 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Maddon. Today's date is Monday the 8th of February 2021 and the time has just gone 9-12 GMT and it's been a fairly positive start to the European trading session At the back end of last week. We had a fairly mixed and a bit disappointing US non-farm payroll support The headline reading came in at 49,000 so 49,000 jobs were created last month pretty much bang in line with the Roger's estimate of 50,000 jobs, but it was well below the 100,000 jobs forecast that Bloomberg survey had shown. In addition to that, the previous month's reading was revised from negative 140,000 to negative 227,000 and with that there became a little concern that perhaps the US economic rebound is running out of a bit of steam On top of that We also had a bit of out of volatility on Friday when it was announced that Robin Hood's the popular trading app with that That's popular with the retail clients particularly in the light of the short servers with the silver squeeze and the volatility seen in GameStop That company came out and removed its restrictions on GameStop So we did see a bit of extra pressure caught on European equity markers at the back end of Friday but things simmer down in that was the latter half of the US trading session and But the view that US politicians are going to potentially push through the 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package proposed by President Biden Was it was it was an overriding theme of the day? So even though we did have some uncertainty and I'm not so hot US job support The S&P 500 close at a record high on Friday night that led to positive positive trading session in Asia overnight and here we are in Europe Mark if the markets are moving higher again Over the weekend we heard from from Johnny Yellen former head of the Fed and now the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that if the if the US US government those participants pursue this 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package it could bring about full employment Next year by the end of next year. So that's really been spurring things on So at the time being the the focus on the US politicians getting through Passing that 1.9 dollar 1.9 trillion dollars stimulus package has been essentially the main focus of the of the past 24 hours or so With that I'll look at the I do the usual one time The usual one time that I know we do I look at the weekend article and then talk about the major markets major indices major currency pairs And major commodities So the weekend article can be found on our website if you got a CMC markets calm under insights under latest news and analysis You know fairly fairly busy enough corporate reporting calendar for as far as the as far as the UK and the US is concerned this week Excuse me tomorrow. We have full your figures out from a cattle via the well-known and clearly popular online grocery grocery company We'll have fourth quarter numbers coming out tomorrow ice from Twitter People would be looking up for any kind of Guidances are in relation to how they're doing how they're doing in terms of revenue and any kind of concerns the company may have made Two potential changes in regulation that could be on the horizon for all for social media companies We're gonna have fourth quarter was coming out from Coca-Cola on Wednesday Don Elm what I kind of all kind of successful High Street stories from the UK. They have first half numbers coming out on Wednesday Uber Uber have their fourth quarter numbers coming out on there on Wednesday now, even though they're actually well, they're prop They're a primary business Said she sent you being a rival to a taxi service Uber eats has become very popular in light of a lockdown So it's likely we're going to see that component of the business take off and kind of balance up balance out the the the ride-hailing Service of business after Zeneca. I've also been a focus in light of the Nite of the vaccination. They have fully of numbers coming out on Thursday Disney have first quarter first quarter numbers coming out on Thursday and there's their streaming service Disney plus It's going to be is going to be one of the areas of interest For traders especially seeing as they kind of, you know, the Disney theme parks and the like have also been quite hard on account of the pandemic Ted Baker the fashion house here in the UK. They have the fourth quarter numbers coming out on Thursday And on Friday, we've become a few economic indicators coming out from the UK and the big one is Q4 GDP This is going to be the real question of how things fared in the final quarter of 2020 and keep in mind You know between November and December pretty tough restrictions are in place from much of the UK So it's likely we're going to see a not so impressive reading We also have UK industry and manufacturing production figures coming out from the UK on On Friday morning starting off the first year hundred We can see here at the foot even up one hundred in a multi-month high back in January You had a bit of a bit of a move to the downside and then last week last Monday at a decent move to the upside Very bullish candle at the scene this year last week Monday the 1st of February and since then it's been pushing higher But notice how it struggled to get above that blue line there a fifthly moving average Which comes into play at six thousand five hundred and seventy nine So it's struggling to get above that metric while we hold below that metric It's like it. It's likely that the kind of the near term negative trend Could remain intact while we hold below it But if you do measure get back above the metric that area which is currently seems to be acting as a resistant could potentially act as support and I could Might be used as a springboard to get a head back up towards 6,900 or head back up towards the recent highs Of January at six thousand nine hundred and fifty seven if you do move lower from here on the on the 300 we could look at any back down for this