters for the Raptors. Gary Trent still plays a very solid role. He's been shooting threes, whether it was in Portland. It doesn't matter where he is and he's been known to do this. So, you know, as much as I said, we should be trusting like the main guys for teams. This is an opportunity thing because Scotty Barnes is out of the lineup and two and a half for a player that's routinely taking seven, eight, nine threes per game is very viable. And the main players component is fluid based on who's available. And with the Raptors not having that being at full strength right now, Trent may not be like a main character yet on that roster, but he becomes more of a focal point in that situation. Correct. And yeah, the Raptors are the best team in the league, of course not. They're probably not going to make the play in at all. But at two and a half at even money, I will take it for a player that can routinely push towards 16 or so points, the majority that coming from threes. All right, that's for the Pelicans Raptors. Gary Trent over two and a half made threes, even money right now, if you're into a sportsbook, any other props you're targeting for tonight, Tom? Yeah, only one. And that would be careering for the Mavericks over 37 and a half, PRA minus 111 or was just a little while ago. Raptors are on a excuse me, not the Raptors. Mavericks are on a two game losing streak, Pacers on a two game losing streak, surprise, surprise, high overrun during this game. It's 37 and a half. Luke is listed as questionable. And I said it's 38 and a half now. Okay, so Luke is listed as questionable. He has not missed any games recently. So that's just one thing. But if he gets ruled out that that number is not going to stay there. That's number one. Number two, when we look back at Kyrie Irving's game logs, this side of the all star break, he's taking 18, 22, 24, 20, 23 and 20 field goal attempts. So he's pushing to 29 or 30 points with Luca in the lineup. And he's getting close to a PRA line by points alone. So when we're dealing with a PASER game to 46 overrunder and the potential for Luca to miss, I want to jump in on this number now before it moves. Not to mention the fact that the maps just simply need to win this game. Right. So right now that number 38 and a half at minus 104. So we have seen some movement towards the over here with this Irving PRA bet. 38 and a half is a full notch above where it was before. Now, maybe that could be the odds of Don Chit sitting could be increasing potentially something like that. But where does this number have to settle in before you decide to pass? If we assume that that Luca stays questionable for the time being, I wouldn't play it at 39. Okay. And that's what it comes down to. When you see 29, 29, 30, 29 and 28 points just in this stretch of games with Luca in, that's awesome. And he always can add in the assist, dish in the ball around. But at 39, just based on the variability of how the Mavericks have been struggling, that is where it gets into question for me. Okay. So keep close tabs on this Kyrie Irving market. Be picky with it. Should it move even more over 38 and a half is minus 104 right now. Fandals sports books of Tom does like that for now, but check back on that later. Tom is liking Jason Tatum rebounds plus assist over 13 and a half minus 122. Bradley Beale over 18 and a points minus 128. Gary Trent over two and a half made threes even money. And then Kyrie Irving for 38 and a half PRA that is minus 104. Let's talk some NHL, Tom. Oh, did I miss one? No, no. Okay. I'm sure I thought I missed one for a second. But anyway, let's talk some NHL. And the trade deadline is rapidly approaching. That's coming up this week. And we know in the NBA, that leads to chaos. And for the NHL, obviously, it's not quite as big of an issue. And we talked about the trade deadline with you earlier on. You said it might be a lot of role players who are on the move. Role players won't shift markets as dramatically as the star player, but they can still impact the viability of a team when it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs where every edge does matter. So any futures you want to look at right now before we get to the trade deadline this week? Yeah. So if you bring up the either the Stanley Cup odds or the Western Conference odds, I think how we approach a team like Vancouver is really interesting. And we have seen actually just last night, we saw some players actually sit out for some teams from Seattle, Alexander, Wenberg to be specific. So if you look at either the West or the Stanley Cup odds, if you scroll to the top just to show where Vancouver is relative, I can't get them on the screen. Vancouver is kind of like this second tier team realistically, right? How many points do you think Vancouver has? Or where do you think? Okay, so Vancouver right now has the most points in the Western