 Mae'n ddweud, dywedodd yn fawr, mae'n ddweud, mae'n ddweud, mae'n ddweud, mae'n ddweud, mae'n ddweud, mae'n ddweud. Mae'n ddweud gweithio'r gwaith ymlaen nhw, oedd eu gweld yn fawr sydd yn fawr. Mae'n ddweud yn fawr o'r llefion yn ymddangosol, yn ysgol yn Dweudio'r Merthyr. Yn ddweud, gallwch yn rhoi i ddweud eich FFIA oherwydd yma i ddiwyngu'r gweithio, ond ei gynhyrch yn cael ei ddechrau i'r ddweud i'r byth? Fi'n rhai hynny'r llan o'r ddweud diwrnod, dyna hi fyddwch yn sylwg ar hyn. Ond rwy'n meddwl i'n meddwl i'r i-AEA a ddweud o arddangos o'r ysgrifennu i'r tarwm. Rwy'n meddwl i'r meddwl i'r drosod a wneud fy mhio gweithgafor i'r llan o'r llan o'r eich ddweud i'r syniad ysgrifennu. Ond ydych chi'n gwneud yn mynd i'r unrhyw unig ac yn ydw i'n mynd i'r hyn o'r Brexit yng nghymru, ond o'r cyfrifodau yn ymddugol. Felly, rwy'n gynllun yma yma yma yma y Nr 35 yn ysgriffyddiadau a'r ddudodau o'r Dwylliannol a'r Europion James Joyce, ac rwy'n gweithio i'r cwerthon ar y dyfodol i'r ffordd unrhyw yw'r man. Felly, rwy'n gweithio i'r braf, gyda chi'n gwneud oedd ymlaen i'r ffordd. Felly, oes yn ymlaen i'r ffordd, ymlaen i'r ffordd ymlaen i'r ffordd. Mae gennym ni'n gweithio, mae'r Prif Weinidog yn ymddangos o'r cyfrifodau ymlaen i'r ffordd, mae'r ffordd yn ymlaen i'r eu ffordd. Mae'r ffordd yn cael ei gweithio'r busnes, a'r Unedig i'r Unedig i'r Unedig, ond yn ymlaen i'r ffordd. ac yn ymdeg, ysgolwch ei ei eistedd ymddefnyddiad ac yn ddod o'i siŵr o'r ysgolwch hefyd, rydym ni'n blaen nhw'n cyflwyno ymdeg o'r cwestiynau gweithio'r cwestiynau, cwestiwn o'r cwestiynau yn ddod, yn ymdeg, ac yn y ddod, yn ei gweithio'r cyflwyno yn ddod. Cyfrifwyr ymdeg ychydig, cyfrifwyr ar gyfer y referendwm, ymdeg ar gyfer prosesu bryddoedd hunain, gwrthau, ac yn ymdeg. Y cyfnod ychydig o'r brosbeidio ar gyfer gennaeth a chyfnod o'r sgol yn Tawr Hamlets yn Llywodraeth, oedd o'r chyfnod o'r rhannu o'r rhannu, ac yn ffartigol o'r rôl o'r cyfnod o'r debatio. Mae'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r Rhannu, Ierlen a'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r rhannu a'r cyfnod o'r rhannu o'r rhannu o'r cyfnod o'r rhannu. In fact, the EU itself was a project devised by a travelling French conic salesmen, a project furthered by coal and steel firms in the original six member states, which eventually grew into the single market for European goods and services, covering 22 million companies and 500 million people. Even the morning after the EU won the Nobel peace prize ysgolwyd yn 12 oed, y mewn Gweinwyr 2012, y Gweinwyr hefyd yr Adegwyr wedi gyfnod, y byddai'r idea o'r dros y rhain yn cerddol Cymru yn ymddangos. Mae'r ffrinddur wedi gweld gweld o'r ysgolwyd yn ymwysgol a'r alwadol, ac y dylai'r gyfer yng Nghaerfod Jyrgyn Gweinwyr yn Bargynwynau at Monopri. On respects the 190,000 British businesses I represent as Cebu I President think of the EU? So when the 1030 referendum came to be we consulted with their membership to understand their views. We held over 100 consultation events across the UK and conducted a survey asking their opinions. Alongside Economic Analysis by McKinsey, mae'r gwybodaeth yma yn ysgolwg ymgyrch yn y CBI i'r newid yn 2013. Mae'r gwybod y cyfnod yng nghymru yn ysgolwg Oedden, yn ymgyrch yn y Uniau Euripod a'r ffordd, i'r gweithio, mae'n ddweud y gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. First, mae'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. And these benefits are of course felt in Ireland as they are in the UK. They mentioned tariff free access to the single market of more than 500 million customers. For every Irish customer out there on the street of Dublin, the single market gives firm access to over 100 additional European customers. Easy movement of skill labour was another big benefit. Almost 6% of the UK workforce is from Europe, including 163,000 at least from Ireland, while 115,000 UK nationals live and work here in Ireland. With more than half of CBI members citing concerns about plugging skill gaps, access to a wider pool of talent is a vital necessity for any successful business. The single market also acts as a magnet for global investment. Single market access is the most commonly cited reason for investing in the UK, with almost three and four investors saying that the single market is really important to the UK's attractiveness. And Europe is our passport to world of opportunity to trade in every corner of the globe. The weight of more than 500 million citizens gives us a stronger hand when negotiating easy access to the rest of the world for British companies, helping us to be part of greater numbers of better quality deals. Canada and Australia have preferential trade access to 15 non-EU countries. Switzerland has preferential trade access to 38 non-EU countries, 36 of which were negotiated through the EFTA trading bloc. Yet through EU trade deals, the UK and Ireland have