the other line here the one hundred a movie average comes to play at six thousand two hundred and eighty three We can see in a few occasions that active but both both as we can see here A few months ago that the both as support and resistance not that long ago back in August and also and also September So the metric has been important past it makes it more likely it'll be of importance in the future And if you notice where if you notice where the one of the movie average comes into play It's not too far away from the from the lows of last week But it's also not too far away from the lows of late December. So that intent Arizona six thousand three hundred down to around That entire zone of six thousand three hundred down to around I Would you stop down to around the one of the moving average in In a six that it's six thousand two hundred eighty three So that zone of rock in a seventy points could act as a very decent area of support Coming into play starting over on Germany taking a look what's going on the backs So we'd see here The tax been a very positive run You notice the look at the candle that was seen last Monday very bullish indeed the markets been moving higher It's it's comfortably above its faith in a moving average in a thirteen thousand six hundred and fifty one We're basically essentially in kind of you know in or around all-time high territory on the tax The markets clearly in Clearly in good shape if you continue to press on higher from here we could be looking at our going in your fourteen thousand one hundred 200 300 so on and so forth so we will be moving further into On chart of territory in terms of achieving all-time eyes, but the trend is clearly very much to the upside Move to the downside could find support from the fifth and moving average blue line here And if you do even go below that we're gonna get heading back down towards the lows of last of last Monday similar similar story with the With the with the foot three hundred in that even if you do drop below that You could find support from from the water only moving average just south of thirteen thousand two hundred in a thirteen thousand one hundred and ninety eight Because as we saw a few occasions that metric has actually a support in the past to keep an eye for that area Should we have a very decent move to the downside? Looking over in the US US markets are even stronger record highs were proposed very much recently. It looks like we could see When cash trading commences today in the US looks like we could be on for a further record highs We're currently expecting the Dow Jones open at thirty one thousand two hundred and thirty seven So we're still very much in the kind of wide rougher trend We're comfortably above this blue line here the fifth and moving average if you continue to move on higher from here We could be looking at heading up towards thirty one thousand three hundred four hundred five hundred so on and so forth You know, I thought you know the next big number is thirty two thousand away And that's still a fair distance away from here Any moves to the downside support could be found from the 31,000 area And I think you go below that we could look at heading back down for this blue line the fifth and moving average in a thirty thousand four hundred and ninety three And I feel it's only really, you know, if you have a size of break below that could then we be looking heading back down towards thirty thousand Over on the S&P 500 similar scenario whereby once cash trading commences worth, you know, we could easily see an all-time high racked up on the S&P 500 You know, we're currently expecting the the S&P 500 open at three thousand eight hundred ninety seven They're not too far away from three thousand nine hundred And then of course they've obviously to go beyond that we then be achieving even newer all-time highs So they'll put trends that are very much intact Should we see move to the downside it could head back towards three thousand eight hundred I'll back down towards this blue line here of the fifth and moving average unit three thousand seven hundred and fifty And even if you go below that we could be looking at retesting the lows of last week in a three thousand six hundred and sixty four Second markets as you saw there were all fairly quite strong Take a look now what's called major currencies One of the themes that has been kind of on has been recently popular the last few weeks and months is in that whenever there's been Whenever there's been Whenever there has been weakness in equity markets we've sometimes seen the strength in the U.S. dollar because traders Deem it to be a low risk asset that hasn't always been the case but it's something to keep an eye out on And there's all the issues going on as well it's given given the U.S. economy to a kind of rebound In comparison with that of the UK and in comparison with that of the Eurozone The dollar itself has been attracting more funds recently because it seems that the traders have identified That the U.S. economy is going to rebound and kind of reopen sooner than the UK economy or the Eurozone economy That's the kind of the view some traders have been taking and with that we've seen a fairly recently strong U.S. dollar recently So the strength of the dollar has been weakness on the on the on the Euro versus the dollar What we saw here last last Friday this candle here has the potential to be a bullish engulfing And acknowledge how this this rectangle here completely engulfs the previous day's red body, the red rectangle So it could be a sign that the that the recent negative move that we've seen in the last couple of months could be coming to an end And could be turning around so if you do manage to get a push on higher from here we could be looking at targeting this blue line here The fifth of the movie average in at one spot 2145 a movie on that particular towards kind of one spot 22 area And if you go north of that because they've been looking at retesting the kind of two two and a half year high