Conference, right? And they have the third most points overall in the league, which is a bit of a surprise to see them fifth to win the West. So Vancouver has gone through all these ups and downs where they start off extremely hot and then they go like two and eight over the next 10 and then they're super hot and then they're super cold and then they're kind of in the middle right now. So my point being with Vancouver is if other teams around them like Edmonton, like Colorado make more moves, specifically Edmonton potentially getting Jake Gensel from Pittsburgh or the ABS picking up another center, Vancouver's odds are not going to get better, they're going to get worse. But they still lead the conference. So if that number drops to closer to 10 to 1 for Vancouver, that's where I'll have interest in them winning the West. As I said, they've been a roller coaster this year, super hot, super cold. But if they get to the playoffs and they hit a super hot streak just based on it being hockey and the variability, that actually presents a lot of value at 10 to 1. They're also not on the same side of the bracket as Colorado, Dallas and Winnipeg, and they would only have to face one of them if they make it to the conference finals. So the teams ahead of them are going to cannibalize each other just because they have to get to the conference finals in Vancouver. If they run hot, basically, they have an easier path than the odds would suggest. Are there any major holes in Vancouver they could patch up heading in this trade deadline or they're just kind of like a good depth team? They made a great move like a month ago, getting Elias Lindholm from Calgary, and they're just running cold right now. That's all they have a super solid team. Thatcher Demko could win the Vesna if it weren't for Conor Heljevuk from the Jets. They have great defense. They have all the pieces. It's just like, why are they not putting it together every single night? It's just like they go two and eight, and then they're seven and three in their next 10 and it's just all over the place. But because it's hockey, that variability does, I think, present an opportunity. Which version of Vancouver do you think is more legitimate? The cold version we've seen recently, because they've had the hot streaks as well, where do they actually settle in from a true team strength? Because obviously, they're not sacrificed in those points. They get to keep the points they earned on the hot streaks regardless. Those are baked in no matter what, but what do you think the true team strength of them is when it all boils down? Leading the conference, being the best team in the conference. I don't think that's what it is. I would take, as I've talked about Dallas plenty of times, I would take Dallas and Colorado ahead of them. They would probably be tied for third alongside Edmonton. So they are a good team. Do they have that eliteness? Do they have the experience to win in the playoffs? Maybe not. But again, if they run hot, anything can happen in the playoffs. And again, as you mentioned, the bracket plays well for them with Dallas and Winnipeg being the opposing sides. Even though you like them more, it's not teams they would face until pretty far down the line. So keep tabs on the Canucks. See how things play out as we get to the deadline on Friday. If their odds do lengthen at that point, maybe that could be a point to buy into them specifically to win the Western Conference. Currently, a 6-2-1, a Fandall Sportsbook with some potential for better odds later on. Let's shift focus now and talk about the slate for tonight. Nine games in the NHL, Tom. Let's start with the traditional markets. Where are you seeing value when it comes to spreads, money lines, totals? So I have one pick now and one lean, which we based on game. So let's go to Winnipeg, who we just spoke about. They're taking on Seattle. Seattle's on the second of a back-to-back. As I mentioned, for Seattle, they held out Alexander Wenberg last night because he's almost certainly going to be traded. There's also speculation that they could be trading Jordan Eberle, one of their other top forwards. So I like Winnipeg to win in regulation at minus 120. The money line is where it should be. Obviously, Winnipeg is very good elite defense. That's why we see a 5.5 over-under. But if they already held out Wenberg last night and they choose to hold out Eberle, their team who's just a middle-of-the-road team to begin with is just going to be that much weaker against a team that is just factually better. So at minus 120, 20 in regulation is very fair for the Jets. If we get news that they're going to absolutely hold out these players again, that number's not going to stay there. I wouldn't be surprised to see the line move to minus 200 overall in the regular money line. And therefore, the three-way money line would also be impacted. So