preferential access to more than 50 countries outside the EU. And the EU gets better deals too. In the year after the EU trade deal with South Korea, UK exports the country rose by more than a half, hitting their highest level ever at more than £6 billion. This year, five years after the EU South Korea deal entered into force, almost 99% of all tariffs will have been removed. Yet Australia will have to wait almost 20 years after their deal entered into force to reach this goal, almost four times as long as the EU. So it's clear that EU membership brings many benefits. But CBI members were also very clear that they wanted reform to help the EU become more competitive, working better for firms in the UK and across the continent. In particular, a necessary red tape and excessive regulation remains a headache, especially for smaller businesses. Yet, while there's still some way to go, we have started to see signs of change, beginning even before the Prime Minister's renegotiation. For example, through the European Commission's Better Regulation Agenda, we've seen 314 new initiatives in 2010 reduced to just 23 this year and last, a reduction of over 90%. The EU also needs to up its game on digital and services. Services in particular are still a gaping hole in the single market. While services make up almost 80% of the UK economy, they constitute just 20% of trade between EU countries. Yet a true digital single market and a single market in services we believe could add about 7% to UK GDP. Here Britain and Ireland need to lead from the front, creating a single market 2.0 within Europe's borders. In the Council's draft offer to the UK published in the first week of February, the EU recognised the need to boost its international co-bediveness in services, in goods and in areas like energy and the single market. By updating the single market for the 21st century, the EU will be building on its biggest strength. But the EU must also be more outward looking. As I've just outlined, EU trade deals are powerful, but we simply just don't have enough of them. Today EU membership covers about 60% of the UK's global trade. Ceiling the deal on all current negotiations would mean the EU and its trade deals would cover 88% of the UK's global trade from Tampa in the west to Tokyo in the east. Although there's still a long way to go, TTIP in particular could boost some of the UK's top sectors. Last year was the best year ever for Britain's automotive industry. There's even a plant in Sunderland which produces more cars every year than in the whole of Italy. What a fantastic achievement. TTIP could make these achievements go into overdrive. It's estimated the UK exports of motor vehicles, for example, could increase by 40%. This alone will be worth 1.6 billion euros. And TTIP's benefits would span both sides of the IRC, a golden opportunity for the Emerald Isle. With almost half of Ireland's non-EU exports go to the US incurring tariffs of 300 million euros a year, the business benefits are clear to see. Beyond this, last year's opening of the trade talks with Commonwealth countries like Australia and New Zealand is encouraging. It just goes to show that it's not a neither or choice between the continent or the Commonwealth. On economic governance, it's clear we need to protect the interests of non-Eurozone countries like the UK as the Eurozone countries integrate further. Britain and Ireland are living proof that those inside and outside the Eurozone can respect each other and work well together. It's clear that Britain wants to see a Europe geared around the single market, not the single currency. George Osborne has recently suggested, for example, that non-Eurozone countries should not be obliged to be part of the financial mechanisms designed for Eurozone countries. The Council's draft proposal two weeks ago set out that the UK would not be liable to bail out Eurozone countries. These proposals will help business feel more comfortable about the EU's direction of travel. If the PM secures his asks on sovereignty as set out in the proposal to strengthen national parliaments, business will also welcome it as progress. They will help the UK to make decisions more responsive to local circumstances. Finally, on the ongoing debate about child benefit and immigration, while the UK economy has benefited from the creation of an EU-wide talent market, it is true that pressure on local services and wider public perception threaten to reduce the legitimacy of a key benefit in the eyes of business. It's important to stress that real reform is an ongoing process, not a single event. And whether digital services or trade deals, we've been actively pushing this reform agenda with our sister federations, including Ibeck, who've been tremendously supportive. And this evening I look forward to speaking at the British Irish Chamber of Commerce annual conference. So there is a