that was seen in early January On the flip side if the market does manage to move lower and if he managed to move lower Carol run itself and if he managed to take off the low seed last Friday because they may looking at having back down towards one spot 1923 This kind of general area here below the late November and a move below that could take us back down towards down around this area here in a one spot 18 So even though we have seen some considerable weakness in Euro dollar we haven't seen that that same situation play out for a pound dollar Because the pound dollar starting to sell up reasonably well it's been moving higher the last few the last few weeks and months Has been terribly strong against the US dollar but keep in mind the dollar itself has been fairly strong But it wasn't that long ago we were at its highest level in well over two years on pound dollar So pound dollar here clearly has continued in this overall uptrend As currently trading at one spot 30 sorry one spot 30709 If you look to move on higher from here and if you look at a broad bullish trend that the last few months continues We could be looking at targeting one spot 40 that would be the next big number to let go forward to the upside If you do manage to pull back we could buy support from this blue line the fifth of the moving average in a one spot 3541 And we can see how a couple of occasions very nicely in December mid to late December the one on the moving average Acted a support so keep an eye out for that four potential area of support And even if you go below blue line the fifth of the moving average the yellow line the one on the moving average Which as you can see here on a few occasions actually support as well could also provide support Should we have a fairly decent pullback in the pound first of the dollar Turning our attention now to what's going on with the gold market Gold saw a lot of volatility recently it's been kind of trapped around by the movies on starting last week which I come up to in a second But we can see here that the gold market had a multi month high in January But since then we've had a lower low we've had a lower high and another lower low So it seemed to be in a kind of a near term negative trend with gold If you do manage to move lower and if you take off the lows of last last week of last Thursday We could really carry back down to this area here 1764 But if you can manage to hold above the recent load And if you can move to kind of hold above the 1800 mark as we currently in the 1812 If you can hold above 1800 we could look at potentially retesting this zone here in around 1852 It's kind of where the 200 moving average the red line and blue line 50 moving average converge And then if you go beyond that you could find resistance coming to play Excuse me at the yellow line at 1871 The one with the moving average and notice on a few occasions That area acted as a resistance back in October and also again back in December So once again it's a metric has been important past It makes it more likely it'll be of importance in the future Now I'll talk about silver as well in line with the big movie saw about a week ago Silver and a major move to the upside this day last week on the back of the short squeeze that was applied by the retail The whole retail investors targeting it like the target of GameStop The metal hit its highest level since March 2013 on February March 2013 on the back of it But since then quickly the bullishness and the excitement quickly faded out Because future derivative exchanges started increasing the merger requirements So that took the wind out of the sales and kind of calmed down the bulls as a word So we saw a pretty large move to the downside last Tuesday But notice how we're still the very even the lows of last week are still very much above the lows of late January So the reason upward trend in silver is still intact And as long as we hold above say this blue line here the fifth movie average in 25 spot 52 If you can hold above that it's likely because of the broader upward trend Look over the last few months the broader upward trend of the last few months continue I shouldn't be the case because we look at heading back towards the 30 area And even if market turns lower and if you take off the lows of last week and we drop below the The fifth and moving average because of the funding support and the one of the moving average this year So we're still in line here in a 24 spot 84 and a move below that could take us back down to the lows of mid-January in a 24 And lastly coming up to Brent crude oil the cash contract We basically hit essentially in a one year higher or closer to 12 month high on Brent crude It's been a strong upward trend the last few months a number of factors going on here Stockpiles according to the EIA are the lowest levels since March last year On top of that OPEC plus have maintained their production guidance in the near term To be fair they were expected but on the back of the news last week that U.S. policymakers are looking to get a push through President Biden's 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package Without the support of Republicans that's kind of added to the overall kind of bullishness that we see in the oil market And that's why we're seeing oil at a 12 month high you know a one year high for Brent crude cash market If you imagine going to push on higher from here because we're currently just training around $60 a barrel We could be looking at retesting 66 spot 44 the highs of mid-January 2020 highs of mid-January 2020 so that highs ever achieved just over a year ago And if you do manage to pull back from here we could be looking at it back and forth It kind of 56 zone down to around 54 spot 47 like the lows of mid-January so that entire zone And even if you go above all that we could see support going to play from this blue line here the fifth movie average in a 53 spot 10 That's all from me from this video. Thank you for listening. Have a good training week and good luck