minus 120 on the Jets right now. That's for the 60-minute money line, for the traditional money line, for Winnipeg minus 178. But as Tom mentioned, should we get news on Seattle later on? That number could shift if they do decide to sit some players once again. You mentioned there was a potential lean that you could be looking towards elsewhere. What was that one? That's with Pittsburgh. And the money line is absolutely fair for where they are at home, minus 235. Blue Jacks on the second night, but back to back. As I said, this is not the time to mess around. Pittsburgh are fighting for every single point that they can get right now. They're really not in a great spot for the playoffs. But this is not a matchup they should be losing. So I don't have interest in the money line. I don't have interest in the puck line. I don't have interest in the three-way money line. I have interest if this game starts off super slow and it's tied or the Blue Jackets maybe jump out to a lead. It's one-nothing. Penguin's live money line at about minus 150. That's where I have interest. So the penguins are a better team. They should win this game. So if we can get a live line at 00 heading into the second and things are changing, whatever it might be, minus 150 or better. Now, let's say hypothetically, they get in a hole because that's the other situation that can lead to dramatic switches in the money line. Do you know Faith and Pittsburgh's offense to make up a deficit should they fall behind early on in this game? Well, I'm talking about penguins and their offense struggling overall. They have an awesome defense and their top five in the league for a few as it goes along. Their offense is not there also with missing Jake Ensel, who's injured even though he still might be traded, is not great. If I'm watching the game and I see that they're actually getting a ton of chances, but they're not scoring, that is where I'll have interest in them. If they're actually just playing terribly, I wouldn't have interest in them. But if it's tied at minus 150, that's a different story. Okay. So the Pittsburgh money line right now is minus 235. But keep an eye if you're able to watch that blue jacket scheme. Keep tabs on things. You have Pittsburgh's offense of doing it. If you do get a better money line later on, if it's a nothing, nothing game, something like that, then maybe that could be the time to buy into Pittsburgh. Let's talk some player props. Tom, what you seeing there across the NHL for tonight? Let's stay in that same game. Trusting the same guys, Sidney Crosby. He's minus 105 for a goal. No, thank you. Crosby though, over three and a half shots at minus 102 is the first spot. Again, super simple. They have to win this game, because if they don't win these games this week, they actually should be selling at the deadline, which is a tough thing to do with Crosby. So Crosby over three and a half shots at sitting at minus 102. The points market is not posted on the Fandals Sports Book. If you look across the industry, Crosby over one and a half points, plus 154. That is a spot that I love. But the blue jackets are not a good defensive team. They just aren't. And they've made some changes to their lineup. Do they look a little bit better on offense? Sure. I've written about them and Kuro Marchenko and Diego Archenikov over these past few weeks, because they're actually looking somewhat capable on offense. Their defense is still terrible. So Crosby and the Penguins needing to win this game means that Crosby is going to be double shifted on power plays, whatever it might be, over one and a half points if you can get that market, that plus 154 across the industry. Sidney Crosby is still chugging, trying to will this team towards the playoffs. He's having an awesome seed and that's part of the disappointment is he's having a great year and they are not going to waste that. Right. So they have to win these games or they need to sell. Yeah. So Crosby over three and a half shots, minus 102 at the points market does go up at Fandals Sports Book. Tom Luggs over one and a half, plus 150 somewhere in that range, potentially could be a good market to buy into Crosby there as well. What other player props are you eyeing elsewhere, Tom? You got two more. One would be the late game with Dallas at San Jose, four 10 road favorites Dallas's. And now we saw the Aves last week, road favorites versus Chicago. They're also roughly there about 300 minus 300. If we go to the any time goal market for Dallas, it is dramatically different than what we saw with the Aves last week. McKinnon and Ranton were minus 120, minus 110. So we have a team that is a massive, massive favorite. Yet their first goal source at plus 155. So we actually drop a little bit further down to Mac Duchain at plus 195 for a goal. Duchain is having a fantastic season for the stars. He's doing it all