vision of tomorrow, a vision of Britain where we continue to enjoy Europe's benefits, while also pushing for reform in areas where Europe can do better. But of course there is another option, and that is to leave. Yet returning to my original question, how do the alternatives offer Britain a better future for jobs, growth and investment? Well, let's take a look and to do this, I thought I'd borrow a phrase from Donald Rumsfeld. There are some known knowns, things we can say with a reliable degree of certainty would happen if Britain withdrew and secured a new deal. Crucially, all the conceivable alternatives to full EU membership would mean less access to the single market. This would have real consequences for our service industry as complete and evolving access to the single market is only open to full EU members. A special UK-EU trade deal would be frozen in time with none of the ongoing updates to move non-tariff barriers which the single market delivers. It's also likely that Brexit would hit some parts of the UK particularly hard. Indeed at the CBI's annual conference in November on Tisha Candy-Kenney cited independent research showing that Northern Ireland would be the most adversely affected UK region in the event of Brexit. And the alternatives to full membership would also have a clear effect not just on the UK but also the Republic of Ireland. In Britain and Europe, the end game, John McGrann noted, the extent of Irish-British connectivity to United Kingdom is such that a potential UK exit from the EU is a risk to investment and employment in Ireland. In other words, when the UK sneezes, Ireland catches gold. And of course it's no surprise trade between UK Ireland stands at one billion euros every week accounting for 30% of imports into Ireland. Ireland is the UK's largest market for food and drink and our second largest market for clothing, fashion and footwear. At the CBI's conference in November, Enda Candy also said that the Irish government's strong view that a Brexit was not in Ireland's economic interest. He referred to research by the ESRI which highlighted that estimates from the literature suggest that a Brexit could reduce bilateral trade flows between Ireland and the UK by 20% or more. And I've spoken to members of the CBI, particularly in the food and drink industry, who experienced delays exporting to and from Norway and Switzerland because their access to the single market is not complete. The alternatives to full membership would also mean less British influence over the rules under which British business would have to operate. The UK would not be represented on the European Council or in the European Parliament and Britain and Ireland would no longer be able to work together to influence European legislation as we do so well at the moment. The alternatives to full membership would also mean a period of dislocation from current free trade agreements with over 50 countries, a third of the world markets by value. On the outside, the UK would have to go back to the drawing board and negotiate any deals from scratch, a real obstruction for British exporters. UK firms trading with countries who have trade deals with the EU like South Korea or South Africa would face real uncertainty. So there are some known knowns, some statements about what would happen in the case of Brexit. But what about the known unknowns, areas where we know we don't know the answer and you'll know there's quite a few questions. The biggest known unknown is what form of relationship will be on the table for Britain and what this might mean for business if we rejected the existing alternatives and tried to hammer out a special British alternative. It's not even clear what legal route the government would seek if the UK did vote to leave. Would it trigger Article 50 straight away or seek to inform and negotiate a withdrawal package outside of Article 50? We just don't know. What timeline would Brexit follow? We don't know, but it's certainly likely to exceed the prescribed two-year timeline for Article 50 proceedings. Switzerland, for example, took nine years to negotiate its first set of bilateral trade agreements. It now has a framework of 120 bilateral trade agreements managed by 27 joint committees, and this doesn't even include trade and services. In fact, senior civil servants in the UK Foreign Office have suggested it could take between 10 and 15 years to write and agree new arrangements. And finally, there are unknown unknowns. The possible damage this uncertainty and lack of clarity might cause. While it's very hard to speculate on this, standard employers have already said they would lower the UK's rating if they conclude Brexit to be likely due to the overall economic uncertainty. Others have claimed that sterling could fall by 20% if Britain votes to leave the EU. And uncertainty about Britain's relationship with the EU could have a number of unintended consequences for investment and supply chains. It could not companies confidence as they think twice for taking on projects, and it could make it difficult for firms to prepare for regulatory changes. For example, EU rules impented quickly in other EU countries can take up to a decade to be implemented in Norway, leaving firms stranded in regulatory limbo. Indeed, Norway has already adopted 75% of EU law, and where the UK to leave, it's expected it would keep 94% of the total cost of EU law to maintain access to the single market. So in short, it's reasonably safe to say that from a business perspective, the existing blueprints for alternatives don't give us a better deal than EU membership. In our view, they just don't stack up. So there are two options, continue to push for a better reformed EU from within, or withdraw in the hope that alternatives offer a better deal. Ultimately, however, the choice of whether to remain or whether to leave will be one for the British people, and it is certainly not our job to tell people how to vote. But what we are doing is what the Prime Minister called on firms to do in his Davos speech in January, and that is to help explain and set the context for this vitally important question. And as you and Ireland know better than most, people vote for a whole range of reasons in a referendum. Reasons to do with identity, to do with security, but also with prosperity. Our job in the CBI will be to inform the debate by presenting the economic evidence for all of the options, presenting the facts in a clear and balanced way and setting out the possible implications for growth, investment, jobs and prosperity. And it's really important to be sure our predictions are accurate, so we can put across the strongest, most credible information that we can. And I think this goes for bodies like the IIEA as much as it does for the CBI. Voters are interested, so let's get it right and show people they can trust us. The Prime Minister has encouraged firms to get out there and start making the case in Europe. Indeed, in my view, businesses have a responsibility to educate, inform and engage. While every company has a different relationship with the EU, it's important for UK boards to start thinking about this issue and understand what the referendum could mean for them. How would a prolonged period of uncertainty affect their company? What would it mean for the supply chains if tariffs were introduced? What would be the consequences of operating under different regulatory regimes for EU and UK markets? And as our friend and closest neighbour and the only country with whom the UK shares a land border, Ireland is uniquely placed to have its say. It's important for the British public to hear from all those with views within the UK and outside it. The most useful thing that Irish companies can do if they do business over the border is to start a conversation with their British employees, customers and suppliers about what the referendum could mean for them. It's only sensible to be prepared and to ask the right questions. Ladies and gentlemen, I started with James Joyce's phrase, I am tomorrow what I established today. So I've described two scenarios for that tomorrow. So which future offers Britain the best chance of prosperity, which future offers the surest path to more British growth investment and jobs. In our view, it's clear the alternatives don't give us a better deal than full EU membership. And we've challenged those who advocate leaving to say which alternative would be better for the British economy growth and jobs. The response of the majority, but not all of CBI members to these questions has consistently been that Britain's prosperity is best served by remaining in a reformed union. Of course that doesn't mean the EU is perfect, far from it. As I mentioned earlier, we've been actively pushing on our reform agenda to improve Europe. And we've been actively doing that with IVEC, not only across Europe, but it's looking particularly at the unique challenges in Northern Ireland. And once the Prime Minister comes back with his package of reforms, we'll ask our membership again for their views on what he has delivered. Based on that steer, we'll put across the CBI position in the months leading up to the referendum. Of course, the business view won't be the only view. People will vote, as I said, for a wide range of reasons, but I do believe the business view is an important one. And we should be proud to make this contribution, and we shouldn't underestimate the impact of our point of view. Whether their views on Europe, whatever their views on Europe, it's important that all firms speak up and give their two cents worth before it's too late. So let's give growth a voice in this debate, giving people the facts they need and deserve to make an informed decision on Britain's future. Many thanks.