on a one year contract, proving it high volume shooter hasn't scored in the recent set of games. The money line would indicate how bad San Jose is goals against shot attempts against high danger chance against you name it. So I will take a player on the second forward line, first power play who has this high volume, they're expected to win. And he's also due for some positive regression when when we're seeing three, four shots on goal and he's not scoring. So I want to like, what's the word? I want to like, compare this to the Aves last week where it's like, yeah, we're not betting minus 120 for a goal, but we actually have a similar situation where we can get, I'm gonna say an awesome number of plus 25 when the money line is essentially the same. That's again for Matt Duchain in the stars versus sharks game. Anytime goal square for Duchain at plus 195 in a game where it's a team we trust in Dallas. We talked a lot about them throughout this entire year, a team we don't trust in the sharks in a good match up here where we expect Dallas to pour in some points and Duchain to be a big part of that. So plus 195 for a goal for him. What's the other prop you're liking for tonight? That would be the Islanders with Brock Nelson over two and a half shots. It's only minus 120. I'm talking about the Islanders where they went through this coaching change. They've actually been playing significantly better compared to where they were earlier in the season. The Blues, second item of a back to back. The Blues over the last two weeks, they're running the sixth most total shot attempts per 60 minutes in five to five situations. It went up to three and a half, Tom. I got bad news. Three and a half. It's plus 112 over three and a half. Let me check out the to get two plus shots or the to get three plus shots for Nelson minus 235. What happened? It was it was a two and a half minus 120. Well, how did this happen? What is how are we going to do this on the fly? What is I mean, can you check for? I mean, Horvath and Barzel, what would be for four plus for Horvath and Barzel? Horvath is plus 132 to get four plus and Barzel is plus 136. Nelson's plus 112. What in the world happened to this market? That's a good question. I mean, these are all fair numbers and the Nelson one stood stood out to me. Sure. I guess it's good that it stood out, you know, clearly other others agreed. And unfortunately for us, they agreed too soon. I think it might just be a stay away now. Yeah. But I mean, if across the industry, if you can find it at two and a half, that would be the spot to go. As I said, Blue Jackets second, I would back to back the rowing the six most total shot attempts for 60 minutes over the last two weeks. Nelson has been playing and again, the Islanders overall have been playing super solid. So I would look to Brock Nelson if you can find him at two and a half. Yeah. But other than that, I guess it's a I guess we missed the boat here. For Horvath and Barzel for four plus shots, how generous would that need to be to entice you? Are we talking like plus 150 to be like a fair number there where you'd actually be willing to fire? How far do we need to go before you're actually willing to look at that? They're nearly identical, right? They play on the same line. Horvath has 33 shots in the last 10 games. Barzel is 34. First forward line, first power play, they're both the same. I mean, if it's a literal coin flip, I would just take Barzela plus 136 instead of plus 132. And yeah, if some other book has them reversed, I would just shoot the opposite. Okay. So hold off for now. See if you can get a better number on Barzela Horvath at some point and maybe Nelson lagging behind elsewhere. See if you can take advantage of that at some point. But the ones that Tom is eyeing for tonight, Winnipeg to win a regulation at minus 120, like Sydney Crosby were three and a half shots minus 102, Crosby potentially were one and a half points plus 154. Somewhere in that range, you can find that he would like that. And then that to Shane for a goal plus 195. That is Tom Vecchio. Make sure you check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one find his NBA player props every day on the daily ISO on the fan dual research podcast feed. Tom, thank you as always swinging by the light to talk to you. Good luck tonight. We'll talk to you again soon. Thanks for having me. All right, you can find Tom on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one. I am on Twitter at Jim Saunders. You can find me on threads at Jim dot Saunders and check out fan dual research on Twitter at fan dual research. Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across Tuesday. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow talking F one in Saudi Arabia and my favorite and they'll be futures for the 2024 season. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network.